Astrobot

http://www.drafttek.com/2013-NFL-Mock-Draft-Round1.asp "The Trade: 1) The San Francisco 49ers trade selections #31, #34 and #74 to the Buffalo Bills for pick #8 (Per Drafttek's Interactive Trade Value Chart). The Niners are looking to fill a hole at Safety with the selection of Texas' Kenny Vaccaro. The Bills have multiple needs (QB, WR, LB) and not enough draft picks to fill them. It's quite possible that Buddy Nix can get the same QB at pick #31 that they can get at pick #8. Analysis: Let's be clear, the Niners do not make this trade unless they believe the guy they can get will be a difference maker who can take their team to a Super Bowl Championship. With 13 picks in the draft, the team is in position to make more than one trade-up to find impact players. In this scenario, the Niners take Texas Safety Kenny Vaccaro with the Bills #8 pick in order to find a high-level replacement for Dashon Goldson, and also Donte Whitner who is a Free Agent after this season. However Tavon Austin or Dee Milliner (if available) could also be potential targets. The Bills would be happy to do this deal, particularly if West Virginia QB Geno Smith is off the board. Many mocks have Buffalo selecting Tyler Wilson or Ryan Nassib with the #8, but it's a strong likelihood that one or both will be available at #31. Looking at WRs, none of the prospects available in the 2013 draft fall into the "total package" category of Calvin Johnson, AJ Green or Justin Blackmon. As such the 2013 top WR talents ((Patterson, Allen, Austin, Hunter) are generally thought of a back-half round 1 candidates. The Bills could potentially land one of these four with the #34 pick, or just sit back and take the best available player among the teams many needs. This What-If simulation is interesting in that it provides an idea of how the draft may play out for the Niners and Bills, the 2 teams involved in the trade. But also how this trade affects other teams who must now resort to plan B. And it is interesting to see how a two team trade permutates down into the later rounds of the draft." I would do this trade, and SF fans like it too. Bills get Wilson, Hunter, and Okafor for their 8. You can substitute Nassib-Barkley-Manuel for Wilson if you prefer. They're all there at #31 AND #34. The Bills pick Ryan Swope WR and Gholston DE in RD3. I personally would take Swope and Travis Frederick OC/OG in this scenario. He'll be a good one. My other thought would be Swope/Blidi Wreh-Wilson CB to offer McKelvin some competition.

#BarkWood for me too. I won't be disappointed if their thorough vetting of QB's (NINE of them) leads them to another player, though. Agree with Joe Bus that it's likely Barkley-Nassib, with Manuel third.

RD1-Ryan Nassib, QB RD2-Robert Woods, WR RD3-Travis Kelce, TE The beginning of SBNLiveMock couldn't have gone better. Bills fill holes on the O, now today we go for OG, S, and likely a Honey Badger. Join us in the War Room here: Bills War Room Link

Bills War Room Link #SBNLiveMock Bills have taken: RD1-Ryan Nassib, QB RD2-Robert Woods, WR RD3-Travis Kelce, TE

It also prevents Austin going to one of two AFCE rivals.

BB, unleashed is the word. I think only one of the first 4 picks this year will be on Defense, then 2-3 picks on Saturday, depending on wheeling and dealing.

#BarkWood Juszszyk is a TE/FB hybird guy from Harvard. Drafting 2 TE's is unlikely, so scratch Gragg and add a bigger WR there. Maybe Darrin Moore, Texas Tech.

I thought this was going to be a Suck For Bridgewater thread. Nothing to see here. Moving on...

http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/topic/157157-trade-downs-the-4-most-likely/

New England=Zero.

I like your thinking, Damond. I appreciate your tweets as well. Astrobot @TCBILLS_Astro

We think Atlanta moves up higher to get Miliner. Ironically, Cleveland is there again, just like they were for Julio. Atlanta moved from 27 to 6 to get Jones, and this year could move from 30 to 6 to get Milliner. Here are ATL's picks. You can see they could deal their RD1, 2, and 3 to move up, and still have 8 picks. The rich get richer---and Milliner. Simulation of that trade: 1 8 Minnesota Cordarrelle Patterson WRF Tennessee 1 23 Buffalo Kevin Minter ILB LSU (from trade) 2 41 Buffalo Tyler Bray QB Tennessee 2 52 Buffalo Robert Woods WRF USC (from trade) 3 71 Buffalo Corey Lemonier OLB34 Auburn 4 105 Buffalo B.W. Webb CB William & Mary 5 143 Buffalo Chris Gragg TE Arkansas 6 177 Buffalo Corey Fuller WRF Virginia Tech 6 189 Buffalo Khaled Holmes OC USC (from trade) Our Jets Analyst has the Jets taking OLB34 (2 of them) in this draft, one early. If the Jets deal Revis, they would still take OLB34 over CB. In RD1, they like Ansah-Mingo-Eifert, then Trufant.

We're hearing Atlanta moving up to Cleveland's pick for Milliner, but if they prefer another corner, we'd be a good spot as any to pick Rhodes or Trufant.

We'll be re-simulating the draft after every pick on Thursday and Friday night, offering the best alternatives for each team, and commenting on every pick after it's been made. My money's on tradedown with MIN, then taking QB, WR, WR, CB, TE, O-Lineman, FS. I was pleased to have been made editor this year at DraftTek, and we've done real well, so I'm being flown out to Vegas for 5 days on DraftTek's expense, and five of us will keep you informed during the draft from poolside. Thank you to those who looked at DraftTek's mocks, used our simulator, our new trade chart, and our big board. The Draft is pure fun and my passion, and someday those posters who take this all too seriously will get it.

Ansah is a project where Nix will never be around to see him produce. I would take the guy on the other end of that line, Van Noy, not Ansah. Keenan Allen is all right, and has some Stevie in him, but I prefer the other WRs, Cordarelle, Hunter, and Hopkins. Nassib will be third off the board of the QBs, so RD2 before 41. Kiper strikeout.

I like your draft, but I'll take J.C. Tretter in RD6, the guard from Cornell. The Bills like him a lot and have been talking to him. We'll still need a big WR, but the Bills might have him later. Another way: 1-Tavon Austin WRS West Virginia 2-Ryan Nassib, Syracuse 3-Brandon Williams DT34 Missouri Southern 4-Nico Johnson ILB Alabama 5-Marcus Davis WRF Virginia Tech 6-J.C. Tretter OG Cornell

I agree, sooner than later, as there is a lot of CB's in RD2 that'd fit what Pettine's trying to do. We still might take Shamarko Thomas if he falls to RD5, unlikely.

If our choice at 8 includes Geno Smith, take Geno Smith. If Geno Smith is gone, trade back, even if it includes a 2014 pick. To get Vaccaro (assuming Cleveland doesn't take him at 6),we need to trade back to 14, right before NO and St.L pick, as they've both voiced interest in Vaccaro in RD1. Carolina, at 14, has no RD2 pick, so we trade spots with TBay at 13 for their RD3-#73. 1 13 Buffalo Kenny Vaccaro SS Texas 2 41 Buffalo Tyler Wilson QB Arkansas 3 71 Buffalo Corey Lemonier OLB34 Auburn 3 73 Buffalo Tavarres King WRF Georgia 4 105 Buffalo Will Davis CB Utah State 5 143 Buffalo Kenny Stills WRF Oklahoma 6 6 177 Buffalo Matt Furstenburg TE Maryland

four seasons at Alabama, making 17 tackles. late training camp cut with Ravens, later brought back in March 2011

The more I read about the Pettine defense, I am leaning more and more away from LB in RD1. The signing of Lawson and Dowtin, the workout of Chavis Williams this coming Tuesday, Mario saying he's OK with a rushbacker role, and the returning to form of Mark Anderson make me think we'll wait until later for LB. They brought in Jones, Minter and Ogletree, and in a trade-down, they're still in play. Minter made the highest percentage of his team's tackles. Pettine's also going to need 2 very good CBs; I believe he has one. He'll need 2 very good safeties; he has one. Why not consider Vaccaro who can play both? There will be lots of nickel and dime in that defense. There is some talk that Aaron Williams will shift to a safety role. Bills have investigated 5 Safeties (visits/Pro Days) including Vaccaro, to consider their options down the line. That doesn't include Shamarko Thomas from Syracuse. They could trade down a bit (#10-14 range) and still get Vaccaro. A versatile pass-covering/run-covering SILB is needed for Pettine as well. Minter will be a Minnesota trade-down option in the late 1st. Sean Porter in RD3 or Kiko Alonso in RD4 have value. We need a versatile TE for Hackett--one where the D doesn't know pre-snap if he's in-line to block or run a dump-off. That's not Vance McDonald, my earlier RD3 pick, or Mychal Rivera, my RD4 alternate. But it is Harvard's Kyle Juszczyk in RD4. So my draft board looks like this: RD1---8-----------FS Kenny Vaccaro---- RD1-10-14-------SILB Minter---------------WR De'Andre Hopkins RD2---41----------QB Nassib---------------QB Manuel---------------WR Hunter----------------ILB/OLB Arthur Brown RD3---71----------ILB Sean Porter---------QB Tyler Bray-----------TE Vance McDonald----QB Matt Scott;--------- QB Glennon RD4---105--------TE Kyle Juszczyk--------QB Landry Jones-------SILB Kiko Alonso RD5---143--------OG JC Tretter------------TE Mychal Rivera RD6—177--------TE Ryan Griffin RD7-UDFA- WR Zach Rogers SS Cooper Taylor WR Alec Lemon WR Marcus Sales OLB Ja’Gared Davis, SMU link FS Malcolm Bronson, McNeese State SS Jonathan Meeks, Clemson WR Russell Shepard, LSU QB Jeff Tuel, Washington State OG Zack Chibane, Syracuse TE David Stevens, Syracuse TE Ryan Griffin, Connecticut

Welcome, BSN! We might be set for LB after today. The Bills are working out another LB today, so that means Lawson, Dowtin, and now Chavis Williams would be Bills. None of them is an elite pass-rusher, but remember that Mario Williams and Anderson might be rushbackers as well. #Bills working out former #Ravens LB Chavis Williams on Tuesday, per @drocksthaparty of @nomorelinks. #BillsMafia http://instagram.com/p/YFm3RnEF1j/

One more time: RD1---8------------DE/OLB Dion Jordan---OLB Jarvis Jones-----QB Geno Smith (Mingo won't be a Bill—weakness is run def) RD1---Trade------QB Matt Barkley---------QB Manuel-----------FS Kenny Vaccaro-------LB Kevin Minter-ILB Alec Ogletree RD2---41----------WR Justin Hunter---------QB Nassib---------OLB/DE Jamie Collins---QB Wilson------WR Swope RD3---71----------TE Vance McDonald------QB Glennon--------QB Tyler Bray------------QB Matt Scott RD4---105---------QB Landry Jones---------TE Kyle Juszczyk RD5---143-------- OG JC Tretter--------------TE Mychal Rivera-------TE Ryan Griffin--------WR Zach Rogers RD6—177-------- OLB Ja’Gared Davis, SMU link RD7-UDFA--------SS Cooper Taylor------WR Alec Lemon-------WR Marcus Sales UDFA FS Malcolm Bronson, McNeese State SS Jonathan Meeks, Clemson WR Russell Shepard, LSU QB Jeff Tuel, Washington State OG Zack Chibane, Syracuse TE David Stevens, Syracuse TE Ryan Griffin, Connecticut

I see how it could be Vaccaro, but it doesnt address our top 3 needs, QB, WR, Rushbacker. It won't be Mingo. The weak spot in his game is the Bills' weakness in their game---run defending. That leaves us with QB at 8, and Dowtin's signing indicates to me that the trade down for ILB isn't happening either. If I had to guess right now, we'll go QB in RD1, CB in RD2, Vance McDonald TE in RD3, Da'Rick Rogers WR in RD4.

Dean Kindig ‏@TCBILLS_Astro2m Pettine WILB Dowtin inked http://sbn.to/17vYVnl -Was a logjam of ILBs RD1-17 to 32. If #Bills trade down now, it's not for ILB #DraftTek I tweeted this because it means no Ogletree, Minter, Te'O and other ILBs when we trade down.

Buddy isn't likely to make the bold move like trade down to San Francisco's spot (although 49'ers would love Kenny Vaccaro before Cincy/San Diego nab him). Perhaps Whaley can talk Nix into this more conservative scenario. San Diego. SD doesn’t have any extra picks, but you’re talking a Bills trade-down from #8 to #11 for the Chargers’ RD3 pick. San Diego has been said to want (a) Kenny Vaccaro or (b) a shot at a top LT if one falls this far. Well, here's how Lane Johnson falls to #8: 1 1 Kansas City Luke Joeckel OT Texas A&M 1 2 Jacksonville Dion Jordan DE43 Oregon 1 3 Oakland Sharrif Floyd DT43 Florida 1 4 Philadelphia Star Lotulelei DE34 Utah 1 5 Detroit Dee Milliner CB Alabama 1 6 Cleveland Jarvis Jones OLB34 Georgia 1 7 Arizona Eric Fisher OT Central Michigan 1 8 ??? Whaley whispers in Nix's ear, and Nix picks up the black dial phone, and dials 11. Bills trade 3 slots for SD's #74. 1 8 San Diego Lane Johnson OT Oklahoma 1 9 NY Jets Geno Smith QB West Virginia 1 10 Tennessee Ezekiel Ansah DE43 Brigham Young The Bills-SD Trade Mock from there on out: 1 11 Buffalo Cordarrelle Patterson WRF Tennessee 2 41 Buffalo Tyler Bray QB Tennessee 3 71 Buffalo Sio Moore ILB Connecticut 3 74 Buffalo Cornelius Washington OLB Georgia 4 105 Buffalo B.W. Webb CB William & Mary 5 143 Buffalo Chase Thomas OLB Stanford 6 177 Buffalo Matt Furstenburg TE Maryland If Lane Johnson fell to 8, we'd also have other suitors: Miami, New Orleans, Philly. Miami has two RD2 and two RD3 picks, but wrong division. New Orleans wants picks as they have no RD2. Philly has one pick per round and no RD6, The other suitors might involve picks next year, which is a whole other discussion.