hondo in seattle

There's a lot to be excited about. This offense has weapons and is led by an amazing QB. But I still have worries about the OL. And we have a new OC as well as new OL and QB coaches. All this newness brings uncertainty. And there's always the chance of injury. I voted 31.1 to 32.0.

Gregg I do and don't disagree. I'm also concerned about the offensive line. But if it's the 2nd round for example, and you see a good 3rd back available and no offensive linemen you like, what do you do? You can't pick a guard just because you want a guard when you have little faith any of the guards available will be viable NFL players. It's all about probabilities. After the 1st round, it's unlikely that any of these players will be any good in the pros. It's better to pick a player at a position of little need if you think he has a fair chance to succeed in the NFL, than a player of high need but little probability.

Professional personnel guys are often wrong when they project the NFL futures of college kids. I won't even pretend to know. What encourages me is that we presumably filled three positions of need: CB; 3rd down/receiving back; punter.

It's an interesting draft because I do agree that we picked up some kids that will be contributors quickly. I think Elam will earn playing time quickly. I think we'll see Cook in certain packages. And I think we'll have a rookie punter.

I heard a GM (Ron Wolf, if I remember correctly) once saying something to the effect that you want difference makers in the draft. You can find jags anywhere. To win championships you need a certain number of Pro Bowl type guys. He went on to say that a draft is successful if you pick two Pro Bowlers - even if your 1st round pick is a bust. If you can consistently get two really good players out of every draft, you'll build a good team. He also said that the chances of getting a Pro Bowler in the 4th round isn't much different than the 7th round. By that time, your chances are long. Anyway, Taron Johnson and Gabe Davis are both good picks by Beane for that round. But it's a small sample size. Would it be realistic to think Beane will perpetually draft players of that value in the 4th round? I don't think any GM is actually that good. So if you're saying we traded away the next Gabe to move up and get Elam, I would disagree. The probability is that this 4th rounder would be a backup. So we traded away a backup to get a starter at a position of need. It was a good move.

This may be true. But they could have taken a different player with their first pick and still gotten Strange later.

I love draft picks. When it comes to draft picks: the more, the better. Pro Bowlers are found in every round. Like lottery tickets, the chances of winning in the draft increases with your number of picks. Generally speaking, it's better to trade down to gain picks than to trade up and lose picks. And, yet, I'm okay with Beane giving up a 4h rounder, maybe needlessly. The Bills badly needed a CB and saw Elam as the last guy on the board who could come in and start for the Bills. While there are good players in every round, typically what you get in the 4th round is a backup who sticks around for a couple years before being cut. So Beane gave up a mediocre backup to be certain he got us a contributor at a position of need.

Beane once said something to the effect that he likes to address all position needs before the draft making it easier to do BPA during the draft. So I really thought he'd sign a CB by now. But Beane knows that, generally speaking, the longer he waits, the lower the price for a FA. The risk of waiting is, of course, that the FA you want will come off the market. I think - maybe - Beane has enough confidence in our current CB depth that he's willing to take that risk?

Wow. Impressive. Much free time on your hands?

I'm still mad Beebe dropped that easy TD!

Cookie Gilchrist. At 254 lbs, he was big and strong enough to block. But still fast and elusive enough to run. His good balance & footwork - and aggressive temperament - would help him succeed both as a blocker and runner.

Exactly right. The chances of getting a starter that late aren't great. The chances of getting a difference maker are even slimmer. There's been statistical studies on this. The 5th, 6th and 7th rounds are not loaded with talent. Though there's usually a Pro Bowler or two buried in there somewhere. But the odds of finding a Pro Bowler in the 7th round are pretty much the same as finding one in the 5th. In either case, it's a long shot. Belichick is effectively doubling his chances of getting a good player. Or very nearly so.

Of the names listed, I'd like Jerry back. But I voted "other" for Wyatt Teller. And if there's some kind of secret medical technology out there that could restore an athlete to his prime, I'd want Bruce, Thurman, one of the Nates (Clements, Odomes) or maybe Butch Byrd. And Joe D, of course. And if the author of "OJ is Innocent and I Can Prove It" is right, and the secret tech exists, I'd piss in my pants with excitement seeing the Juice line up behind Josh Allen.

Sounds amusing. Link?

I don't watch college ball. I get caught up on draft prospects before the draft by watching some highlight film and reading what the gurus say. What I remember about Maybin is that everyone talked about how quick his first step was. It seemed to be his only attribute. And while he was productive for one season, he didn't look worthy of a first round draft pick in his highlight reel. I admit, I did buy into the Mike Williams hype. And I thought JP Losman would be a serviceable starter. In other words, my methodology of evaluating picks has been terribly flawed. But even I had to question Maybin. Everything I read and saw said he wasn't a first-rounder. I could never understand why we drafted him.

Madden for the enthusiasm and knowledge. Cosell for the drama.

Yeah. Lamonica tossed 34 TDs in 1969. NFL MVP, Roman Gabriel, was the next best pro QB that year with 24 TDs. HOFer Fran Tarkenton threw 23. It wasn't close. Lamonica threw 2.4 TDs/game, leading his team to a 12-1-1 record back when RBs were still kings of the gridiron. That year, in fact, a RB (named OJ) was the first pick in the draft. 5 RBs were drafted in the first round in 1969 versus 2 QBs.

I hope they draft the BPA. And I hope the BPA is a CB.

I am an old man Troubled by life's mysteries. Uncertain, the draft.

The only Bills home game I ever attended. Good stuff!

I proudly fly my Bills flag in the KC suburbs without caring which way the ass faces or the wind blows.

If I remember my history correctly, Edison temporarily fired up some lights in a few NYC homes with a generator. But Buffalo was the first city in the world to really go electric. With Westinghouse and Tesla doing their thing at the Falls, Buffalo got access to a plentiful & continuous supply of electricity. I think it's overstated but I've heard it said the Buffalo was the Silicon Valley of its time. Electricity was extremely exciting back in the day and folks gushed over the possibilities. So the engineers and dreamers came to Buffalo to play around with it.

Business build projects that are profit makers. Governments build projects (roads, schools... stadiums) that are not profit makers.

But Cookie's years were transformational - from founding franchise to AFL champions. I remember Larry Felser trying to convince people that Cookie deserved to be talked about in the same breath as Jim Brown and OJ. At his peak, he was nearly that good. His fiery competitiveness helped turn those early Bills into winners. And I think his advocacy helped advance the treatment of players of color. Fans used to excitedly chant "Lookie, Lookie, Here comes Cookie!" Nobody ever chanted, "Noble, noble, that's our Schobel!"

I'd put Cookie and Byrd before Schobel. OJ is the greatest Bill ever. And a scumbag. I'd rather not see his name anywhere.