hondo in seattle

I remember when Dan Fouts was pretty regularly throwing for 300+ yards when that was still considered a big deal. For a couple years, he was the most feared/dangerous QB in the NFL and his Passer Rating didn't necessarily reflect that.

The Bills had the highest scoring offense in 1975. Fergie was the QB. And I wouldn't expect Fergie to be rated as a Top 5 passer. The RB, of course, was OJ and the Juice had a lot to do with the offense's production. But this is different. The 2021 Bills are built around Josh Allen and Josh is getting his team into the endzone. Isn't that, ultimately, what a QB is supposed to do? And, so far, no one has done it better. I'm no statistician and really don't know how to build a better rating system than Passer Rating or QBR. But D.L. Hot-Flamethrower mentions ELO has Allen at #1. Maybe they're looking at stats that better correlate to scoring. GoBills808 notes that Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt (ANY/A) is the stat that best correlates to winning. If true, then that stat should be the heart and soul of any QB ranking system.

Good article. I was at the game and noticed the Bills were doing something different on offense. But with my eyes mostly following the ball, I didn't completely understand what I was seeing. This article explained a lot.

An interesting comment from a good breakdown of our offense that Yolo posted: "Through weeks 1-4, the Bills were in 11 personnel (one back, one tight end) or 10 personnel (one back, no tight ends) on 76 percent of their offensive snaps, a league-high... The Bills were (and are) signaling everything. They know they’re throwing the ball. The defense knows they’re throwing the ball. And the Bills don’t care. Try to stop us." This is kind of what I meant when I said the Bills have a QB-centric offense. Despite defenses knowing the Bills are a Pass First & Second offense, the Allen-led Bills lead the league in scoring. I say that qualifies Allen as a top five QB - certainly better than average. www.readoptional.substack.com/p/bills-josh-allen-daboll-offense-scheme

Temptations or Edwin Starr (related to Bart Starr)? I find that interesting. Maybe ELO is better. QB ratings ought to be predictive. And they shouldn't be predictive of future QB ratings. They should have some kind of correlation to scoring because that's the whole point. Offenses need to score. Allen's lower QB score isn't predictive of 30+ point games. Yet that's what the Bills are producing. The folks rating Allen as average, how do they explain the high point output? Moss and Singletary? Our great offensive line? It doesn't matter if the wideouts are good if the average QB can't get them the ball. Regardless of Allen's inefficiencies, he's leading the team to the end zone where other QBs are not. Here's the thing about Josh: he might look ineffective on one drive but then lead the team to TDs on the next two. Another QB may complete a higher percentage of passes but not lead his team to any TDs at all on the same three drives. Which QB do you want? Which gives you the better chance of winning? Which has the better rating?

What's interesting about this is that I don't think we have a dominant offensive line. I think Josh has tremendous pocket presence and athleticism, and tends to make good decisions (step up/sideways, throw the ball away, run).

I noticed that Allen is currently ranked #6 in QBR and #14 in Passer Rating. I've never been a huge fan of either but now, more than ever, I question how they rank QBs. Allen is the offensive centerpiece of the highest scoring team in the NFL. Yet he's not a top five QB? Maybe not top 10? Maybe just average? I get it. His completion percentage isn't what it should be. And there's been some really good QB play this year so other guys get ranked higher. Still, the goal of any QB is top put points on the board. Allen does that better than anyone. It's worth mentioning that the Bills don't run a balanced offense. It's a QB-centric offense. When we do run, it's either because the D is selling out to stop the pass and/or to remind the D we actually have RBs who we hand the brick to now and then. Or we're letting Josh run the ball. At the beginning and end of the day, this offense is about Josh Allen. And despite being the driving force of the most prolific offense in the NFL this season, the ranking systems don't rate Allen as a top tier QB. Somehow the rating systems should evaluate how well a QB moves his team down the field and into the end zone (or FG position). Completion percentage doesn't tell the whole store. Nor yardage totals. Nor yards per attempt. Nor TD and INT percentages. If Passer Rating and QBR don't in some way measure points produced by a QB, what good are they? Because that's what a coach - or fan - really wants to know. How well does a QB lead his team to paydirt? Allen is currently the best at that. And the rating systems should reflect that.

I said 13-4 at the beginning of the season. I'm sticking with that. The O has been disappointing in a weird way. Sometimes it looks inefficient. Yet Josh and the boys score in bundles. The D has been better than expected. I thought they'd bounce back some after an off year last year. But I didn't expect them to be #1 at this point. #1 scoring offense, #1 scoring defense... heady stuff. I get why others are projecting more than 13 wins. But I'm an old, snake-bitten, wide-right, four-Super-Bowl-watching, drought survivor. I don't want to expect too much only to be disappointed.

"The emails, which span from 2010 until 2018, when the coach signed a 10-year deal with Las Vegas after years as a "Monday Night Football" analyst, include Gruden calling Goodell a "f-----" and "clueless anti-football p----," criticizing Goodell for allegedly pressuring then-Rams coach Jeff Fisher to draft "queers," and messages to Allen that featured photos of topless Washington Football Team cheerleaders."

A little long-winded but well-written. Liked the way you kept up with the dragon metaphor. I left the game when the Bills went up 38-20. There was no good excuse. But the kid had school today and the wife wasn't feeling well. Traffic wasn't too bad since many left earlier and many others would stay till the end. The Chiefs fans I interacted with, btw, were very gracious despite the circumstances. In fact, most KC fans I know were predicting a Bills victory. They felt our D could slow down their O but their D would fail to slow down our O. Good assessment.

I always liked his physicality & athleticism. But his hands of stone made me think he would never be the guy we needed at TE. I might have been wrong and will gladly sign the form.

Speaking of meaningful stats.... The Bills are 3-0 in games I've attended. I'm going to Arrowhead tomorrow.

Thanks Zero. I just moved to KC three months ago and this gives me a great idea where I should eat next. I've already been to your top 3 BBQ places - all great. Looking forward to exploring the rest of your list. I haven't had great Mexican here yet but will try your suggestions.

First Bills game I'll see in person in 10+ years and I'm gonna be rained on. Figures. Good news... I've only seen the Bills play 3 times live - they won all three.

Bills 31, Chiefs 28 Both defenses have trouble stopping the opposing offense - ours just has a little less.

Mahomes - his four INTs, including a pick 6 - are going to decide the game.

I hate rap. I loved this.

Power rankings are an interesting idea. Win-Loss records can be deceiving because of strength of schedule and other reasons. So let experts go through all the data and rank the best teams. Cool idea. The write ups are interesting and informative sometimes. Well, we rarely learn anything new about the Bills but I do sometimes learn something new about the teams I don't follow. In the end, though, power rankings are just someone's opinion. So I don't get too excited when the Bills are ranked high or disappointed when the Bills are ranked low. My own evaluation of the Bills is what matters to me. All the way up until game day when the only thing that matters is the scoreboard.

Beane knew Allen was better under pressure all along. That's why he's built such a porous offensive line.

Beth was good. Knew what was happening on the field and could competently describe it. Voice sounded dramatic or excited at appropriate times. I don't get all the negativity.

Zero, thanks for stopping in and sharing your insights. This will be my first live in-stadium Bills game in 10+ years. It's good to know the 'enemy' a little bit before I show up in Arrowhead. The Bills lost to your guys twice last season. The Chiefs might be in our heads a little. And while the Chiefs have some flaws, so do the Bills - starting with the OL. It'll be fun to get heckled at the game - more fun if the heckling comes during a Bills victory.

I agree with pretty much all of this. The salary cap forces GMs to prioritize. And Beane focused on the skill positions in the passing game. He also picked up a couple of decent 3rd round RBs. And he's brought in a truckload of offensive linemen on a budget over the past few years and kept the best ones. You're right, our OL depth is actually pretty good even if our starting lineup is far from great. I've always thought if I was a GM, I'd want a couple Pro Bowl quality lineman and then some cost-effective JAGs. We have mostly JAGs right now with a couple maybe above average. As you say, none of them are elite. I want a couple elite guys to protect our $258 million dollar man. I'd guess Beane wants the same but things just haven't fallen in place either in free agency or the draft. I hope he makes the OL a bigger priority this upcoming offseason.

While some folks were talking about OL continuity during the offseason, I was thinking about acquisition. Beane's doing a great job overall but I had really hoped that he would upgrade the offensive line. This line is a bunch of journeymen that aren't good at pass pro and - based on what we saw last year - even worse at run blocking. I'm with BubbaT and really hope we upgrade the line next year.

I went to college during the disco era and have hated popular music ever since. I'd rather see Jimi Hendrix, Janis Joplin, Jerry Garcia, Jim Morrison & the Doors... Now that would be a halftime show! Maybe they could add Kurt Cobain for the younger crowd.

Agreed. I wish Motor would never drop a pass and Moss would never lay a football on the field, but they're good complementary backs. Both are willing blockers. Both are capable, if not spectacular, runners. They're talented enough that most DCs won't sell out completely to stop the pass - though Spagnuolo did in the AFC championship game. Like Jabott, I think Daboll needs to be smart. When defenses are making passing hard and running easy, we need to run - aggressively. Otherwise, let Josh light up the sky. The era of the running back expired with a whimper.