ICanSleepWhenI'mDead

If it's true that the talent in this years draft runs much deeper than the talent expected to be available in next year's draft, then you can make a rational argument that, at least for this particular year, "a 1st next year is worth a 2nd this year." But that's not what you're saying. By saying it's a "general rule," you're claiming that you should always discount next year's picks by 1 round. The OP also claims that picks in a draft 1 year later should be discounted - - by 50% of their point value on the trade chart. I realize that both of you may have read these claims somewhere, but what's the logic behind that thinking? Why is a pick a year in the future ALWAYS worth so much less than a pick now? I'm curious about the rationale, because that makes no sense to me. I can see how future picks are always worth less to the GM, because he might get fired before next year's draft comes around. But if you aren't a Bills employee, how does that make any sense? Do Olympic athletes win gold medals with successively slower times every four years? Is the general population of college age kids becoming gradually less athletically capable over time? Please give me some rational explanation for why a future pick in any given round should ALWAYS be evaluated at a discount compared to this year's pick in the same round. I don't think that makes any sense.

Back at ya!

It's not difficult to understand at all - - maybe it's just semantics. I would agree that "we are out a 2015 1st and 4th" IN ADDITION TO the pick that we actually used this year to draft Watkins. That makes the total investment in Watkins = 2 firsts and a fourth. If there had been no trade, and Watkins somehow fell to us because nobody else picked him, our investment in Watkins would be one first. Do you disagree with that?

So you think we still have this year's first?

No, I would say we used a first to get Watkins. We gave up a first next year and fourth next year to get the right to use this year's first on Watkins. That means we now have Watkins, but we no longer have this year's first, next year's first and next year's fourth. Total investment in Watkins = 2 firsts and 1 fourth. Seriously, you can't see that?

We gave up two picks in the trade, and used another one to actually choose Watkins. So the total investment to get Watkins was 2 firsts and a fourth.

Now just stop and actually think for a minute. At the start of today's draft, we had a 1st round pick this year, a first round pick next year and a fourth round pick next year. At midnight tonight, we had Watkins, but no longer had any of those three picks. How do you conclude that the Bills invested something other than 2 first round picks and a fourth round pick in Watkins?

So the wife's a Bills fan, huh?

Who do I want? Jessica Alba, but I'd settle for Scarlett Johansson.

North Korea showing off its breakthrough semi-invisible tank brigade?

Maybe it was a schnauzer from New Zealand named "Monty:" http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-20614593 http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2245771/New-Zealand-dogs-pass-driving-test-really-CAN-drive-car.html

"We need to take a QB in the first round every year until we find one that takes us to the playoffs, because it's a QB-driven league."

Hold on a sec - - there IS a 3D model. Some guy made it with Legos: http://www.buffalobills.com/news/article-1/Fan-shows-ultimate-devotion-one-LEGO-at-a-time/7863e26e-c47e-43d4-8821-80c185a38686

Haven't read the whole thread, so apologies if this video (about synthetic marijuana use on the Auburn 2010 national championship football team) was previously posted: http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=9204786 Edit: At 5:37 of the video, it mentions that Univ. of Alabama started testing for spice in the spring of 2010. The Bills took Dareus in the 2011 draft.

If new stadium lease terms were similar to the current lease terms, I suppose getting out of Erie County's obligation to pay millions of dollars every year for (1) annual capital payments, (2) working capital payments, (3) game day expenses, and (4) operating expenses ought to be worth something: http://www2.erie.gov/exec/index.php?q=buffalo-bills-lease-terms-summary If it hasn't already been paid, maybe Erie County could even negotiate to get out of paying the "Carryover Obligations" that survived the termination of the "old" 15 year lease signed back in 1998: http://www2.erie.gov/exec/sites/www2.erie.gov.exec/files/uploads/Stadium%20Lease%20Termination%20Agreement.pdf

Interesting interview, but the most interesting part is that it was conducted by a guy with a PhD in chemical engineering (from Stanford, no less) who runs a sports analytics website. I'd like to ask him some questions.

Mr.Stay Puft:

Telling someone there are "holes in their cultural literacy" is more like saying they have blind spots rather than accusing them of being totally culturally illiterate. That said, being unaware of a specific episode - - not a blind spot. Being unaware of a regular role in a popular series that ran for 8 years - - yes, I consider that a blind spot. I admit I found the show very funny, though, so I'm probably biased. The Darryl brothers first appeared in the scene upthread from episode #2, and they became regular cast members starting in season #3: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newhart They also had a memorable scene in the Newhart series finale - - you can read about it in the above link in the unlikely event that you're interested.

I see from your profile that you're located in the Netherlands, so it's understandable if there are some holes in your American cultural literacy - - lots of posters here don't have that excuse. Maybe this will help explain things:

My older brother Darryl is a bit of a moron, but just like my younger brother Darryl and me, he's a Bills fan. So like many of us here, he would like to know exactly what Ralph's trust says about how the team should be sold. Problem is, wealthy people like Ralph use trusts in part to keep their financial affairs confidential. It's been reported in another thread (oddly titled "Koshinski"), that there are four trustees of Ralph's trust - - (1) Jeffrey Littman, (2) Mary Wilson, (3) Mary Owens, and (4) Eugene Driker. http://www.allsportswny.com/prospective-buffalo-bills-owner-needs-3-trustee-votes-for-winning-bid/ I don't know if that's true, but it seems plausible. When I told Darryl about the Koshinski thread, he blindly accepted the identity of the trustees as gospel - - did I mention he's a moron? Anyway, Darryl (the older one) got to wonderin' if maybe there was a way to get a copy of Ralph's trust. Don't seem to me like a fair fight, what with billionaire Ralph and his legal henchmen tryin' to keep it secret, and a moron tryin' to get a copy. But Darryl (the older one) has friends in low places, and he don't mind doin' a little diggin' on the Interweb tubes. So he goes off and digs for a while, and then he comes back and says he wants me to post his "manifesto" about how to get a copy of Ralph's trust - - I guess he thought the other thread was entitled "Kaczynski" (as in Ted, aka the Unabomber). Color me skeptical, but I promised Mama I'd humor him as long as it didn't hurt nobody, so FWIW, here it is: 1. Eugene Driker is Michigan lawyer admitted to the bar in both Michigan and New York, Jeffrey Littman got a law degree from the University of Detroit Law School, and both Ralph and Mary Wilson maintained a permanent residence in Grosse Pointe Shores, Michigan. The Bills also maintained their principal executive office in Michigan: http://www.bsdd.com/Bio/EugeneDriker.asp http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/philanthropist-ralph-wilson-honors-buffalo-bills-cfo-jeffrey-c-littmann-with-endowed-scholarship-at-walsh-college-228615781.html http://www.ralphwilsonfoundation.org/index.php/about-us http://appext20.dos.ny.gov/corp_public/CORPSEARCH.ENTITY_INFORMATION?p_nameid=416418&p_corpid=355631&p_entity_name=%42%75%66%66%61%6C%6F%20%42%69%6C%6C%73&p_name_type=%41&p_search_type=%42%45%47%49%4E%53&p_srch_results_page=0 2. This makes it likely (but not certain) that Ralph's trust was established under Michigan law. 3. Michigan adopted its version of the Uniform Trust Code effective April 1, 2010. Among other things, it requires trustees to provide beneficiaries with a copy of the trust instrument upon request, and to keep them informed about the trust administration, even if the trust document specifies otherwise: http://www.michbar.org/probate/pdfs/mtcstatusreport_0906.pdf http://www.legislature.mi.gov/(S(twlobseypupcww45j5q12j55))/mileg.aspx?page=GetMCLDocument&objectname=mcl-700-7105 http://www.legislature.mi.gov/(S(dhydhan2biokgy55xzxuixay))/mileg.aspx?page=GetMCLDocument&objectname=mcl-700-7814 4. So let's say you're an AP reporter, or a Buffalo News reporter, or a Toronto reporter, or even a blogger trying to find out exactly what the trust says about how the Bills should be sold. If you can find a cooperative beneficiary and get them to request a copy of the trust instrument from Littman, Mary Wilson, Mary Owens or Eugene Driker, that trustee is legally required to give the beneficiary a copy. 5. Tough part is finding a cooperative beneficiary. Charities that Ralph donated to during his lifetime might be beneficiaries of the trust, but (1) they may not want to jeopardize future contributions from the Wilson family by cooperating, and (2) Ralph could have set up the trust to funnel post-death gifts to charity through the Ralph Wilson Foundation first as the direct beneficiary of the trust. The Foundation ain't gonna be cooperatin'. 6. Darryl vaguely recalls reading that Ralph had 2 daughters from a former marriage, one of whom unfortunately passed away. But if Darryl's recollection about there being a remaining daughter is correct, maybe Ralph would make that daughter a direct beneficiary of the trust, especially if there was any historical friction between that daughter and his new wife. Seems like the daughter would already be interested in getting a copy of the trust, as her step-mom and step-mom's niece (not blood relatives) are two of the four trustees currently managing the trust that may be intended to benefit that daughter (among others). I wonder if Ted Kaczynski's brother had to put up with this much crap . . .

Well, if he even tried to impregnate any mofos, that would potentially make him a fafo, and who wants to even hypothetically be on like that?

I think she's draft eligible, she can hit on the run, and we need a tight end.

Agreed - - but there's a max of 20 possible answers per question. I'll mark you down as "some other Williams."

We've still got a few days 'til the draft. Everybody has a favorite Williams - - who's yours?

All your team are belong to us!