hondo in seattle

There's plenty of accountability in the media - just not the type we'd wish for. Guys who drive revenues do well. Guys who don't drive revenue don't. It has next-to-nothing to do with accuracy at predictions or knowledge of the game. I'm not expecting the Bills to light the world on fire this season - too many gaps/questions on the offensive side - I also think prediction of 2 wins are pretty crazy. Yet we read those articles, given the author clicks.

This is really Interesting - thanks for posting - but I think the subject needs further study. Teams playing from behind tend to throw more. This is probably why passing attempts are negatively correlated with winning and passing yards are not strongly correlated with winning. In real life, we know there are times when your running game just isn't delivering the production you need and you have to throw the ball to win. When that happens, you need a QB who can put up a 300 yard game. Jim Kelly, for example, could do that. Tyrod couldn't. Statistics taken out of context never tell the whole story. Btw, which correlates with winning more: QBR or passer rating?

Like others, I won't believe in the collapse of the Patriot dynasty until it happens. The reports about Brady vs Belichick friction don't get my hopes up at all. Not even a little. It's just offseason chatter.

I personally hope Richie gets the help he clearly needs and I hope Kaep plays in the NFL again. I'm not sure why those two points of view can't go hand in hand.

We know what kind of defense McD likes to run and we know the players we have. The performance of the D this year is somewhat predictable. The O is another story. It'll be interesting to see if Daboll (an upgrade?) can compensate for the downgrading on the offensive side of the roster. Daboll hasn't been an NFL OC in a long time. He's a bit of a wildcard. He may turn out to be way better than Rico - someone who will make lemonade with the lemons given. Then again, maybe not. And, at this point, we don't even know who'll line up under center. All we can do is embrace the uncertainty - fun times ahead!

We released Streater in September. Between then and January of this year, no other team signed him. The NFL, it seems, doesn't think highly of Rod Streater, despite that 'good' year in 2013. I hope they're all wrong.

I agree. There's something about it that's very old school. Really simple and pure. No frills. A lot of football legends have worn that helmet.

Here in Seattle, numerous locals think they invented the term, "12th man." They didn't, of course. The expression has been around since at least 1900. But Seahawk fans have embraced it and it seems now a very much Seattle thing with #12 Jerseys, flags, and logos everywhere. Buffalo could do the same with "Respect the Process" - except that it's not all that inspiring. I suppose it's a good catchphrase to use with the players because you want them to embrace McD's way of doing things. But it doesn't resonate with me as a fan.

I confess, in my deepest, most implausible fantasies I imagine the Bills having both the OROY and DROY this year.

Good research. Incidentally, I don't get the finally-a-guy-who-gets-it attitude. OCs are - generally speaking - not dummies. They all 'get it' more than the fans 'get it.' Some OCs, though, are better at turning concept into on-the-field reality. Using a combined system has its pros and cons. Mastery is the con. There's a reason Vince Lombardi had a simpler playbook than other coaches - he wanted to his players to execute at a high level more than he wanted to out-smart and out-scheme his opponent. Sounds like Daboll is at the other end of the spectrum. General George S. Patton once said something to the effect that 5% of the success of any plan depends on the plan itself - the rest is execution. I'm indifferent to Daboll's use of different blocking schemes. I want to know if he can create an offense that actually scores points.

I try to remain dispassionate and expectation-free during the offseason. But the more I hear stuff like this, the more hopeful I get about Allen. The people who know Allen best, and watch him the closest, seem to believe he has the potential to be something special. And I find myself, against my better judgment, feeling more excited than I've been about a new Bills QB since Jim Kelly decided to sign. Then again, I confess that I started to feel some excitement for Trent Edwards when I learned Bill Walsh called Marv to tell him how lucky the Bills were to get him. Even the smartest talent evaluators are sometimes wrong. There's no certainty in the draft.

Good listen. Kyle needs to stay a Bill forever. Loves the team & city; wants to set the right example for the younger players. His contributions are far greater than what we see from him on the field.

I agree with you. Both in politics and sports, I make a point of reading journalists with a different point of view than my own. Even here I find some of the best posts are from guys I disagree with. Sully just wasn't "illuminating" as far as I was concerned. But, you're right, the venom is uncalled for. The world dumps on all of us enough as it is. We don't need to dump on each other. I'm hopeful that Sully's departure bodes well for the BN but I wish Sully himself nothing but peace, health and happiness.

Here are my thoughts - knowing I won't change anyone's mind. I didn't mind that Sully was critical of the Bills per se. What really bothered me is that he simply didn't offer the two things I really want in an article: he didn't inform me and he didn't entertain me. He burned bridges at OBD and didn't have any insider sources. Nor did he have a particular deep knowledge of the game that provided me with insights I couldn't find here and elsewhere. Sully was just a curmudgeon. He would find a cloud on the sunniest day. Even when the Bills won, or made good moves, he found something to whine about. When I read his articles - which I did with less and less frequency over the years - I wasn't amused, I wasn't enlightened, I wasn't engaged. I was just bored with the relentless Sully shtick. His negativity - bordering on nastiness at times - was the only take-away. I got nothing I wanted from his writings. So will I now subscribe to the BN? Losing Sully makes no difference to me because that was never part of the offer in my mind. Had I paid, I wouldn't have read his articles anyway. If the BN replaces Bucky and Sully with better writers, though, I'll definitely pony up.

Does PFF have any kind of track record using analytics on college players to accurately predict NFL performance?

While there's been some great feedback in this thread, I'm impressed by how much this list would resemble my own. We've had a lot of great backs over the years and I'd love to carry more than 4! And as others have mentioned, I'd add a ST spot for Tasker. Fun exercise for the offseason.

I didn't actively dislike Bucky but I can only think of three BN sports writers who I really liked: 1. Larry Felser 2. Tyler Dunne 3. Vic v. 1.0 Larry had contacts and provided insight & inside information. Tyler dug into stories and provided color & depth. Vic 1.0 seemed to be developing into another Felser but things went wrong with him later on.

I'm not sure what this has to do with the Bills but it is very funny!

One of the things that makes the NFL interesting is that it's not entirely predictable. Every year there's at least one surprise team and one surprise player. I'd be unimaginably thrilled if Peterman won the starting job and took us deep into the playoffs. I admit that possibility. I think it's far more likely that he doesn't take any regular season snaps at all. I think AJ starts the season and Allen finishes it.

I don't know if this is a top 5 or 10 defense yet. But I think it gets into the upper half of the rankings this year. Beane is starting to get the kind of players that McD wants.

The problem with the offensive roster is that these guys (outside Shady) don't have great NFL resumes. Not our QBs, not our OL, not our WRs. As far as that goes, our OC doesn't have a great NFL resume (as on OC) either. If past NFL production is the best predictor of future NFL productions, we're in trouble. But there are reasons to believe some of these guys are better than their NFL stat line may indicate.

On the one hand, he's one of the few offensive weapons we have. On the other hand, he's hitting that age when backs start to decline. Despite his current level of ability, his trade value is minimal because of his age. So I don't see him being traded. When you only have one legit weapon on offense, you can't afford to give it up. I do see us looking to draft his replacement next year.

I'll be happy if either of these guys ends up productive this year. AJ did some good things in his 4 NFL starts. But overall he was far less productive running that Bengal offense than Dalton was. Allen did some good things in college. But the defenses he faced in college are nothing like the defenses the Bills will face this year. Allen will really need to step up his game. I'm hoping for the best but I just don't see the Bills having a very productive passing game this year. Statistically, it'll probably look like last year except with more turnovers. Here's what excites me, though. Tyrod was a proven mediocrity and the Bills decided they wanted more. So they brought in McCarron who may not have yet reached his NFL ceiling and drafted a boom/bust rookie. Under the circumstances, we couldn't have asked for more. If you include Peterman, we just need 1 of these 3 to prove their doubters wrong.

Each one of our WRs has something to like. But there's nothing in their histories that says they can stay healthy and/or produce at the NFL level. Hopefully they'll all surprise and have breakout/career years but there's no compelling reason to believe this will happen.

No Pinto Ron? No smashed tables?