Astrobot

I'm sure this is a veiled pleas for James Hardy in RD#1.

Between the two scenarios there, which would you prefer?

Bradford's only 6'1", but his 41" vertical makes him 6'6"!!!! Plus he has chemistry with Trent Edwards.

I'm going to pick Bennett @ TE, then Jordy Nelson @ WR, then Reggie Smith @ CB. Also would be fine with Chilo Rachal.

Numbers are Spot at Which They Should be Picked: Likely to be Gone (Check First): 23------Dan Connor LB Penn St (don't see us picking MLB at RD#2, but twin Linebacker U guys....) 27------Jerod Mayo LB Tennessee (racing up the draft boards: was it hype or reality? Another MLB) 36------Quentin Groves LB Auburn (only actual OLB in this third of the round) 39------Curtis Lofton LB Oklahoma (this cluster of MLB's will fall) Should Be There When We Pick at #42; Won't Last Until RD3#72 Pick 43------Martellus Bennett TE Texas A&M (Best combination blocker/receiver, more effort than Davis, young=less exper.) 45------Reggie Smith CB Oklahoma (CB-Safety hybrid is a great solution for Cover-2; 4.4 means he can also cover in man) 44------Brandon Flowers CB Virginia Tech (Some will like Flowers here, but I prefer Reggie. Flowers is too small for AFC-E) 40------Trevor Laws DT Notre Dame (Do we take a good 5th DT when we don't have a TE or CB or WR yet? Doubt it) 48------Xavier Adibi OLB Virginia Tech (Sculpted tackling machine is one of best 3 OLB's for us) 50------Antoine Cason CB Arizona (I think Cason is one of the 2 best "fits" for our defense) 60------Jordy Nelson WR Kansas State (If no WR by now, pray for Bennett-Simpson-Hubbard-Johnson-Bradford-Shilens) 66------Chilo Rachal OG USC (Best Guard not named Albert, and fits our line size) Just Say No: 44------Early Doucet WR LSU (If you took your WR in RD#1, it's too ...uh...Early. If you want a tall threat, it's not Early.) 51------Joe Flacco QB Delaware (The Board would crash) 57------Justin King CB Penn St (He's just an average tackler, had a shoulder injury, he's amidst Smith-Flowers-Cason) 58------Pat Sims DT Auburn (If you didn't take Laws, why are you taking Sims?) 73------Charles Godfrey CB Iowa (Wait until RD#3, he's good but be patient) Discuss. Astro

I'd go Woodyard, Schmitt, Fluellen, Steltz. Really like the linebacker-safety potential of Woodyard, and the way he hits makes me think of Winfield's days. We better take Schmitt-Hillis-Collins for a FB, and Fluellen is a space eater. Nothing to say about Steltz except big neck and pretty good special teamer--sound like our departed Stamer?

Might have been the first step to the Cowboys moving on up.

Chilo is definitely on my short list. He's a Guard, with bulk enough to play on our beefy line, and the OC's at this spot in the draft just aren't the Bills type. Have to agree, he'd be the "Whaaaa...?" pick like Edwards last year in Round 3. But everybody would see their wisdom by the Preseason games.

Joe Flacco, Josh Johnson, and Kevin McConnell will have better careers than Henne, Flynn, Ryan, or Brohm. Martin Rucker drops to Round 5, and Marcus Monk drops to Round 7. The Bills draft neither. This Bills take one QB in Round 6, and one in UDFA. Atlanta, Denver, NYJ, Colts, and Buffalo will be judged to have the "best drafts". Florida's Andre Caldwell and Mario Manningham drop to Round 4. Denney has more sacks than Gholston this year. Chilo Rachal OG is chosen for the all-rookie team. The Bills take 2 WR's in this draft and 2 more in UDFA. The Bills don't draft Schmitt, and draft a lesser-known FB in Round 7, and he outgains and out-receives Schmitt in each of hi first 3 seasons. A Tackle is drafted on Day 2. Two Day 2 picks occupy starting roles on the Defense in 2008.

Bowe was last year's best WR rookie. Hardy (who broke a few Bowe records) is this year's best rookie.

[in my best Truman Capote voice]: "Which one of you is the duck?"

Willis

I thought for sure Tuna'd go D-Line and take C-Long or Gholston. It's what he does. I guess they figure they have to keep going with the great offensive choice last year, of T-Ginn,Jr.

I understand he took the physical, passed, and they cut him.

The other piece of it is that #12 and #13 are most likely going O-Line and that's where the feeding frenzy of OT's happens. You want a RB? Talk quickly, 'cuz I only have 10 minutes. #11 is us, in the right place for once.

Sept. 7 Seattle Seahawks 1 p.m.----------------WIN Sept. 14 at Jacksonville Jaguars 1 p.m..----------------LOSE Sept. 21 Oakland Raiders 1 p.m..----------------WIN Sept. 28 at St. Louis Rams 4:05 p.m..----------------WIN Oct. 5 at Arizona Cardinals 4:15 p.m..----------------WIN Oct. 12 Bye Oct. 19 San Diego Chargers 1 p.m..----------------WIN Oct. 26 at Miami Dolphins 1 p.m..----------------WIN Nov. 2 New York Jets 1 p.m..----------------WIN Nov. 9 at New England Patriots* 1 p.m..----------------WIN Nov. 17 (Mon.) Cleveland Browns 8:30 p.m..----------------WIN Nov. 23 at Kansas City Chiefs 1 p.m..----------------WIN Nov. 30 San Francisco 49ers 1 p.m..----------------WIN Dec. 7 Miami Dolphins (at Toronto) 4:05 p.m..----------------WIN Dec. 14 at New York Jets 1 p.m..----------------WIN Dec. 21 at Denver Broncos 4:05 p.m..----------------LOSE Dec. 28 New England Patriots* 1 p.m. .----------------LOSE

Our simulation has Adibi going one pick before ours...in the 3rd.

You bring up a good point. Pollack was at #44 on DraftTek's Big Board last month, is at #62 now, and was the most recent simulation's Bills' pick in Round 3, at #72. But I doubt he'd last to #111 at our pick.

Standard Deviation? Saturday can't come soon enough.

I don't have him on my board, nor do I have any stats. How big is your Johnson, fella? Do you mean Brian Johnston from Gardner-Webb? I'm down with that pick.

The only reason I don't see it as a "great" pick is that it means we either didn't get Fred Davis or Martellus Bennett, or still haven't picked a tall WR in Rounds 1 and 2. I see Carlson as the Chevy Malibu you settled for rather than the Lexus GS450h you could have picked. Both might get you where you want to go, but one might get you there faster.

It's going to be a contest for me between -----Carlson and Tyvon Branch at this spot. One of those won't have been picked in RD#1,2. Pollak is good, but I'd rather go line later than 3rd.

...pick one! Likely There, in Order of Preference: -----72 Mike Pollak OC Arizona St (Mangold 2?) -----89 John Carlson TE - ND 272, above avg block,10ypc (If first 2 picks aren't TE, do it) -----77 Tyvon Branch CB - CT (BB gun incident keeps him out of the top CB's, he's fastest) -----71 Xavier Adibi OLB Virginia Tech (steal of the round, 3rd best OLB after Rivers, Groves) -----80 Tyrell Johnson SS -Arkansas St (would compete for a turn at starter) -----88 Bruce Davis OLB - UCLA (love his swagger, love his blitz) -----79 Eddie Royal WR - Va Tech 4.3 (Kick Returns and a possession receiver) -----81 Ray Rice RB Rutgers (don't need one, but I expect him to fall to here, so great value) -----78 Erin Henderson OLB Maryland (another player who fell after real football was over) -----91 Andre Woodson QB- Kentucky (a little early for the next backup, but would be good) -----101 Josh Johnson QB - SD- 6'3 4.5 (Lynch cousin--wait til the late 5th/6th for Dixon)

I think the trick is to not get so enamoured about one guy so that trading down to a spot like--oh, Minnesota, Philly or Seattle--isn't so scary. You know you will still get a good WR as well as a 3rd Rounder at the least. Look at the bonus players at those 3rd Rounder picks. You get to pick two, your regular third rounder and the third rounder you got for trading "down" for that WR you needed anyway! -----72 Mike Pollak OC Arizona St (Mangold 2?) -----89 John Carlson TE - ND 272, above avg block,10ypc (If first 2 picks aren't TE, do it) -----77 Tyvon Branch CB - CT (BB gun incident keeps him out of the top CB's, he's fastest) -----71 Xavier Adibi OLB Virginia Tech (steal of the round, 3rd best OLB after Rivers, Groves) -----80 Tyrell Johnson SS -Arkansas St (would compete for a turn at starter) -----88 Bruce Davis OLB - UCLA (love his swagger, love his blitz) -----79 Eddie Royal WR - Va Tech 4.3 (Kick Returns and a possession receiver) -----81 Ray Rice RB Rutgers (don't need one, but I expect him to fall to here, so great value) -----78 Erin Henderson OLB Maryland (another player who fell after real football was over) -----91 Andre Woodson QB- Kentucky (a little early for the next backup, but would be good) -----101 Josh Johnson QB - SD- 6'3 4.5 (Lynch cousin--wait til the late 5th/6th for Dixon)

Round 3, #72 Likely Gone, But Check First!! -----55 Chilo Rachal OG - USC 315, 5.12 (2nd only to Albert in potential at OG) -----62 Earl Bennett WR-Vandy 6'0 209 4.4, has SEC record in receptions -----63 Roy Schuening OG - OreState (I like Rachal better for our line) -----64 Charles Godfrey CB- Iowa (Chris Brown recommended Godfrey, and this is a perfect spot for a good CB) -----65 Jerome Simpson WR-CCU (6'2, 4.4, 199, 10.75" hands. What's not to like, Lori?) -----67 Red Bryant DT - TX (I hope he'd be there if we haven't picked up our 4th DT rotation guy) -----68 Brad Cottam TE - Tenn (injury history, but good blocker, and his 16ypc is better than Carlson, Davis, Bennett) Likely There, in Order of Preference: -----72 Mike Pollak OC Arizona St (Mangold 2?) -----89 John Carlson TE - ND 272, above avg block,10ypc (If first 2 picks aren't a TE, time to do it---Stevens is last chance) -----77 Tyvon Branch CB Connecticut (a BB gun incident keeps him out of the top CB's but he's the fastest) -----71 Xavier Adibi OLB Virginia Tech (could be the steal of the round, 3rd best OLB after Rivers, Groves) -----80 Tyrell Johnson SS -Arkansas St (would compete for a turn at starter in some coverages) -----88 Bruce Davis OLB - UCLA (love his swagger, love his blitz) Could Also Consider: -----79 Eddie Royal WR - Va Tech 4.3 (Kick Returns and a possession receiver) -----81 Ray Rice RB Rutgers (don't need one, but I expect him to fall to here, so great value) -----78 Erin Henderson OLB Maryland (another player who fell after real football was over--good value) -----91 Andre Woodson QB- Kentucky (a little early for the next backup, but both would be good ones) -----101 Josh Johnson QB - SD- 6'3 4.5 (Lynch cousin--I'd be tempted to wait til the late 5th/6th for Dixon, O'Connell)