hondo in seattle

I'm not a big fan of DW. I think he's done a good job with FA. Apparently the pro scouts working for him have some skill. But our college scouting and drafts have been weak. But here's the thing I don't get. Under Rex - who was not a Whaley hire - the Bills were roughly a .500 team. Most of us agree that Rex did a poor job as a HC/DC. Some of us would say 'very poor.' Logic says, then, that if a bad coach delivered a .500-ish record with this team, the roster must have been above average. If the roster (the only thing DW controlled) was indeed above average, how is DW the worst GM in the league??? You can say DW has been bad. You can say Rex was bad. But you can't say both were bad. The average-ish W-L record doesn't support the notion that they both suck.

I hate small sample sizes - the results can be very misleading. I'm pretty sure if you look back at the past 40 years, more good QBs come out of the first round than the second, and more come from the early rounds than the later rounds. The odds get progressively longer the deeper you go into the draft. But even the first round doesn't product sure-fire-hits. You're odds aren't good in the first round but they are better than the later rounds. Hopefully we have good scouts who know what to look for to maximize our chances - but we have no particular reason to believe that. Our college scouting has not been stellar under Whaley. My take is that we should draft a QB every other year until we score a hit.

This has me thinking that the Pegulas should create a "Wall of Fame Advisory Committee." Every living player on the wall will be part of the committee. The Pegulas would meet with the committee 2 or 3 times per year to get their input. Needless to say, there would be no requirement for the Pegulas to follow the recommendations they receive from the committee. The advisory committee would hardly be the Pegulas' only source of advice and information. But it would be another good source and nice way to show respect for Bills alumni.

Interesting story. Good find. There's something admirable and pure about these guys playing for the love of the game rather than the fame & money.

And this is why even professional scouts are wrong so often. Because it's not simple. NFL personnel guys have to blend all this stuff together and then make a prediction as to NFL success. Elements of that prediction include (1) raw talent, (2) work ethic, (3) staying out of trouble, etc. Even talent is a funny thing. Guys might be great at the college level but still fail to develop NFL level skills despite having the measurables. It's like the weather. Despite all science knows about weather systems, professional climatologists are still often wrong in their predictions.

The more I read on TBD, the more I think: Of the millions of different permutations this draft could play out, there isn't even one scenario that would make the majority of Bills fans happy.

Huh? Legal troubles... Knockoff Chinese jerseys... Homeland security coming down on you... Sounds like the bad plot of a screwball comedy.

I'm not sure what people say CJ has a huge ceiling. But I agree with you generally. I think we should draft a QB every other year until we find a franchise QB. I think drafting QBs every year as some advocate is too much for a couple reasons: (1) It's costly - draft picks are precious. We only have so many and there are other needs on the roster. (2) We need to spend some time developing the ones we've already drafted - like Cardale. In my mind, this is an off (non-QB) year. We drafted CJ last year and already have one raw talent to work with as you pointed out. And most scouts seem to think this is a bad year for QBs. But if our scouts disagree with the prevailing wisdom and truly believe in one of these guys, then I'm all for drafting a QB this year.

Yeah, thanks for posting. Good stuff. I'm excited to see him in a Bills uni.

Despite how many times it gets repeated, I don't believe RBs a "dime a dozen." Just like any other position, some RBs are clearly better - and help their team more - than others. RBs are not as valued as they once were. But the talent bell-curve is still the talent bell-curve. And we're blessed with two guys at the right end of it. The KW-MG pattern is either a result of (1) dumb luck, or (2) good RB scouting. I hope it's the latter but fear it's more the former. I personally wouldn't bet on us having continued success drafting talented RBs in the 5th round. When your team doesn't have a lot of good things going for it, you hate to screw up the few things that are working. The Shady-MG combo was awfully effective last year. It produced a lot of yards with a healthy ypc. I'd prefer to keep both of those two.

Put me in that sad club as well. The first game I ever saw on TV was not a Bills game despite growing up in Cheektowaga. It was a Browns game. Maybe 48 years ago. The Brownies were losing to Dallas by something like 14 but came back to win. Bill Nelson, Leroy Kelly, Paul Warfield... I was hooked. Their move to Baltimore weakened the connection but the Browns remain my 2nd favorite NFL team. Clearly I'm cursed. Or I am a curse.

Funny because somewhere - unfortunately I forget where - I heard an NFL personnel guy compare this to the 2013 NFL draft regards to QBs. Clearly you have an opinion. There's no reason to denigrate other people with a different opinion. It's insulting, pointless, unnecessary.

Reading the whole MMQB article makes me feel we need guys like Landry. Landry says: “Coach Gase, he’s flipped the switch with us. New England’s won the division 14 of the last 16 years, something like that? It’s ridiculous. It’s a problem. We cannot let that happen anymore. What I’ve seen is, when we play that game, sometimes we focus on the guys on the other side of the line instead of just focusing on us. And I want to be part of that change. I want to go into the games against New England expecting to win—that’s something we need to do.” King Comments: "If you could have listened to Landry, there wasn’t a speck of disrespect or smack talk about the Patriots. It was a simple statement of fact: This franchise needs, among other things, Gase’s continued attitude adjustment to pass the Patriots."

Yeah, Kirby. There's a bit of a circus act element to this. If Chad's on the roster, he's going to attract attention whether it's from Jimbo, the fans, or whoever. He won't be a typical 3rd string QB. And I think that'll mostly be a bad thing.

Still too young. RIP.

On the field concerns. Off the field concerns. Medical concerns... You're right. Why draft him? But I don't know how much I'd want him as a UDFA. Do you really want Jim calling McD to ask why Chad's not getting enough reps?

I'm not sure why there's a EJ vs. TJ debate here. It was never an either/or choice at OBD. Whaley decided to pass on EJ who was, after all, a FA and not a Bill anymore. That decision left him needing a veteran backup. TJ (despite his mediocre stats) was the obvious choice given his knowledge of Rico's offense. TJ will help Tyrod - and any other QB on the roster - understand the terminology and concepts. There are some other backup QBs out there who could have brought equally mediocre arms. TJ stands out because of the Dennison connection. It's common for HCs, DCs and OCs to want to bring in some guys who understand their scheme to help seed that knowledge with the other players.

On the one hand, I think it would be a classy nod to Jim to draft Chad in the 7th round if he's not gone by then. On the other hand, I don't want Jimbo calling McD to complain about Chad not getting reps in practice. It would truly suck if the Jets or Fins drafted Chad and he surprised everyone by turning out to be as good as his uncle. Seeing that Kelly name on another's jersey throwing TD against us would really hurt. Fortunately, it's not a likely scenario.

Engaged owners are more successful in business than absentee owners. This is so well known in business circles that it's cliche. Terry may have tagged along just to see how the process works. Or because he has friends in the area. Or another business interest. Or some combination of innocuous reasons. Or, as I suggested on another thread, maybe it's part of the Bills "deception plan." At this time of the year, you want to mislead the other 32 teams and as much as possible encourage them to pick players you don't want and not pick players you do want. There is no indication Terry's pretending to know how to scout QBs or telling Whaley who to pick.

One of the sub-paragraphs in a standard army 5 paragraph operations order is dedicated to the "Deception Plan." Every tactical plan should include a deception plan. American soldiers always want the enemy to think we're doing something different than what we're really doing. I imagine some - if not all - NFL teams routinely consider deception planning at this time of year. I don't mean as some ad hoc, haphazard thing. I mean actually planning the best way to send inaccurate messages to the rest of the NFL to encourage other teams to go after players we don't want and avoid players we do want. This is, after all, a multi-billion dollar business and the draft has huge ramifications. Why would you leave the deception-planning stone unturned?

Shady's a good Bill... but a little immature at times.

Holy George Jetson, Astro! I've got to admit you're a much bigger fan than I am - getting into researched speculations about who the Bills will bring in as camp fodder.

I get what you're saying but that's a harsh take on CTE.

I've heard former Raven and Jet players express their love for Rex. I don't sense the same type of love from Bills players. My guess, based admittedly on scant - but consistent - evidence, is that Rex lost his drive and probably did delegate and relax too much during his tenure with the Bills. It wasn't a complete disaster. We might have finished 8-8 if we played Tyrod in the season finale. A number of NFL teams were worse than the Bills. But Rex was not performing at peak and I suspect the players sensed it.

I think we tend to discount articles based on bad sources when they don't fit our own narratives. I think we believe them when they fit the picture we've already formed in our minds. And that, I'm guessing, is what's happening here. I think a lot of us want to believe Rex was a dysfunctional coach because that would imply the talent on the roster was better than 7-9. So maybe McD has enough to work with to lead us to the playoffs. I don't have a high opinion of sport media. I think a writer in NY may indeed considered a BN writer "a well-placed source." If the source was inside the organization, I think he probably would have said so. But, you're right, the source could be a very good one. Maybe a player. I just wouldn't make an assumption one way or the other. There's been other hints that the D was screwed up by too many cooks in the kitchen, players receiving contradictory instructions, etc. So I do think there's probably a core of truth to the article. But I think the 'run of the place' and 'co-head coach' remarks are maybe over the top. But who knows? This would be funny. Rex spreads the story that he fell on his own sword in an effort to save his brothers career. "I love my brother and wanted to give him a chance to reestablish himself." Fraternal loyalty at it's finest! Rex isn't actually a bad coach. He's a selfless, suffering altruist!