hondo in seattle

Rex is an eternal optimist. I bet he explained that he builds a D around the players, not vice-versa. I'm guessing he saw himself as the architect of some hybrid system that would get the most out of the players on the roster. It didn't work in the end. But Rex probably had a lot of enthusiasm in the beginning.

Donnie Henderson is leaving. There's a big change. Not a good one.

The good news is that I'm going into 2016 with much lower expectations. It will be much harder for Rex to disappoint me this season. Good luck to Donnie!

So who gets cut? And who gets signed?

Rex says... "We’re going to do things much differently next year, and we’re going to be better because of it. In a way, I tried to merge a couple of things, you know, two systems and things like that. And quite honestly, it didn’t work, so we’re going to be all in, we’re going to play Buffalo Bill defense, and we’re not going to be fun to play." What does Rex exactly mean and what are the ramifications?

Favorite Rob Ryan quote - when he was fired by the Saints: "Something had to be done. Right now the defense is ranked 33rd in the league and there's only 32 teams."

You're right. Fixed now.

Kelly, I usually agree with you but I'm not certain that - in this case - Assistant Coach means zero. It may be that Rex wants Rob to have authority over Thurman. In other words, maybe Rex wants Rob to run the D. Rather than demoting Thurman, maybe Rex purposefully gave Rob a more exalted title. Let's remember that Rex did not give Thurman a ringing endorsement at the end of the season. Even if it's not Rex's intent to place Rob over Thurman, it may become the reality. Rob has better access to Rex and a longer, closer relationship. This could become a power struggle. And while Thurman was not impressive in his first year as the Bills DC, I trust Rob to run a good defense even less.

Rob Ryan has been a DC for 12 years in the NFL. On average, his defenses have ranked 22nd in yards allowed. He finished in the bottom half of the NFL 9 of 12 seasons. Oakland 2004 #30 2005 #27 2006 #3 2007 #22 2008 #27 Cleveland 2009 #31 2010 #22 Dallas 2011 #14 2012 #19 New Orleans 2012 #32 2013 #4 2014 #31 2015 #32 (when fired) The defenses he inherited weren't good either. The Raiders were ranked #30 the year before Rob arrived. The Browns #26. The Cowboys #23. The Saints #32. This might suggest he didn't have much talent to work with. But - with the exceptions of 2006 and 2013 - he never did much with the hand he was dealt either. Like most coaches, Rob has strengths and weaknesses. On balance, he made a poor DC. But if Rex finds a way to leverage Rob's strengths and avoid his weaknesses, maybe this can work. Just maybe.

That's why we all want to understand Rob's role. His track record as a DC isn't good. But will he simply be an adviser or role-player with the Bills? Will he have the job, for example, of breaking down opponents' offenses? Will he just be an extra pair of eyes - and extra voice - on the practice field? Will he work mostly the LBs (his job before becoming a DC)? Or - as the "Assistant Head Coach" - will he have real authority to make significant decisions and/or run the D? He's got enough NFL experience, he could probably be an asset in the right role. But his record says de facto DC is probably not the right role for him.

Rob Ryan has been hired four times as a DC. Obviously, he enjoys a decent reputation in the NFL. The NFL is very competitive - to stay employed as a DC for 11 straight years says something about how he's viewed by the league's HCs. His results, however, have been mixed and often just plain bad. Hired four times, fired four times. I think it's safe to say he knows a lot about NFL defenses. But is he a good teacher? A good tactician? I have no idea. I'm curious what role he'll play. I'd be happier if he was hired as a position coach instead of given a vague title. Vague chains of command can be problematic. And the nepotism thing bugs me. How is this perceived by the players? The coaching staff? Will Rex be able to hold his brother accountable? I'll grant there's a possibility that this could all work out. But I voted no, no, no.

Worst football ever played by a Bills QB? There were certainly a few minutes in that game where EJ was pathetically awful. But you either must be young to assert 'worst ever' or have a very short memory. Did you never watch Kay Stephenson line up under center in a Bills uni? Or Gary Marangi? OR Bruce Mathison? Or Joe Dufek? Or Dan Manucci? Or Bryan McClure? Or Willie Totten? Or even the great Brian Brohm? Our franchise has been blessed with truly horrible quarterbacks.

This is a excellent, rational presentation of the pessimist's POV. But I'm not ready to play Chicken Little just yet. We don't know yet what contracts will be renegotiated. We don't know who the cap casualties will be. We don't which free agents we'll sign -or which FAs we'll fail to sign due to cap limitations. We don't know who we're going to draft and how much they'll contribute. It just may be that the 53 who trot out onto the field in September 2016 will be better than the 53 who trotted out in September 2015. And if that's true, you can't say the Bills are inept at managing the cap. I'm not passing judgment on OBD until I see more.

What's the best way to evaluate the Bills cap management? The last couple years, we've signed pretty much everyone we've wanted to sign. We didn't make many drastic cap management moves. So regards 2014 and 2015, I'd have to give the Bills good grades. But have we mortgaged the future with some of the big contracts we've handed out? Let's see how the 2016 offseason plays out. How do you grade an unfinished product?

Yeah, this is very discouraging.

Interesting to read Tyler contradicting Vic. This is funny.

This is a little harsh on baseball but dead-on when it comes to football. It's hard to quantify individual performance when football is such a team sport. Especially when you're a lineman, the play of the guy next to you effects your decision-making and performance. And good coaches make average players look good while bad coaches often make good players look bad. There are probably things football can learn from Moneyball but it can never import the whole package. But that's probably not DePodesta's intent. Curiously, his title is "Chief Strategy Officer." I guess that implies others will be making the more tactical decisions.

I'm more in this camp. Well said, 26CB

I never believed the ultimatum story in the first place for the same reasons. And now Whaley's being extended? As todd says, it doesn't add up. Vic, like a lot of guys in the media, relies on unreliable sources in order to have something to write about. NFL reporting is going the way of the National Enquirer.

Lots of cool, smart guys fail. This is an interesting experiment.

Why do we trust the media? To give one of the more recent examples of media fallibility, PFT recently reported "Chuck Pagano undoubtedly will be fired" if Indy fails to make the playoffs. If fact, his contract was extended. (http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/12/20/whats-next-for-chuck-pagano/) This is the trend in the media covering the NFL. Reporters run wild with speculation and unsubstantiated reports from poorly placed sources. DW is going to be fired, EJ's going to be cut, the Pegulas issue an ultimatum.... why do we listen to this crap?

I'm okay with EJ as a backup. But if there was an opportunity to sign a veteran - a former starter - I'd be in for that. It would be good to have a wily old vet in the QB room and on the sideline, mentoring TT.

I don't believe the conversation happened as portrayed. I know a lot of wealthy business leaders/owners and they rarely talk to their employees like this. It's just not healthy and it's completely unnecessary. If the key people in your company aren't already committed/motivated, why would you employ them in the first place? If people don't perform, you fire them. There's just no need to threaten them ahead of time.

O better than expected. TT a positive surprise. D worse than expected. Rex a negative surprise.

I agree! I'm wishing him well where ever he plays next year.