hondo in seattle

Good article. I was at the game and noticed the Bills were doing something different on offense. But with my eyes mostly following the ball, I didn't completely understand what I was seeing. This article explained a lot.

An interesting comment from a good breakdown of our offense that Yolo posted: "Through weeks 1-4, the Bills were in 11 personnel (one back, one tight end) or 10 personnel (one back, no tight ends) on 76 percent of their offensive snaps, a league-high... The Bills were (and are) signaling everything. They know they’re throwing the ball. The defense knows they’re throwing the ball. And the Bills don’t care. Try to stop us." This is kind of what I meant when I said the Bills have a QB-centric offense. Despite defenses knowing the Bills are a Pass First & Second offense, the Allen-led Bills lead the league in scoring. I say that qualifies Allen as a top five QB - certainly better than average. www.readoptional.substack.com/p/bills-josh-allen-daboll-offense-scheme

Temptations or Edwin Starr (related to Bart Starr)? I find that interesting. Maybe ELO is better. QB ratings ought to be predictive. And they shouldn't be predictive of future QB ratings. They should have some kind of correlation to scoring because that's the whole point. Offenses need to score. Allen's lower QB score isn't predictive of 30+ point games. Yet that's what the Bills are producing. The folks rating Allen as average, how do they explain the high point output? Moss and Singletary? Our great offensive line? It doesn't matter if the wideouts are good if the average QB can't get them the ball. Regardless of Allen's inefficiencies, he's leading the team to the end zone where other QBs are not. Here's the thing about Josh: he might look ineffective on one drive but then lead the team to TDs on the next two. Another QB may complete a higher percentage of passes but not lead his team to any TDs at all on the same three drives. Which QB do you want? Which gives you the better chance of winning? Which has the better rating?

What's interesting about this is that I don't think we have a dominant offensive line. I think Josh has tremendous pocket presence and athleticism, and tends to make good decisions (step up/sideways, throw the ball away, run).

I noticed that Allen is currently ranked #6 in QBR and #14 in Passer Rating. I've never been a huge fan of either but now, more than ever, I question how they rank QBs. Allen is the offensive centerpiece of the highest scoring team in the NFL. Yet he's not a top five QB? Maybe not top 10? Maybe just average? I get it. His completion percentage isn't what it should be. And there's been some really good QB play this year so other guys get ranked higher. Still, the goal of any QB is top put points on the board. Allen does that better than anyone. It's worth mentioning that the Bills don't run a balanced offense. It's a QB-centric offense. When we do run, it's either because the D is selling out to stop the pass and/or to remind the D we actually have RBs who we hand the brick to now and then. Or we're letting Josh run the ball. At the beginning and end of the day, this offense is about Josh Allen. And despite being the driving force of the most prolific offense in the NFL this season, the ranking systems don't rate Allen as a top tier QB. Somehow the rating systems should evaluate how well a QB moves his team down the field and into the end zone (or FG position). Completion percentage doesn't tell the whole store. Nor yardage totals. Nor yards per attempt. Nor TD and INT percentages. If Passer Rating and QBR don't in some way measure points produced by a QB, what good are they? Because that's what a coach - or fan - really wants to know. How well does a QB lead his team to paydirt? Allen is currently the best at that. And the rating systems should reflect that.

I said 13-4 at the beginning of the season. I'm sticking with that. The O has been disappointing in a weird way. Sometimes it looks inefficient. Yet Josh and the boys score in bundles. The D has been better than expected. I thought they'd bounce back some after an off year last year. But I didn't expect them to be #1 at this point. #1 scoring offense, #1 scoring defense... heady stuff. I get why others are projecting more than 13 wins. But I'm an old, snake-bitten, wide-right, four-Super-Bowl-watching, drought survivor. I don't want to expect too much only to be disappointed.

"The emails, which span from 2010 until 2018, when the coach signed a 10-year deal with Las Vegas after years as a "Monday Night Football" analyst, include Gruden calling Goodell a "f-----" and "clueless anti-football p----," criticizing Goodell for allegedly pressuring then-Rams coach Jeff Fisher to draft "queers," and messages to Allen that featured photos of topless Washington Football Team cheerleaders."

A little long-winded but well-written. Liked the way you kept up with the dragon metaphor. I left the game when the Bills went up 38-20. There was no good excuse. But the kid had school today and the wife wasn't feeling well. Traffic wasn't too bad since many left earlier and many others would stay till the end. The Chiefs fans I interacted with, btw, were very gracious despite the circumstances. In fact, most KC fans I know were predicting a Bills victory. They felt our D could slow down their O but their D would fail to slow down our O. Good assessment.

I always liked his physicality & athleticism. But his hands of stone made me think he would never be the guy we needed at TE. I might have been wrong and will gladly sign the form.

Speaking of meaningful stats.... The Bills are 3-0 in games I've attended. I'm going to Arrowhead tomorrow.

Thanks Zero. I just moved to KC three months ago and this gives me a great idea where I should eat next. I've already been to your top 3 BBQ places - all great. Looking forward to exploring the rest of your list. I haven't had great Mexican here yet but will try your suggestions.

First Bills game I'll see in person in 10+ years and I'm gonna be rained on. Figures. Good news... I've only seen the Bills play 3 times live - they won all three.

Bills 31, Chiefs 28 Both defenses have trouble stopping the opposing offense - ours just has a little less.

Mahomes - his four INTs, including a pick 6 - are going to decide the game.

I hate rap. I loved this.

Power rankings are an interesting idea. Win-Loss records can be deceiving because of strength of schedule and other reasons. So let experts go through all the data and rank the best teams. Cool idea. The write ups are interesting and informative sometimes. Well, we rarely learn anything new about the Bills but I do sometimes learn something new about the teams I don't follow. In the end, though, power rankings are just someone's opinion. So I don't get too excited when the Bills are ranked high or disappointed when the Bills are ranked low. My own evaluation of the Bills is what matters to me. All the way up until game day when the only thing that matters is the scoreboard.

Beane knew Allen was better under pressure all along. That's why he's built such a porous offensive line.

Beth was good. Knew what was happening on the field and could competently describe it. Voice sounded dramatic or excited at appropriate times. I don't get all the negativity.

Zero, thanks for stopping in and sharing your insights. This will be my first live in-stadium Bills game in 10+ years. It's good to know the 'enemy' a little bit before I show up in Arrowhead. The Bills lost to your guys twice last season. The Chiefs might be in our heads a little. And while the Chiefs have some flaws, so do the Bills - starting with the OL. It'll be fun to get heckled at the game - more fun if the heckling comes during a Bills victory.

I agree with pretty much all of this. The salary cap forces GMs to prioritize. And Beane focused on the skill positions in the passing game. He also picked up a couple of decent 3rd round RBs. And he's brought in a truckload of offensive linemen on a budget over the past few years and kept the best ones. You're right, our OL depth is actually pretty good even if our starting lineup is far from great. I've always thought if I was a GM, I'd want a couple Pro Bowl quality lineman and then some cost-effective JAGs. We have mostly JAGs right now with a couple maybe above average. As you say, none of them are elite. I want a couple elite guys to protect our $258 million dollar man. I'd guess Beane wants the same but things just haven't fallen in place either in free agency or the draft. I hope he makes the OL a bigger priority this upcoming offseason.

While some folks were talking about OL continuity during the offseason, I was thinking about acquisition. Beane's doing a great job overall but I had really hoped that he would upgrade the offensive line. This line is a bunch of journeymen that aren't good at pass pro and - based on what we saw last year - even worse at run blocking. I'm with BubbaT and really hope we upgrade the line next year.

I went to college during the disco era and have hated popular music ever since. I'd rather see Jimi Hendrix, Janis Joplin, Jerry Garcia, Jim Morrison & the Doors... Now that would be a halftime show! Maybe they could add Kurt Cobain for the younger crowd.

Agreed. I wish Motor would never drop a pass and Moss would never lay a football on the field, but they're good complementary backs. Both are willing blockers. Both are capable, if not spectacular, runners. They're talented enough that most DCs won't sell out completely to stop the pass - though Spagnuolo did in the AFC championship game. Like Jabott, I think Daboll needs to be smart. When defenses are making passing hard and running easy, we need to run - aggressively. Otherwise, let Josh light up the sky. The era of the running back expired with a whimper.

There's no way of actually knowing this but I don't think Tom would have become as great as he's become without Belichick and his coaching staff. But at this point, yeah, Brady doesn't need Bill anymore. But let's not fail to mention the good coaches and players that surround Brady in Tampa. Brady does need a good supporting cast and he's found one. Bill, like any HC, needs a good QB and he has not found one. Since he also functions as the GM, that's squarely on his shoulders. In fact, it's his fault Brady left.

When the Bills took OJ with the first pick of the 1969 draft, it was the fifth time that decade that a running back was the overall top pick. One other top pick was an OT who was going to blow holes open for RBs. And two were defenders who were highly talented at making RBs miserable. Only one QB – Terry Baker - was taken first in the NFL draft in the 60s. The 1960s still revolved around the RB. In contrast, in the 2010s, QBs were the top pick 8 of 10 years. A running back hasn’t been the first player chosen in the draft since Ki-Jana Carter in 1995. Thanks to changes in rules and the evolution of schemes, the NFL is more and more a passing league. And that familiar trend is likely to continue for years to come. Passing will be even more important five years from now than it is today. Beane and McDermott know this. And, look, of course they’d love to build a team that's strong in all areas: running, passing, stopping the run, stopping the pass. But the salary cap presents real limitations. So, clearly understanding the trajectory of the game, Beane and McD built the Bills with one thing in mind: The Pass. Offense. McD recruited Daboll, a guy known to excel at passing concepts but not so much at running schemes, to coordinate the offense. And if you look at our offensive linemen, almost all of them are better at pass pro than road grading for RBs. Which makes sense when you think about the immense amount of money and draft capital we've spent on our QBs and wideouts. Heck, even our backup QB is a former 1st round draft pick and Pro Bowler. Our RBs, on the other hand, are third round after-thoughts. Our O is built to pass. Defense. It always strikes me as odd when people refer to the Bills as a 4-3 defense. The Bills are a Nickel D. We employed the Nickel an astounding 91% of the time last season – the most in the NFL by a wide margin. In fact, it was the most in the hundred-year history of the NFL. One of our LBs – Milano – is a converted high school safety who excels in coverage. When we drafted the other LB, Edmunds, there were arguments about whether he should play inside or outside. And I get the folks who didn't like Edmunds on the inside. He's hardly a MLB run-stuffing thumper cast from the same mold as Chuck “Concrete Charlie” Bednarick or Dick “Stone Maniac” Butkus. He’s a more of a finesse player – better at covering than tackling. In fact, Edmunds is exactly what McD and Frazier want for this defense of theirs that doesn't utilize inside and outside linebackers in the traditional sense. Our D is built to stop the pass. So the next time I throw the blue cheese – never ranch – at the tv because Daboll just called a pass on 4th and short or Edmunds didn’t shed his blocker and didn’t violently obliterate the ball carrier in the backfield, I’ll remind myself of this simple truth. The Bills are all about one thing: The Pass.