hondo in seattle

Bledsoe played one good half-season with us. If Josh got hurt, Bledsoe would be the guy I'd want to come in - assuming he played at the same level as the first 8 or 9 games of 2002. But as a backup, I'd want Fitz. He's a great teammate. He'd be super supportive of Josh and the entire team. He's also smart. In the QB room, and on the sidelines, he'd have some great conversations with Josh that would help elevate Josh's game. And if Fitz had to come in, he'd execute the game plan and give us a chance to win.

Here's your answer from the lips of Dawson Knox... "The dude's been playing on a torn PCL in one leg and then his other knee - he doesn't even know what's wrong with it because he hasn't had it scanned yet, but it's got so much fluid in it. Like, it's insane what he has played through... the selfless nature it takes to be able to put your body on the line for your team even when you got a torn PCL in one knee and the other knee don't even know what's wrong with it, but it's messed up too..."

Setting aside the pros and cons of signing him, do we really need another Gabe Davis thread?

I'm not entirely sure who our starters will be, but we'll have excellent backups (#4, #5, and maybe #6). I still think Brady can get better at how he schemes a downfield passing attack. In any case, we scored a lot of points last year despite our shortcomings. We should again this year.

This is a hard exercise because we have to read Brady's mind and guess how he'll use these guys. And I know from how often I disappoint my wife, I'm a terrible mind reader. But here goes... 1. Shakir 2. Palmer 3. Moore 4. Kincaid 5. Coleman 6. Knox 7. Samuel As I am so often with my wife, I wouldn't be surprised if I'm wrong with this.

Am I suffering from some kind of bias when I remember Gabe this way (see below)? - Hard worker, good dude in the locker room, willing blocker. - Not on the same page as Josh, which suggests Gabe made bad decisions on choice routes. - Possesses neither great moves nor speed. When he got open deep, it was often because a DB made a mistake (sometimes because Josh was running around improvising, looking like he was about to get sacked). - Opposing DBs said Gabe was easy to cover because he ran a limited route tree. I guess there'd be no harm in bringing him back for the vet minimum. Competition is never a bad thing, but I wouldn't be any kind of excited.

I hope you're right. I remember when Jairus Byrd had 9 picks in his rookie year. Some Bills fans thought he was an emerging superstar with a remarkable nose for the ball. I thought he was lucky - often in the wrong place but coming up with a pick anyway because of a funky deflection. Byrd only averaged 2 picks per year for the rest of his career. Sometimes TOs are like that. Recent history... The Bills led the league in TO differential last year. The 2023 leader, the Ravens, finished in the top five again in 2024. The 49ers led the league in 2022 but only finished +0 the following year. I hope we follow Baltimore's example, not San Francisco's.

Yeah, Bill, we disagree because I do believe Beane has the final say but neither one of us is in a position to prove our case. At least, I'm not. It would be cool, though, if we could embed ourselves into OBD a week before the draft, sit in all the meetings, and hang out in the war room when the picks are made. Maybe when I win the lottery, I'll buy a big enough stake in the Bills that Terry allows us both inside the building.

I wonder why you see those signatures when I don't see them at all. I think Beane's telling the truth when he says he takes input from McD and his coaches, as well as his own scouts, and then makes the picks based on the totality of that information. Which sounds very sensible. The final decision - and accountability - lies with Beane.

Sadly, you're right. Last season we were +24 in turnover differential. But of the various stats that contribute to winning seasons, various football observers have concluded that TO margin is perhaps the most variable from year to year. To give an example, one analyst wrote: "We all know intuitively that winning the turnover margin has a significant impact on winning, but this puts it into context. A team’s turnover margin correlates with same-season winning at close to a 70% rate. However, while it is predictive of same-season winning, it is highly unpredictable year-to-year, with a correlation of just about 11% year-to-year, meaning from a statistical standpoint, a team’s turnover margin almost might as well be random year-to-year." In short, we can't count on getting wins by winning the TO battle again this year. footballfanspot.com/2021/08/12/which-stats-are-most-predictable-and-predictive/ harvardsportsanalysis.org/2014/10/how-random-are-turnovers/

Unless Josh gets hurt, I don't think we'll be worse than last season. Depending on the performance of the FAs and draft picks, and there are question marks around all of them, we might be better. I'm hoping Brady continues to improve as an OC, particularly in scheming a downfield passing attack. In other words, I have no special intuition or expectation for this season, but - as always - I hope for the miracle.

Beane's argument isn't that simple. He's also mentioned that we scored 30 points in 8 consecutive games and were the highest scoring team in the NFL last season if you include the playoffs. The offense was productive even without an elite receiver so maybe that wasn't our biggest need. And he's pointed out, reasonably enough, that you can have All Pros everywhere. The cap doesn't allow that. I believe that if you have a unicorn QB, you ought to prioritize two things: the OL and your stable of WRs. I don't think Beane's done that. It seems we either have a good OL, or a good group of WRs, but never both at the same time. Still, there are rational arguments you can make for his approach.

I still remember when Larry was the old, grizzled, trusted vet and Mark Gaughan was the youngster out to prove himself. The years fly by.

Then again, about 8.8% of 3rd round draft picks become All Pros (according to a historical review once done by Forbes). As a fan, I always hope. www.forbes.com/sites/prishe/2015/05/22/tracking-nfl-draft-efficiency-how-contingent-is-success-to-draft-position/

I know I'm a little late to the party on Moore but he isn't your normal JAG. He's got top 10% speed (3 cone drill, 20-yard shuttle, 40-yard dash) in a bottom 10% frame (height, weight, wingspan). He's probably not the kind of guy you want out there every play and it's unlikely that's what we got him for. If used correctly, he does seem like he could be a nice complementary piece. I'd rather have a big-bodied fast guy who can run the entire route tree but a FA like that would be out of our price range. Beggars can't be choosers.