hondo in seattle

Good find 26CB. Great read. Makes me even more nervous about trading up than I already was. All these guys are flawed.

I'm expecting the unexpected. I think a lot of mocks will prove to be way wrong. And I think this forum is going to go nuts with our picks. There will be weeping and gnashing of teeth... It's going to be fun.

You've gotta admit there's a certain amount of genius here. He invented his own career and has made millions. And while he doesn't evaluate players as well as NFL scouting departments, he doesn't need to. He just needs to know the players better than the average fan so he can tell us something new. And he's good at this. He does tons of research and then makes (often bad) prognostications. It's all kind of entertaining.

I think Beane's already decided the price to move to 2 is too high. My guess is that he's going to watch how the early picks play out and then decide where he wants to get to. I would not be shocked if he didn't trade up at all but I think the greater probability is the 4-11 category. I think with so little consensus on the quality of the QBs (not to mention the other positions), I think this is going to be an interesting draft with some big surprises. It's gonna to be fun to watch - though I suspect a lot of fans will be disappointed in the end.

Yep. I always smile when the media gurus talk about guys rising and falling. Mostly they don't - not on team draft boards. Players' stock rise and fall in the media because they come to realize they've initially rated a guy too high or too low. Team draft boards have a lot less movement than media draft boards. The only reasons a player's stock will rise or fall is because they have a surprisingly good or bad workout or something else happens (they break their ankle playing b-ball or get arrested). Talking about rising and falling draft stock is mostly just media drama.

Emphatically no. We have too few offensive weapons as it is. And at the age of 30, we'd never good value for him in a trade.

Maybe so. The QB is the variable everyone talks about. When we don't know who's lining up under center, it's hard to make any kind of meaningful W-L prediction. But coaching is another variable. How good is McD really as a head coach? He got us into the playoffs last year with a very flawed roster. Then again, our offensive and defensive rankings were poor. And how good is Daboll? He was bad in his previous stints as a NFL OC but he didn't have much to work with back then and he's had some great learning experiences since. Many guys in the NFL speak highly of him. Btw, I think it's funny that Ryan Talbot has no idea who are rookie QB might be but predicts whoever he is, he'll start 6 games and win half of them. Talk about a shot in the dark! At this point, I wouldn't even hazard a guess about our record this season.

A little optimism and pessimism from Upstate NY.... Fairburn's prediction: 9-7 Plenty will depend on how the Bills' quarterback situation shakes out, but they have a chance to exceed expectations again in 2017. It's reasonable to expect a step back, but the rest of the AFC is in flux, and the Bills avoid some of the conference juggernauts like the Steelers and Chiefs. Who knows if 9-7 is enough to get the Bills into the playoffs, but it's not a farfetched notion in 2018. Talbot's prediction: 6-10 The Bills were more competitive than many expected in Sean McDermott's first season as head coach. They take a step back in 2018, but the future is bright. Buffalo's rookie quarterback goes 3-3 as starter and the Bills have the cap space to build around the signal-caller in 2019 and beyond. http://www.newyorkupstate.com/expo/erry-2018/04/d761a680bd6490/buffalo_bills_2018_schedule_ga.html

Or so say the wizards at Bleacher Report Buffalo Bills The football gods finally smiled upon the Bills, allowing them to make the playoffs for the first time since the 1999 season. A repeat appearance likely isn't in the cards this year, though. AJ McCarron is not an upgrade over Tyrod Taylor at quarterback, and the offensive line remains in flux. LeSean McCoy turns 30 in July, while the team's leading tackler, Preston Brown, signed with the Bengals in free agency. The schedule-makers didn't do the Bills any favors, either, by placing the Chargers, Vikings, Packers and Titans—all of whom are playoff contenders—in Weeks 2-5. Prediction: 7-9 http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2771167-2018-nfl-schedule-win-loss-predictions-for-every-team

I was thinking the same thing. And nice post by JB. Better than reading yet another thread about why we should or shouldn't pick a certain QB.

In the past my favorite player on any season's squad tended to be a backup like - for example - Roland Hooks back in the late 70s. But now my pick as a favorite player is a bit cliche: KW. How can you not love this guy's heart and loyalty? And I have to give an Honorable Mention to another star player - Shady. I thought he was an immature, self-absorbed punk when we first signed him. But I've grown to love his team-first attitude. He demonstrated a warped kind of genius when he gave Sammy an envelope full of targets!

With many of the OPs observations in mind, I usually don't judge our drafts until a year or two (or three) later. The light draft reading I do hardly compares to the thousands of hours of due diligence put in by the Bills scouting department. I simply don't have the time nor the resources to research candidates as thoroughly as they do. I'll be cautiously excited about every pick.

Sure. But better tech can reduce the risk. There’s some interesting things happen in the world of helmet technology.

Really? Richie is a spinning wheel right now and who knows where the wheel will stop. He was a happy camper last year and I can imagine him settling into a happy camper role again this year.

Yep. If Richie in fact wants to be traded, he's going about it the wrong way by destroying his trade value.

And from our standpoint, that's perfect. We hope all our players produce more than they get paid. If he didn't like the contract, he shouldn't have signed it. Maybe he needed a million dollars and restructured the contract to get the bonus up front. But the Bills would only renegotiate the contract if they were given a discount. I'm not sure how this unfolded but I'd rather see the Bills underpay for talent than overpay.

Jim Brown and OJ were clearly the best backs of their generation. I'd argue they were the best two backs in NFL history and there's a drop-off after them. I'd put Payton at #3. Emmitt Smith is the all-time rushing leader but he might not have even been the best running back of his era. Emmitt's greatest talent was longevity. Thurman was an awesome all purpose back and the motor at the heart of the high-scoring K-Gun. But he was also a beneficiary of the K-Gun. The 90s Bills could effectively run both inside and outside. They could pass both short and long, on the perimeter and down the middle. Forcing the D to defend so many places made it easier for everyone to gain yards. The difference between, let's say, #8 and #12 on the all-time best back list is pretty thin and terribly subjective. But if I was forced to come up with a Top Ten list, I don't think Thurman would make it.

Whatever the dumb as* I'm not a told-you-so kind of guy. But as I said on Tuesday... Posted Tuesday at 08:45 AM First he says he signs his new contract and says how excited he is to play another year for the Bills. Then he fires his agent. Then he tweets that he's done. Then he deletes that tweet. Then he tells Vic he really is done. Then he tells another reporter that he's in talks with the Bills about his retirement. When the wheel stops spinning, let me know. I'm not convinced Richie's retirement is the final word.

I thought this was very interesting from a different vantage point - it gives us insight into what NFL professionals look at when they look at QBs. Steve is more detailed and nuanced in his observations than many of the more famous draft gurus.

Anyone who believes games are won and lost in the trenches has to be worried right now. We've got some serviceable players on the line but no studs.

What we truly need is another thread on the trading-up versus staying-put debate.

First he says he signs his new contract and says how excited he is to play another year for the Bills. Then he fires his agent. Then he tweets that he's done. Then he deletes that tweet. Then he tells Vic he really is done. Then he tells another reporter that he's in talks with the Bills about his retirement. When the wheel stops spinning, let me know. I'm not convinced Richie's retirement is the final word.

This isn't news. We've known we overpaid for Star since the contract details came out. The contract doesn't match his recent production. Clearly Beane and McD think Star's future production will match his salary. We'll see.

The Browns were thinking like Vic when they drafted Johnny Football. Who will be this year's Leaf/Manziel?

I hate to say it because the man is despicable... but OJ is #1 and in my mind it's not even close. OJ is the best football player I've ever watched play. The 70s was still the era of the running back and OJ was in a league of his own - clearly better than any other ball carrier in the league at that time. Maybe Jim Brown was as good, or better, but I only know him from highlight reels so I can't say. Brady is widely called the GOAT at QB but he's only a hair better than some of his contemporaries (Brees and Rodgers, for example). Bruce was great - but some would agree that he wasn't even the best of his generation (Reggie was pretty darn talented too). OJ - on the other hand - was flat out other worldly. There was no one you could mention in the same sentence as him back then. OJ nearly doubled the production of the next best back in 1973! When did Bruce ever double the production of other DEs? When did Brady ever double the production of the next best QB? With that in mind, here's my list: 1. OJ - arguably the best football player ever (certainly the best Bill IMHO). 2. Bruce - arguably the best DE ever (though White and Jones fans make good arguments for their man) 3. Bledsoe - four Pro Bowls and some other good years 4. Williams - four Pro Bowls and some disappointing years 5. Patulski - not quite as big a bust as some say but clearly a poor choice as #1 overall