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Everything posted by hondo in seattle
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Bills Teammates Rave about Tyrod Taylor
hondo in seattle replied to RyanTalbotBills's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
I agree. We already knew TT was athletic, Freddy confirming it means nothing. Bradham saying TT has been "accurate" is reassuring because TT hasn't been noted for accuracy thus far in his career. But one guy calling him "accurate" doesn't put my worries to rest. I really don't care who QBs the Bills. Listening to Rex and his coaches, it sounds like it truly is an open competition. May the best man win. Obviously, you've never seen me in shorts. -
Freddy.... Some predicted he'd be released. While he won't unseat Shady, he will have a productive season with flashes of Freddy goodness. EJ... I kind of think EJ will win the starting job and perform capably in Roman's offense. Sophomore OL... Could Whaley have whiffed on all three? I think one of them will step and be a be a good starter by the end of the season. Cross my fingers, maybe even two.
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I'm glad you titled the thread Cassel's "Ceiling" because you didn't include any realistic exploration of Cassel's "Floor." Like most every QB, Cassel does better working behind a good OL and I'm not convinced we have one. Maybe Greg Roman will bring out the best of Cassel and he'll produce on par with '08 or '10. Then again maybe we'll see Cassel's "Floor" where he throws twice as many picks as TDs as he did in 2012. Cassel hasn't produced poor seasons solely because he's lacked talent around him. He brings his own shortcomings to the table too. I agree there are reasons to be hopeful. Then again, I find reasons to be hopeful every season. My hardened expectation is that Cassel will be the mediocre QB that he's been most of his career. Given the quality of the rest of the squad, that might be just enough to break the drought.
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Maybe each club has to identify a home-away-from-home. Maybe we'd pick Toronto. And whenever we were scheduled to play a home game in another country (just one game per year), it'd be TO. New England could choose London, England. Dallas might choose Mexico City. Seattle might choose Vancouver, Canada. San Francisco might choose Hong Kong... This would, logistically, be a tough sell but it could be fun to have 32 foreign cities with a home NFL team.
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Extra Point rule has changed
hondo in seattle replied to YoloinOhio's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Rational coaches who have good short yardage offenses should go for the 2 point conversion every time. But most coaches are not rational, they're conservative. So it will be interesting to see how this plays out. This all reminds me of the conversations about "The Coach Who Never Punts." Kevin Kelley is the high school coach who wins championships partly letting math guide his decisions. And he's decided that going for it on 4th down is, statistically speaking, always the better option. According to UC/Berkeley professor, David Romer, no NFL team should punt when facing 4th and 4 or less. Despite all the analyses of likely outcomes, NFL coaches still usually punt. I still believe they're will be a spike in 2 point conversions but the one point PAT kick will still be the norm. http://grantland.com/features/grantland-channel-coach-never-punts/ -
Randy Moss comes up L-A-R-G-E!
hondo in seattle replied to Tipster19's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
The NFL's villains aren't usually as villainous as they're portrayed in the media. Then again, the heroes aren't as virtuous as they're often portrayed either. Hats off to Randy for this! -
Yep, Dareus is a Pro Bowler for a reason - he makes a difference. He'll be missed. But the good news is that he'll be fresh for the Pats game and we know he won't get hurt in the season opener. Furthermore, Rex might change the Indy game plan up a little bit with Dareus out. Belichick might not see on tape exactly how Rex will use his new DLine. Every cloud has silver lining.
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Boobie Dixon chronicles team bowling trip
hondo in seattle replied to YoloinOhio's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
35 years ago, a friend of mine in college said bowling was the "only" thing to do in Buffalo. -
There's been so much talk in the media about how talented the Bills are - except at QB. But I'm with vince... the OL worries me just as much at the QB situation. Everything needs to "break right" and maybe it will. Just maybe.
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I'll take over. I think there's a fair possibility EJ wins the starting job outright. And if he doesn't, I expect him to be #2. Cassel is getting old and perhaps more injury prone than ever. EJ's gonna get some snaps.
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Andre Reed coaching with Bills (intern)
hondo in seattle replied to YoloinOhio's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
I don't know how impactful Andre is as a position coach. But it's got to be good to have a HOFer who's accustomed to going to the playoffs on the coaching staff. And somebody who loves Buffalo and the Bills. -
Chris Williams also not attending workouts at OBD
hondo in seattle replied to scribo's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
It's good to get 100% participation. It shows the players are committed. Even one veteran no-show can plant a seed in a young player's mind that skipping voluntary workouts is okay. At least the two guys missing - Brown and Williams - aren't expected to contribute much anyway. -
Extra Point rule has changed
hondo in seattle replied to YoloinOhio's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
For those who think we won't see a spike in 2 point conversions, think about this. The success for kicks that far out is about 94%. So the expected point total for each PAT kick is .94. The success rate last year for two point conversions was 48%. But since it's for 2 points, the expected point gain is .96. In other words, statistically speaking, the rational decision is to go for the 2 point conversion after every TD except late in a game when 1 point is enough for the win. Of course, the expected points will vary from team to team depending on the comparative quality of their kick game and red zone offense. Here's a good article about the math of the new conversion... http://www.syracuse.com/buffalo-bills/index.ssf/2015/05/math_says_dan_carpenter_buffalo_bills_will_benefit_from_the_nfls_extra-point_rul.html -
Which Bills player did this to JJ Watt?
hondo in seattle replied to YoloinOhio's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Good find indeed. Fred may be old but that was a manly block right there. He really laid into it. So much for the folks who say Fred only made one play last year. While this wasn't a game changing play, it was the kind of play that inspires teammates to sacrifice a little more. Fred's intangibles mean something. Would Shady have made that block? Bryce Brown? -
The press speculates on EJ's future
hondo in seattle replied to truth on hold's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
I think if all 3 QBs look good in camp, they all make the roster. If one of 'em stinks it up, he's gone and we carry just two (not counting Tuel on the PS). -
5-6 WGR interview with Tyrod Taylor
hondo in seattle replied to YoloinOhio's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
I don't think it's decided yet. Right now Rex sees a lot of potential in TT. But if Cassel and/or EJ outplay TT in camp & preseason, TT will not start. Whatever Rex may personally think of Taylor, he's going to trust his eyes and trust his offensive coaches and their recommendations. Given the competition isn't composed of HOFers, it's certainly possible that TT fairly gets the nod. -
What if Tyrod leads us to a Super Bowl win?
hondo in seattle replied to PromoTheRobot's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
I want this problem!!! -
Greg Roman presser: addresses QB rumors
hondo in seattle replied to YoloinOhio's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
I never bought the hype that EJ was on the outs. It doesn't make sense. The Bills don't have a proven starter. Why wouldn't the Bills new coaching staff do their due diligence and take their time to evaluate what they have? Given the QBs on the roster - and the lack of familiarity of these coaches with these QBs - anything other than a truly open competition would be stupid. -
Wayne is spot on. PFF makes a noble attempt to 'statisfy' football but, lacking inside information, will always be doomed to failure. They (PFF) probably do a better job analyzing units (offense, defense, ST) than individuals.
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If you study Brady's stats over the past couple years (YPA, % Comp over 20 yards), it's obvious that he's aging. Just as bad, for him, he can't under-inflate balls anymore and that won't help his confidence or grip. Because the Pats are evolving into more of a running team, as Dorkington mentions, Chandler's reception total will suffer. Then there's the matter of Gronk. If Brady has to throw to a TE, why Chandler instead of Gronk? Clay is going to be a favorite target. Chandler will be a second-thought. I pick Gray in everything as long as Gronk stays healthy and maybe even if he doesn't.
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New Rules - footballs
hondo in seattle replied to BillsFan-4-Ever's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Anyone suggesting no scuffing... .have any of you guys played with new balls? There's a coating on a just-out-of-the-box ball that makes it terribly slick. I don't think the game of football was ever meant to be played with a new slippery ball. Balls have always been broken in. If the NFL stops allowing teams to break balls in, Wilson will have to find a way to make balls that are pre-broken in and not so slick. -
How to stand out? I hate to say it but don't be an idiot. It's amazing how many times media guys get basic facts wrong or just aren't up-to-date with the dynamics of the team. Read every reliable source you can find and ignore the talking heads in the national media who usually have only a cursory understanding of the Bills. More specifically: * Provide us each week with a cogent analysis of our opponent and how we match up. * Break down some All-22 film, something most fans don't have the time or inclination to do. Breaking down Rex and Roman as Yolo suggested would be great. Breaking down the OL or LB corps, for example, as the season develops would be awesome too. * Keep reading TBD. Take the best posts and turn them into articles (with attribution, of course). Once in a while the posts here are pretty insightful though the ideas aren't always fully developed or articulately professionally. Good Luck!