Astrobot

Sheldon Richardson will be a dominating player. Agree about Hankins--motor and consistency will be an issue. But they were for Wilfork as well. Richardson: http://youtu.be/rCLG6J87S-k

Tim, excellent post! I was going to research this very topic, so you saved me several hours! Thanks! I was suspecting that if I looked over prioritized team needs for each team, that I'd fin 2-4 QB's in RD2 that were pretty good bets. I just ran a simulation here and found the following QB's available at #40: Tyler Wilson QB Arkansas Landry Jones QB Oklahoma Tyler Bray QB Tennessee Zac Dysert QB Miami Ryan Nassib QB Syracuse From your list of teams, Arizona and KC already took their QB's, Geno Smith and Matt Barkley. Jacksonville opted for Bjoern Werner DE43 Florida State and Cleveland took Manti Te'O. Jets took Star Lotulelei DT34. Titans took Dion Jordan in the first and Travis Frederick in RD2, Star Lotulelei is a DT43/34 now at #5 on DraftTek's Big Board and #15 on mine, rated a lot lower if he's a DT34 especially under Pettine's defensive schemes. We have Kyle Williams and Marcell Dareus, who's Star Lotulelei with 10+ more pounds, rotating with Carrington regardless of 4-3 or 3-4. Stars from Tonga, was an out of shape 2nd stringer from Snow College, couldn't qualify academically when he applied to BYU, and would be a luxury pick at a position we're good in. How would Star fill a need? Cordarelle Patterson wasn't on my list for RD1. DraftTek doesn't have him rated as high as TwoBillsDrive, although I have him #28 on my board...stay tuned.

I've done these for several years, but I thought it might help our thinking if I ran the simulation this early, and take votes for the #8 pick through next Tuesday evening to allow for Senior Bowl shakeout. I will be using DraftTek's simulatorto make picks based on our pick in each round. Here is what has happened so far: Round Pick Team Selection Psn School CRI Delta ReachValue 1 1 Kansas City Geno Smith QB West Virginia P2Grab -7 Reach 1 2 Jacksonville Bjoern Werner DE43 Florida State P2 -1 Reach 1 3 Oakland Manti Te'o SILB Notre Dame Grab -4 Reach 1 4 Philadelphia Dee Milliner CB Alabama P2 -1 Reach 1 5 Detroit Dion Jordan DE43 Oregon P1 -4 Reach 1 6 Cleveland Jarvis Jones OLB34 Georgia P1 +5 Value 1 7 Arizona Luke Joeckel OT Texas A&M P2 +3 Value 1 8 Buffalo ??? You may vote for more than one player. If you want to change your vote before Tuesday evening, there is an option to remove your vote and do it again. You're on the clock.

A couple of things: (1) EJ Manuel had the best yards per attempt this year. (2) He may drop for the inconsistency factor so that he's the 7th QB drafted (Nassib-Glennon, Smith, Barkley, Wilson, LJones). Last year, that makes him available at #88, well before our RD3 pick.

Kind of wanted the Bills to win against the Giants.

Nassib in RD2 is a strong likelihood. I don't see other teams gravitating to him before our pick, with the possible exception of the Jets. But they want LT, LG, possibly DT34 (if they switch to 3-4, and they're discussing it), and two OLB34's out of this draft, and they'd have a choice even in RD2 that didn't include Nassib.

Guess who DraftTek's computer picked for the Bills this week! Comments are mine.

I like the computer's choices better at DraftTek (I'm biased)! Bills' Comments in the first 2 Rounds are my own. Astro

I like Okafor (have him at #20 and rising), but I still think Dion Jordan has the higher ceiling, and Damontre Moore is in the conversation at #8. NONE of them would work as NT in a 3-4, and if we go 3-4, Dareus isn't optimal. Hankins is a load, and might last until #8. Trade-down for Jenkins or Bennie Logan is possible. Are you sure you want to go to a 4-3, Mike Pettine?

http://www.drafttek.com/Shrine-Game-Senior-Bowl-Report.asp DraftTek created a page linking all Shrine Game/Senior Bowl reports for us Analysts, and I thought I'd share it with you. Astro

Here are the change of pace running backs, and the slot I have them in pre-Senior Bowl week. Not too many 245 pounders here! 3 65 Jawan Jamison RBC 23 Rutgers 5'8" 200 5 158 Kerwynn Williams RBC 25 Utah State 5'8" 190 6 169 Curtis McNeal RBC 22 USC 5'7" 190 U 225 Spencer Ware (Jr.,decl) RBC 20 California 5'8" 205 U 236 Rex Burkhead RBC 22 Nebraska 5'11" 210 U 278 Kenny Miles RBC 31 South Carolina 5'9" 195 U 282 Ray Graham (law) RBC 1 Pittsburgh 5'11" 193 U 293 Ronnie Wingo RBC 20 Arkansas 6'3" 231 U 295 Miguel Maysonet RBC 5 Stony Brook 5'9" 205 U 306 Michael Dyer (susp.) RBC 5 Ark. Baptist 5'9" 210 U 307 Onterio McCalebb RBC 23 Auburn 5'10" 175 U 329 Montel Harris RBC 8 BC (dismissed) 5'9" 210 U 345 Fitzgerald Toussaint RBC 28 Michigan 5'10" 195

This is the interview I paid the most attention to last year. He mentioned Stephon Gilmore by name. I'd listen to the unsaid sentences in that talk. Dion Jordan was this week's DraftTek computer mock pick for the Bills. IMHO, the best pass rusher in the draft. Picks should be up tomorrow here. I don't see him falling to us, and I think they're looking at Nassib-Wilson-Glennon, don't you, BB?

Love the suggestions, especially M6 to M3, getting the RD6 RB to complement Spiller, and trying the LB-QB-WR-WR-CB order. WRF is a Wide Receiver - Featured WRS is a Wider Receiver - Small, Speedy WRP is a Wide Receiver - Possession guy, not your #1 usually RBC is a Running Back - Change of Pace (either small quick waterbug type or big 245 lb type)

Do you want to keep our positional needs like this for the next draft? Here is the latest mock with those needs. What would you change, knowing ---->Pettine and Hackett's stated styles (great article on Pettine's D here) ---->our Free Agents (mainly Byrd, Levitre) ---->available FA's (pretty good WR's, a couple serviceable but not franchise QB's) ---->strengths of this draft (Big Uglies, TEs, CBs)? On defense, do we look for versatile players all along that are effective in both 3-4 and 4-3 alignments? Astro

Good as Pollard is, I don't want a Super Bowl that is predetermined by intentional injury. The game is going to be one tough battle, but I'd like good football play to determine the outcome.

Yeah, spinal stenosis isn't getting better. He has the least drop-off between being OLB34 vs OLB43, though, and Marrone-Pettine will run a hybrid defense. I'd hope he wouldn't be on our short list.

Good job! I like both QBs, and I think we need a WR1a and WR1b on this team. If Nelson comes back, maybe we have a decent WR corps. Barner is a solid choice, as he can be used in so many ways.

Love It! Would you take Manti Te'O if he falls to #8?

I posted some information here about QB comparison. (Just fixed the uneven columns) It shows Geno Smith's consistency, EJ Manuel's incredible yards per attempt, and McCarron's TD:INT ratio. Landry is your dink and dunker who profited from a good line; Bray was a very good player on a bad team. Nassib knows Marrone's system.

Congrats, MR. Ball!

1-Geno Smith QB---He's dropping on Big Boards (Kiper has him RD2), but his TD:INT Ratio is tops in this draft. (7.0 Geno Smith, 5.58 Barkley, 4.0 Wilson, 3.16 Jones, 2.8 Bray, 2.6 Nassib, 2.6 Glennon) 2-Chase Thomas OLB43 3-Blidi Wreh-Wilson CB 4-Justin Pugh LT - Syracuse LT 5-Denard Robinson WRS 6-Travis Johnson DE 7- Melvin White CB

Yds/Attempt, best 2 years (avg): Manuel 9.0, McCarron 8.72, Wilson 8.66, Smith 8.23, Barkley & Klein 8.2, Jones 7.82, Nassib 7.24, Glennon 6.95 Best year's TD:INT Ratio: 10.0 McCarron, 7.0 Geno Smith, 5.58 Barkley, 4.0 Wilson, 3.16 Jones, 2.8 Bray, 2.6 Nassib, 2.6 Glennon QB's in 2013 Draft with >143 QB Rating more than one year: 3 yrs: Geno Smith, EJ Manuel, Tyler Wilson, McCarron. 2 yrs: Bray-Barkley-Jones I'll take one QB in RD 1-3: Smith if available in RD1, Jones over Nassib in RD2, and Manuel or Bray in RD3. I'll develop another QB in RD7 or UDFA: Florence or Doege in RD7, or Pachall-Dysert-Sorensen in UDFA. 1 5 Geno Smith 1 12 Matt Barkley 1 32 Tyler Wilson 2 43 Mike Glennon 2 48 Ryan Nassib 2 49 Landry Jones 3 73 E.J. Manuel 3 75 Tyler Bray (Jr.,decl) 3 86 Collin Klein 3 88 Aaron Murray (Jr.) 4 108 Matt Scott 4 120 Logan Thomas (Jr.) 5 159 Brendon Kay 7 199 Nick Florence 7 203 Seth Doege 7 208 Zach Mettenberger (Jr.) U 227 Keith Price (Jr.) U 239 Casey Pachall (suspJr.) U 240 Colby Cameron U 246 Jordan Rodgers U 254 Zac Dysert U 255 Taylor Martinez (Jr.) U 274 Brad Sorensen

You can tell a ship is sinking from what the rats are doing.

I prefer Marronix. This order is important. The pickings at #8 for QB and LB43 are more flawed than a pick of WR: In RD2#40, the QB pickings have value, and so does LB43. If we're looking at LB34, then we're good in RD1.

I have Milliner at #5, but Johnthan Banks at #8. You're not losing too much. In 2 weeks Banks had 3 int's one a pick-6 TD. He's had 12 INT and 3 pick-6's in his time at Miss State. I think our D can get coverage sacks up the wazoo.