Astrobot

I'll guess the Patriots.

Very good PDF of some history of each team's GM/HC's strategy when picking the first rounder. Excellent read.

Let's say Clausen fell to us, and Bulaga and Campbell are there. Trent Williams is there. Do you think Nix might at least consider a trade before his nap?

In figuring out who might want to trade up for our #9 pick, I needed to know what each team needs early. I used DraftTek's Positional Needs chart that every analyst refreshes each week. I've listed these below: GREATEST NEEDS (greatest one(s) listed first): ARI -- ILB or OLB ATL -- OLB43 or DE43 BAL -- CB then DE34 CAR -- WR, QB, DT43 or DE43 CHI -- OG, FS, OT CIN -- TE, DE43, OLB43, FS/SS CLE --QB, OLB43, CB, FS/SS DAL -- OT DEN -- ILB, WR, OC DET -- RB, OG, OT, OLB34, FS/SS, CB GB -- OLB34, CB, OT HOU -- OG, CB IND -- OG, OC, DT43, OLB43, ILB, CB JAX -- SS, CB, WR KC --- OT, OG, OC, DT34, ILB, SS MIA -- DT34, OLB34, FS, WR MIN -- CB, QB, RB, OT, OG NE --- WR, TE, TE, DE34, OLB34, ILB NO --- DT43, DE43, OLB43, ILB NYG -- ILB NYJ -- OLB34, FS, OG, WR OAK -- OT, OG, QB PHI -- FS, DE43, OLB43, CB, OG, OC PIT -- DT34, OLB34, OT, OG, OC SD --- RB, OT, DT34, ILB, CB SF --- OT, FS/SS, CB SEA -- DE43, QB STL -- QB, WR, WR, DE43, OLB43 TB -- -DT43, DE43, WR TEN -- CB, ILB, WR, OC, WAS -- OT, OG Then I simulated the draft down to our pick. Round Pick Team Selection Psn School 1 1 St Louis Sam Bradford QB Oklahoma 1 2 Detroit Ndamukong Suh DT43 Nebraska 1 3 Tampa Bay Gerald McCoy DT43 Oklahoma 1 4 Washington Russell Okung OT Oklahoma State 1 5 Kansas City Eric Berry SS Tennessee 1 6 Seattle C.J. Spiller RBC Clemson 1 7 Cleveland Joe Haden CB Florida 1 8 Oakland Bruce Campbell OT Maryland 1 9 Buffalo Not picked yet were OT Bryan Bulaga and Trent Williams; OLB's Rolando McClain, Brandon Graham, and Sean Weatherspoon; WR Dez Bryant; FS Taylor Mays; DE43's Derrick Morgan and Jason Pierre-Paul; CB Devin McCourty and Kyle Wilson; and DT34 Dan Williams. Who would want to leapfrog whom? Who Won't: #10. JAX won't trade with us unless it's in the 2nd for Tebow. Hence the possible Tebow posturing the Bills are doing. #12. MIA wants an OLB34 but will get either Graham or McClain by just staying put. #13. SF wants an OT but so do we--they take FS their second choice, or they've already traded up before our pick. Anyone below #24 ---to expensive a trade-up Who Might Trade Up and Why: #11. DEN needs a WR and so does JAX. DEN can have our #9 if they want Dez Bryant. We'd get their 4th and 6th. #16. TEN wants choice of DE43 (Morgan over JPP) and needs to leapfrog DE team Seattle, or to grab McClain before MIA. #18. PIT wants in on the OLB action and needs to leapfrog MIA. It would cost their 2nd rounder, or a 3rd and a player. #23. GB wants OT and 2 are available at #9 (let's say, Campbell and Bulaga). It would cost two 2nd RD picks.

Arthur Jones of Syracuse would be there at 4, and some see using George Selvie in that role. In this scenario we probably wouldn't take Cam Thomas AND Linval Joseph so we might take Rahim Alem of LSU. You might remember the Auburn game where his sack clinched the victory. This video http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YMMGSvD1ChE...feature=related shows Alem the best in pass rush; http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ryng2aKm31Q...feature=related shows him the best vs the run. 1 9 Buffalo C.J. Spiller RBF Clemson 2 41 Buffalo Cam Thomas DT34 North Carolina 3 72 Buffalo Jared Veldheer OT Hillsdale -- tied for top time in the three-cone drill (7.40 seconds) and 20-yard shuttle 4 107 Buffalo Rahim Alem DE34 LSU 5 140 Buffalo Mardy Gilyard WRS Cincinnati -- "water bug" player Nix talks about 6 178 Buffalo Chris Scott OT Tennessee -- Feature player on line that allowed fewest sacks in SEC 6 192 Buffalo Jammie Kirlew OLB34 Indiana 7 209 Buffalo Marcus Easley WRF Connecticut 7 216 Buffalo Kion Wilson ILB South Florida

+1 This is a fabulous list of advice. And I'd find yourself a church first, and meet with the pastor/minister/rabbi.

The bad news and the good news is that he looks like Jason Peters. Light on his feet, he'll make an incredible block on one play and then whiff on a downfield block on the next. Watch #75 here and you'll get the idea.

Agree with this order. Brown is predominantly a zone blocker on film and of less interest to us (unless Gailey is planning on changing his tune on O and D). Williams and Campbell will be good players, and I think Iupati is a tackle when all is said and done.

Yes I do, and the company I work for does too. Bulaga will be the 2nd best LT in this draft.

Very interesting. QB Coach Cortez better work with him on his accuracy, because that's what's missing with this kid. interesting factoid: Cortez comes from the Calgary Stampeders, and the Stampeders own the CFL rights to Jimmy Clausen. I can't confirm definitively whether Cortez was there when the Stampeders drafted Clausen.

I hope Bulaga falls to us or we trade down, because everything else falls into place--you can take your NT second and BPA for the lines in RD3. If we're trying to grab a left tackle later on, it means pickings are slim. Starting off with your awesome 1-3 (which would make me do the Happy Dance): Rd 1 Bulaga LT Rd 2 Cam Thomas NT or Terrence Cody NT RD 3 Washington LT RD 4 Mardy Gilyard WRS Cincy or Ben Tate RB (or both, if I trade Lynch) RD 5 Lindsey Witten OLB34 Connecticut RD 6 Blair White WRF Michigan State RD 6 Vince Oghobaase DE34 Duke RD 7 Freddie Barnes WRF Bowling Green RD 7 Zac Robinson QB Oklahoma State

I ran this simulation, but Golden Tate was taken at #35. to move from 41 up to 34, the Bills need to surrender their 4th. Had they stayed put, they could have taken OG Vlad Ducasse, or one of the top WR's: Arrelious Benn Illinois Damian Williams USC Demaryius Thomas Georgia Tech Brandon LaFell LSU But I am hard pressed trying to recover from your Clausen-Tate scenario in later rounds. The top LT's are gone, so: 3 72 Buffalo Jason Fox Miami or Selvish Capers West Virginia (Take your RT; No real LT's here) 4 107 Buffalo (SACRIFICED FOR TATE) By the 5th Round, you still haven't taken an NT or DE for your 3-4 defense, OR taken your left tackle. 5 140 Buffalo Tony Washington LT or Jeff Owens NT, or Linval Joseph DE34 ECU Better take the incestuous talent in Tony Washington, and hope he's ready to hit something like a DE. OK, time to cobble together a 3-4 defense? 6 178 Buffalo Micah Johnson ILB 6 192 Buffalo Clifton Geathers DE34, Dexter Davis OLB34, 7 209 Buffalo Al Woods DT34 LSU I'd feel better with one more tackle: 7 216 Buffalo Chris Scott OT Tennessee

No problem. I wanted to start a discussion.

I'm looking at this from an available players point of view, and taking McNabb with a 2nd this year would mean having to really stick to our needs for the other picks--LT, NT, DE, WR, OLB, ILB, RT. The draft is deeper at WR and OLB, so I'll take the LT and DT early and the other positions next: 1 9 Buffalo Bryan Bulaga OT Iowa 2 ---------Trade For McNabb----------------------------------------------------------- 3 72 Buffalo Cam Thomas DT34 North Carolina 4 107 Buffalo Mike Neal DE34 Purdue 5 140 Buffalo Lindsey Witten OLB34 Connecticut 6 178 Buffalo Blair White WRF Michigan State 6 192 Buffalo Clifton Geathers DE34 South Carolina 7 209 Buffalo Kion Wilson ILB South Florida 7 216 Buffalo Tony Washington OT Abilene Christian

Let's see. A number 41 pick... Would you rather have McNabb or Terrence Cody? Cody. Would you rather have McNabb or Jerry Hughes? Hughes. Would you rather have McNabb or Brandon Spikes? Spikes. Would you rather have McNabb or Charles Brown? Would you rather have McNabb or Jared Veldheer? Push.

Then change your sig.

I have Clausen the 9th player I would pick in Round 1, and Bradford not on there because he's a false hope at #9. There ARE no other quarterbacks in this draft.

I'm beginning to see the reading comprehension problem --or possibly the inability to follow a thread. Here's the revised draft: 1 9 Buffalo C.J. Spiller RBF Clemson 2 41 Buffalo Cam Thomas DT34 North Carolina 3 72 Buffalo Jared Veldheer OT Hillsdale -- tied for top time in the three-cone drill (7.40 seconds) and 20-yard shuttle 4 107 Buffalo Mike Neal DE34 Purdue P2 5 140 Buffalo Linval Joseph DT34 East Carolina 6 178 Buffalo Chris Scott OT Tennessee -- Feature player on line that allowed fewest sacks in SEC 6 192 Buffalo Jammie Kirlew OLB34 Indiana 7 209 Buffalo Marcus Easley WRF Connecticut 7 216 Buffalo Kion Wilson ILB South Florida Would you rather have 3 DT34's or Dexter McCluster in RD2? He's available... Would you rather have 2 OT's or take Zac Robinson QB at the RD6#178?He's available...

A very nice read, Tipster. It struck more than one harmonic on this old guitar...

Wootton is the enigma of this daft, IMHO. Somebody could grab him as early as RD2 (likely a team with fewer needs) because of his injuries. CBS lists him as 4th best DE and a probable 2nd round pick. WalterFootball has him as the 6th best DE. Other places have him in the 3rd round, Draft Countdown has him as the 7th best DE, and rated the #56 player in the draft, right after...Hughes and Norwood! We think he'll go to a 3-4 team as a DE rather than a LB. I have no memory why I deleted him from my spreadsheet. Tempted to put him in RD2.

OK, Now we've got: 1 9 Buffalo C.J. Spiller RBF Clemson 2 41 Buffalo Cam Thomas DT34 North Carolina 3 72 Buffalo Jared Veldheer OT Hillsdale -- tied for top time in the three-cone drill (7.40 seconds) and 20-yard shuttle 4 107 Buffalo Mike Neal DE34 Purdue P2 5 140 Buffalo Linval Joseph DT34 East Carolina 6 178 Buffalo Chris Scott OT Tennessee -- Feature player on line that allowed fewest sacks in SEC 6 192 Buffalo Jammie Kirlew OLB34 Indiana 7 209 Buffalo Marcus Easley WRF Connecticut 7 216 Buffalo Kion Wilson ILB South Florida Would you rather have 3 DT34's or Dexter McCluster in RD2? He's available... Would you rather have 2 OT's or take Zac Robinson QB at the RD6#178?He's available...

OK. Now I've locked out LeFevour but still I've grabbed Spiller and Linval Joseph, and set QB priority to P3: 1 9 Buffalo C.J. Spiller RBF Clemson 2 41 Buffalo Vladimir Ducasse OG Massachusetts 3 72 Buffalo Cam Thomas DT34 North Carolina 4 107 Buffalo Mike Neal DE34 Purdue P2 5 140 Buffalo Linval Joseph DT34 East Carolina 6 178 Buffalo Eric Olsen OC Notre Dame 6 192 Buffalo Jammie Kirlew OLB34 Indiana 7 209 Buffalo Marcus Easley WRF Connecticut 7 216 Buffalo Kion Wilson ILB South Florida

Wrong. I put a Grab on Spiller in our Simulator and here is the result: 1 9 Buffalo C.J. Spiller RBF Clemson 2 41 Buffalo Vladimir Ducasse OG Massachusetts 3 72 Buffalo Dan LeFevour QB Central Michigan 4 107 Buffalo Mike Neal DE34 Purdue P2 5 140 Buffalo Lindsey Witten OLB34 Connecticut 6 178 Buffalo Eric Olsen OC Notre Dame 6 192 Buffalo Blair White WRF Michigan State 7 209 Buffalo Kion Wilson ILB South Florida 7 216 Buffalo Travis Ivey DT34 Maryland This particular draft was weak at DT, so I adjusted by Grabbing Linval Joseph in RD5. The result: 1 9 Buffalo C.J. Spiller RBF Clemson 2 41 Buffalo Vladimir Ducasse OG Massachusetts 3 72 Buffalo Dan LeFevour QB Central Michigan 4 107 Buffalo Mike Neal DE34 Purdue P2 5 140 Buffalo Linval Joseph DT34 East Carolina 6 178 Buffalo Eric Olsen OC Notre Dame 6 192 Buffalo Jammie Kirlew OLB34 Indiana 7 209 Buffalo Freddie Barnes WRF Bowling Green 7 216 Buffalo Kion Wilson ILB South Florida I prefer the second one even though I like White and Ivey. Getting Joseph, the strongest NT in bench press (tied with Petrus) and one of the most explosive (vertical jump was top 3), makes it tons better in our area of need. Many of you like Freddie Barnes, and Jammie Kirlew would provide motivation for Maybin--he'd likely be the last one to leave the film study room and the practice field.

Here is my Value Board for the first 5 Rounds for the Bills. I have players ranked according to how much of a difference they would make within 2 years, and assuming no acquisitions or trades. I am doing this to stimulate talk about who you'd rank higher/lower, who you'd take off the list, or who you'd add. I have left off Suh, McCoy, Okung, etc. just because they won't be there when we draft. And no...I won't add any CB's or safeties, not even in RD7. Positions listed are ways different teams might employ them; I consider Derrick Morgan the only 4-3 player the Bills might take based on sheer athletic ability in any scheme. --Astro ROUND 1 *Bryan Bulaga Iowa LT LG Derrick Morgan Georgia Tech DE43 *Rolando McClain Alabama ILB OLB43 Brandon Graham Michigan DE43 OLB34 Trent Williams Oklahoma LT RT Dan Williams Tennessee DT34 DT43 C.J. Spiller Clemson RBC KR Jared Odrick Penn State DT43 DE34 DT34 *Jimmy Clausen Notre Dame QB *Bruce Campbell Maryland OT Mike Iupati Idaho OG OT *Anthony Davis Rutgers OT Sergio Kindle Texas OLB34 OLB43 DE43 ROUND 2 Terrence Cody Alabama DT34 DT43 Jerry Hughes TCU OLB34 DE43 Brandon Spikes Florida ILB OLB34 Charles Brown USC OT John Jerry Mississippi OG OT *Arrelious Benn Illinois WRF KR Vladimir Ducasse Massachusetts OG Rodger Saffold Indiana LT LG Jared Veldheer Hillsdale OT *Carlos Dunlap Florida DE43 DE34 ROUND 3 Dan LeFevour Central Michigan QB Mardy Gilyard Cincinnati WRS KR Taylor Price Ohio WRF Jason Fox Miami OT Cam Thomas North Carolina DT34 DT43 Matt Tennant Boston College OC OG *Jason Worilds Virginia Tech DE43 OLB34 *Aaron Hernandez Florida TE Tim Tebow Florida QB Jon Asamoah Illinois OG OT Jordan Shipley Texas WRS KR *Demaryius Thomas Georgia Tech WRP Eric Norwood South Carolina OLB43 ILB Eric Decker Minnesota WRF Mike Johnson Alabama OG ROUND 4 *Linval Joseph East Carolina DT43 DE34 Ben Tate Auburn RBF Dennis Pitta BYU TE Mike Neal Purdue DT43 DE34 Tony Pike Cincinnati QB Donald Butler Washington ILB Selvish Capers West Virginia OT OG Jermaine Cunningham Florida DE43 OLB34 Torrell Troup Central Florida DT43 DT34 J.D. Walton Baylor OC OG Mitch Petrus Arkansas OG Jeremy Williams Tulane WRF Jarrett Brown West Virginia QB Alex Carrington Arkansas State DE43 DE34 Andre Roberts Citadel WRS KR Jamar Chaney Mississippi State ILB OLB43 Kyle Calloway Iowa OT ROUND 5 Lindsey Witten Connecticut DE43 OLB34 Tony Washington Abilene Christian OT Jeff Owens Georgia DT34 DT43 Riley Cooper Florida WRF Arthur Jones Syracuse DT43 DE34 O'Brien Schofield Wisconsin OLB34 OLB43 Blair White Michigan State WRF Ted Larsen North Carolina State OC OG Clay Harbor Missouri State FB TE Rahim Alem LSU DE43 OLB34 Shay Hodge Mississippi WRF Garrett Graham Wisconsin TE Pat Angerer Iowa ILB OLB43 Ciron Black LSU OT OG Sergio Render Virginia Tech OG

You're right. Excellent post. Both will be excellent picks in the later rounds.