hondo in seattle

Did Breer expect to get pushback? Did he expect GMs and scouts to tell him: "No you have it all wrong! Let me show you our draft board and how we expect the draft to play out"? This mock isn't anything special and it neither excites me nor makes me worry. It's just another mock. (Apologies if I missed someone else pointing out the same things).

There are exceptions but I'm mostly a one-guy-for-every-pick kind of fan. Bundling picks to move up is generally a poor strategy. The more picks you have, the better your chances of striking gold. Regardless of what the draft value chart may say, I'd bet that history says the #12 and #22 pick combined net more than say the #6 pick.

Somewhere I read that GMs think this is a particular good draft and not just for QBs. So the problem with going all Ditka is that you're giving up the opportunity to get future Pro Bowlers at other positions just for a chance at getting a franchise QB. My fantasy is that a good QB falls to us at 12 and that guy turns out to be the QB we've long been seeking. Given the spotty success rate of 1st round QBs I'd hate to see us give up much more than this year's two first rounders to move up.

The article wasn't an in-depth, investigative analysis. It was just a couple paragraphs of Rosenthal musing about bad contracts. I don't blame him. People want top-of-mind opinions so the media provides them. But I trust Beane and McD more than Rosenthal. But I also know Beane's not going to get all these signings right. Every contract is a roll of the dice. Beane's staff does all the due diligence they can to shorten the odds but you never truly know how well someone will work out for you.

Exactly right. I think Beane's done an excellent job addressing our needs this off-season while operating on an a relatively tight budget. Each of the guys we've signed have some warts. That's why they weren't hugely expensive. The only one I worry about at all is Star - because he was the exception in terms of contract. He was expensive. Then again of all the signings he's the one who Beane and McD know best. If they think he's worth that contract, I'm open-minded.

He only spent 15 minutes talking to each candidate. Beane and his staff have spent untold hours studying tape on each guy and talking to as many people who know them as they could dig up. I'm pretty sure Beane has a good idea who he wants from this QB class. And you're right, regardless of the actual board, Beane and McD will tell you how excited they are to get the guys they draft.

We need competition on the OL. Maybe these guys will contribute. Maybe they won't. But you can't blame Beane for signing offensive linemen with starting experience.

This is an excellent post. And another reason why not to trade away McD's firstborn and Beane's left n*t to trade up above the Jets. The price the Jests paid to move up 3 spots is frightening. Some scouts say this is a very rich draft with lots of future starters and stars. In other words, this is a great draft to have a lot of picks.

As I said, the evidence is circumstantial and wouldn't convince a jury beyond a reasonable doubt. So I get there's a dissenting interpretation. By why would you trade your starting OT away to move up in the draft if the Bills just want to "add talent, in bulk"? If that was the plan, we'd keep Glenn. We lost talent to move up. For what purpose? To get some undetermined player at some undetermined position? Draft day may prove me wrong but I think Beane's got his eyes on someone - someone who lines up behind the center.

You have to know the Bills board and the boards of other teams to evaluate how conservative the Bills are being. Maybe the Bills believe their guy will fall to #12. Maybe they're trying to get up to 6 or 7 because that's where their guy's going. Maybe they have reason to believe the Jets board is very different than theirs so they don't care what NYJ is doing. The Jets just paid a bucket load just to move up 3 spots. They're clearly eyeing someone specific. Let's hope they've set their target on the wrong QB.

I don't know if how well his skills translate over but it was fun to watch opposing rugby players try to tackle that giant. He is big and athletic enough for the NFL.

* We don't have a proven starter. * We have a lot of draft capital. * This is a QB rich draft. * We traded our starting LT way to move up to #12. This might be too circumstantial to get a guilty verdict from a jury but I'm convinced: we're grabbing a QB.

I never idolized any actors, musicians, astronauts, basketball or baseball players as a kid. I only ever had one idol growing up: OJ Simpson. His amazing talent on the field was matched by his class off it. Now I can't stand the turd. Kind of cool, I suppose, that Tim Graham and the BN landed an interview with him.

I wonder if the bolded statement might be true. I think some of us are expecting Beane to trade up higher before the draft. He might actually be waiting for draft day to see how the first picks go before deciding whether or not he needs to trade up to get his man.

The only way it's not a QB is if Beane and McD see something in AJM that the rest of us aren't seeing. Supposedly, Hue Jackson really wanted AJM as his starter. Maybe McD does too. Maybe he thinks AJM is our franchise QB and we don't need to look further. But that's hard to imagine. Given our lack of a proven starter - and this being the "year of the quarterback" - how do you not draft one when you have as much draft capital as the Bills? Maybe AJM is better than most NFL talent evaluators seem to think. Do you stake your team's future and your career on a "maybe"? I wouldn't.

And it all won't get done. At least not this year.

Thanks for this. I didn't watch/listen but this seems like a great summary.

I really hope you're right! But let's give him a chance to run his first draft before anointing him.

We're good this year. But at some point (next year?) we must draft McCoy's replacement. With only so many touches to go around drafting that guy too soon is a bit of a waste. But drafting that guy too late would be an even bigger problem.

Yikes. Every QB looks great when you watch only highlight reels. And every QB looks crappy when you examine their lowlights. I think the sample size is still too small to grade AJ as a QB. But let's remember he's never had the opportunity to QB an offense built around his individual skill set, nor the opportunity to get #1 reps outside a few weeks in 2015. And yet his career passer rating is somewhat higher than Tyrod's (and he's cheaper!).

Thanks for sharing - especially because I rarely watch college football and know very little about AJ. Sounds like an easy guy to like - though so was Tyrod. While - like the rest of the Western World - I expect the Bills to draft a QB, I think AJ will be given a chance to compete and there's a good chance we'll start the season with him under season. If he plays well, it'll be hard for the rook to unseat him. AJ controls his own destiny at this point.

No surprise. Trading up to 12 is nice but doesn't net us a top QB. Seems evident that Beane intends to go up higher.

My bad. It was Gugny after all.

I don't think PFF grades are predictive of future performance. A player's performance - as graded by PFF and other analytics sites - depends both on scheme and supporting cast. A player miscast in the wrong scheme, surrounded by players who poorly execute their assignments, and coached by a guy who's comparatively weak at preparation (to use an extreme example) isn't likely to score high. Beane and McD know Lutulelei better than PFF. If they think he's a good fit for this scheme on this team, I can only believe them for now until we have on-the-field evidence.