Astrobot

With Luck out of the race, Carolina and Denver's positional needs play an increasingly important role in second-guessing what they will do. I'm looking at both teams who pick ahead of us, and here are their needs, along with players that might meet them: 1. Carolina ---------P1: Quarterback. (Cam Newton, still #29 on our Board; awaiting The Game) ---------P2: Wide Receiver.(AJ Green #9 on our Board) ---------P2: DT 4-3 type (Fairley is now #1 on our Big Board, both as a DT43 and a DE34) ---------P2: DE 4-3 type (Dareus is Top DE43 on our Big Board; Bowers is #2 as a DE43 but #17 as a DE34; Fairley is not a DE43) ---------P3: CB (Prince Amukamara is #1 CB, Patrick Peterson is #2 CB but #1 FS--) PREDICTION: FAIRLEY. Wild Card: AJ Green or Cam Newton. 2. Denver ---------P1: None ---------P2: None ---------P3: DT 3-4 type (There is No DT34 we've ranked as RD1 material; Steven Paea is first on Big Board at #41) ---------P3: SILB (Akeem Ayers is #9 on our Big Board) ---------P3: TE (Kyle Rudolph is #16 on our big Board) ---------P4: DE34 (Dareus is #3, J.J. Watt is #15 but rising), WILB (Greg Jones is #25 but falling), Safety (Peterson at #5), CB (Amukamara at #3) PREDICTION: DAREUS. Wild Card: Amukamara, Peterson or JJ Watt. 3. Buffalo ---------P1: None (You can only designate one P1, and our needs are multiple) ---------P2: DT34 (There is No DT34 we've ranked as RD1 material; Steven Paea is first on Big Board at #41) ---------P2: DE34 (Bowers, currently at #17 but rising) ---------P2: OLB34 (Quinn at #8) ---------P2: OT (Sherrod is #10 as a LT but below #26 DeMarcus Love as a RT) ---------P3: TE (Kyle Rudolph is #16 on our big Board) ---------P3: ILB (Akeem Ayers is #9 on our Big Board) PREDICTION: QUINN. Wild Card: AJ Green, Cam Newton, Bowers, or Love. Don't shoot the messnger. Astro

I love me some Cannon! Agree that we have Matthews and (for that matter, Gabbert) way too low. I don't think Matthews overtakes Hightower, but I think Jones is vulnerable as #1 ILB. Quan Sturdivant or Hightower could edge him out by draft time. Let's predict it ends up Hightower, Matthews, Sturdivant-Jones, assuming they all declare. I think Matthews will have a decent game, but I'll still bet the over!

While I'm on a roll, let's trade up 1 with Denver. We switch places in RD#2 and they get our earlier RD#4. We make a big noise about taking Patrick Peterson with the #2 pick, so Cincy gets nervous (Safety is their biggest need). We switch with Cincinnati for --yep-- their RD2 #35, giving us back to back picks at #35 and 36 (about the time that the Pats* are pi$$ing us off. We trade Donte Whitner to Cincinnati (they want FS and SS). We get our earlier 4th rounder back. Net: 6 picks in the top 117. 3 Buffalo Marcell Dareus DE34 Alabama 35 Buffalo Greg Jones ILB Michigan State 36 Buffalo Stephen Paea DT34 Oregon State 68 Buffalo Lance Kendricks TE Wisconsin 99 Buffalo Riley Reiff OT Iowa 117 Buffalo Vinny Curry OLB34 Marshall 130 Buffalo Greg McElroy QB Alabama 164 Buffalo Cliff Matthews OLB34 South Carolina 198 Buffalo Konrad Reuland TE Stanford This gets you a scheme-versatile DE, a solid ILB, and a big guy at nose. Compare to the Other Scenario, where you get 2 dominant linemen early and your OLB earlier: 2 Buffalo Nick Fairley DE34 Auburn 36 Buffalo Stephen Paea DT34 Oregon State 68 Buffalo Lance Kendricks TE Wisconsin 117 Buffalo Vinny Curry OLB34 Marshall 130 Buffalo Casey Matthews ILB Oregon 164 Buffalo Nick Foles QB Arizona 198 Buffalo James Brewer OT Indiana Astro

Several teams have CB as a high priority, too: San Francisco at #7 wants one, Philly at ~#24 wants a pair of 'em, Detroit at #13 wants one as its top priority, and four teams have CB listed as P2---St.Louis (~#14), Pittsburgh(~#30), Oakland (#48), and Arizona (who might Amukamara there or trade their pick). Of those, a trade down to 7 (San Francisco) makes the most sense, although it'd cost them a 2nd and 3rd, or a 2nd and 4th. How about we be generous? We trade down for a 2nd and a 4th from Ariz. and they take Amukamara. We get 6 picks in first 107. 7 Buffalo Marcell Dareus DE34 Alabama 34 Buffalo Greg Jones ILB Michigan State 45 Buffalo Justin Houston OLB34 Georgia 68 Buffalo Lance Kendricks TE Wisconsin 99 Buffalo Corey Liuget DT34 Illinois 107 Buffalo Pat Devlin QB Delaware 117 Buffalo Casey Matthews ILB Oregon 130 Buffalo Lee Ziemba OT Auburn 164 Buffalo Roy Helu RBF Nebraska 198 Buffalo Rob Housler TE Florida Atlantic

http://www.drafttek.com/CMDRound1.asp

Great Draft, StLou!!!!!

Well said. I was impressed by what Merriman said, is planning to do, and is apt to follow through on.

Uh, in the example mock, we passed up Fairley and Dareus for Gabbert. In Round 1. I'll take Gabbert in Round 2, but I want me some D.

Another Non-Bills story: I was at a Dicks Sporting Goods shoot because my wife was business manager for their advertising company at the time, and she had to issue the checks for the actors. They were making one of their commercials with Terry Bradshaw, and in between takes, Terry would throw me the football he'd picked up from the aisles. Every pass was on the money, and I caught every one. I still say that I've caught every pass from an NFL quarterback. Astro

This is the best stuff I have found on Mallett. Scroll to the bottom to read about what right now is hearsay. http://seahawksdraftblog.com/?p=698

I'll take Fairley, who in this draft falls to #6!!!!

I would like to see a Def pick too. BTW, I ran a simulation with AJ Green as our first pick (because it's Spiller-like it could be a Nix pick). It makes us reach on virtually every pick: 1 3 Buffalo A.J. Green WRF Georgia P9Grab -5 Reach 2 35 Buffalo Allen Bailey DE34 Miami (FL) P2 -3 Reach (good vs run, sacks) 3 67 Buffalo Dontay Moch OLB34 Nevada P2 -9 Reach (Moch rhymes with SMOKE ) 4 99 Buffalo Kendrick Ellis DT34 Hampton P2 -20 Reach 4 107 Buffalo Konrad Reuland TE Stanford P4 +14 Value 5 131 Buffalo Andre Branch OLB34 Clemson P3R -34 Reach (no--take Andy Dalton or James Carpenter OT here) The good news in this draft is that it made New England reach, too. I like Konrad Reuland (one of Luck's many targets at Stanford) even more than Preston Dial at TE. Anyone know who his HS QB was? Mark Sanchez.

+1

Got one too. It's smarmy. It's barfy. I want to see the one now from the NFLPA.

A fair assessment all the way through, Thoner... I would add that reasons for taking Fairley even over Dareus (whom I covet) is that we need "inside push" more than "outside edge holding", and we need it every down. I say no to Bowers cuz he just wouldn't be in there on running downs.

Here is a DraftTek draft Simulation with the Bills grabbing Cam Newton (he drops to 6th pick if we don't grab him) 1-3-Cam Newton 2-35-Cameron Heyward DE34 Ohio State 3-67-Jeremy Beal OLB34 Oklahoma 4-99-Kendrick Ellis DT34 Hampton 4-107-Rob Housler TE Florida Atlantic 5-131-Brooks Reed OLB34 Arizona (I'd go Jonathan Cornell ILB Mississippi) This report was produced using Draft Tek's Draft Simulator: http://WWW.Drafttek.com . Posting this report without giving the foregoing information is a copyright violation. Astro

I don't know where you have been, but OLB-ILB have been talked about a ton. I have LB as a major priority for the Bills ---P2 for OLB and ILB on DraftTek, and OLB is set at Multiple M3, which means it's our highest priority and we are willing to take more than one OLB, and take the 2nd one as early as RD3.

Bell just stood around on that one. Brohm patting ball.

Oher sitting on a Gatorade jug getting his right knee still looked at on the sidelines. Sprain could cause Ravens to lose, Cincy to win, and Bills to gain #3 pick, but Cincy needs to overcome 13-0 deficit...

Kelsay and Poz are still playing, whereas Florence, Stroud, and McKelvin are going through the motions.

Ravens starting left tackle Michael Oher limping off the field

I vote that refs out of position can't throw a flag. Kelsay and the Bills wuz robbed.

Finally some pass pressure!!!

Chance of a QB via this Draft < Brohm < Edwards < Fitz

Slow release by Brohm on that one. 0 for 5. Not all the line's fault.