Astrobot

Draft Evan Moore in Round 6 (he's a big WR) and change him to a WR.

Great Post! I hope we look at TE's weapons early and often in this draft. Go Bills!

"I aced the test; I took good notes." Like him. Reggie Smith and Devin Thomas were with him!

Sounds like a trade down to me.

Cody Wallace and Fernando Velasco are OC's in that hard-hit, push-the-pile mode. No Hull, though.

First-Round WR Bust Rate: 64% Tyler Dunne, of the Buffalo Football Report http://buf.scout.com/2/739162.html, puts the wide receivers bust rate among first-rounders at 64%: If only one out of 3 prospects fail at WR, what are our chances with Kelly, who has an injury history; with Hardy, who has character issues; with Thomas, who wasn't a first round pick until recently; with Sweed, who isn't real quick or explosive and may not separate from CB's; with Manningham, who isn't 6'0"...Are we good enough with McGee-Greer-Youboty-James to NOT consider CB at pick #1?

Good find on Jenkins--you're right. I imagine they will have about 10-11 WR's in here during minicamps for 6 positions and 2 PS players. They deep-sixed Aiken and Price (that's 2). I think they take 2 in the draft (say, Malcolm Kelly and Keenan Burton). That's 8 competing for 6 positions. Evans Reed Parrish Jenkins Huggins Mayle Then they will take 2-3 WR's in UDFA from the bottom of my list and some I didn't mention.

How about drafting TE Dustin Kellar then trade up for WR Malcolm Kelly/Devin Thomas? I like some of the DE's in later rounds, and am less enthralled with TE's later on. DE's I like (all 3rd round except Harrington, who's a 5th): Johnny Dingle - WVU Chris Ellis - Virginia Tech Kendall Langford - Hampton Brian Johnston - Gard-Wb Chris Harrington - TxA&M

I heard our return man was going to be Donnie Avery.

Guys I'd Rather Have After Round 5 than Justin Jenkins Round 5 Keenan Burton WR - Ky 6'1,201,4.4 Round 6 Mario Urrutia - WR Louisville, 6'6", 232, 4.5 Round 7 Marcus Monk - AK 6'4,222,4.5 Marcus Smith, NM, 6'2,221,4.5 Micah Rucker, WR - E Illinois, 6'6 217, 4.4 Chaz Shilens WR - SanDiego State, 6'4,208,4.3 Ernie Wheelright, WR- Minnesota, 6'5,215,4.5 Bruce Hocker,Duquesne,6'3,206,4.5, Mark Bradford, Stanford,6'1",211,4.6 (Trent's target) Justin Harper VaTech,6'4,213,4.5

Five weeks from Saturday, we have the draft. What 5 players from each Round would you like to have on the Bills? Here's my list, based on what we know right now. Round 1 1. Vernon Gholston DE - Ohio State 2. Devin Thomas - Michigan State, WR, KR 3. Dustin Keller TE - Purdue 4. Sweed or Hardy 5. Derrick Harvey DE- Florida Comment: I'll be more excited if this draft is about offense., but if Gholston or Harvey are there, it's a harder choice...Malcolm Kelly's not on this list until he holds his Pro Day. Dan Connor is probably 6th. Round 2 1. Antoine Cason CB - AZ 2, Martellus Bennett TE - Texas A&M 3. Calais Campbell DE- Miami 4. Jerod Mayo LB - Tennessee 5. Gosder Cherilus OT - BC Comment: Bennett is a risk pick that could pay off big time, Campbell is a 280 pound fast DE who could make the D-Line complete, Cherilus falling to us in Round 2 is improbable but he's that good, and Mayo is zooming up the boards so he may not be there. Round 3 1. Jordy Nelson WR -Kansas St 6'3 4.5 2. Owen Schmitt FB - WVU 3. John Carlson TE - ND 4. Mike Pollak OG/OC -Arizona State 5. Frank Okam DT - Texas Comments: I'm taking Schmitt in the 3rd not the 4th, so I'm not disappointed. Jordy Nelson is on my short list of WR's I'd get excited about having. Pollak is one of only 2-3 in the draft that can supplant Fowler at Center against the AFC East's bigger DT's. Frank Okam will be a force in this league, for us or against us--I think he's the top tackling DT in this draft. Round 4 1. Bruce Davis OLB - UCLA 2. Paul Hubbard WR -Wisconsin 3. Josh Johnson QB - San Diego 4. Brian Johnston DE - Gardner-Webb 5. Antwaun Molden CB - E Kentucky Comments: Brian Johnston's a a fast 280 pounder that I think will collapse the pocket. Josh Johnson is Lynch's cousin--mobile, agile, and smart. Hubbard may be the best downfield blocker among the WR's. Bruce Davis is the temperament and speed I want at OLB. Molden has 4.3 speed but needs seasoning. Round 5 1. Cody Wallace OC - A&M 2. Keenan Burton WR - Ky 6'1,201,4.4 3. Kevin O'Connell QB - SD St. 6'5 4.6 4. Jamie Silva SS- Boston College 5. Thomas Brown RB - Georgia - 204 4.5 Comments: Cody Wallace is big and perhaps the hardest hitter among Centers. Burton is known for quickness, and a great "out" pattern. Kevin O'Connell would be a dynamite #3. Jamie Silva was a Thorpe finalist which is character personified, plus 115 tackles this year, plus special teams demon. Thomas Brown is perhaps the quickest of the backs, and complements Lynch well. Round 6 1. Mario Urrutia - WR Louisville, 6'6", 232, 4.5 2. Jacob Hester RB/FB - LSU 3. Evan Moore (WR, chg to TE) - Cal 4. Darrell Strong-TE Pgh 6'5"265 - physical receiver 5. Corey Lynch - FS Appalachian State - 92 tackles this year Round 7 1. Chaz Shilens WR - SanDiego State, 6'4,208, 4.3. Kevin O'Connell's target. Some see him going in the 6th. 2. Micah Rucker, WR - E Illinois, 6'6 217, 4.4 3. Paul Smith QB - Tulsa - 5000 yards. 4. Ernie Wheelright, WR- Minnesota, 6'5,215,4.5 5. Jonathan Wilhite CB - Auburn 4.38 speed.

The choice we might have is to trade down and still get the impact WR. Especially since we can't decide which one is "IT" at #11.

The signing of William James and Bryan Scott help the Bills with their draft board, because it becomes less important to snag a CB with the #11 pick. I think the Bills still take a rookie CB, but perhaps not on Day 1 (Justin King, Antwaun Molden, Trae Williams and Patrick Lee should move up on the Bills' radar). The holes that are left for Rounds 1 and 2 are centering around a #2 WR and a TE, and perhaps a falling DE (more on that in a minute). The Bills have had one WR in for a visit already, and he'd be a double help: Devin Thomas of Michigan State, Day 1's only WR/KR. They are said to have some interest in TE Kellen Davis, but he'd most likely be the RD#3 pick. There are only short receivers in RD#2. What can we guess from this? Perhaps the Bills' plan is to do what they've done 3 times in the last 5 years: trade back into the bottom of the first round. Perhaps they'll take DE Merling (whose injuries have caused him to slip a bit) or Hardy at #11, give up their 2nd rounder to trade back in for WR Kelly-Hardy-Sweed (the pick value is equivalent of RD#1 Cowboys pick #22) , and get Kellen Davis in RD#3. Harvey-Sweed-Davis, anyone?

What if I do this? We'll make some changes based on the James signing to our Priorities that the computer uses for the simulation (see this page). I'll reduce our Priority for CB to "3", same as DE. I'll put a Lockout on Mike Jenkins, and see what the computer picks for us then.

Exactly on McCargo/Tripplett! If it was looking at game film that made us get rid of Tripplett, why didn't the coaching staff see that film before now? Belicheat was making adjustments at halftime after seeing film... When we have Youboty there for all the minicamps, training camp, and preseason games, I think we'll have an idea about how he fits, or doesn't. Same with whoever we draft at CB and S, etc., but a sequential learner needs to learn things in sequence. That didn't happen for Youboty.

Sweed or Thomas for me.

Would you take him in the 4th? I think that's when he gets taken.

The new simulation at www.DraftTek.com has the Bills opting for a different CB: DR-C. In this scenario, the Bills question Mike Jenkins' character issues, and attracted to DR-C's size, speed, and savvy that could transform DR-C into the most well-rounded option of the Top Five CB's for Bills' Cover-2. In RD#2, Martellus Bennett gets the pick over Fred Davis for presumably similar reasons. The Bills might be wondering if Davis's tendency to jog plays not meant for him and a reluctance to block are character issues as well. The Bills could use this junior's 6'5" size and hands, but also his zest for the game. In RD#3, the Bills snag the first of their WR's, Jordy Nelson of KSU. At 6'3, 4.5 speed, and a knack for getting open, Nelson is a favorite at TSW, and this sim shows that we can get a bona fide WR this deep in the draft. Round 4 is the "filler" round, as I've said before, and 6'4", 213 lb. Paul Hubbard of Wisconsin is the Bills' pick. In the event that our current Wisconsin Badger bolts for better bucks, Hubbard's 21.8 ypc average and the best blocking skills of the WR class will help us say goodbye. I honestly didn't know which players today's sim would bring us, but I am delighted the Bills took in RD#5 one of the players I mentioned yesterday in a post about what positions to draft in which round. Check it out here: http://www.drafttek.com/round52008.html His speed isn't what you'd expect from a guy 280 pounds. This is the best simulation yet. Astro

Since Rounds 1 and 3 are rich in WR and DE, and TE's are available in Round 2, I would go WR-TE-DE, fill in with Round 4 (I still don't think Josh Johnson or Schmitt will last this long, so leaning toward OLB), then O-line, ILB, WR, FB.

He means "Rip Their Front Piece" and "Save The Foul Underwear".

It also doesn't mean that we will ignore safety in this draft. It just won't be Tyrell Johnson in the 2nd any more. Put me down for Jamie Silva in the 5th.

I would like to nominate anybody who thinks they should be nominated, but hasn't even been mentioned.

"In MY Opinion". IMHO="in my humble opinion". IMOWBSGIO="in my often wrong, but still give it opinion".

By now the value boards are coming together at 1 Bills Drive. What is the optimum round for each position to be selected? My opinion: Round 1: This is a great Round for WR's. *Devin Thomas - MichSt, #1 on some boards, he's the only first rounder with Kick Return experience. Are you going to let your #1 CB do kick return? *Malcolm Kelly - Oklahoma--he's the biggest in terms of weight at his height. *DeSean Jackson - From Cal, he's the fastest of thew WR's in round 1, but also the shortest. *Limas Sweed - Texas: Limas might be the safe pick if you want it all, but won't be the best any time in the next 3 years. *James Hardy - Indiana: he's the tallest, but his character questions loom. He may not be drafted until late 1st, or early 2nd. He's not a #11, but that didn't stop the Bills from picking Donte Whitner. Round 1 is also a good round for DE's. Chris Long - Virginia will be long gone at #11. So might Vernon Gholston - Ohio St. But *Phillip Merling - Clemson and *Derrick Harvey - Florida and even Calais Campbell - Miami would be there. Some say if you are going to take a DE, wait, because Campbell could be there at #2. But www.DraftTek.com has him going at #23, so that means that 5 of the year's best DE's will be gone in Round 1. You can't say that about WR's. Round 2 is a great round for TE. Fred Davis - USC has been touted as a good 2nd Rounder, but I'm less sure than I was. He trots his routes sometimes when he doesn't expect the ball. He taunts his opponents and isn't known for good blocking skills. Brad Cottam - Tenn has had a serious injury that actually is still healing, so he's thew McGahee of this draft. Martellus Bennett - Tx A&M is a legitimate choice in the lower half of Round 2; is he in the Bills' plans in a tradedown? John Carlson from Notre Dame could actually find his way into this Round since Cincinnati, Buffalo, and Green Bay are looking and Cottam is a true risk. Round 2 is also a good round for CB's and shorter WR's. In the CB department, we have some quality merchandise, like Antoine Cason (my choice), some smaller products, like Brandon Flowers, and some tried and true items from reliable manufacturers, like Tracy Porter, Terrell Thomas, and Reggie Smith. If you shoppped elsewhere in Round 1, head on over to Wide Receivers and pick up any of four 6'0" prospects, if you plan on getting a taller product later. The six-footers include Early Doucet, Andre Caldwell (the fastest), Earl Bennett, and Mario Manningham. If you want speed and kick returning, we have Donnie Avery and Eddie Royal in the back. Round 3 is a great round for WR's, too. It could be that we've had a run on WR's, and some good ones (like Avery or Royal, William Franklin and Dexter Jackson) are here, plus some of you who wanted taller WR's and held off in Round 2--Jordy Nelson and Jerome Simpson. If you didn't shop earllier for DE, Round 3 is a good time. We have at least 4: Cliff Avril, Chris Ellis, Johnny Dingle, and Kendall Langford. I like Avril's speed (probably the fastest DE in the draft) and Chris Ellis--he's relentless. Round 4 is Filler Time. Here's here you pick up a Bruce Davis at OLB, Jason Jones at DE, Antwaun Molden at CB, Owen Schmitt at FB, Josh Barrett or David Roach at SS, Josh Johnson at QB (Marshawn's cousin), Duane Brown a fast OT, or Art Carmody, the NCAA's all-time point leader in kicks. In Round 5, Buffalo might look at the lines. The O-Line might need a Guard like Pedro Sosa from Rutgers (who sprung Ray Rice many a time) or Kirk Barton of Ohio State, who sprung Wells. The D-Line might rotate in DE's like Chris Harrington (Texas A&M), who is a strong tackler, or Brian Johnston from Gardner-Webb who is the fastest 280-pound guy you'll see in this draft. Wallace Gilberry of Alabama is one more DE prospect at Round 5. Round 6 is time for depth at ILB. Jonathan Goff of Vandy, if he's here, would be an easy top choice. Ben Moffitt from USF is older, but was the best LB in the Big East this year. Jo-Lonn Dunbar (BC) would be a so-so choice; he's too small and slow for our D, IMHO. Vince Hall from Virginia Tech would be available, and I liked their opportunistic defense at Va Tech. Round 7 is prospecting time at the specialty positions. Expect that some of these WR's would still be available: Ernie Wheelright,MN,6'5,215,4.5; Marcus Henry,KS,6'4,207,4.5; Chaz Shilens SDSt,6'4,208,4.3; Bruce Hocker, Duquesne, 6'3, 206, 4.5, (my "no fear" pick); Mark Bradford, Stanford,6'1",211,4.6 (a former Trent Everett target), and Justin Harper VaTech, 6'4,213,4.5 (unused in that offense). Fullbacks expected to be there (after Schmitt, Hillis and Felton) include Jacob Hester, Joel Collins, Carl Stewart, and Jehuu Caulcrick. I like Brandon McAnderson from Kansas State as a UDFA. Quarterbacks I'd expect in Round 7 include Paul Smith of Taulsa, whose 5,000 yards of passing is nothing to take lightly. Matt Flynn, an injured Sam Kellar, and Bernard Morris of Marshall would be worth checking out. 39 Days and Counting...

Could Kelly be the Patrick Willis of 2008? More drafts had Willis coming to the Bills last year. It was never the Bills' intention. I bet we have 2 more WR's parade into 1BD in the next 39 days. Then we'll pick a Strong Safety, or something.