hondo in seattle

I have no expectations. The Trade could happen today, or tomorrow... or draft day. Or not at all. Nothing would surprise me. (Though, more and more, I'm hoping The Trade doesn't happen at all).

For decades, rule changes favored the offense. The NFL wanted more scoring - and got it. Going forward, I think more and more rule changes will favor safety. And the more limitations you put on tacklers (for example, you can't lead with your helmet now), the more you help runners. The rule changes may actually help the running game.

I've thought draft picks were overvalued for a while - ever since (at least) we traded away Marshawn for next to nothing (a 4th and a conditional/5th). It almost seems like arrogance on the part of GMs - as if they believe they can translate a mid round pick into a Pro Bowler/Hall of Famer. Usually they can't. The price to move up in the draft is insane. It's cheaper actually to get a veteran who's already proven himself.

This is something I wonder about as well... On the one hand, the NFL loves scoring and loves the passing game. So rule changes have tended to favor a passing offense. So maybe the running offenses of the past are permanently dead. On the other hand, defenses today are designed to stop the passing game. The nickel is now the most common defense in the NFL and we're even starting to see more and more dime. Defensive players are faster - and smaller - than they used to be because coverage is now a more important skill than tackling. So wouldn't it make sense - if you don't have a franchise QB - to build an offense of bruisers who believe in three yards and a cloud of dust? Start with some beefy linemen and an Earl Campbell type running back. Then get some speedy WRs and a strong-armed (if not Brady-esque in terms of accuracy) QB who will make the defense think twice about loading the box. I don't think modern defenses are not equipped to stop a good power running game.

MBF, you must be a born contrarian. Can't just go with the flow, can you? It's actually kind of refreshing to see a completely different take on the draft. Something other than the Holy Quest for the Savior QB.

Agree. 1983 had 6 QBs taken in the first round. Four of those played in SBs. Four in the Pro Bowl. Three were inducted into the Hall. I'll be shocked if this draft proves nearly as productive. "More and more front offices have come to the realization that QB is more important now than it's ever been." Huh? 1983 proves that GMs back then appreciated the value of the QB position way back then. That's why they drafted 6 QBs in the first round. We might see 5 this year. GMs are generally bright people. They haven't come to any new realization. They've valued QBs for a long time now.

Good information. But do we really need another thread speculating about which QB we're going after?

When I saw the title of the Thread I thought the very same thing, "Flutie... and it's not even close." I can't remember so many heated differences of opinion.

There are enough transplanted Buffalonians and Bills fans in Jax that they'll get the joke.

I think the honest GMs simply avoid saying anything substantial. What they say may be the truth but it's edited and far from full disclosure. And sometimes carefully chosen truths can be misleading. The dishonest GMs will willingly lie to gain an advantage. When I was in the army, I took an oath "not to lie, cheat or steal - nor tolerate those who do." Yet combat operational orders often contained a "deception plan" for how we'll deceive the enemy. We didn't necessarily lie to anyone but we did everything we could to make the enemy think we were doing something different than what we were actually doing. I'm sure many GMs have active deception plans this time of the year.

Kind of sounds like this guy has decided what rumors he believes and which ones he doesn't. And this is how he puts it together.

And there's the rub. A lot of young QBs spend time with QB gurus who supposedly fix their mechanical flaws. Then you put them in a game and see the same kinds of problems they exhibited in college. A few, however, actually get better. How much are you willing to pay for a might/might-not prospect?

IF it's true that the Bills are 'trying like hell' to move up, it seems to me they really like someone. And that someone can't be the same QB they think the Browns like because that's the one team we can't jump over. Beane must believe he's targeting someone that will be available after the Brown's pick. Allen? It's possible, I suppose but I just don't see Allen as someone worth the cost of moving up into the top 5.

We don't have a shot at a can't miss guy. We do have a shot at a number of can-miss guys. And that's why things are interesting. We can spend a boatload of draft capital and move up to pick a guy with a - maybe - 40% chance of being a franchise QB. Or we can spend just our #12 pick to get a guy with a 25% chance of success. Someone who's good at game theory could do all the math but to me it makes sense to stand pat. This is supposed to be a strong draft. We can get a decent QB prospect and maybe a couple Pro Bowl players at other positions if we don't trade up.

I don't know about Jackson but I agree with the rest of this. The more I learn about these QBs, the more concerns I have. Let's say we can trade up and pick a QB with a 40% chance of being a franchise QB. Or stay pat at 12 and pick a guy with a 25% chance of being a franchise QB. Is it worth an improvement of 15% to give away this year's and next year's first round picks? You can put in your own numbers but IMHO there isn't a can't-miss QB is this class. And I just don't think whatever gain in probability we get is worth the price to get it.

The law professor who made up this exam question must have been a Bill fan: Olaf did not know that Pilar was 17 years old but Rex did. Rex had an antisocial personality disorder and had a delusional belief that Pilar was in love with him. Rex entered Pilar’s bedroom window while Pilar slept. Pilar woke and hit Rex with her golf club. Rex punched Pilar and proceeded to have sexual intercourse with her. Pilar’s roommate Tess heard the commotion and hit Rex in the head with a frying pan. Rex died. Minnie wanted her cash back and called the police to stop Olaf. All parties are taken into custody and questioned. 1.What crimes should be charged? 2.What defenses should be raised? https://www.coursehero.com/file/p18rlno/Rex-had-an-antisocial-personality-disorder-and-had-a-delusional-belief-that/

Given the price to trade up, I'm thinking more and more that it's not happening. So what QB (if any) will we take if not one of the top 2 or 3? Nabbing Rudolf at 22 or 53 doesn't seem crazy.

Wasn't Olaf Pilar involved in the April 1 trade for Brady last year?

GunnerBill rated Mayfield as a mid to late 1st round pick. Is he on the list?

Gunner, thanks for this. Too many guys on the internet - even professional media types - often make strong pronouncements on this draft class without actually doing much film study. So I read your evaluations with interest because you're different - you've clearly done your research and have a good eye. Much appreciated.

Best name in this year's draft.

The Bills were criticized by Rosenthal (and, as I recall, Peter King) for not hiring Doug Whaley when we hired Buddy Nix to be GM. But Nix quickly hired Whaley, Whaley eventually took over the reins, and then failed. The media gurus aren't always right. Another note, I don't recall the exact number buy the Bills won about 46% of their games over the years with Wilson as the owner. Something was clearly going wrong. The argument that he was cheap with GMs and coaches makes some sense. But Wilson kept the team in Buffalo and gave tons of money to charity. For that, he has my respect.

Yep. I remember when Kelly was drafted and when he actually came to Buffalo later. That excited me. The drafting of any of these QBs will fail to excite me the way Kelly did. But I'll support any of them and hope for the best.

We need competition - not to mention camp bodies - at every position.

No worries, Shady. I always read your posts because I know you're an informed poster with good reasoning. We just disagreed on this. I used to be the optimist who always tried to find reasons to believe the Bills will be competitive. And right now the optimist in me wants to believe those who say Mccarron is the QB we've been looking for and we don't need to look any further. The pessimist in me wants to draft QBs all day long until one proves himself a worthy successor to Jim Kelly. I'm trying to be more of a realist these days and the realist in me is somewhere in between the two extremes. I acknowledge the possibility that Mccarron may be better than some think. I certainly like the kid's attitude. But until we have a proven answer (and at this point Mccarron is neither a proven success nor a proven failure), we've got to spend some of our draft capital on a QB.