ICanSleepWhenI'mDead

Carolina just ran 2 plays in a Hail Mary situation from their own 35 yard line at the end of the 49er game. On the first, offensive formation was 2 WR each side, with a RB in the backfield. Defense lined up 3 DL to pass rush, one defender on each side of the field 10 yards downfield from the line of scrimmage (couldn't see jersey numbers, but body type looked like LBs), with everybody else more than 12 yards deep and not in the picture. At the snap, the 3 DL rushed the passer, all 4 WR and the 2 LBs ran downfield out of the picture, and the RB circled out of the backfield to the short middle. QB threw an incomplete pass to the far sideline, and at time he made the throw, the only defenders within 20 yards of the line of scrimmage were the 3 DLs. On the second, offense lined up 3 WR to bottom of screen, 1 WR at the top, and a RB in the backfield. Defensive lined up 3DL and 1 LB at the line of scrimmage, all of whom rushed the passer. Four other defenders were in the picture, and seemed to have man coverage assignments against the 4 WR, but they were giving an 8-10 yard cushion at the snap. Play was a WR screen to the near sideline. The defender guarding Ginn (the WR who caught the WR screen pass) took two steps back, and didn't come forward until after the QB threw it. Crazy play probably has a shot against the first defensive formation. Unclear for the second play, because no way to know where the DB goes if a WR (in the crazy play - Carpenter) had circled into the backfield.

If even one defender follows Carpenter all over the field, the play obviously won't work. Can't say that I know how often the defensive scheme against an expected Hail Mary pass would involve (1) man-to-man coverage assignments against each of 5 WR (plus 3 DL pass rushers plus 3 safeties in zone covering 1/3 of end zone each), versus (2) 3 DL pass rushers plus 8 other defenders all in pretty deep zone coverage. I would hope that any DB on the field at the start of an expected Hail Mary pass would instinctively react to a suspicion of trickery (even if he didn't know exactly what kind of trick it would be), by dropping deep. I would hope that the other team's DB coach's primary instruction to his DBs would be - - "Don't let your man get behind you, 'cause that's the only way we lose the game." But just because I hope those things doesn't make 'em true. I'll be watching most of the rest of this year's playoff games. If we get any Hail Mary plays, I'll try to watch whether a DB appears to take each WR man-to-man near the line-of-scrimmage (if the camera crew cooperates). So how about this modification - - before the snap, have unequal numbers of true WRs swap sides of the formation. If the DBs flip flop with them, then QB knows there's some man-to-man coverage and audibles to a true Hail Mary. If the DBs don't swap sides with the WRs (and therefore don't care that you just increased the number of WRs on one side of the field, while decreasing the number of WRs on the other), then run the crazy play.

1. Any guy with a jersey number that allows him to play any of the 5 OL positions without having to report to the referee, who also has good enough hands to catch a pass while standing still, would seem to make sense. Seems to me like the ability to catch a pass would eliminate more OL guys from consideration than the ability to properly place it on the ground after catching it. If the play is deceptive enough, an extra half second in placing it down won't make much difference - - but if the guy drops the backward pass, it will add so much time to the kick that it would almost certainly kill the play. If he drops the pass and it rolls more than about 1 yard downfield from the original line of scrimmage, he can't even legally go get it on a kicking play! 2. It's my understanding that Carpenter could line up anywhere but one of the 5 interior OL positions without having to report to the referee. 3. The "double trick" is a pretty imaginative wrinkle - - if we ever got coordinator jobs in the NFL we'd probably both get fired after our first game!

The one yard beyond the line of scrimmage is the exact same rule for pass blocking, so it's not much different from what the OL usually does on a Hail Mary. So it maintains deception and doesn't require much additional training for 4 of the 5 OL guys. We would have to rely on deception to get the DL far enough toward the sideline, because if the DL or a MLB doesn't get pulled either deep or to the side our OL couldn't fire downfield to block them. Thanks for the diagram. If a MLB is patrolling the shallow middle and doesn't go either deep or to the sideline, the crazy play would not work. But if you give the defense a 5 WR look rather than 4 WR and a halfback, would the D still have a MLB guarding the shallow middle? Seems like maybe not.

1. I'm proposing that the ball gets spotted 1/2 yard behind the original line of scrimmage . . rather than 7 yards behind the original line of scrimmage like on a normal field goal try. That's why the end result of the play is shortening the field goal try by 6.5 yards. 2. Relying on an OL to catch and spot the ball might be the weakest part of the crazy play, but my intuition says that the right guy could do it. In the past, we had Jason Peters who was a TE in college, and we also had DE Ryan Denney (sp?) as a receiver on a successful fake punt play, so some lineman-sized guys should have good enough hands. Maybe Lee Smith playing OT? If we somehow added a normal holder to the play, the likelihood of the deception working goes down too much. 3. As for spotting the ball, how hard can that be? On a normal field goal try, the timing is very important because so many guys are rushing, and even a short delay in spotting the ball can get the kick blocked. With the crazy play, either the deception works or it doesn't. If the defense is deceived and thinks they're facing a hail mary pass play, it's at least possible that the defensive players will wind up so far from the "holder" that if the holder can just catch the ball cleanly, he has plenty of time to set it down. With good enough deception, I could even see Carpenter being able to take extra steps if that lets him kick with more power.

Scenario assumes no time for the quick out. Hail Mary is clearly the conventional wisdom and what the defense expects - - but that expectation just might help this crazy play work.

Good wow or bad wow?

Different end of game scenario - - Bills are behind by 1-3 points, there is only time for one last play, and line of scrimmage would make a field goal attempt longer than what Carpenter can make, but only by 5 or 6 yards. I'm not an expert on NFL rules, but I've read the ones for a "Scrimmage Kick" (i.e., a punt or field goal try) at the official NFL rules site [ http://static.nfl.co...immage_Kick.pdf ] - - I don't yet see anything that would prohibit this play: Personnel package - - something that looks like a "Hail Mary" pass formation with one exception - - we use a 3 WR bunch formation on the sideline closest to our bench, but we substitute our field goal kicker, Carpenter, in for the WR closest to our bench. We have 2 WR split out to the other side, and QB in shotgun. Except for Carpenter (who's a reasonably big, athletic guy with a body type that doesn't scream "kicker"), it looks just like a standard "Hail Mary" formation. Carpenter wears a number that falls in the "eligible receiver" category, so he doesn't even need to report as "eligible" to the referee. The crazy play is pretty simple: At the snap, all the true WRs sprint deep just like in a normal "Hail Mary" - - they flood a corner of the end zone farthest from our bench. Our QB rolls out towards the other team's bench (same side of the field where the WRs are heading for the end zone), looking downfield as usual. And doing his best to drag the 3 pass rushing DL with him. He decides to "run for it" down the far side line, and should have a little open space in front of him at first, because there's probably 8 guys playing deep pass coverage, who won't start to come up till he turns the corner. At the snap, all five OL guys let the DL run toward the far side line chasing the QB. Four of the five OL guys also roll toward the far side line, but by "scrimmage kick" rule they can't go more than 1 yard downfield from the line of scrimmage. I suspect our OL coach can create a blocking scheme where 4 OL block the far side DL just enough for the QB to turn the corner, and then let that DL chase. QB should be able to outrun the other 2 DL to the corner on his own. Our 4 OL guys let them chase, too. The remaining OL guy (with the best hands of the 5), moves to the hash closest to our bench, about 1/2 yard behind the line of scrimmage. When the QB gets about out 10 yards down field, he stops, turns and throws a backwards pass to the "good hands" OL guy who kneels and spots the ball for a field goal. If I have to tell you where Carpenter goes at the snap, you don't watch much football. We just shortened the field goal try by 6.5 yards, to put it within Carpenter's range. You can't take the ball downfield and then bring it back behind the line of scrimmage to throw a forward pass - - that's specifically prohibited by the rules. But I don't see anything similar for a field goal try. There's no restriction on where the ball goes before the kick. The rules just say that you have to attempt it from behind the line of scrimmage. There are some rules about which guys can go downfield before a "scrimmage kick." I think they might be a little different from the rules for a forward pass. But since no forward pass happens on this play, we just make sure we satisfy the scrimmage kick rules (and alert the referee in advance that what looks like a "Hail Mary" formation is really gonna be a field goal try, so we don't get flagged for violating foward pass formation rules). Anybody know of any rule that would make this play illegal?

I kinda liked "Montana" and "Also Montana."

It appears that you've gone through a worm hole and now find yourself in an alternate universe. Good luck getting home. Maybe the Bills can at least make the playoffs there.

Personally, my second favorite team is whoever happens to be playing NE that week.

Yeah, I admit I'm pretty wordy. Edit: Turns out my other wrinkle vaguely mentioned upthread won't work because of an NFL rule - - so less to read !

OK, but you're gonna miss the part where Manuel yells "Jauronimo."

OK, I've had some time to think about it. Here's how I see it if I'm Hackett/Crossman: A. I'm in a fairly unique position from a play calling perspective. Normally, I avoid anything that increases the chance of a turnover or a big yardage loss, because the after-effects of those things hurt my team. Here, I don't need to worry about after-effects, because it makes no difference if the play ends with a big yardage loss, a turnover or even a safety. End result is the same as a 69 yard gain - - game ends and my team loses. B. This is actually pretty liberating. I can do absolutely bat s***t crazy stuff with no real downside, 'cause nobody expects me to pull this one out of the fire. Anything that improves my odds of scoring a 1 play TD is a better call than the usual immediate short pass and crazy laterals, even if the odds of a big yardage loss, turnover or even a safety go up by even more. C. Given the defensive personnel and how I expect they've been instructed to play, I like a variation of No Saint's idea upthread. Here's my personnel package. The Bills must already have some form of kick-off return package with 2 deep return men. I use that, but modify it as follows - - if not already in those positions, I insert Spiller and McKelvin as the "2 deep" guys. Then I replace my biggest, slowest, worst-handed blocker with EJ Manuel. This says nothing about where I line 'em up - - just which 11 I'm gonna use. D. OK, now it's game day, and I'm on my own 30, down by 4-8 points, with time for 1 more play. Here's the plan: 1. I call time-out, mainly so I can talk to the referee. I want to give him a heads-up on what's about to happen, 'cause some of it's unusual. Let's assume the tunnel to the Bills' locker room is behind my offense. While I'm talking' to the ref, I have McKelvin fake a limp, take his helmet off, and slowly start walking with trainer assistance down my sideline toward the tunnel. Spiller, McKelvin and Manuel won't be on the interior line when the ball is snapped, and have appropriate jersey numbers, so none of them have to "report" to the referee before the play starts. The rules let me line up my other 8 guys any way I want - - they just may have to report to the referee as eligible or ineligible depending on their jersey number. I let the referee know in advance which guys are gonna report and how, and also tell him to watch for any lateral deep in my own end that absolutely will not be a forward pass - - I don't want them screwin' up that call. 2. As late as possible during the time-out, I have whichever guys need to report do so, and I have 9 (not 10) of them take the field. I intentionally hold one guy back, and McKelvin is still on the sideline, limping with help near my end zone and presumably then the tunnel. 3. Manuel lines up in the shotgun, with Spiller in the backfield but towards the far sideline. Of the remaining 7 guys already on the field, the 3 with the worst hands line up in WR spots. They're gonna be downfield decoys. The other 4 guys on the field take interior line spots. McKelvin is obviously hurt, 'cause he stops walking when he gets near the end zone sideline. 4. Now the fun starts. The intentionally held back guy is standing near me. I grab him by the collar, start screaming in his face, and forcefully yank him onto the field. As he runs to take the 5th interior line spot, I throw my headset, clipboard, whatever to the ground - - things are obviously FUBAR in Bills' land. But as I'm doing this to draw attention to me, McKelvin slips on his helmet, and crawls (yes, crawls) to just inside the numbers at the 1 yard line and lays down (yes, lays down). Most of the defenders are a very long way away. I think the near sideline WR guy at the line of scrimmage might have to be lined up closer to the near sideline than McKelvin for the formation to be legal, but if so, that's easy. 5. I don't need a true center on the field - - I think I'm allowed to have the middle interior line guy hike it sideways back to Manuel like they do on those weird swinging gate 2 point conversion tries. On the snap here's what happens next. 6. My guys playing the interior line positions chip the 3 DL pass rushers. They're special teams guys not regular O linemen, so I can't expect more than a chip anyway. All they're doing is buying Manuel a slight head start. The 3 eligible receiver guys with bad hands sprint to the far right end zone. All but the 3 DL pass rushers either retreat with them or are already back there, 'cause that's what they're trained to do. They've been drilled that nobody gets behind them on this play, at least while Manuel has the ball in his hands. 7. NOW IT GETS WEIRD. Manuel runs straight back to about his own 5 yard line, Spiller runs back to his own goal line on the far side, and McKelvin simply stands up. These 3 guys have one job - - to lure the 3 pass rushing DL as deep into Bills territory as possible. Given that the 3 DL have been instructed to rush Manuel, that shouldn't be hard. I've been showing Manuel videos of killdeer birds with seemingly broken wings all week, and he knows that on this play he's not really a passer - - he's a killdeer. If he has to run toward one sideline or the other to avoid an unexpectedly quick rush, he has either Spiller or McKelvin as an outlet for a lateral behind him. After making their chip blocks, the 5 interior line guys move to the near sideline, just behind the line of scrimmage, and wait. Yeah, they just wait. 8. We've been in hurry-up mode, but now time is on our side. We can play keep-away all day if we have to. A 3 man pass rush can still get to the QB if he's looking downfield for a receiver, but Manuel isn't looking downfield. He's a killdeer. At some point he's forced to pitch it to Spiller. 9. Spiller's tendency to bounce away from defenders and give ground is usually a liability. Here it's an asset. There's no pursuit to swarm and tackle him for a big loss, 'cause 8 of the defenders are about 80 yards away near the opposite end zone. They ain't comin' up, at least not very far, 'cause nobody's thrown a forward pass yet, Manuel is still back there, and they're nervous about letting guys behind them. Spiller has the back 40 yards of Bills territory (including the end zone) from sideline to sideline to run around in, and only 3 relatively slow DL guys chasing him. He's also got McKelvin, and less preferentially Manuel, to receive a lateral if he gets hemmed in. 10. As our 3 guys play keep away, the 2 who don't have the ball at any given time are instructed to watch how deep those 3 DLs get. When all 3 are inside the five yard line and the ball is in Spiller's or McKelvin's hands, Manuel yells "Fire" or "Go" or "Jauronimo" and all 3 of our guys run toward the 5 waiting interior OL guys at the line of scrimmage by the near sideline. I want the 3 DLs stranded really deep, 'cause I don't want any of 'em goin' all Phil Hansen on our a$$ and running the play down from behind. 11. Now it's basically the 2 deep kick-off return team (minus the biggest, slowest blocker with the worst hands) against 8 pass coverage guys. We try to block for Spiller or McKelvin, but if it ain't happening it devolves into the crazy lateral play with 5 interior OL guys that (i) have better hands and ball skills than 5 true OLinemen and (ii) are probably better at blocking agile DBs way down field than the true OL guys anyway. And Manuel stays behind the line of scrimmage as the long "disaster" pitch-back option. OK, this is pretty theatrical, but if you think the deception stuff is silly, just use Spiller and McKelvin in a split backfield from the get-go and do the rest the same. I personally would try to hide McKelvin just to make it look a little more like a weird pass play at the start than a kick return - - might not be worth the effort. The kick return team guys are a lot more useful if you wind up having to do crazy laterals than the 5 true OLinemen - - the play almost always ends when the ball is directed to them. You could make minor variations to personnel to improve the odds that the 8 pass defenders continue to play very deep pass coverage while you lure the 3 DL pass rushers deep into your own territory. It's now Monday after the game - - fire away!

Whoa there big fella - - I haven't told you either the personnel package or the play yet - - I've only just finished watching game film so that I know what I'm scheming against. Somehow, "Jauronimo" seems apt I'll give you a personnel package and an outrageous play call to criticize - - I promise. You and Jerry Sullivan will get plenty of opportunity to criticize my idiotic play call in Monday morning's paper - - but even Hackett gets to run it first.

So I'm looking at 3 D linemen with instructions to get after the passer, and 8 guys hanging back very deep in pass coverage with instructions to let the other team do whatever crazy s**t they want - - just don't be overaggressive and keep the ball out of the end zone? In real life, I can watch film of your team and see what personnel usually take the field and what they do in this situation. And because the crazy lateral play almost never works, I'm likely to get the type of D you've used in the past, with no surprises. Not guaranteed, of course, but likely.

Fair points, but it's not exactly like kick coverage because while you've got a lot of guys back deep near the end zone, presumably you've also got one or more pass rushers who are doing something different than anybody on the kick-off coverage team does. Tell me how many pass rushers you usually see on defense for this type of play, and I'll take a shot at creating a personnel package/play to increase the odds of beating it (as compared to the standard 5 big OL package we usually see). Assume offense has the ball at its own 30 yard line. Deal?

Maybe it's because of how strongly coaches drill ball security into their players' heads. Turnovers are the best predictors of W/L outcome, so in just about every other situation, you don't want guys taking chances by tossing it around. But in this specific situation, a turnover is obviously no worse than simply being tackled. Sometimes there's just nobody behind them to receive the pitch. BTW, I titled this thread "Question #1" because I've got another wrinkle, but it depends on a rule i'm not sure about.

I think the Hail Mary pass is always going to be a better option if you are close enough for the QB to get the ball into the end zone (or to say the 5 yard line for 1 tip to a deeper WR). So I'd only use the "smurf package" if the last play started from inside my own 35 or so, depending on my QB's arm strength. Seems like your kick-off coverage analogy is a good one, at least for the start of the play. I certainly agree that the defense will typically drop most defenders deep in coverage, so i guess one question for me is - - how do the defenders currently react, when they expect that a short pass will result in the "crazy lateral" scramble, and the offense has 5 offensive linemen involved in the scramble? i can't say that I've ever focused on the shape of the defense moving forward after the short pass starts the play - - not sure if that's because of my own focus or because the TV camera man typically zooms in on the ball carrier for closeups of the crazy laterals. It would be interesting to watch "all 22" video to see if the defense really does stay in lanes moving forward. So for the sake of argument, let's assume the defense actually has what amounts to lane assignments, and think about how to attack it. First thing I'd do is try to scramble up the defenders at the start of the play to get them out of their lanes. I'd have Easley, 3 other WR and McKelvin report as ineligible and put them on the interior OL. I'd put the extra smurfs (some combo of my RBs, backup QB, and my most dangerous WR) in eligible receiver positions. Maybe I get lucky and some defender who usually focuses on guys wearing jerseys with a number in the 80's gets confused and continues to focus on an interior line WR, even though that WR can't legally catch a forward pass. Then I'd flood all of the smurf eligible receivers, including my most dangerous real WR, deep to one side of the field. Odds are they are gonna drag most of the defenders with them to that side. To maximize confusion, I also send the 3 interior line WR downfield to the same side of the field as the eligible smurfs. I ain't throwin' a forward pass on this play, but the defenders don't know that, and if they get confused about who's potentially eligible to catch a pass and who's not maybe i can pull a couple more of the defenders to that side of the field. At this point, with luck, all hell has broken out, the other team's special teams coach is screaming like a madman (it would help if the other team has no timeouts left at the start of the play), and I've done my best to scramble up the defenders' lane assignments. Starting QB rolls out to the opposite side of the field from where just about everybody else went, and looks downfield like he wants to pass, even though he can't throw it forward because 3 of his interior line guys are downfield. Easley and McKelvin circle back where they can catch a lateral. QB laterals to preferably McKelvin and mayhem ensues against scrambled lane assignments. If you prefer blocking to causing confusion, substitute the TEs and a FB for the 3 WRs on the interior line, and keep them back to block for McKelvin/Easley when the QB makes the first lateral (and to give the QB time to let the play develop a bit before he pitches it). I guess my overall point is that if your field position is too poor to chuck it to within 5 yards of the end zone, your standard offensive personnel package with 5 big slow OL guys with bad hands isn't the best choice. There are lots of ways you could customize your personnel package for a final play that would be an improvement. At a bare minimum, have McKelvin report as ineligible and put him on the interior line. Seems like a no brainer to get your best open field runner on the field for a scramble play. How many times does the crazy lateral scramble end when somebody laterals the ball to a big, slow OL guy who either drops it or lumbers forward and gets tackled because he doesn't know what to do with it and can't avoid anybody?

Just food for thought - - Let's say you're a gazillionaire planning to bid on some NFL franchise when it comes up for auction. Which situation would make you bid higher: 1. Team spends close to the maximum allowable salary cap figure every year, giving it the best possible mix of players (in the current GM's opinion) and probably a better recent W/L record; or 2. Team spends as close to the salary cap floor as PR considerations allow (and maybe even significantly underspends the cap in the first 2 years just before the auction), simultaneously giving the prospective new owner (i) the obligation to spend more heavily than most other owners in the last 2 years of the 4 year period to meet the 89% floor requirement, and (ii) the ability to let his new GM reshape the roster more quickly to that new owner's and/or new GM's satisfaction by using the wad of cash the team saved in the 2 years before the auction . I can see how various gazillionaires might differ about which approach they would prefer before the auction. We as fans would prefer option #1. Maybe egotistical types like Jerry Jones and Dan Snyder would prefer option #2. Actual policy determined by what Littman thinks future bidders prefer.

This link is almost 3 months old, so I'm not sure it's absolutely current, but "supplemental revenue sharing" is relevant to this discussion: http://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/Journal/Issues/2013/10/14/Leagues-and-Governing-Bodies/NFL-revenue.aspx

http://www.oanda.com/currency/historical-rates/

One good thing about the winter weather, if your neighbor has a Canadian gardener he won't be mowing her lawn when you and your sausage show up, so you won't have to share your sausage with him.

My impression has always been that Ralph keeps his net worth pretty private. I have no doubt that he's rich, but how did you come up with "4.5 billion?" The Bills aren't worth that much, and as far as I know, his other investments are privately held without any required public disclosures.

More fundamentally, it's designed to give you a numbers advantage by stranding some defenders "behind" the play. If you have a normal personnel package on the field, you capitalize on the numbers advantage with big guys as blockers, because a "normal" personnel package limits your ability to capitalize on it any other way. Blocking is all the big, strong but slow guys with bad hands are good for. The "smurf linemen" package would let you capitalize on it in a different way. It would also throw in an element of surprise that might confuse the defense, which is exactly what you want on a crazy lateral end of game play. But as I mentioned above, I think it's highly unlikely that the defense rushes 6 at the QB on the play. That's the exact opposite of what they are usually trained to do in the crazy lateral play situation.