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Nice article - really love the enthusiasm! And I like your memories of some of Allen's defining plays. But, for me, the article would have been even better if it didn't read like a bunch of bullet points instead of a story. A 1 or 2 sentence paragraph is okay here and there but, as a reader, I'd like some flowing narrative utilizing fuller paragraphs. But I like that there's nothing wishy-washing about your position. You have the courage to uncompromisingly state where you stand.

Bills 30, Raiders 20. A solid victory but nothing on the epic scale of the 51-3 thrashing. I really thought the Bills would win the SB after that. Though I didn't actually see the game - only read about it afterwards. No TV in the middle of the Arabian Desert in those days. I think we'll see more RPO from the Bills than we have the last two weeks.

As I recall, we had the lowest active cap spending in the league that year. Few pricey contracts because there was little talent. Full rebuilding mode. We're spending much more this year because we have much better players.

Don't crows eat batard? Not the other way around? batard /bəˈtärd/ noun a short loaf of French bread having an oval or oblong shape. "I picked up a rustic batard from my favorite grocer"

I think you're providing a good defense of DVOA. But I remain skeptical. Scenarios like the ones I mention above still bother me. And from what I understand, Shatz and FO don't actually break down game tape. They rely entirely on box score data. They take those numbers and contextualize them: down and distance, game clock, and so on. There are advantages to that approach but issues as well. The full context can't be quantified. There's scheme, playcalls, officiating, full & partial injuries, momentum, leadership, and all sorts of other human variables that effect the (statistical) performance of a player and the outcome of a game. While I think examining DVOA can provide some insight, I think the human brain is still more capable at evaluating the totality of a team's performance in all it's complexity. To put it another way, if I think Josh Allen has taken an important leap forward and Schatz still insists that he's a subpar QB, I'll trust my eyes before I trust Schatz's metrics.

Interesting point. You say that as a season progresses, DVOA becomes more accurate. But so do you and I. Has their statistical modeling really surpassed the intellect of an informed fan? Maybe because I'm not into betting or fantasy football, I don't see their utility yet.

Some cats overvalue picks. How many 1st round picks never become NFL stars? Diggs was a legit star. Proven at the NFL level. It was a great trade as we all know now.

Thurman, you're an intelligent poster so let me ask... Imagine that the top 50 posters at TBD predict the W-L record for every team and their results are combined. And then the statistical geeks at FO predicted the W-L record for every team. Who would more accurately predict the season? Personally, I think it would be roughly a toss-up. But if I had to bet, I'd bet on TBD. I think the TBD posters better appreciate the human element in the NFL. Team X has a new offensive coordinator whose skill set matches the squad. Team Y fired their lousy HC and replaced him with someone much more capable. The Bills signed Stephon Diggs who was the missing piece for Allen & Daboll and creates mismatches that Allen can take advantage of. You say DVOA is meaningful but far from perfect. DVOA can predict the outcome of games/seasons with some degree of accuracy that's better than chance. But so can you and I - and everyone else here. Given its imperfections, I'm not sure what DVOA brings to the table. Trivia. Did you know that a 4 yard run on 1st and 10 is scored as a failure by FO while a 4 yard run on 2nd and 6 is scored as a success for DVOA purposes? I'm not sure how many OCs would agree with this. Here's another scenario. Your team is down by 2 points. It's 3rd and 32 and time is running out. You need 20 yards to get into FG position. Things seem hopeless. Then your QB fires a perfect 31 yard pass to a toe-tapping receiver. Clock is stopped with plenty of time for the winning kick. That pass is scored as a failure because by FO rules, any 3rd or 4th down play that doesn't pick up a first down is a failure ("on third or fourth down, only gaining a new first down is considered success"). You say the FO folks are open-minded about their mistakes. Maybe as they fine-tune their scoring system and algorithms, they'll get better at this.

I think OJ is underrated as a football player. I don't think he just might be the best RB of all time (neck and neck with Jim Brown), I think you can make a case for him being the best football player of all time. Back when the best athletes became RBs and defenses were designed to stop the run first, OJ was in a league of his own. In 1973 he nearly doubled the output of the next best guy. As a QB, Brady never did that. But I also believe we ought to give our children heroes who are honorable and not just talented. Instead of honoring confederate generals, narcistic entertainers, and guys like OJ, we ought to honor teachers, Medal of Honor winners, civil rights activists and emergency responders. Bob Kalsu is a hero and deserving of the Wall of Fame. OJ is not.

The chart of worst DVOA of 3-0 teams (1985-2020) toward the beginning of the article cracks me up. It lists teams with crappy DVOAs that - nonetheless - start the season with three consecutive wins. Then the chart shows their final season W-L record. If DVOA was a meaningful statistic, you'd expect these teams with crap DVOAs to finish the season poorly. Yet most of them do the opposite and finish with a good season record. So what's the point of DVOA if it doesn't tell us which teams will win and which won't. At the end of the day, Win-Loss record is the only stat that means anything. Later, Shatz writes this gem of a paragraph: "One more thing on the subject of the Bills, since I enjoy picking fights with their fans so much. There's absolutely no denying that Josh Allen has been fantastic this season. He even has a positive (3.7%) completion rate over expectation according to NFL Next Gen Stats! We're told that we should have known that Allen was ready to take the leap this season. I certainly didn't hear that expectation from any film experts this offseason, but the numbers especially don't suggest that a huge leap forward was coming." That's the thing with statistics. They describe the past, not the future. And football is played by people, not numbers. Throw in the human element and sometimes wonderful things happen. Allen is coached well and is dedicated to his craft. Most Bills fans expected Allen to take a step/leap forward this year because we could see the progress in his trade that the number crunchers couldn't encapsulate. And not just Bills fans, if Schatz didn't hear optimism from the film experts this offseason, he didn't listen to many.

It often takes two to get a sack. One to flush the QB, the other to make the tackle. Jerry is moving the QB off his spot often enough. But the QB just moves to a new spot and throws a completion.

The Nickel has been the NFL's base defense for several years. Last year teams lined up in Nickel 56% of the time and their "base" defense only 27% of the time. Playing defense is as important as its ever been because you still have to score more points than the opponent so you have to slow/stop the other team's scoring. Apparently McD thought the Nickel was the best way to slow the Rams down. So convinced that he played Nickel pretty much every play which was a surprise. But you're right. We didn't have the personnel to make it work. A couple years ago we had the lowest paid roster in the NFL and arguably the least talented. Phase 1 of Beane's rebuilding plan was to get the right coach in place and fix the salary cap. That's been done. Now he's going to continue to build/fine tune the roster. The rebuild isn't yet complete. https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2020/defensive-personnel-analysis-2019

How can we know that? Even with Covid-empty stadiums, we can't hear what players are saying to each other on the field, on the sidelines, in the locker room. My sense of player leadership always comes from what the players themselves are saying because they actually know what's going on. And I just haven't heard enough about the leadership dynamic this year from the players to confidently form an opinion. I can see that the defense isn't playing as well this year so far as last year. But I don't see players missing assignments as much as I see players getting beat. That's a talent problem more than a leadership problem.

As a fan, I have little idea what goes on in the video/meeting rooms, on the sideline, on the playing field, or in the locker room. You may be right about a lack of leadership. But we can only speculate.

I respectfully disagree. D will always be important. To win you have to score more than the other team. So you have to find ways to score a lot and to prevent the other team from scoring a lot. Defense will always be exactly equal to offense in terms of importance.

I really like Peter King. He's got access to a ton of players, coaches, and execs and can write better than the average sportswriter. It's true that despite all that, his analyses and predictions are often wrong. I remember when we first hired Buddy Nix to be our GM, King thought we should have gone instead after a bright up-and-comer named Doug Whaley who he believed would become a great GM. So I don't pay much attention to his predictions but his insider information is awesome. This was the first I heard of Allen's relationship with Romo.

I have no reason to apologize since I was always hopeful but the linked article was kind of amusing.

When I cast my imaginary ballot for the Hall of Fame, I ask myself, "When he played, did I know he was a Hall of Famer?" Watching Bruce Smith play, for example, it was clear to me that he should be in the Hall of Fame some day. I, um, NEVER felt that way about Fitz when I watched him play. I like the guy. I admire the guy - he's made a great career for himself after entering the NFL with a very humble skill set. And I give him credit. It took years but he eventually became a good QB. He just never became a great QB. The poor guy always seemed to be a placeholder - the QB a team settles for until someone better comes along. All that said, just because it's nearly impossible not to love the guy, I voted 'First Ballot.'

Color me unimpressed by this article. The author says that some metrics are highly variable while others are more stable and predictive - but offers no evidence or analysis. He goes on to note that "Allen's numbers are great in the unstable, less predictive metrics and middle in the road in their stable, more predictive counterparts." He concludes that Allen is likely to return to his norm of 2018 and 2019. This analysis precludes the whole idea of progress. For example, he argues that passing efficiency from a clean pockets is both stable and predictive. I'm sure if you're looking at a QB in mid-career that's true. But don't tell me that young QBs don't often get better at passing efficiency from a clean pocket over time. The author, btw, never mentions whether or not Allen has made progress in the predictive metrics from 2018 to now. He doesn't look to see if there's any upward trend. If these metrics are truly predictive, wouldn't we expect an upward trend to continue? Furthermore, he makes the ridiculous argument that Allen achieved his statistical heights this year against weak opponents. How - statistically speaking - do we know the Jets and Fins have weak defenses at this point in the season? Not counting the Bills game, each had only played one opponent. What conclusions can you base off of that? Both the Jets and Fins defenses may have had bad statistical performances against the Bills simply because Allen and the Bills offense are that good. We just don't know yet. Fitz, Drew Brees, Alex Smith, Rich Gannon, Jim Plunkett, Len Dawson and many other QBs improved over time. Steve Deberg had a 40.0 passer rating in his first year as a starter. He only got better after that with a peak rating of 96.3 as a 12 year veteran. Early career stats often are NOT predictive of future performance. Players sometimes just get better. They eye test seems to say that Allen is indeed getting better with his touch, deep ball, mechanics, and ability to find the open receiver. The signs are certainly hopeful but I don't think two games is enough to rush to any conclusions, pro or con.

I think you meant to say... Aaron Donald is no Ed Oliver but he's damn good.

When a pickpocket walks down the street, all he notices is pockets. When a horny man walks down the street, all he notices is who he wants to do. Our paradigms and desires shape our perceptions. There are Bills fans who are not Murphy fans. They tend to notice his flaws and are less likely to see his strengths.

No disrespect to Knox and the blocks of ice he calls hands, why not line up in a 10 formation when your four best receivers are wide receivers? With the speed and talent our wide outs have, and the arm Josh has, we force opposing defenses to defend the entire length and breadth of the field. That's a tall order. I got to imagine this will eventually benefit the running game as well.

I thought Diggs was a fantastic pickup. But I also thought his production might be a little off just because (1) we have other legit targets, and (2) Josh hasn't put up big passing numbers over the course of his short career. But I think Daboll's, Josh's, and DIgg's wildest fantasies are coming true - at least thru Week 2. I never expected Allen to be #1 in passing yards and Diggs #1 in receiving yards at this point. It's an awesome surprise!

This is right on. The things that stopped our two third quarter drives yesterday had nothing to do with scheme or preparation. Those mistakes could have happened in any quarter but they just happened to happen in the third.

I think 2020 3rd quarter lack of scoring is a red herring. The Bills are 3rd in the NFL in yards, 8th in scoring so far this year. The offense has been fine. I think the lack of scoring in the 3rd quarter is a meaningless statistical aberration. To suggest that we're continuing a multi year trend is premature. We've only played two games and this is not the Bills of past years. Daboll has fully implemented his offense. Allen has seemingly mature as a QB. And the offense has new weapons this year. I think we need to wait a few games to make any characterizations about the 2020 Bills offense. I'm pretty sure it won't have the same traits as the 2018 offense when the 3rd quarter problems began. More specifically, I don't think the 3rd quarter drought will continue. Let's wait and see.