Astrobot

The trade-downs that I've heard mentioned the most often, from most likely to least: 1. Minnesota. They have the #23 and #25 in RD1, and their top 2 priorities are CB and DT43. Our bait would be Xavier Rhodes, Star Lotulelei, and Sheldon Richardson at 8. Minnesota has also been rumored to want to leapfrog Chicago. The other trade involves the #23, #52, #83 and #102 for our #8 and #41 (less attractive IMHO). 2. Cowboys. They have #18 and #47, and their top 2 priorities are DT43 and DE43, Bjoern Werner, Ziggy Ansah, Star Lotulelei, and Sheldon Richardson are the bait to net those two picks. 3. San Francisco. They have #31, #34, #61, #74, #93 in the first 3 rounds, and their top priorities are TE, FS, SS, DE34 and DT34. Eifert, Ertz, Vaccaro, Sly Williams, Datone Jones, and Jesse Williams would be gone where they pick. 4. Cincy. They have #21 and #37 and their top 2 priorities are SILB, SS, CB and RB. Kenny Vaccaro and Xavier Rhodes would be the bait for them. Bills' Minnesota tradedown mock for the Minnesota #23 and #25 pick, using DraftTek's Simulator: 1 23 Arthur Brown ILB Kansas State ---Bills visit 1 25 Johnthan Banks CB Mississippi State ---Bills visit 2 41 Tyler Wilson QB Arkansas ---Bills visit 3 71 Terrance Williams WRF Baylor 4 105 William Campbell DE34 Michigan 5 143 Gavin Escobar TE San Diego State 6 177 Buffalo Ty Powell OLB34 Harding The other MIN trade gives us: 1 23 Tavon Austin WR WVU 1 25 Kevin Minter ILB LSU 2 53 Robert Woods WRF USC 3 71 Tyler Wilson QB Arkansas 3 83 Terrance Williams WRF Baylor 4 102 Travis Kelce TE Cincinnati 4 105 Terron Armstead OT Arkansas - Pine Bluff 5 143 Malliciah Goodman DE34 Clemson 6 177 Cobi Hamilton WRF Arkansas

I've added recent TN visits, and like Mychal Rivera (Bills have first name misspelled; hopefully they fix that before turning in their card in RD5): RD1---OLB Jarvis Jones, Georgia;----QB Geno Smith;----- ILB Alec Ogletree ------QB Matt Barkley;-----S Kenny Vaccaro; ------ LB Kevin Minter ]RD2---QB Ryan Nassib, Syracuse; -----QB E.J. Manuel;-----OLB Jamie Collins;----QB Tyler Wilson;-----WR Robert Woods RD3---WR Ryan Swope, Texas A&M;----QB Mike Glennon;----QB Matt Scott;----QB Tyler Bray RD4---CB Tyrann Mathieu;-----QB Landry Jones RD5---, TE Mychal Rivera, OG JC Tretter, TE Ryan Griffin, WR Zach Rogers RD7-UDFA---SS Cooper Taylor, Richmond UDFA---FS Malcolm Bronson, McNeese State;----S Jonathan Meeks, Clemson;----WR Russell Shepard, LSU;----Jeff Tuel QB Wash.St.

This morning, Zach Quinn said that Nate Hackett wants an explosive offense, and that he likes Tavon Austin. Quinn isn't the best source, but I've read other sources with the same story: I tried a simulation to see if the Bills could afford to take a "waterbug" slot receiver early. A trade with New Orleans gets it done, as the Saints want their OLB34 of choice, Jarvis Jones:1 15 Buffalo Tavon Austin WRS West Virginia2 41 Buffalo Khaseem Greene OLB43 Rutgers3 71 Buffalo Ryan Nassib QB Syracuse 3 75 Buffalo Robert Woods WRF USC 4 105 Buffalo William Campbell DE34 Michigan5 143 Buffalo Chase Thomas OLB Stanford6 177 Buffalo Oday Aboushi OT VirginiaI love the idea of the Bills trading down, but WRS (speed receiver, slot WR) is more likely Stevie in the slot and putting a WRF (feature receiver) out wide that high-points the ball, gets open, and makes catches while covered (this is Hopkins and Woods, not Patterson or Austin). WR is deep in this class; other positions are not, and shouldn't be our RD1 pick. In the draft above, substitute "Alec Ogletree ILB Georgia" at 15 and "Josh Boyce WRF TCU" at 143, and we're a much stronger team.

Nassib was there in the 3rd. Everyone assumed he sucked when his former coach took Geno. We take both! 1 8 Buffalo Geno Smith QB WVU 2 41 Buffalo Ryan Swope WRF Texas A&M 3 71 Buffalo Ryan Nassib QB Syracuse 4 105 Buffalo Jordan Reed TE Florida 5 143 Buffalo Malliciah Goodman DE34 Clemson 6 177 Buffalo Bruce Taylor ILB Virginia Tech

I have spoken with JC and his father. They both think he's a great fit in Buffalo. He might even be there in RD5.

Zach Line video:

We have lightning and an aging thunder. Take Zach Line in UDFA and let him fight it out with Choice.

And KOKBILLS, we'll just have to disagree about Jarvis Jones. I've munched together all NFL mock drafts and Jarvis Jones is #3-15 in half of them, and #3-24 in all but a few. He'll go to the Jets if we pass him up.

Not after they take Tavon Austin in RD1... This is a good year for small school, under-the-radar players. 3 of the 4 players the Bills brought in this week at Safety and WR weren't on the 400 player list that I had, that DraftScout had, and that Walter Football had on March 1.

UDFA idea: Zach Line SMU 6'0" 230: 1500 yd and 10 tds in'11 in June Jones' run and shoot--Jones' most ever. Spread offense experience, Good RB bad team. FB/H-back potential. 1 of only 4 running backs in this draft who ran > 1,000 yds 3 seasons.

linky?

I think Nix is thinking of a very short list of players he'd take at 8. Jarvis Jones is on that list. Jones is perfect for Pettine--any scheme fit, lot of rush moves, plays well in space, and he's in NFL D now. Only one player in college had 13.5 sacks and 22.5 TFLs. That was Jones. This year's Von Miller, who was on Buddy's radar until the Broncos took him.

Matthieu can get into more trouble in NYC or Philly than the Buffalo Applebee's. He's a good risk in RD4-5.

Using a complete list of the Bills pre-draft visitors, and DraftTek's Simulator, I've made a "Pre-Draft Visit Mock". Each of the three first-round picks that GM Buddy Nix has made in Buffalo (C.J. Spiller, Marcell Dareus, and Stephon Gilmore) all made pre-draft visits to Buffalo. I know Kelvin Sheppard, Cordy Glenn, and others also made pre-draft trips. I've arranged each round from most likely to least likely should the Bills stick to their visits. RD1---OLB Jarvis Jones, Georgia;----QB Geno Smith;----- ILB Alec Ogletree ------QB Matt Barkley;-----S Kenny Vaccaro; ------ LB Kevin Minter ]RD2---QB Ryan Nassib, Syracuse; -----QB E.J. Manuel;-----OLB Jamie Collins;----QB Tyler Wilson;-----WR Robert Woods RD3---WR Ryan Swope, Texas A&M;----QB Mike Glennon;----QB Matt Scott;----QB Tyler Bray RD4---CB Tyrann Mathieu;-----QB Landry Jones RD5---TE Ryan Griffin RD7-UDFA---SS Cooper Taylor, Richmond UDFA---FS Malcolm Bronson, McNeese State;----S Jonathan Meeks, Clemson;----WR Russell Shepard, LSU;----Jeff Tuel QB Wash.St. There are 4 Safeties on this list, three of which are UDFAs plus RD1 Vaccaro. Interesting. I think the plan is to see if Jones-Smith are there at our pick, attempt to trade down for Vaccaro-Minter-Manuel, and use an acquired pick for a Nassib-Collins RD2 and Ryan Swope RD3. Could the Bills be looking at taking 2 QBs (Nassib-Jones, Smith-Jones), or are they doing their due diligence?

This is truth! The most versatile LBs will be drafted on Pettine's D. This means Dion Jordan, Jarvis Jones, Alec Ogletree in RD1 (Minter on the cusp of RD1-2 but you know he'll be an ILB if he's out there) Arthur Brown, Khaseem Greene, Michael Buchanan, and Corey Lemonier in RD2 (I love Lemonier/Greene) Jamie Collins, Sean Porter, and Sio Moore (Jonathan Bostic on the cusp of RD3-4 but he's run defender only) Brandon Jenkins, Chase Thomas, and Cornelius Washington in RD4 (Nico Johnson has Minter's problem---solely an ILB)

It's possible! RD1 Barkley QB RD2 Woods his WR at USC RD3 Jordan Reed TE RD4 Aaron Dobson or Da'Rick Rogers WR RD5 JC Tretter OG RD6 Ty Powell OLB34 Harding or Michael Mauti ILB-S

And if I take WR in RD1, I'm going against the grain and taking Tavon Austin over Patterson, then EJ Manuel over Wilson. Then I'd take my taller WR in RD5, EJ Manuel's WR Rodney Smith, 6'5" 219 lbs. Greene led all LB's in "impact tackles" (tackles for 0-2 yd gains) with 27, beating all LBs almost by factor of 2. Reddick #2 with 17, JJones/Brown both with 15.

If I run with that order, you get: Cordarrelle Patterson WRF or Tavon Austin WRS (Value) E.J. Manuel QB or Tyler Wilson QB (Value) Brian Winters OG (Reach) Vance McDonald TE or Gavin Escobar TE (Value) I'd be happy with that draft. If you take TE before OG, it'd be Cordarrelle Patterson WRF or Tavon Austin WRS (Value) E.J. Manuel QB or Tyler Wilson QB (Value) Jordan Reed TE or Travis Kelce TE in RD3 JC Tretter OG I'd be ecstatic with that draft!

I know that the Bills like JC Tretter. He's a RD4-5 guy, and we have the O-Line coach to develop our line. The Bills were 6th in rushing last year even with Freddy out for so long. Anyone think Hairston or Sanders becomes the LG?

Your late-round picks are awesome. You hit a home run there.

Simulated Drafts by using this idea, swapping our #1 this year for someone else's #1 next year plus a mid-RD2: Green Bay wants Damonte Moore: 1 26 Green Bay Damontre Moore OLB34 Texas A&M 2 41 Buffalo Tyler Wilson QB Arkansas 2 55 Buffalo Robert Woods WRF USC 3 71 Buffalo Vance McDonald TE Rice 4 105 Buffalo Terron Armstead OT Arkansas - Pine Bluff 5 143 Buffalo Malliciah Goodman DE34 Clemson 6 177 Buffalo Travis Long OLB34 Washington State Dallas wants a falling Sharrif Floyd: 1 8 Dallas Sharrif Floyd DT43 Florida 2 41 Buffalo Jordan Poyer CB Oregon State 2 47 Buffalo DeAndre Hopkins WRF Clemson 3 71 Buffalo Ryan Nassib QB Syracuse 4 105 Buffalo Joseph Fauria TE UCLA 5 143 Buffalo Malliciah Goodman DE34 Clemson 6 177 Buffalo J.C. Tretter OG Cornell

I have Nico Johnson on my value board in RD4 #114, but wouldn't be pissed if he was our RD3. Sean Porter is another possibility but he's RD3#77. If the Bills take care of QB-WR in RD1-2, either is fine with me! Sean Porter and Sio Moore are the same guy. Porter is the more explosive rushbacker. I am the only draftnik on the planet that thinks Sio is the most inconsistent ILB in the first 4 rounds.

An All-State of Tennessee Draft! RD1-Cordarrelle Patterson, WR RD2-Justin Hunter, WR RD3-(Any QB available...won't matter) RD4-Da'Rick Rogers, WR RD5-Mychal Rivera TE RD6-Dallas Thomas OG (or Rogers Gaines RT and move Hairston to OG) UDFA-Daniel McCullers DT34

In a Mike Pettine offense, there is less differentiation between the LBs, but we've let our weakside linebacker go (Barnett) and signed a strongside OLB (Lawson). We have a weakside OLB (Bradham) that is serviceable. Shep played ILB last year and made 80 tackles. Are we looking for a WILB in the draft? A SILB and have Shep at WILB? As a WILB, I like Khaseem Greene in RD2 and Sean Porter in RD3. Nico Johnson is the most versatile of the three, and would be available in RD3. As a SILB, I love Kevin Minter but he'll likely go before our RD2. So will Manti Te'O (Bears or PGH), I think. Jonathan Bostic would be a good possibility in RD3, and he also is versatile between ILB and OLB, and is a very good run defender. I need to know what need we're filling. Astro

We have 13 O-Linemen right now on the roster and a seasoned O-Line coach, Pat Morris, who's created a top 10 rushing offense nine times in his 15-year NFL coaching career. I have locked Warmack out over at DraftTek so the computer doesn't pick him at #8.