Astrobot

I have been looking at trade-downs, talking to analysts for teams who haven't been getting whom they want, and did some simulations where I trade down different distances, focusing on teams with more than one RD2 pick for now. Here's a trade with SF for their 30, 56, and 77. SF wants Jordan Matthews. 9 San Francisco Jordan Matthews WRF Vanderbilt 61 San Francisco Dion Bailey SS USC 30 Buffalo Jace Amaro TE Texas Tech 41 Buffalo Antonio Richardson OT Tennessee 56 Buffalo Bishop Sankey RBF Washington 73 Buffalo Anthony Steen OG Alabama 77 Buffalo Chris Borland ILB Wisconsin 105 Buffalo Mike Davis WRF Texas 137 Buffalo Jonathan Brown OLB43 Illinois 169 Buffalo Ben Gardner DE43 Stanford 201 Buffalo Calvin Barnett DT43 Oklahoma State How far would you trade down if a team really wanted someone at 9?? If this helps, use this trade chart; it's easier.

Check this comparison between Ebron and Amaro: http://edraft.com/nfl/news/2014-nfl-draft-comparison-series-eric-ebron-vs-jace-amaro/ and this one between Seferian-Jenkins and Niklas. http://edraft.com/nfl/news/2014-nfl-draft-comparison-series-austin-seferian-jenkinks-vs-troy-niklas/ I found them to be helpful.

I think the Bills are more satisfied with their TE situation than they think, and while Robinson-(insert Skov here)-Jackson won't generate fan buzz, it may be exactly what the Bills need--a dominant OL and a pair of ILBs that fly around.

He's not shooting far. Andre Williams is my 9th-rated RB. He's tied with Carlos Hyde for the slowest of the top eleven. He has the 2nd-lowest ypc vs AP-ranked teams, including 2.2 ypc vs USC, 2.9 vs Clemson. He hasn't caught a pass this year. He has injury concerns. He profited from the spread (system RB), and he's been injured more than once due to a running style that won't guarantee longevity.

But hasn't that been the problem for 14 years?

Niklas got into less trouble and is a better run-blocker, so yes, there's a chance the Bills look at him closely, but read this for more. I'm still not sold that Niklas will be 3rd TE off the board after Ebron-Amaro: http://edraft.com/nfl/news/2014-nfl-draft-comparison-series-austin-seferian-jenkinks-vs-troy-niklas/

Yeah, I saw Borland and thought, what if we took Packers WR James Jones in FA? Take Borland there. My favorite ILB is Skov for what we're trying to do, but RD2 extra pick is needed for him--RD3#73 will be too late. I suggest you watch a little more video of Robinson and not go Maybin on me.

If Robinson goes early (we'd suspect Oakland, but that's a whole other story), it means Clowney is gone, or else he drops from #5 to #6 Atlanta, who run to the podium. That sets the dominoes falling. Because Atlanta doesn't choose Jake Matthews, Matthews falls to Tampa Bay at #7. TB's choice is now QB (they have Glennon, Kafka, Orlovsky but Tedford will want his own), OT Jake Matthews, OLB Anthony Barr, and OLB Khalil Mack. We think they go with Mack over Matthews (greater need), but if they don't sign a FA, they take the last of the top 4 QBs. Minnesota would like QB to fall to them, but if not, they take Mack over Barr, whose stock is falling, and Matthews, who continues to fall. This gives the Bills a choice of the best ILB (Mosley), the best TE (Ebron), and the tied-for-best or 2nd best but still All-Pro OT (Matthews). Enviable scenario. ----------- simpleman, DraftTek's mocks are done by computer, and it will not "reach" for a player or position given its shopping list by Two Bills Drive. The current shopping list is a good discussion. Here was the positional needs listfor the mock draft we just put online at midnight: P1---None (You can only have one P1 need, so computer selects BPA at all P2 positions) P2---RT, OG, TE, WR, ILB P3---DE43, FS, RB, WR P4---OC, QB, OLB43, SS, CB P6---DT43, LT P9---everything else

My reasoning for having DE as a P3 Need: Schwartz needs to have DE's for his Wide Nine to work. Schwartz drafted more DL in his time on Lions than any other position. MWilliams and KWilliams are 2 of the 5-oldest Bills Branch is one of the 7-oldest Dareus' and Hughes' contracts are up next year. http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/

Looking back at it, we didn't address inside linebacker next to Kiko, and that's more important than TE, IMHO. However, we have an obscene amount of cap room (and I'm cutting Pears, Kolb for an extra $6M) for free agency. We'll have to explore the FA market for some of these drafted positions and see what gives.

http://www.drafttek.com/2014-NFL-Mock-Draft-Round1.asp I say "our" because Bills' team needs are generated here at Two Bills Drive by polls and discussion. I'm proud of the editing I did this week as I made sure Analysts included at least one link. Astro

I love the set-up. Here would be those combinations: OT-Robinson OG-Xavier Su'a-Filo or Cyril Richardson TE-C.J. Fiedorowicz OG-David Yankey OT-Jack Mewhort TE-C.J. Fiedorowicz TE-Ebron OT-Jack Mewhort OG-Anthony Steen or Gabe Jackson TE-Ebron OG-Xavier Su'a-Filo or Cyril Richardson OT-Seantrel Henderson OT-Robinson TE-Seferian-Jenkins OG-Anthony Steen or Gabe Jackson OG-David Yankey TE-Seferian-Jenkins OT-Seantrel Henderson Unfortunately, he underwent surgery again this week: hope 3 times is the charm, but he's damaged goods.

Skov's ACL injury 2011 and suspension (first game of 2012 following DUI arrest over offseason) will cause him to fall. He has a lot to prove at the Combine. We have him at 45, so it'll be close. QB in the 3rd is Jimmy Garoppolo. He's rated the 7th QB on our board, the 91 meaning right at the end of RD3. The 7th QB taken last year was at 115. I could see him moving up to 5th above McCarron and Brett Smith if his Combine works out for him. The 5th QB last year went at 110, so not a big difference. I was impressed that Garoppolo did well at the Shrine Bowl, then turned around and learned a whole new offense in a week before the Senior Bowl. His dominance in the FCS (53 TDs and only 9 interceptions) is impressive. Plus he looks like Flutie. Why I like Baptiste and McGill at CB has everything to do with their length and height. McGill (6'1") is late 4th Round value, Baptiste (6'2") is late 5th. I doubt we'd be taking a CB before then. Wilder is one of the nicest guys, too. You'll need that EJ-FJ-SJ-like charisma, and Wilder has it. Listen to an interview and you'll see what I mean. See if you don't think of Stevie here:

I've done this for a few years. It's fun to look back to this thread in April (this year May). RD1 Greg Robinson ROT Auburn C.J. Mosley ILB Alabama Ha'Sean Clinton-Dix FS Alabama Eric Ebron TE North Carolina Zack Martin OG Notre Dame RD2 A Seferian-Jenkins TE Washington Aaron Donald DT43 Pittsburgh Troy Niklas TE Notre Dame Kyle Fuller CB Virginia Tech Shayne Skov ILB Stanford RD3 Ryan Groy OG Wisconsin Jimmy Garoppolo QB Eastern Illinois Pierre Desir CB Lindenwood Brandon Coleman WRF Rutgers Trent Murphy DE43 Stanford RD4 Kareem Martin DE43 North Carolina Seantrel Henderson ROT Miami (FL) Morgan Moses ROT Virginia Billy Turner ROT North Dakota St JaWuan James ROT Tennessee RD5 Denicos Allen OLB43 Michigan State Bryan Stork OC Florida State Stanley Jean-Baptiste CB Nebraska Brandon Linder OG Miami (FL) Arthur Lynch TE Georgia RD6 Calvin Barnett DT43 Oklahoma State Caraun Reid DT43 Princeton Boseko Lokombo OLB43 Oregon Terrance West RBF Towson James Wilder Jr. RBF Florida State RD7 Marquis Spruill OLB43 Syracuse Joel Bitonio OT Nevada Michael Schofield OT Michigan Jay Prosch FB Auburn Jeremy Gallon WRS Michigan

Bills will have taken a RB and not WR by Round 4.

One moment...I just spit coffee on the keyboard and monitor! Schaub. Unless you meant the $99 car-painting guy or the tax guy.

I admit Lewan's nastiness can get under opponents' skins (got Gholston thrown out of a game, for example). Will you want him playing for Miami? http://guyism.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/Taylor-Lewan.gif http://abload.de/img/lewanmtush.gif http://abload.de/img/chippyuws7q.gif Never mind. I was thinking of Rob Moore's connection to Dwayne Bowe.

Don't the new coaches have a connection to Nicks? http://www.buffalorumblings.com/buffalo-bills-discussion/2014/2/16/5414076/nfl-free-agency-2014-buffalo-bills-james-jones

I'm glad you agree. There is some ballwashing going on ("He made Manziel who he is" etc.), and I just tweeted that Evans' leaps sometimes don't clear the CB's ankle socks.

The buzz now is that the Bills would be more likely to get their WR via FA rather than the draft, so this may be a moot point. I'm not kicking Anquan Boldin (49ers) or James Jones (Packers) out of bed for eating crackers. Boldin's more likely to re-sign, but he'd be a good 2-3 year contract, while a 4-5-year contract might interest the younger Jones, who's set to explore FA.

RD3 Brandon Coleman WRF Rutgers Jared Abbrederis WRF Wisconsin Bruce Ellington WRS South Carolina Mike Davis WRF Texas Donte Moncrief WRF Ole Miss For me, Moncrief has the most to gain and Mike Evans has the most to lose at Combine.

You made three very important points, Dennis. Matthews-Robinson are the swing guys that the Bills could take in the first round. Lewan is not a RT, nor could he move inside (although he'll make a nice LT for CIN, NO, or STL, each of whom has less need for the RT). Watkins, and to a lesser extent, Mack, would be sheer value at 9. I'm staying in the camp that says we need ILB not OLB for Alonso to increase his effectiveness. Both are gone by 9 in our next DRAFTSIM. Finally, a trade-down would let us get four top 100 players instead of three as it did last year. I ran a sim yesterday netting Robinson RT, Skov ILB, Seferian-Jenkins TE, and Brandon Coleman WR in the top 3 rounds.

Even though Bills could use Mosley, Trade Down with St. Louis, who is hot for Mosley. We get Ebron, Skov, Mewhort, and Gabe Jackson. Ej gets weapons Ebron and Martavis Bryant, and time to throw behind Glenn-Jackson-Wood-Urbik-Mewhort. 1 13 Buffalo Eric Ebron TE North Carolina 2 41 Buffalo Shayne Skov ILB Stanford 2 44 Buffalo Jack Mewhort OT Ohio State 3 73 Buffalo Gabe Jackson OG Mississippi or Anthony Steen OG Alabama 4 105 Buffalo Martavis Bryant WRF Clemson 5 137 Buffalo Kenny Ladler FS Vanderbilt 6 169 Buffalo Chaz Sutton DE43 South Carolina 7 201 Buffalo John Urschel OG Penn State

Here is the laundry list: I've listed players who will go in the Top 3 Rounds (Top 100) LT---P1=Miami. P2=New Orleans. P3=ARI, CAR, CIN, STL. 6 needed (Matthews, Robinson, Richardson, Kouandijio, Lewan, Martin, Mewhort) RT---P1=None. P2=Baltimore, Buffalo, Miami. P3=CAR, STL, WAS. 6 needed (Matthews, Robinson, Richardson, Kouandijio, Henderson, Moses, Mewhort OG--P1=None. P2=BUF, IND, MIA, NO, SEA, STL, WAS. Need 7: Yankey, Su'a-Filo, Martin, Richardson, Steen, Jackson, Groy http://bit.ly/Ir8MTi You can see the problem and the solution here. Several LT's can also play RT. We think LTs Lewan (LT only) and Martin (could be good OG) are less-likely successful on the opposite side of the line. Likewise, RTs Henderson and Moses (both RT only).

the Saints may cut loose some more players (such as Will Smith and/or Roman Harper)