hondo in seattle

I'm not sure how exactly they define "pressure" but there may be two kinds: 1. Jerry Hughes beats his man with a swim move, pressures the QB who steps up to avoid Hughes and then gets sacked by Oliver. 2. Jerry Hughes beats his man with a swim move, pressures the QB who steps up to avoid the sack and delivers a strike for a first down. Pressure is good. Sacks are better. To get sacks, it helps to have multiple points of pressure and that hadn't been happening nearly enough earlier this season.

In a battle between two bad defenses, I think the Seahawks score more. But I can't officially predict a loss, even if I'm preparing myself spiritually, psychologically and emotionally for one. So... Allen finds his touch: Bills 34, Hawks 30 in a shootout reminiscent of the No Punt game.

Nix thought he could get Wilson in the beginning of the 4th. He was wrong. And that makes me wonder how smart GMs are about other GMs on draft day. Let me explain with a military analogy. Army intelligence guys & gals are not spies - not James Bond types like you see in the movies. Their expertise is the enemy. For example, if we're thinking about invading a foreign country, the intel guys will tell us how they'll fight and what they'll fight with. They know about force strength, weaponry, tactics, logistics, and so on. We'll even sit down and do wargames on a big map board reviewing different scenarios and decision trees. While most of the officers involved in an exercise like this will play our side, the intel guys will play the enemy. I wonder if NFL GMs do something like this. How much do they wargame the draft? How much do the study their enemy (the other 31 GMs) in order to anticipate their moves? If Nix had understood the Seahawks a little better, he could have gone for Wilson in the 3rd. NFL teams ought to have intel guys on staff who are experts on our enemies. My original title actually mimicked the title of the article I was referencing. But I changed it - just for you - to make it a bit clearer.

Just because it was in the Seattle Times today. I thought it was an interesting article so I decided to share it with my Bills brothers and sisters.

This is old news but the Seattle Times ran a nice article today about how the Bills almost picked Wilson. It sounds like David Lee really wanted him: Quarterbacks coach David Lee made a video presentation to offensive coordinator Chan Gailey showing that Wilson’s height wouldn’t be the problem some were thinking, showing “that Wilson’s over-the-top throwing motion made him deliver the ball taller than 6-foot-7 Brock Osweiler, who had a lower release,” per The Athletic. https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/seahawks/as-russell-wilson-finally-gets-to-play-in-buffalo-its-time-to-recall-how-the-bills-once-viewed-him-as-their-potential-savior/

They're giving us a 46% chance of winning this week - better odds than in some other corners. But their historic ELO rankings don't do Buffalo justice, IMHO. Buffalo attained its highest ELO of 1705 rating in 1991. Even the undefeated Buffalo All-Americans and the AFL championship Bills never surpassed an ELO of 1700. Most NFL teams have a year (or several) where their ELO ranking was higher than the Bill all-time high of 1705. What the Bills attained under Levy, Kelly, Smith & Company wasn't particularly special according to 538. A good team - maybe a very good team - but not a great one. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/complete-history-of-the-nfl/

I hate to be mean but... What if instead we traded Klein for an 8th round pick and to sweeten the deal we threw in the bag of donuts, hot pretzel, and hot dog. And maybe some wings?

When your team is a miserable 6-2, the entire roster and coaching staff should be on the hot seat!

I just don't care. I wish the Bills were 8-0. I hope they win out. And more than anything, I hope they win the Super Bowl. But I don't care about the spotlight. Since pretty much the only sports I watch is Bills games - including pregame and halftime - I barely even notice whether or not we're getting any. I truly couldn't care less what the pundits think. You folks on this site are more knowledgeable about the Bills than the national media guys anyway. If I want good useful analysis to help form my own opinions, I come here. The national hype is unimportant.

I live surrounded by 12th men and woman who have pitied my Bills fandom over the years. And I gotta admit, when I first looked ahead to the Seahawks game after we put away the Pats, I sadly thought "blowout." But a couple of thoughts... The Bills outgain their opponents by about 14 yards per game. The 'Hawks on the other hand, are outgained by their opponents by about 47 yards per game. Their defense isn't just bad. It's really bad. From a yardage standpoint, their D is more bad than their O is good. From a yardage differential standpoint, we have the better team. Some pundits seem to think the Bills are an average team that lucked into their 6 wins while the Wilson-led Seahawks deservedly earned their 6 wins. The algorithm used by FiveThirtyEight paints a somewhat different picture. While the Seahawks are 4th in ELO, the Bills aren't far behind at 9th. 538 gives the Bills a reasonable 46% chances of winning this weekend. Roughly speaking, it's a tossup.

This was uncalled for. PatsFanNH was classy - congratulating us on a bad day for his team during a bad year.

This is probably true. But Bill sometimes surprises. If he see the Bills loading the box, he might just let Cam throw the ball downfield - wind, rain, and all. Its not like our secondary or pass rush have been good this year.

When we've won, we've won because of our passing game. That was clearly true the first four victories and at least partially true during the Jets game. (Against the Jets, the D finally did their share - while our 6 scoring drives were primarily a function of our passing attack). When the only thing you're doing right - passing the ball - is going to be erased by the weather, you're in trouble. But are we really? I haven't seen enough of Josh in bad weather games to really get a feel for his ability to handle wind and rain. But if anyone can sling a ball through the gales of Orchard Park, it's Josh. Fingers crossed.

Curious, the 'experts' at Patriots.com don't, for the most part, see the game the same way Simms does. Paul Perillo, Patriots.com: Pick: Bills 26, Patriots 17 Buffalo is now the favorite and the Patriots just don't have enough offensively to change that … unless the weather becomes a big factor. Mike Dussault, Patriots.com: Pick: Patriots 16, Bills 13 The Patriots backs are against the wall in Buffalo and with weather expected to impact the game it might be just the boost the Pats need. With wet and windy conditions it's all about the run game and special teams as the Patriots find a way to grind out a big win. Erik Scalavino, Patriots.com: Pick: Bills 27, Patriots 10 Weather looks like it's going to be a factor in Buffalo Sunday, with heavy winds and rain likely making this even more of a ground-based game than it might have been, at least from the Bills' perspective. This might benefit New England initially, because the strength of the Patriots offense is clearly its rushing attack. And with health issues at wide receiver, the Patriots might need to rely on their running backs even more this weekend. However, they're running straight into the buzz saw that its Buffalo, a talented team that's poised to overtake New England as perennial AFC East Champs. If the Bills want to get there, they need to win this game, and they're in a great position to do so. Megan O'Brien, Patriots.com: Pick: Bills 21, Patriots 3 Ugly game. The Patriots offense can't do much of anything. Defense sets up a score on a turnover, but other than that, not much positive to take away.

Thurm, I did open my argument saying it would be simplistic - to match Simm's simplistic summary. In fact, I do worry about this game. The Bills D has only played one good game this year and that was against the lowly Jets. We can't get to the QB, can't cover wideouts, can't stop the run. Offensively, things have been somewhat better but we've been one-dimensional. Here's another simplistic point: As Josh goes, so goes the team. When Josh plays well, we win. When he doesn't, we lose. With that in mind, we have a few things to worry about: (1) The weather isn't going to help our passing game - though I'm not sure how much it'll hurt it. (2) Irrespective of weather, Josh - much improved this year - still has bad days. (3) Those bad days seem to be brought about by good defensive scheming. (4) Belichick is a scheming mastermind. Despite the difference in records, the outcome is not a foregone conclusion. If Cam gets hot, as you say, the Pats could easily win. I hope Josh shows the patience that he showed against the Jets and takes whatever Belichick gives him. While that approach didn't result in any TDs last week, it's far better than trying to force throws into coverage or waiting for five seconds for someone to break free downfield. This NE defense this year just isn't good enough to defend everything. Gilmore's injury hopefully makes them even more vulnerable. I also hope Feliciano starts. His presence in a game against a team with a poor run D hopefully sparks our running attack.

I generally like Simms but this is so simplistic. So let me respond with simplistic counter arguments. The Bills will have a balanced attack this game this Sunday. The Bills passing attack is one of the most prolific in the NFL this year. And against the Pats, they'll finally find success on the ground because the Pats run defense is putrid (6th worst in the NFL). Expect the Bills to be effective on the ground as well as in the air. At the same time, the Patriots offense will remain one-dimensional. The Pats dysfunctional, 28th ranked passing attack isn't likely to do much harm. So Frazier and the Bills D will be able to focus almost entirely on the run. Statistically speaking, the Bills are clearly a better team than the Pats. At this point in the season, the Bills have gained more yards/game, given up fewer yards/game, achieved a better point differential, and found more ways to win. Advantage: Bills.

Both teams have real weaknesses. But Bills are a bit better overall and probably want it more: the Pats already know 2020 sucks but the Bills are fighting for Destiny. Bills 23. Pats 20.

It doesn't make sense to you and me. It makes sense to NFL GMs. There's this notion - partially accurate - that you can't win without a franchise QB. When the top QBs aren't available as free agents, you look at a guy like Cousin and you wonder, "Can I build an offense around him? Can he become a franchise QB?" And you want to believe the answer is "yes" because your options are limited. So it's a kind of wishful-thinking. One driven by an overwhelming sense of urgency. If owners were in charge of roster and salary cap decisions, I think the QB pay structure would be different. The bidding wars would be less intense. The owners would take a longer view and say, "Cousins isn't the guy. Rather than shell out millions of my hard earned money for a guy who's not the answer, I'm going to wait until something better turns up." But if you're a GM with maybe 3 years to build your team before the fans and - more importantly - the owner lose their patience, I think you're sorely tempted to pay whatever it takes to get a QB that might - just might - save your job. Incidentally, if I were a GM and had job security, I'd be drafting QBs every year until I found one because I do believe FA QBs are, in fact, over-priced.

Yeah, it seems like some kind of anti-Buffalo sentiment. I don't have a lot of experience with other fanbases but I think we complain about average. Which is what I also think about Allen and McD. Their complaining doesn't stand out in any way. The top three finishes in all three categories strikes me as odd and makes me wonder about the methodology of the poll. They say they surveyed 5,000 fans across the country. Were most of them fans of our AFCE rivals? Something just doesn't smell right.

This is curious because we learned in another post that the Bills were rated dead last in hurry percentage. Our DE's are winning their battles but not hurrying the QB. Odd.

Thanks for posting. I hadn't seen this. And, unfortunately, the first thing I think of when I think Special Teams is Bass's misses. I knew Roberts and Bojo were doing well but I didn't realize they were doing this well. Bass is a rookie so I'm still holding out hope for him. His leg seems strong enough - hopefully he can fix the accuracy/consistency.

Good luck to you. I once watched a Bills-Raiders game with a friend who was a Raiders fan. It kind of sucked because I couldn't celebrate with my usual passion & enthusiasm. I didn't want to be a jerk and add to his sorrows. To take the sting off the Raiders loss, I acted like I didn't care all that much and commiserated with him. I'm not a super-animated guy in my normal life but I am during Bills games. So I'd rather watch a game with Bills strangers (in a sports bar, for example) than with friends who are fans of the opposing team.

In a more perfect world, soldiers, sailors, teachers, first responders, etc. would get paid more than football players because they contribute more to America. But in a capitalistic sports economy, as it exists right now, QBs are paid exactly what they should get paid. Because QB value is whatever the market will bear. I think things would be different if GMs signed 20 year contracts. In that scenario, GMs would be more deliberate and patient. But in actuality a GM is typically given about three years to produce a winner. So he can't wait long to find a QB in the draft. And if he has no quick luck there, he's going to spend every penny he has on a FA QB because the clock ticks fast in the Win Now League. And without a viable QB, a GM is screwed.

I've asserted something similar in other threads. The Bills D - like the Pats D - was very reliant on good discipline and teamwork. Last year on the Bills, guys communicated well and didn't often miss their assignments. That was a tribute to the coaching of McD and Frazier. We're not seeing the same discipline and teamwork this season. Guys miss assignments, over-pursue, etc. This year, thanks to COVID, the NFL is more like sandlot football than it's been in many, many years. In sandlot, it's less about discipline and teamwork and more about athleticism. The team with the most & best playmakers wins. The Bills don't have a ton of true, athletically gifted playmakers on defense and it shows.

Or my all-time favorite, Harvey Johnson. He did so well his first time (1-10) that we brought him back after John Rauch (7-20) was fired in 1970. The second time around, Johnson was even better - going 1-13.