hondo in seattle

There's an old saying in India, "When a pickpocket walks down the street, all he sees is pockets." Like everyone else, I notice that Jerry gets held a lot - maybe because we're watching for it?

I do think there's a difference in how a NFL coach effectively treats his players and what's effective in college. But maybe a bigger difference is that college coaches need to recruit their players. Recruiting is not a vital skill for NFL coaches but if a college coach can't recruit, he fails.

There's no certainty in drafting college players - especially QBs. Some GM - I forget which one - once said that no college QB is NFL-ready. So you have to guess which will continue to develop their skills and which won't. Due diligence only gets you so far. In the end, you cross your fingers. Josh's arm talent has been pretty much as expected based on the little vid I watched and the scouting reports I had read. What he can do with his legs is a revelation. And I've been pleased with the role he's developing as a team leader. I'm not convinced yet that he's a franchise QB but I am hopeful.

That's the thing. NFL GMs have tremendous resources. Millions of dollars to spend. Lots of college and pro scouts who are all fully immersed in football. Countless connections on college campuses and around the NFL. Hundreds of hours of tape. Hours and hours of interviews. Private detectives to do background work. In the end, there's still an element of luck. But Average Joe can't replicate the level of due diligence done by a NFL GM. And Mayock's never had these kinds of resources before. Will he know how to use them as wisely as a GM who's worked in the NFL for the past 15 years and worked his way up from a regional scout position?

Mostly agree. We have 10 draft picks and roughly $100 million to spend on free agents. Nonetheless, Beane's is not going to fill all the holes on offense we're talking about. The right players just won't be available in every case. We will, of course, see a partial rebuild. Hopefully the OL gets a pretty major overhaul. But next season we'll still see some weaker guys suiting up and playing on the offensive side of the ball.

This is pretty much where I'm at. A better OL will produce a better running game and a better passing game. We need offensive linemen. Shady is getting old and there's no question a younger, quicker back to take over the mantle would be great. But considering we need offensive linemen, wide receivers, and a TE - not to mention some upgrades on defense - how high do you prioritize RB?

I think when Beane talks about being judicious in free agency, he means he wants to find his superstars in the draft. FA superstars are premium priced - and don't always work out. Beane mostly wants to use his cap money for solid - if not spectacular - starters and depth players. With roughly $100 mil to spend, though, I wouldn't be surprised if he went after one big name free agent.

True enough. But what does he know about running a winning organization? How will he organize his scouts and what instructions will he give them? What credibility will he have with his staff? Choosing Mayock is odd even when you assume Gruden is going to be the de facto GM. Then again, Mayock is a smart guy who's picked a lot of brains in his decades hanging out with scouts and other personnel guys. Maybe there's hope for him - but he's not who I would have chosen if I was Chucky.

Or to supplement him. From what I've ready, Culley is good at breaking down defenses in the film room. Palmer is good at QB biomechanics. Two very different, complementary skill sets.

Both NY and Miami are in turmoil and Brady may - finally - be showing signs of age. It might be time for the Bills to take control of the AFCE.

Coach Cowher says McD is on of the best coaches in the NFL. KW talks highly of both Beane and McD.

I didn't see what Mills did either. But I did like the way Josh walked away from the melee as if nothing much was happening.

I agree he’s not a #1 - but not because of the stats. Andre Reed wouldn’t have posted good numbers with this offense.

I remember watching Steve DeBerg in 1978 and wondering what the heck was this clown doing lining up behind center pretending to be a NFL QB? He was unspeakably bad that season, completing just 45% of his passes with a 8-22 TD to INT ratio. His passer rating of 40.0 wasn't quite Peterman bad but it was close. The next year DeBerg completed 60% of his passes and went on to have a decent career. (DeBerg is #31 on the all-time passing yards list, only 4 spots below Kelly). Some guys get better with experience and coaching. And some guys get better when they get the right cast around them. Hopefully both things happen with Josh.

I don't know if Allen will ever be a good QB. But I do know that QBs playing for offenses that are well-oiled, finely tuned machines are more productive. When a receiver (and we have a bunch of young ones) cuts a bit too soon, or too late, or takes a slightly angle after the cut, the result can change from a completion to something else. And PFF can't account for this because they don't know what the receiver was supposed to do. The pass looks errant and that's how it's graded. Or imagine this. The beginning of the play is going well. The snap is perfect. The QB drops back and plants his feet just the way he's been coached. The OL creates a good pocket and the QB can see downfield clearly. As he scans the defense, the QB realizes his pre-snap read was spot on. The play is unfolding just as he hoped and gets ready to launch the ball... and that's when something goes wrong with the WR. He cuts right instead of left or slips behind the DB instead of cutting in front. Now the QB is stressed. He knows his OL isn't very good and the pocket won't last much longer. He quickly searches for his #2 target. The guy is covered but the QB doesn't believe the pocket will last much longer so he hurriedly forces the pass anyway. Incomplete. PFF scores the pass poorly but had the primary receiver run his route right, the pass would have been complete. If the QB had more confidence in the OL, he might have taken the time to find the open checkdown. A QB on a high functioning offense will play better than a QB on a dysfunctional offense. The Bills offense is closer to the "dysfunctional" end of the spectrum than the "high-functioning" end. This isn't a good environment for any QB, let alone a rookie.

Thanks for posting, Thurm. While some of the details are interesting, I don't think this article tells us anything we don't already know. The more basic stats (like completion percentage) - and our own eyes - have already informed us that Josh has not been an accurate passer this season. Josh's accuracy this year is not the real debate. The more meaningful debate is how much he'll improve as a QB from Year 1 to Year 2. I have not heard a convincing argument from either side. Some say accuracy is a genetic hand-eye thing that does't ever get better. Others say there are a lot more factors to completion percentage than precision with the ball: biomechanics, predictable & precise route running by the WRs, the ability to find the open guy (easiest target), and so on. Certainly some QBs have improved upon their Year 1 completion percentage. Some have not. Personally, I really don't know what to expect from Josh next year.

I'm not sure how many people remember that. Fergy's main task in his early years was to give the ball to OJ. But later on he evolved into a good QB. In 1975, we had the best offense in the NFL by a good margin - leading the league in both yards and points.

Say whatever you want about JA's potential, our QB play would not have been good this year even with Woods and Cogs. It would be interesting to see what our passer rating or QBR is when our QBs are not under pressure. I doubt it would compare well with the rest of the league. Nonetheless, I think if both Woods and Cogs played another year, our offense would have be much better - not great but reasonably competent. Defenses don't respect our running attack. They don't respect our passing attack. They control the line of scrimmage. In other words, opposing defenses dictate to us instead of the other way around. Our OL problem is worse than our WR problem. Young QBs like Nate and Josh are even more susceptible to pressure than vets. And while all RBs need holes to run through, a scatbook like Shady needs space to do his best work. His agent agreed to the restructured contract. Why would Beane be wary when Incognito's agent agreed? Cogs' behavior at the time was so back-and-forth and bizarre, I can't blame the FO.

Everyone should start a thread on some belief. Makes this site so much more interesting.

Maybe. But most of the people that you probably see as Kool-Aid drinkers are actually arguing against prejudgment rather than taking a judgmental opinion on the positive extreme. When Beane's obvious plan is to make 2019 and beyond into good years by putting all his dead cap dollars into 2018 and freeing up massive amounts of cap space in 2019 and 2020, it's hard to judge him on this season's results. It was never his plan to be good this year so how do we know if his plan is working or not? The good stuff, by design, is supposed to come later on. And when McD has the lowest paid (i.e. least talented) roster in the NFL this season, it's hard to judge him on this year's W-L record. Let's see what happens next year.

I already mentioned Walsh's rebuild in SF and Carroll's rebuild in Seattle. There are many others.

If you think it's just a narrative, you don't understand the NFL. The best teams manage the cap well and there's a huge correlation between active roster spending and win totals. This season we're dead last in active roster spending. We're still paying for the sins of our past. Beane didn't inherit a wisely managed roster. He's using this year to fix it. He's doing exactly what we'd expect a good NFL executive to do.

Because the best two players on the OL retired. And our QB wasn't a Super Bowl calibre QB and had to be replaced. And our dead money and bloated contracts made sustained excellence impossible. Seriously, just go to Over-The-Cap, or a similar site, and within minutes you'll figure out what Beane is up to. Yes, losing organizations use "rebuild" as an excuse. But good GMs and HCs do successfully rebuild teams from time to time. That's why the excuse sometimes works. We don't know yet if Beane and McD will succeed. But the plan is obviously. We're going to start loading up in 2019 and continue into 2020.

You make it sound like Beane has a track record of wasting picks. He's been in charge of one draft. While the Bills have been rebuilding for decades, the current GM and HC have only a short time in their positions. Here's what Beane's accomplished so far in his short time with us. #2 defense in the NFL. #3 most cap space in 2019 #1 most cap space in 2020 10 draft picks in 2019 This year we had the lowest active roster spending in the NFL. Beane had exceptionally little money to spend on free agency by - as much as possible - taking hits this year to free up cap space for the future. So this season McD had a talent-poor roster to work with and never had a fighting chance. This year was all about making 2019 and 2020 good years. Let's see what Beane and McD do next year before judging them on a plan that was never designed to produce a lot of wins in 2018. $100 million in cap space and 10 picks in the draft can fill a lot of the holes you mention. And no team is entirely without holes.

Bill Walsh in his book (The Score Takes Care of Itself) talks very eloquently about the intentional execution of his rebuilding plan for the 49ers. Walsh (as both HC and GM) went 2-14 his first season. But he got rid of his excuse-ridden vets and brought in a bunch of young guys who fit his culture. That worked out okay. When Pete Carroll and John Schneider took over the 'Hawks they turned over the entire roster in two years (save two players). All that transition was difficult and Pete had a losing record his first two years in Seattle. Then he won a SB in his 4th season. Are you saying rebuilds are never done on purpose but instead happen only by accident???