Astrobot

This is particularly true of this year's draft, which after Peterson (the Revis of this year) is deep with very good corners, and after AJ Green, who is a cut above, is deep with very good WR's.

Totally agree, although I may add Cameron Jordan to your list. He's #1 on the 3-4 DE list in my book, not Watt. Wonder what Mayock thinks of Kerrigan.

Okay, I laughed aloud when I read that one.

You can only have one P1 on positional needs. If we could agree on one position, I'd use it; otherwise, with a lot of needs, putting multiple P2's essentially gives you the BPA.

The problem with getting ILB help in the 2nd is that there is nobody there. It's too early to take Kelvin Sheppard, and Martez Wilson, IMHO, will go to one of the last 7 in Round 1. Our LB coach let Sheppard make all the calls on the field in the Senior Bowl, so I think that's our 3rd Rounder. So I think Round 2 is the O-Line or TE, or possibly our backup QB.

Here is what I'm proposing for next week's Bills' Positional Needs at DraftTek: Current Needs are Here. On Offense, I'd like to move QB to P2 and TE to P3, RT to P3. On Defense, I'd like to move CB to P4. (Explanation of DraftTek computer draft sims: For each pick, the DRAFTSIM model refers to the Team Needs Matrix to assess the best player available to the team. In the months leading up to the draft, these codes are tweaked quite a bit in response to goings-on in the world of the NFL. Drafttek is able to produce a new simulation on a daily basis if events warrant, responding to real world trades or other news.) Explanation of Priority Codes P1, P2, P3, etc.: Team Needs Code Descriptions 1 (or P1) - This is the absolutely highest priority team positional need. If a player position (PP) is assigned a P1 code, the program will reach to fill the need. For example if a team is selecting 15th, the program will search to the 25th player (as an example) to fill the P1 need. A team can have only one P1 need. However it is acceptable to have no P1 needs. 2 (or P2) - PP's designated with P2 indicate that the that the team is in great need of starting calliber talent and will reach to fill the need. The reach isn't quite as great as P1. There can be multiple P2's identified per team. Regarding Reach, the reach limit changes as the selection number increases. 3 (P3) - PP's (Player Positions) designated with P3 indicate that the team is in need of starting caliber talent, but will not reach for it. Some teams use a "best available player" draft discipline, this fits the P3 code well. Two notes on P3: a) even though we say "will not reach", there is a little bit of reach. Selection #25 could reach to the #30 rated player to fill a P3 need. b) If the program cycles through all the P1, P2, P3 and P4 needs without finding a player, the program will add more reach to the P3 PP's and seach again for a P3 player. 4 (P4) - PP's tagged with a P4 code are depth needs. P4 is purely a value oriented selection, so there is no reach. 5 (P5) - The P5 code is used to identify positional needs that the team absolutely wants to fill (within reason), but does not want to invest a high draft pick. P5 PP's start the simulation as an equivalent to P4 (depth needs), but in the 4th round all P5 PP's are promoted to P3. Thus the chances of the PP's getting a player fill increase dramatically in the 4th round. 6(P6) - The P6 code is used to identify late round fill needs - like a kicker, fullback, or backup QB. P6's have very low priority in rounds 1-5 and will only fill a player under the most unlucky of circumstances for the team. In the 5th round, a conversion takes place and all P6 PP's convert to P4. P7 and P8 do not exist. They did once but were replicative and never seemed to fill. 9 (P9) - PP's tagged with a P9 code are positions where the team is absolutely set. But there are occurences where the program simply cannot find any player to fill the P1-P6 designations within a reasonable reach. In these cases the P9's will be sifted through and the best available selected.

This, and the fact that making noise about drafting a QB at 3 increases the likelihood of a trade, not only with us, but with Denver.

Great player, improving stock, a need position... and gone by our 2nd pick. Right now, we have him going to the J-E-T-S at #30 in the first round. I have simulated this and there's no hope for RD#2 Justin Houston to Buffalo. Here's why: If Jets go DE in Round 1 (likely Clayborn) because of the huge early falloff in DE talent, then the Steelers take Justin Houston. Then If the Steelers go with their other need (Tackle) and take OT Tyron Smith or Marcus Cannon, then Green Bay takes Houston. If Green Bay goes with their other need (also Tackle) and takes Smith or Cannon, then New England takes OG Pinkston from Pittsburgh, and we can take Houston.

Agree. One of the head honchos at DraftTek doesn't see PP even in the first 5: "...I'm just not as in love with [Peterson] as everyone else honestly. That coupled with CB not being a position where there is typically a 'premium' placed on it makes it hard for me to project him in the top 5 at all honestly. Fox has said that they [Denver] are planning on moving to a 4-3 over the long haul and they don't really have many pieces for that so I figured BPA defense [he thinks Bowers] would be the best route. Ayers and Bowers (with Dumervil as a 3rd down option) would give them good bookends and would help mask the secondary some. Goodman is still a solid starter, Jones is a great nickel and between Cox and Thompson (one of them will break through their off-field stuff...right?). I think they will be ok in the short term. I also think that CB is one of the deeper positions in this draft while I don't really like DE after the first round. I do think they are in good position to trade down come draft day though; if Newton continues riding this wave, there could be a team wanting to jump Buffalo badly to get him. I also don't think Fairley will wind up at 1 in the end (still have no idea who it will be) and he would be the pick if that was the case."

My logic was that Devlin will be gone by the #68th pick. Cameron in the 7th is because our TE's combined amassed 168 yards and 1 TD last year.

I think Moats is the answer. Nix has said he's happy with his OLB's; it's the ILB's he thinks need improving.

Carolina should be interested in Kolb! No inside info on whether they're exploring that option. That'd work for both teams. Here is a sim of the Bills-SF trade scenario (this could also be for Gabbert, not just CB): Bills acquire DT in Free Agency. 1 7 Marcell Dareus DE34 Alabama 2 34 Kyle Rudolph TE Notre Dame 2 45 Pat Devlin QB Delaware 3 68 Sam Acho OLB34 Texas 4 99 Owen Marecic ILB Stanford 4 107 Chris White ILB Mississippi State 4 121 Marcus Gilbert OT Florida 5 130 James Brewer OT Indiana 6 164 Shane Vereen RBF California 7 195 Jordan Cameron TE USC There will be good value in the late (RD5-RD7) rounds this year for TE, RB, and CB. 4-3 DT's will come off the board slower than 3-4 DT's. There will be early runs on DE and the better OT's. I was right on my predictions last year!

fixed.

DraftTek is going to use their Draft Lab to simulate a trade each week. One of the two scenarios involves the 49ers sending picks 7, 45, and 107 to Buffalo for pick 3. San Fran is targeting CB Peterson/Amukamara. Over forty percent of the votes in our discussion went to this scenario (the other one with just under 40% was Cardinals sending picks 5 & 69 to the Eagles for QB Kolb). Would you pull the trigger on the Bills-SF trade?

If the answer is SILB, or "none of the above", I humbly offer the possibility that the Bills will be going after Martez Wilson. Thought of as the best SILB in the draft, Wilson would be a mid-to-late-1st pick. Trading for a first rounder could involve a player on the roster.

Of course I had to simulate it, and I'm all over it like a cheap suit. I think Devlin's on the Love Train and will go in the 3rd, not 5th, but I even like the OT Brewer in RD#5 with Washington's pick there. 1 10 Buffalo Cameron Jordan DE34 California P3 2 34 Buffalo Kyle Rudolph TE Notre Dame P2 2 41 Buffalo Mark Herzlich ILB Boston College P2 3 68 Buffalo Phil Taylor DT34 Baylor P2 4 99 Buffalo Shareece Wright CB USC P3 +3 Value 4 121 Buffalo Greg Romeus OLB34 Pittsburgh P3R -22 Reach 5 130 Buffalo Pat Devlin QB Delaware P4R +7 Value 5 140 Buffalo James Brewer OT Indiana P4R +5 Value 6 164 Buffalo Joe Lefeged SS Rutgers P4R -11 Reach 7 195 Buffalo Kristofer O'Dowd OC USC P4R -15 Reach

As I looked over the the DraftTek results (RD#1-Quinn OLB, then RD#2-Rudolph TE), I noticed that in RD#3, we reached a little to take Kelvin Sheppard, LSU's Strong Inside LB, and passed on Michigan State's Greg Jones, their WILB, who was supposed to have been taken in late RD#2. Part of my question to you is, where you see Poz continuing to flourish, and where you see the greater need. I understand that Danny Batten had been learning the ILB position in team meetings despite his injury, and that we have a ward-ful of LB's next year. I also believe that no fewer than 5 ILB's will be drafted in RD#3, and I believe ILB is very high on Nix's Wish List. I just don't know if he's looking at SILB or WILB. Any idea?

link

They are now using lawyers instead of rats at my buddy's medical lab. 3 Reasons: (1) There are more of them, (2) The lab assistants were getting too attached to the rats, and (3) There were certain things the rats wouldn't do.

PDaDdy, I like your 1-2-3 in your sig line. Quinn, Martez Wilson, Powe would do a lot to stop the bleeding in this run defense. I like that better than this week's DraftTek Mock. I put a Grab in for Wilson in RD2, but Tampa Bay took him at #20 in RD1. Mark my words, there will be a run on DE's in this draft, and Wilson would be a target in a trade-down---112 Tackles, 11.5 TFL and 4 sacks on a team that went through 2 coaching changeovers? Woof! Ramius, Quinn is as far from fat as you can imagine. He's known as Hercules for a reason. Chiseled is the description I like best.

That's not out of the realm of possibility with a great combine, but Fairley gives the Panthers a #1 at 2 positions (DT/DE) where their need is their P1 and P2, whereas Quinn is a OLB---Carolina's 6th most needed position.

+1 Quinn beat the NC linebacker record in the 40, set by Peppers. One of the 49'er analysts calls Quinn the next Freeney--just bigger, stronger, and faster. He's a humble guy who is chiseled like Hercules, will burn up the combine (hopefully there will be one), and his coach calls him The Beast. Gimme Quinn in RD1 and Kyle Rudolph in RD2, and we'll have the best LB and best TE in this draft.

My comments on the DraftTek mock about to be released, where we pick Quinn: "Buddy Nix said the other day that he liked the Bills OLB's. Sure, they have Kelsay and Maybin, and get a hospital ward full of LB's back -- Coleman, Moats, Merriman, Ellison, Torbor-- but aren't you still feeling like the skinny kid at the beach? The finely-chiseled 270 lb. Quinn has sick pass rush ability (I liked the last NC pass rusher a lot) to match athletic rush and coverage skills that have improved steadily. The still-humble Quinn, who coach Butch Davis calls "The Beast", can line up as a DE or OLB, much the same way Peppers was used. Von Miller will have to bulk up to get 20 lbs. lighter than Quinn. Quinn will dominate the combine. And would you rather have a Beast, a Von, or a Prince?" Quinn will clean up at the combine. He broke Peppers' 40 yard dash record for LB's at NC, and will eclipse 4.50 there. The NC safety Deunta Williams says they call Quinn "Hercules". One of the 49'er analysts said Quinn will be "a clone to Dwight Freeney - only bigger, faster, and stronger." I think a 3-4 would wear Von Miller down; that's my opinion. Von Miller is a good 4-3 selection, and less so a 3-4 selection. Either way, he may be good, but he won't be an every-down LB. I actually have Aldon Smith ahead of Miller as my personal #2 OLB choice, with Miller 3rd.

I like your picks. But Would you rather have Brooks Reed or Mark Herzlich, because he was still on the board in RD2. Corey Liuget was also in play, and I'd have to think long and hard about a 4-3 that had Troup and Liuget inside.

Gene at DraftTek posted this list of team defenses recently, and it might help people see the AFC as more predominantly 3-4, and NFC more 4-3. But there is wonderful 4-3 talent in the upcoming draft, so I'm glad Wanny is on board. AFC East: Miami: 3-4 New England: 3-4/4-3 Hybrid BB likes to run, base is 3-4 though. NY Jets: 3-4 Buffalo: Hybrid 3-4/4-3 with more 3-4 looks. AFC North: Steelers: 3-4 Browns: Making the move to a 4-3. Should be interesting, David Bowens, Robaire Smith, and Matt Roth have 4-3 experience but they are either old, ineffective, or a free agent. Same with Eric Barton, Scott Fujita, and Chris Gocong at OLB. Bengals: 4-3 Ravens: 3-4/4-3 hybrid, base is 3-4 AFC West: Raiders: ????? Have heard rumors of switch to 3-4 but up in the air til there is an actual DC [there is now] Broncos: 3-4/4-3 Hybrid. John Fox has said they will play both but the base will remain 3-4 for the short term and 4-3 in the long haul. Chiefs: 3-4 Chargers: 3-4 AFC South: Colts: 4-3 Jaguars: 4-3 Texans: 3-4 Titans: ????? No coaching staff. Gut says they stick with 4-3 NFC South: Falcons: 4-3 Saints: 4-3 Panthers: 4-3 Bucs: 4-3 NFC West: 49ers: 3-4 Cardinals: 3-4 (bet they will be sticking with 3-4) Seahawks: 4-3 Rams: 4-3 NFC North: Packers: 3-4 Bears: 4-3 Lions: 4-3 Vikings: 4-3 NFC East: Eagles: 4-3 Don't know where the rumblings about 3-4 are coming from, I haven't heard anything about that. Andy Reid is adamant about sticking to the 4-3 and they won't be switching from it as long as he's there. Redskins: 3-4 Still need personnel for it but they will keep trying to collect it and make it work. Giants: 4-3 Cowboys: 3-4 Switching philosophy though. Rob Ryan's 3-4 different style/scheme than Wade's. Wouldn't be surprised to see Ratliff kick out to DE and draft some new blood at NT [Phil Taylor from Baylor in RD2?]