hondo in seattle

I love charts like this. They're so informative and look so pretty and professional. But I don't trust them because I don't trust the data behind them. Who's determining win rate? I can't imagine this is any more accurate than PFF grades. Not entirely useless, maybe, but not something we should take too seriously. Interesting though that Gabe Davis is below average both versus zone and man. And Keon is better versus man coverage than either Diggs or Davis. (It's one of those things... I love the chart when it tells me something I like. Hate it otherwise).

Passer rating is better, IMHO, than QBR or PFF grades. But it also has flaws because it measures efficiency rather than production, For example, if a QB goes 10 for 15 for 150 yards in a game, he'll be rated exactly the same as a QB who goes 20 of 30 for 300 yards. I would argue the second QB deserves a higher rating because: (1) he contributed twice as many yards to the team's offense. (2) because he threw twice as much, the defense probably probably played more pass D. But both QB completed 67% of their passes for 10 yards per attempt - statistically equivalent if you ignore actual production.

I live near San Jose, CA, now. My wife flew to Seattle from San Jose the Friday before the game to visit friends. She said the first class section of the plane was dominated by Bills fans flying up from San Jose. We're everywhere.

I agree with the bolded. When we acquire a new midlevel FA, for example, I look at PFF scores because that data is better than the nothingness of my own knowledge. But I don't trust PFF at all. The Smith-Allen grades are crazy. J.J. Watt once said, "The system is terrible. Do they watch a different film than we do?" He also said on McAfee that he's sat with coaches and compared PFF grades with coachs' grades and they were "not even close."

I never trusted PFF grades for a host of reasons. But didn't thinking their rating system was this bad.

I'm not sure who the 2024 Buffalo Bills are just yet. Sometimes we're awesome and execute at a high level. Sometimes we look just awful. Dr. Jeckyll and Mr. Hyde. Will the real Buffalo Bills please stand up! Maybe some of the inconsistency has to do with two new coordinators and a bunch of new starters. I think the Lions game will tell us a lot. All the newness issues should be worked out by then. It'll be interesting to see how we perform against the team that might be the best in the NFC. Are we contenders or pretenders?

One of my favorite Bills moments. Hooks was a hero on that final drive. My favorite backup Bills RB. This game cemented his place in my Bills nostalgia.

65 years. 2 AFL Championships. No Super Bowl victories. Yet.

I'm not disagreeing and am sure you are corrrect and can find good sushi inland. But my fish-loving friends (personally, I hate the squirmy things) would disagree about the fish in the Pacific Northwest. Better Seattle restaurants (sushi and otherwise) do sell locally caught fresh fish. I used to buy my wife dungeness crab, and some other goodies, directly from a fisherman. And I've talked to chefs about the quality of NW seafood which they praise. The other part of sushi is, I think, competition. When there are a lot of restaurants selling a certain type of cuisine, the competition heats up, often bringing out the best of the owners/chefs. Sushi is big on the west coast, and some other places, so the quality tends to be better. The competition is fierce. Evolve or die.

A lot of Asians live in Seattle. The Asian food scene there, while not quite as good as LA or San Francisco, is solid. Plus the seafood industry in Seattle is also strong with a sizeable fishing fleet.

I'm not surprised you liked Tom Brady today. He praised McD, Allen, the Bills culture, and the Bills mafia - and almost sounded like he was a secret Bills fan.

This is a great chart. And it illustrates our curse. We have the bad fortune of being very good during the Chiefs dynasty when they are even better. There are no prizes for #2.

AI is your friend... In summary, in college he was a four-time member of The Athletic's "Freaks List," ranking as high as No. 4 overall and No. 1 among offensive skill player. 6'1", 207 lbs 4.40 forty Signed with the Broncos as a UDFA. 2 receptions for 75 yards. Later waived. WR and return guy.

Bills... 27 Hawks... 20

This is a great post and rebuts the popular view. I think nationally, people see Allen as surpremely talented but reckless with the ball and a turnover machine. I admit that when I watch Mahomes, I do think he's a better decision maker. Yet these numbers might argue not.

I'll make two commitments... (1) I won't claim to know what you want, think, or feel. I don't know you. To pretend I know what goes on inside of you would be dishonest. (2) I won't make weak attempts at mockery based on religion. I hope for an America that is better than that.

As is often the case, you are correct. This is a straw man argument. You say that lots of people caim Andy Reid is the GOAT. Then you attack that argument. This is a quintessential straw man because virtually no one is claiming Reid is the GOAT. The links you provided say Reid might eventually get into the GOAT conversation with more Lombardis - which is a reasonable guess. The second article, written by a Chiefs fan, asserts that Reid will need four more titles to enter GOAT consideration. There aren't many people right now, even in Kansas City, saying Reid's the GOAT. So I agree with you. Reid is not the GOAT.

There is clear evidence for your position and I get your point. But Josh has a multi-year record of putting on the Superman cape and trying to make low-probability big plays instead of high probabilty short gainers. I'm afraid he'll put that cape back on in positions of stress. But I hope you're correct and that Josh has matured and is indeed a better decision-maker - now and forever.

Who's saying he's the GOAT? I gotta admit, that's crazy talk. But hanging the "recency bias" label on Reid doesn't change the facts. He's been a good coach throughout his long career. And he's won 3 of the past 5 Super Bowls. I don't think anyone who's followed his career is suprised by his recent success. Reid finally has the DC and QB he wants. Give a good offensive head coach a good DC and QB and good things will happen.

My good doctor, my memory is an imperfect instrument but as I recall... In the 2023 playoff loss, Milano (the heart & soul of our defense), Tre White, Michah Hyde, Tyrel Dodson, Christian Benford, Taylor Rapp, Baylon Spector, and Jordan Phillips were all unavailable. Rasul Douglas played on a gimpy knee. AJ Kline imitated someone trying to cover Tavis Kelce. Someone wearing number 40 suited up but it wasn't the future Hall of Famer known as Von Miller. The 2022 playoffs were weird. Psychologically, the team was dealing with the Topps shooting and Damar's onfield death/cardiac arrest. Hyde and Milano were both out. Others too if I recall correctly. In the 2021 playoff loss to KC, both defenses were equally bad, each giving up 36 points in regulation despite Spags being viewed by many to be the best DC in the league. Sometimes even great DC struggle to stop an offense that's executing at a high level. The game was effectively decided by a coin toss - a situation so blatanty unfair that the league immediately change OT rules in the aftermath of the game. I think McD is the same coach in the playoffs that he is in the regular season. Good disguises. Fundamentally & tactically sound if not quite brilliant. That gets the job done against average teams. But when you're going up against the league's best in the playoffs and you're not 100% and/or don't have a strong enough roster, it's a problem. When you look at the totality of their careers... yes.

This is true. But we'd had some serious injury issues on D the past two years. If we enter this year's playoffs healthy, I expect the D to perform competently despite not having the strongest defensive roster.

I think some people overrate Mahomes. But I also think he's still better than Allen - not in his physical skills but in his decision making. Allen can make every throw that Mahomes makes and when he's on his game, he's amazing. But we've heard it from Kurt Warner, Greg Cosell, and a myriad other ex-NFL quarterbacks and film gurus: Allen needs to be smarter with the ball. He needs to get the ball out "on schedule" as Warner says. He's got to hit his primary when open on a seven yard dig instead of waiting to see if something better develops. Allen's gridiron greed hurts his efficiency.

This is where McD struggles. Reid found a stud to run the other side of the ball. McD has gone through Dennison, Daboll, Dorsey, and Brady to run the other side of the ball. No continuity. And none are the stud at what they do that Spags is.

You mention two offensive minds ahead of him and I think your choices are legit. But I don't know about the comical part. What makes KC special is that they have the best big trio in the NFL: HC/opposite side coordinator/QB. Reid may not be the best offensive guy or head coach in football but he's high on the list. And he recruited Spags for the defense and deserves credit there. Spags could work elsewhere but chooses to work for Reid. And while Mahomes makes Reid look good I think it's a two-way relationship. I think Reid has helped Mahomes realize his potential and optimize his skill set. In 25 years of coaching, Reid's had some good rosters and some crap rosters. Probability says he should be .500 with perhaps one Lombardi by now. Instead, he's .647 with 3 Lombardis. He's made the playoffs in 19 of his 25 years. And you would think that, after 25 years of doing this, he's gotten pretty good. Experience typically sharpens skills. I have no problem with people calling Andy great.

I agree that the rules should be written in a way that Keon scores. But I get the NFL. There is no catch until the receiver controls - and maintains control of - the ball. So if a receiver bobbles a ball as he goes out of bounds, it’s not a catch. Makes sense. Officially Keon didn’t catch the ball until he established control after the ball slipped. Once the catch was made, he didn’t get two feet in. I see it like you. He caught the ball. Never dropped it. Got two feet in bounds. Crossed the plane. Seems like it should be a TD but I’m not sure how the rule should be rewritten.