hondo in seattle

Seems like a solid, intelligent guy whose head is in the right place. Somewhere else, I posted that skill-wise, he was more or less a jag. But I want to be wrong. I root for him and hope he becomes a regular contributor to the Bills offense.

We've seen Josh make some bad decisions. Although Josh throws picks at about the same rate that Brady did, Josh throws more boneheaded picks, and I think that affects how some people see him. And yet, Josh leads the entire NFL in EPA/play. 1. Josh +0.26 2. Mayfield +0.25 3. Daniel Jones +0.24 Josh's score is higher than most of Brady's season EPA ratings. It's an interesting Top Three list because teams had given up on #2 and #3. Even with the league's best score, I think Josh's EPA can go up even higher when & if Josh improves his decision-making process, Brady does a better job scheming a downfield passing game, and Beane gives the offense better weapons.

AI did this for me... 🏈 Josh Allen vs. Tom Brady — EPA/play Comparison EPA/play = Expected Points Added per play. It measures how much each play increases scoring chances, adjusted for down, distance, field position, and game situation. Higher = more efficient. ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── Season | Josh Allen EPA/play | Tom Brady EPA/play | Notes ────────────────|---------------------|---------------------|──────────────────────────────────────────── 2020 | ~+0.25 | — | Allen’s breakout; MVP runner-up 2021 | ~+0.20 | — | Allen’s rushing EPA surged; Brady led NFL in passing 2022 | ~+0.18 | — | Allen remained top 5 in EPA/play 2023 | ~+0.17 | — | Slight dip; still elite 2024 | ~+0.20 | — | Rebounded; dual-threat dominance 2025 | +0.26 | — | Leads NFL in EPA/play ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── Peak Brady | — | ~+0.30 | 2007: 50 TDs, 16-0 season Brady 2010–12 | — | ~+0.25 | Consistent top-tier efficiency Brady 2020–21 | — | ~+0.22 | Tampa years: high volume, strong EPA/play ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── 🔍Key Takeaways: • Allen’s EPA/play since 2020 has consistently ranked top 5, peaking in 2025. • Brady’s best seasons matched or slightly exceeded Allen’s, but without rushing value. • Allen’s dual-threat profile gives him a modern edge; Brady’s career longevity remains unmatched.

In my civilian work, I use a modified version of the Army's After-Action Review (AAR), leading a discussion around these four questions: * What did we do right? * What could we have done better? * What did we learn? * What will we do differently next time? I wonder if Beane and his team did a post-mortem on the Keon pick, figured out where they went wrong, and took steps to make sure they don't make a similar mistake going forward.

I get what you're saying but... Brady uses different receiver packages. Some are designed to support the run game, others to stretch the field horizontally, or threaten vertically. Either Coleman is good enough to be on one or more of the personnel groupings, or he's not. If Brady decides he has other players who are better suited for his packages (looking at their individual speed, size, talent, preparation, effort), then Coleman sits. The calculus of these decisions has shifted. Shavers is proving himself as an all-around good guy. Recently signed Hardman brings speed. Palmer's healthy again. Gabe's on the field again. So where does that leave Keon? I don't think it's a matter of managing Coleman's snap count. I think it's a matter of seeing where he fits - or doesn't.

We may not agree on all of the nuances of how it happened, but we do agree on this: Coleman hasn't worked out. I get frustrated when Josh scans the field and finds no one to throw to. Obviously, that happens to every QB, but it seems to happen to Josh more than most. And while the TEs and other WRs are also at fault, not to mention Brady, Coleman bears more than his fair share of the blame. At this point, I'd probably rather see any other Bills receiver on the field. I'm also frustrated with Beane. When you win the lottery with a unicorn QB, you then need to get him two things: a good OL and a good WR corps. We've had one or the other during Beane's tenure but never both at the same time. That's criminal neglect.

Enjoyable way to spend 11 minutes of my life: I counted 13 traditional sneaks and tush-pushes out of dozens of TDs. Way less than half.

I appreciate the response and compliment your talent for making things sound dumber than maybe they really are. For example, you mention the tactical error of "playing him [Keon] the most snaps all season as he continues to struggle..." I don't assume that Keon got the most snaps because the coaching staff considered him the best WR nor were they rewarding him for his effort. I think it was just a matter of how Brady packages his receivers. And, statistically speaking, you could say all our wideouts were struggling, so Keon's production struggles don't stand out. The big mistake was drafting Keon where we did. You could also argue that Beane hasn't managed the cap well which meant we didn't have the space to sign an expensive FA. But, from what I see and know, I don't think the coaching staff made any grave mistakes in how they've handled Keon. The kid does have some talent. They tried to nurse it along. But Keon screwed up enough times that they finally lost their patience. And I'm glad they did. I think it would be super interesting to be a fly on the wall of One Bills Drive and see/hear how these situations truly evolve because we fans don't get the whole story.

I believe we currently have 13 players out on IR and another 16 on the injury report (as of yesterday). Amazing.

I heard Cosell criticize our passing scheme which I agree with wholeheartedly. Cosell also mentioned that we don't have a great receiving corps, which I also agree with. I'm just saying that the Bucs game doesn't prove anything - not that Brady is a good schemer after all, nor that our receivers are actually good. (I do, however, believe that our WRs are better than Brady often makes them look).

This is an interesting narrative but I don't think it's quite accurate. The WR room wasn't "rudderless." It simply lacked a star receiver. "Getting serious about disciplining him after the fact was a tactical error." I'm not sure what you mean there. If you're using the word discipline to mean punishment, it's normal to punish someone after they screw up, not before. In any case, we don't know everything McD's done to correct Keon's issues. We don't what talks they've had. We do know that the discipline has increased from something mild to making Keon a healthy scratch. That's called progressive discipline and it's a normal behavior modification tool. When the little hammer doesn't work, pull out a bigger hammer. When did the Bills coronate Coleman as WR1? They drafted him. They played him. I never heard anyone say he was the top dog, the new star, Diggs' replacement. It seemed more like they considered him a role player - a big-bodied guy who could come down with contested balls. Clearly, Beane drafted Coleman too high but I don't think the coaching staff overstated his value or treated him like a 1. I think the coaching staff probably bought into the idea of building a capable passing attack using the diverse skill sets of our various WRs and TEs ("everybody eats") without a true WR1. And they're not entirely wrong. We're currently 2nd in ypg and 4th in ppg. Our offense is strong without an alpha receiver. In other words, McD is doing what you said he isn't doing - getting the most out of the people available to him. I don't think Beane failed to get a WR1 this offseason because he (or anyone) thought Keon was the answer. I think he screwed up managing the cap and didn't have the resources to get someone better than Josh Palmer or Elijah Moore.

I hope & pray you're right, but I don't see this as an easy victory. Nobody's hung 30 on the Texans yet this year, and most teams don't even reach 20. Considering how bad our defense is, we may need to score 30 to win.

True. Passer rating has nothing to do with passing attempts per game. For example, a QB who goes 5 of 10 for 50 yards will have the same passer rating as a QB who goes 10 of 20 for 100 yards, or 20 of 40 for 200 yards. It's all about efficiency - how effective you are with the passing attempts you do take. Opposing QBs are not very efficient against us. The Bills pass D is better than average in completion percentage allowed, average yards per attempt allowed, and opposing passer rating. None of these stats have anything to do with our weak run defense or how often opposing QBs throw against us.

Josh throwing for 300+ yards against a bad, injury-ridden secondary doesn't prove anything.

There was a reason Hardman was unemployed... Punt Return Fumble Comparison (Career Totals) Player | Punt Returns | Fumbles | Fumble Rate ---------------------|--------------|---------|------------- Mecole Hardman | 89 | 7 | 1 per 12.7 returns Marcus Jones | 45 | 2 | 1 per 22.5 returns Kalif Raymond | 109 | 3 | 1 per 36.3 returns Gunner Olszewski | 91 | 2 | 1 per 45.5 returns Skyy Moore | 35 | 2 | 1 per 17.5 returns Jamison Crowder | 95 | 1 | 1 per 95 returns Jakeem Grant | 119 | 4 | 1 per 29.8 returns The league average is something like 1 fumble per 37 returns.