Astrobot

An ideal scenario would be Hightower LB, Gilmore CB, Bequette DE, Nate Potter OT, Trevor Guyton DE, Terrell Manning LB. After that, I'm flexible! 5th Round (139th Lynch Trade) --- WR Marvin McNutt or Tommy Streeter, TE Chase Ford 6th Round (167th Overall) ------- QB GJ Kinne, DE Jack Crawford, , DT Josh Chapman 7th Round (200th Overall) ------- DE Marinovich, Adrian Hamilton, DT Travian Robertson UDFA--- Damarlo Belcher WR

This is a sure sign that Buddy will draft Kendall Wright with the #10 pick! Kidding.

Totally True, BB. The Watt comparison is very spot on. Crick is my pick if we haven't addressed pass rush DE in FA, and the other Gamecock, Stephon Gilmore, is my pick if they have. Just wrote this for DraftTek's next mock: Gilmore:

I like Martin over Bell, Curry over everyone we have, and Streeter's one of the better big WR's in this draft. However, there's a big WR in almost every round (RD3=Dwight Jones, RD5=Brian Quick, RD6=Damarlo Belcher, RD7=Lavoisier Tuinei) so there has to be a valid reason to take WR over CB at RD3.

I fully agree. I actually like Floyd a little better than Blackmon for what the Bills would do with him in our offense and the role that he would play. Kalil will be gone, Reiff is likely gone anyway, Claiborne is gone by #10, and Nix is saying he doesn't like the pass rushers at #10. So do you want a significantly upgraded stable of WR's (I think they'll draft 2 WR's if they don't take a 2nd tier WR via FA), or a CB with the first pick?

I'm currently trying to read Buddy Nix's mind. He says that 75% of what you hear this time of year is lies, but I'll take him at his word that he doesn't like the lazy Coples, the short-armed Ingram, the uninspiring pick Upshaw, and the one-year wonder Mercilus as his value pass rusher, and that he'll get one later in the draft. But whom will he pick? At RD2#42: Vinny Curry[/b] from Marshall is the logical pick here. It's a little early at #42 to take Cam Johnson, who I think will fall to mid- or late-round. At RD3#74: Jake Bequette. It's between Chandler Jones (Syracuse from Endicott) and Jake Bequette (Arkansas). Jones is the better pick as a tackler; he has averaged 4-5 tackles a game for three years. But Bequette is the sack artist, with 10 sacks this year. Bequette is also more disruptive. He had 5 forced fumbles, 5 hurries, and 9.5 tackles for loss this year. Bequette's played the position 48 games to 32 games for Jones. Also from Syracuse Mikhail Marinovich Syracuse 6'4'' 245 4.67 – has started all 36 games in a row, brother Todd and his father played for Raiders You have a bunch of experienced DE's still left on the board. I think Malik Jackson could be gone by our #105. Between the others, I like Trevor Guyton. He's been productive and consistent over his career. His school, California, is also ranked highest in defense of the teams listed. McClellin's Boise defense, while decent, was ranked lowest of the lot, but McClellin's sacks accounted for the largest percentage of the team total of any of these DE's. He's light for a DE, and most will have him moving back to OLB. At RD4#105: Malik Jackson. Tennessee.(6'5" 268 46 games at DE, 7 sacks last 2 years) http://www.cfbstats.com/2010/player/694/1018257/index.html At RD4#124: Trevor Guyton. Calif. (6'3" 285 41 games at DE, 10.5 sacks last 2 years) http://www.cfbstats.com/2008/player/107/1015792/index.html At RD5#137: Shea McClellin. BoiseSt.(6-3 255 49 games at DE, 15.5 sacks last 2 years). http://www.cfbstats.com/2010/player/66/1015593/index.html At RD5#139: Jack Crawford Penn St. (6-4 273 48 games at DE, 8.5 sacks last 2 years). http://www.cfbstats.com/2010/player/539/1017984/index.html 4.69 - slowed by foot injury 2010, out 3 gm, surgery in Jan so out of spring drills. England NFP#11 At RD6, #169: Cordarro Law Southern Miss RD6 (6-2 254 DE43/OLB34, 47 games, 15 sacks last 2 years) http://www.cfbstats.com/2011/player/664/1018316/index.html Cordarro Law S.Missippi 6'2'' 254 4.68 - 10 forced fumbles in his career, which is a school record At RD7, #199: Scott Solomon Rice (6-3, 270) RD 7. NFP#21 A better overall prospect in my mind than former Rice DL Cheta Ozougwu, who ended up being selected in the 7th round last year. He's a big kid who has some pass rush ability and the size to play the run. At worst looks like a guy who can come into camp and work his way into an NFL rotation. http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/college_player_scouting_report.html&player=35087 UDFA: Vince Browne DE Northwestern – 6’5″ – 265 lbs – 4th All-Time Sack Leader at Northwestern, lost reps because NU’s defense was bad and he was a victim of bad circumstances, but still had better stats than any D lineman who played. You can’t forget what he did his first 3 years he played every down.

We have him going at #56, which would be end of RD2 Receivers and current pick http://www.drafttek.com/2012-NFL-Draft-Prospect-Rankings/Top-WRs.asp

I think Pears is in their plans, as is Hairston and maybe even Jasper. Bell-------Levitre---------Wood----------DeCastro----------Pears Hairston---Urbik----------Colin Brown----Jasper------------Rinehardt The other scenario is, what if Levitre at LT was next to DeCastro at LG? Could we run better?

Switching the DraftTek Team Needs a bit on this one to see what happens as a result. OT=P2 WR=P2 CB=P2 OLB43=P2 (these four positions are equal in priority; take the BPA of those guys) DE=P3 M4 (take more than one DE; don't reach in RD1) QB=P4 ILB=P6 FS=P6 SS=P6 All 3-4 players and RB=P9

It works for both teams. Cincy gets #1 RB and a great CB. Bills still get Ingram plus two players in RD 2. 1 10 Cincinnati Trent Richardson RBF Alabama P2 1 17 Buffalo Melvin Ingram OLB34 South Carolina P1 1 21 Cincinnati Janoris Jenkins CB North Alabama P1 2 42 Buffalo Alshon Jeffery WRF South Carolina P3 2 53 Buffalo Bobby Wagner OLB43 Utah State P2 3 74 Buffalo Brian Linthicum TE Michigan State P3 4 105 Buffalo Matt McCants OT UAB P3 4 124 Buffalo Malik Jackson DE43 Tennessee 5 137 Buffalo Brock Osweiler QB Arizona State P4 5 139 Buffalo Chris Rainey WRS Florida P4 6 169 Buffalo DeQuan Menzie CB Alabama P4 7 199 Buffalo Jeff Fuller WRP Texas A&M P4 7 229+ Buffalo Matt Reynolds OT BYU P4

That should be an eye-opener, especially since we had a need for LB's before you consider cutting Andra Davis and Reggie Torbor. Maybe we're looking at THREE LB's in this draft, not two.

He's mobile, but less of a player in the pocket than teams will like. If I had to guess, he's going late to Denver. I think the name on that list to think about is Corp. Here are notes from Wes Bunting during Senior Bowl week: "When you watch his footwork from under center and when asked to re-set his feet and balance himself in the pocket, he looks like a NFL caliber QB. He throws a catchable football; looks natural on the move and his arm strength should continue to slightly improve as he adds more bulk/strength to his lean frame. Watching Richmond QB Aaron Corp today, the guy displays impressive balance from under center through his drop, he maintains good width through the base and has a little snap when transferring his weight. He doesn’t have a great arm, but spins a clean football, demonstrates a quick release and throws a really catchable football. Plus, he looks coordinated on the move and when asked to boot to his right, he generates a little more torque from the waist and can really snap some throws outside the numbers. Overall, if I had to walk away with one quarterback from this game, Corp would be my guy."

Greatest concern is Bell. 1 complete year out of 4. Draft Martin if he's there!

This. He's now 4th in the conversation. Ingram-Coples-Branch-[Perry / Mercilus tie]

http://www.nfl.com/combine/live?campaign=Twitter_live Defensive linemen are doing their 40's right now.

Our Big Board hasn't strayed too much. These guys are still the top players. 1 Andrew Luck Stanford 6'4" 235 QB 2 Matt Kalil USC 6'6" 295 LOT 3 Morris Claiborne LSU 6'0" 178 CB 4 Trent Richardson Alabama 5'11" 224 RBF 5 Riley Reiff Iowa 6'6" 300 ROT LOT 6 Robert Griffin Baylor 6'2" 220 QB 7 Justin Blackmon Oklahoma State 6'1" 212 WRF 8 Luke Kuechly Boston College 6'2" 235 WILB SILB 9 Quinton Coples North Carolina 6'6" 285 DE43 DE34 10 Courtney Upshaw Alabama 6'2" 268 OLB34 DE43 OLB43 11 David DeCastro Stanford 6'5" 312 OG 12 Fletcher Cox Mississippi St 6'4" 300 DT43 13 Mike Adams Ohio State 6'6" 320 ROT LOT 0 14 Whitney Mercilus Illinois 6'3" 262 DE43 Of the top 14 players, there is nobody I wouldn't take if they were still there.

However, his wife is a 10. http://bit.ly/w7kumP

Utter Hogwash! Best part: "[TBD'ers] are composed by columnists, experts, obsessed amateurs, compulsive listmakers, interns and precocious toddlers, and all are of exactly the same level of accuracy. " Yeah, well, you forgot addicts.

I think drafting a tackle that makes Pro Bowl 7 years in a row would be worth it at 10. My favorite:

I liked WR Wylie as well.

Exactly! Upshaw, Ingram, Mercilus--I like them each for different reasons. Courtney Upshaw 6’1” 270 OLB34/DE43) RD1#8-19 effort and instincts are just icing on the cake would provide some much needed depth and size Pete Carroll: “he is a better player than Von miller….Von was more athletic, but Upshaw is stronger, more technically sound and doesn’t have weaknesses.” power at point 3-4 rush backer or 4-3 DE moves, club, incredible hand fighting technique Bowen and Bunting love Upshaw his recognition skills are elite In the two meetings with LSU and Cam Newton/Auburn, he came up against a lot of run-option. Not only did he show top-end instinct to react to the ball carrier, he also consistently drew the quarterback on the pitch and then adjusted to the runner – essentially taking both opponents out of the play. You see real awareness and athleticism when he tackles the pitch fantastic awareness to react to screens and reverses not an elite athlete, but his pursuit skills more than make up for it not got the ideal length for an edge rusher. However, the guy just ‘gets‘ leverage. He will consistently attack a lineman with great pad level and drive players into the backfield. He has a deceptive second effort when trying to beat blocks, dropping a shoulder and seemingly giving the impression he’s beaten before bursting by a tackle to make the play. rarely gets absorbed by even the biggest lineman despite not having the longest arms, he does a fine job keeping blockers away from his body so that he’s able to dip inside or burst around the edge thick body is comparable to a small three-technique and he has similar skills. At linebacker you’ll be giving up some coverage ability because he’s never going to be able to stick with top-end slot receivers and tight ends (he worked predominantly on underneath coverage at Alabama) Melvin Ingram South Carolina 6’2” 276 RD1#10-19 The Bills are implementing a base 4-3 up front, but plan to be “multiple” on defense in an effort to keep offenses off balance. With versatility as his calling card, Ingram is what the doctor ordered. productive as a 4-3 defensive tackle, 4-3 end and also played 3-4 outside ‘backer in the SEC arguably the best pure pass rusher in the draft wreaking havoc with power, explosiveness, and closing speed that jumps off the page a knack for quarterback disruption Used mainly as a pass rusher by the Gamecocks Buffalo finished 30th in the league in sacks in 2011 Just behind John Abraham in sacks at SC with 21.5 Ingram logged 17 1/2 sacks his last two collegiate seasons (9 sacks in 2010 despite starting only 1 game but played in all 14) 48 tackles is indicative of his run-stopping prowess. Tough: suffered a broken hand early in 2010 game at Vanderbilt but returned to the contest versatile, #1 LB on Chavous list Robinson and Coples say Melvin Ingram is the funniest guy on his Sr. bowl team—Bills could handle that Ingram is a first team All-American - http://www.seniorbowl.com/playerinfo.asp?ID=583 Importantly, Ingram is a team leader. humble guy, no baggage. DE Whitney Mercilus: RD1#8-11 (could be 1st DE off board, to Miami, Buffalo or Seattle) can get to the passer in a variety of different ways, can beat the o-lineman when engaged can run right by him has an arsenal of pass rush moves. forced 9 fumbles, last year (some Warren Sapp like numbers) strong and smart goes after the ball he's not happy just getting the sack, alone—the team player big dropoff if used as a OLB34 athletic ability, size, speed, and intangibles seems to have his act together in all phases heard the knock on Mercilus: Big Ten, one year wonder, blah blah blah. top Big Ten DE from last year’s RD1 in PFF’s Plus Ratings -- J.J. Watt (14 of 16 games) Mario Williams played 12 games in 2005, logging 62 tackles, 24 of them for loss, and 14.5 sacks. Mercilus played in 13 games, and made 57 tackles with 22.5 TFL (#2 in NCAA history). 16 sacks led the BCS, tying another Big Ten DE, Simeon Rice. His 9 forced fumbles was the second-highest single-season total in NCAA history. a redshirt junior but new coach coming in, lost 6 final games 2 sacks in 2 seasons, then 16.5 to lead BCS, 9 FF this season, 6-4 265, quick on the snap (almost offisdes), as DE rushed from standing position like a LB, rejoiced in buddy’s sack, made sack by speed, outside move and a Brucelike angled turn, tackled QB w/ LT on his back; victim of draw to his side, too upright when TFL, has Ware’s “want to” that Channix will like, passion I don’t see in Upshaw as much, pursues even if play to other side, got 2nd sack when 2-teamed, great hand use, best sacks per game in BCS

Whitney Mercilus has talked to the Bears, Chargers, and Bills. Per Chris Brown, "Illinois DE Whitney Mercilus is a pass rusher that’s been forecast to go in the bottom half of round one at the earliest. According to the pass rusher the Bills were one of a handful of teams that spent a lot of time with him here at the NFL Combine. “I met with the Bears, the Chargers, also the Bills,” said Mercilus. ”They showed interest… a lot of interest.” The knock on Mercilus is he didn’t have a breakout season until this past year at Illinois with an impressive 14.5 sacks and 8 forced fumbles. He’s got pure pass rushing ability, and chalks his one year of production up to “still learning the game.” It’s unlikely he’d be an option for Buffalo in round two as he’s expected to test very well here at the Combine in what is a year without a ton of top flight pass rushing talent at the top of the draft board."

Of course we can hope, but we all know that edge rushers and sideline to sideline OLB's will go earlier than their big board rank. If we took Upshaw-Curry, this draft is plenty deep at WR to get one in any round--illustrated in that mock. 5-Chris Rainey WR 5-Brian Quick WR(NFP) 6-Tommy Streeter WR 7-Jeff Fuller WR (NFP) Fuller will go earlier than 7, but how about these RD7 WR's? Damarlo Belcher WR Indiana 6-5 213 12 TD - not James Hardy II Jarrett Boykin WR Va Tech 6’2” 218 -- RD7#200-215, 2 td in va game, great in sugar bowl Lavoisier Tuinei WR Oregon 6’5” 216--inclement weather player, sets up defenders really well, catches away from body, light for a TE, add weight and he’s an H-back, 80 Oregon goes immediately to the ground for 2TDs, great body control, last minute snatch to catch long pass so CB didn’t know, stick legs, needs beef B.J. Cunningham WR Michigan State 6’2” 215, One guy climbing up boards this week, doesn't have elite speed to gain separation, but can create all the separation he needs, variety of polished moves within his routes, 41-game catch streak (ended vs. Dennard), awesome vs. East's defensive backs in Senior Bowl week WR Julian Talley: UMass 6-1, 184, good separation at Senior Bowl week

I haven't said a thing about Brad Smelley at Tight End.

Chris Brown saying he doesn't like the DE's in RD1 makes me think the Bills might use more of a BPA strategy in the first 3 rounds. Who's actually there on some posted Big Boards? I am using National Football Post's Big Board and DraftTek's Big Board to make my mock. So I am showing you the 10th, 41st, 72nd, 105th, 124th, 137th, 138th comp pick, 167th, 200th, and 224th (comp pick, yet to be determined). Here's the player at that draft slot, and which board I used. 1-Courtney Upshaw DE/OLB (DraftTek)--NFP had Blackman there--no way he hits #10 2-Mohamed Sanu WR (NFP)--Chase Minnifield was DraftTek's 3-Vinny Curry DE (NFP) --Robert Turbin, RB Utah State was DraftTek's but Syracuse's Chandler DE was 73rd 4-Malik Jackson DE (NFP) --Kheeston Randall DE34(DraftTek) 4-Deangelo Peterson TE(NFP)--Emmanuel Acho SILB (DraftTek) 5-Chris Rainey WR(DraftTek)--Jaye Howard DT(NFP) 5-Cliff Harris CB (DraftTek)--Brian Quick WR(NFP) 6-Tommy Streeter WR (DraftTek)--Rhett Ellison TE(NFP) 7-Tydreke Powell DT43 (DraftTek)--Jeff Fuller WR (NFP) 7-Patrick Witt QB (DraftTek)--Charles Mitchell SS (NFP)