Astrobot

This could work really well. In my sim the Bills take: 1-Martez Wilson ILB 2-Justin Houston OLB 2-Allen Bailey DE 3-Colin McCarthy ILB 4-Chimdi Chekwa CB 4-Tim Barnes OC 5-Orlando Franklin RT 5-Julius Thomas TE 6-Joseph Barksdale RT 7-Lee Smith TE I'm all over that, as it builds the defensive side with the first 5 picks, then fills holes with pairs of players competing for each 1 spot on offense.

I'm OK with a groom-able QB this year, should it be after 2 picks on run-stopping defense!!! Lots of options. Colin Kaepernick in RD3#68 is value, Dalton in RD3 late (if we obtain a pick), Greg McElroy in RD5, and Tyrod Taylor in RD7. Our priority needs to be to stop the run up the middle, so I'm thinking in order: ILB, OLB, DT, DE for the 3-4 stops the run. This draft is weak on ILB's, so I think they'll reach or drop down for Kelvin Sheppard in RD2, taking Fairley-Dareus-Miller in RD1 and Kaepernick in RD3.

I'm simulating this trade: Round Pick Team Selection Psn School C 1 1 Carolina Da'Quan Bowers DE43 Clemson 1 2 Denver Marcell Dareus DT43 Alabama 1 3 San Francisco Blaine Gabbert QB Missouri 1 4 Cincinnati Cameron Newton QB Auburn 1 5 Arizona Patrick Peterson CB LSU 1 6 Cleveland Von Miller OLB43 Texas A&M 1 7 Buffalo Nick Fairley DE34 Auburn 2 34 Buffalo Kyle Rudolph TE Notre Dame 3 68 Buffalo K.J. Wright ILB Mississippi State 4 99 Buffalo Greg Romeus OLB34 Pittsburgh 4 107 Buffalo Korey Lindsey CB Southern Illinois 4 121 Buffalo Tim Barnes OC Missouri 5 130 Buffalo James Brewer OT Indiana 6 164 Buffalo Delone Carter RBF Syracuse 7 195 Buffalo Lee Smith TE Marshall

I vote nuts. I see Sheard as a second-tier alternative for the Bills, and a 3rd rounder at that. I don't underestimate the Wannstedt - Pittsburgh connection, but not in RD#1.

I used the DraftTek Simulator to make up 3 drafts for your consideration. They will help me tweak next week's positional needs (For example, in the mock draft coming out tomorrow, we reduced our need at safety due to the recent signings, raised our need at QB, and raised our need at OLB despite what Nix has been saying). We're giving you a say. Let your voice be heard! And please comment! Astro DRAFT A 3 Nick Fairley DE34 Auburn 34 Gabe Carimi ROT Wisconsin 68 Mason Foster ILB Washington 99 Kenrick Ellis DT34 Hampton 121 Pernell McPhee DE34 Mississippi State 130 Julius Thomas TE Portland St 164 Joseph Barksdale OT LSU 195 Ryan Winterswyk OLB34 Boise State DRAFT B 3 Von Miller OLB Texas A&M 34 Akeem Ayers SILB UCLA 68 Jerrell Powe DT34 Mississippi 99 Christian Ponder QB Florida State 121 Marcus Gilchrist CB Clemson 130 Julius Thomas TE Portland St 164 Joseph Barksdale OT LSU 195 Ryan Winterswyk OLB Boise State DRAFT C 3 Cameron Newton QB Auburn 34 Mark Ingram RBF Alabama 68 Dontay Moch OLB43 Nevada 99 Casey Matthews ILB Oregon 121 Pernell McPhee DE34 Mississippi State 130 Joseph Barksdale OT LSU 164 Charlie Gantt TE Michigan State 195 D. Johnson-Koulianos WRF Iowa

Here's what Longball at DraftTek says about Chris Hairston of Clemson (6’6”, 326 lbs) . . . "maybe not the greatest body, but only allowed 1 sack his senior season and graded out over 89% for the season (with multiple “pancakes”). The two-time All-ACC left tackle has the frame and quick feet to develop, but is in need of a quality personal trainer who can redistribute his body mass to help him play lower and with better technique. Without better knee-bend, Hairston may struggle at the next level. A three-year starter at left tackle for the Tigers, Hairston has a massive frame with quick feet, is agile for his size, and exhibits good lateral agility. Can run and hit second-level targets. Extends his arms, has a good initial punch (power is no problem with 33 Combine reps) with excellent hand placement and can slide his feet in pass protection. Yep, he may end up at ROT, but old Long Ball hasn’t given up on him yet!"

It's a bad year to want a ILB, particularly the kind of ILB we need. If I thought we had a chance on Akeem Ayers or Martez Wilson, both could be great complements to Poz. But I fear both won't be there past 19-20-21 (Giants-Bucs-Chiefs), as all will want ILB early and the crop dries up after Sheppard.

Florence was on the field 2nd most often (Kelsay=#1). He was #1 in running plays defended, and we've already gotten rid of #4 (Stroud). He was #1 in the number of plays he was in pass coverage as well. You can't rise from the #32 position in run defense without Drayton Florence.

PLUSES: -Akeem Ayers is a "Top 40" player at three positions: 4-3OLB, 3-4OLB, and Strongside ILB. Versatile. -There are only 2 ahead of him at ILB. -athletic enough to play outside or inside, gifted athlete -can set the edge in obvious running situations, move inside on passing situations, can blitz or cover zone -showed a number of pass-rushing skills in college -A Karlos Dansby comparison is most apt -looked real fluid in LB drill -can spy the QB -Mayock is pigeon-holing Ayers by calling him a 'pure' 3-4 OLB prospect. We disagree. Ayers has more versatility than that. Bills could use this versatility -2nd or 3rd OLB43, but if I were choosing between Ayers and Mason Foster, Foster would get the nod. -ILB is really weak this year so if he was ranked on that list he'd be at or near the top. MINUSES: -As a 3-4OLB Ayers is rated as a 2nd rounder, but there are 8 other guys rated higher than him at 3-4OLB -doesn't have an 'elite' move -don't see him being able to consistently get to the QB in the NFL -didn't look overly impressive in pass-rushing drills at the combine -ideal fit is SILB who blitzes off a 43 set (NYG, PHI, Rams), which likely will be Bills only part-time -in serious need of some better coaching -seems disinterested as a football player -4.80 forty speed at underwear Olympics -seems to wait for the play to come to him. -sometimes gives up on pursuit or fail to deliver the solid shot I'd still take him in RD2, and still like Mason Foster and Kelvin Sheppard a little more.

For me, the key statistic is "When opponents sent five or more pass-rushers, Newton completed 73.5 percent of his passes with five touchdowns and no interceptions". That's enough for me to start thinking about Newton at #3.

I like to think it was Kelly. He used the "Never Give Up" theme at NCCC Commencement: link

The talk about Cam Newton brings up an important point--How long can the Bills wait to fill a gaping hole at ILB? Or take a backup QB? Find NT help that can bump Williams out to DE? Get OLB's in case Maybin's let go, or Ellison doesn't grow? Draft a DE to replace Stroud? Take a RT? Here's my analysis, based on DraftTek Simulator, which uses the post-combine Big Board. You can tell when the computer selections become a "Reach" at any given position. I've decided that two successive reaches of over 8 slots at a given position is the "Last Round", and You Need to draft right before that 2nd reach. I've then put the positions in order, and made suggestions on Best Value at our picks based on who was still there at that pick. Defense: DE43-----Draft Before RD2, Pick 37. Suggestion: Nick Fairley RD1. ILB------Draft Before RD2, Pick 44. Suggest: KSheppard RD2, KJ Wright in RD3, C.Matthews RD4#99. DT34-----Draft Before RD3, Pick 70. Suggest: Jerrell Powe RD3 or Phil Taylor before Jets at RD1#30. OLB34----Draft Before RD3, Pick 95. Suggest: Brooks Reed or Sam Acho RD2; Chris Carter/Cliff Matthews before PGH/GB at RD3#95/96, or Dontay Moch in RD3. There will be no decent OLB's after RD3; all will be reaches. CB-------Draft Before RD4, Pick 118. Suggest: Peterson RD1, Curtis Marsh or Chekwa RD4#99, Gilchrist at RD4#121. S--------Draft Before RD5, Pick 143. Suggestion: Deunta Williams at RD4#99 or Chris Culliver at RD6#164. DE34-----Draft Before RD7, Pick 212. Suggestion: Fairley at RD1, Cameron Jordan before HOU at #11, Heyward at RD2#34 if he drops past NE, Pernell McPhee at RD4#121, Brandon Bair at RD7#195. Offense QB----Draft Before RD3, Pick 75. Suggest: Jake Locker before Seattle RD1#25, Mallett/Kaepernick/Dalton at RD3#68 before SF, TEN, MIA; OR McElroy/Devlin at RD5#130. OG----Draft Before RD4, Pick 123. Suggest: Moffitt if there at RD4#99, or draft second tackle or a center OC----Draft Before RD5, Pick 147. Suggest: Tim Barnes at RD4#121, Ryan Bartholomew RD6#164 RB----Draft Before RD7, Pick 212. Suggest: Da'Rel Scott RD7 or John Clay FA. OT----Draft Before RD7, Pick 217. Suggest: Carimi if he's there at RD2, or Cannon in RD2; Brewer RD5 TE----Draft Before RD7, Pick 222. Suggest: Jordan Cameron at RD6#164 WR----Draft Before RD7, Pick 222. Suggest: D. Johnson-Koulianos at RD7#195, Kris Adams at FA You have to get your DE34 and ILB early. Then NT or OLB34. Based on sheer best value, then, it's: RD1: Fairley DE/DT, Peterson CB/S (Dareus/Bowers were gone) RD2: KSheppard ILB, Carimi RT, Cannon RT, Heyward DE, Brooks Reed OLB RD3: Acho OLB, Carter OLB, KJ Wright/Cliff Matthews ILB, Jerrell Powe NT RD4#99: Curtis Marsh CB, Chekwa CB, Deunta Williams S, Tim Barnes OC, Moffitt OG RD4#121: Pernell McPhee DE34 RD5: Brewer OT RD6: Jordan Cameron TE, Bartholomew OC RD7: Da'Rel Scott RB, Johnson-Koulianos WR FA: Kris Adams WR, John Clay RB

+1 I've posted before that the swing vote in Carimi coming to the Bills' run game is freaking New England. I think they take a OT in this draft; just when they do it will let a Top-5 RT slip to us. Totally agree. He's the Pro Bowl RT that benefits a power run game. He benefitted from Moffitt when they played next to each other, but Carimi fits the mold. I can see the T-Shirt now: "Carimi Wood!"

I like fortitudeness, and think I will add it to my vocabulary. I also like your sig draft. I think the later rounds (e.g. Linnenkohl) can make this draft work for us if we know going in where the scarcities are (OLB34, Safety for example have dramatic fall-off. I'll do a post on that later on that shows the "Last Round" where that position can be drafted). Are you referring to Seinfeld's sidekick? I like Carimi in the 2nd for the Bills' run game; if he's gone then we go ILB.

I think AJ Green or Julio Jones would be the biggest surprise. Going with an offensive player when you have a stable full of pretty strong players at that position would surprise me. Just like last year with CJ Spiller. Cam Newton would be a surprise pick at #3; we have him at #15 on our new Big Board with Gabbert #11. I could see a trade-down, but that would surprise me, too. I think the least chancy pick is Peterson, followed by Von Miller (admittedly at a more needy position), followed by Cameron Jordan.

Everyone knows how great a premium is placed on intelligence. Fitz got a 48 on the Wonderlic in 9 minutes. Here’s this year’s mock draft of players who have it north of the shoulder pads. Commentary is quoted from Draft 101, Capper’s Picks, and DraftTek. 1- Anthony Castonzo - OT - Boston College: A First Team All-ACC pick as a senior . also a First Team CoSIDA/ESPN Academic All-District pick . . . was the first true freshman to start on the offensive line for the Eagles in a decade, and started at every game of his career . . . as a junior, he helped tailback Montel Harris obtain 1,457 rushing yards and a rank among the top 10 rushers in the nation . . . claims a 3.45 GPA as a biochemistry major. 2- Ryan Kerrigan-LB/DE-Purdue - Kerrigan rates a blue-collar, high-motor player with outstanding intelligence and leadership capabilities. He doesn’t have the raw speed and quickness that some of the other players that will get drafted above him, but he is a nasty throwback player that will wrap a ballcarrier, always work to get better and instinctively be in position for the big play. He was the unquestioned leader of the Boilermakers this season. His season of 26 TFLs and 12.5 sacks for the Boilers was most impressive, and he constantly got better in his time at Purdue. May remind you of: Aaron Kampman 3- Mark Herzlich- OLB - Boston College - Herzlich has been a great story in college football. Before missing time battling (and surviving) caner, he was one of the most dominant outside linebackers in all of college football. Herzlich hasn’t had a bad last season for BC, but he hasn’t been as great as he once was, and it’s clear he’s taken a step back. His potential is still through the roof as he is one of the best wrap up tacklers in the NCAA. He’s a very smart player as well, and has very strong instincts. If he can prove that he’s athletically ready for the NFL at the NFL Combine, he could be a 3rd round pick. 4-Sam Acho - DE - University of Texas: Led the NCAA's eighth-ranked defense with 17 tackles for loss, nine sacks, 17 quarterback hits, five forced fumbles and five fumble recoveries . . . named a two-time First Team CoSIDA/ESPN Academic All-America honoree and one of The Sporting News' "20 Smartest Athletes" . . . also a finalist for the Lott IMPACT Trophy and the Wuerffel Trophy . . . earned First Team All-Big 12 accolades as a senior . . . a member of the Allstate AFCA Good Works Team . . . participated in several medical mission trips to Nigeria. 4-Andy Dalton QB TCU Went 42-7 as a starter, including 25-1 the past two, will be at top in Wonderlic. 5- Lee Smith TE Marshall The guy is a big (6-foot-6, 267 pounds) tight end with a reputation as an excellent run-blocker who might even be able to play offensive tackle if he could bulk up. Big, mauling guy, is a pure blocker for third-and-short and in goal-line situations, but can catch the ball. Coordinated and flexible, Good size... Heady... Fairly quick off the LOS... Solid route runner... Good body control and balance... Adequate receiver... Red zone target... Very solid hands... Has improved as a receiver every season... Very good blocker... Fires off the ball when run blocking, stays low and plays with leverage... Flashes good power... Very solid lateral movement and slide... Solid knee bend... Stays on his blocks, gives a good effort... Finishes his assignments... Aggressive, flashes a mean streak... Team captain... Mature, married with two kids. 6- Cortez Allen, CB, The Citadel: A tall, lanky cornerback, Cortez Allen is not afraid to make hard hitting tackles. He also was clocked at under 4.5 by NFL scouts. He has a high football intelligence, and is durable in traffic. His footwork does need work to be effective at the next level, but overall, Cortez Allen is a great value and doesn’t need a lot of work to become a starting cornerback. 7- Mike Mohamed - LB - University of California: Earned Pac-10 All-Academic Team honors as a senior . . . led the team with 95 tackles and also accumulated five tackles for loss, two sacks, two forced fumbles, two quarterback hits and one interception . . . earned First Team All-Pac-10 accolades as a junior with 112 tackles . . . also garnered Honorable Mention All-Pac-10 honors as a sophomore with 87 stops . . . claims 340 career tackles, which places him fourth all-time among Cal defenders . . . Additionally, he has served internships with Cornish & Carey commercial real estate and UBS Financial Services, Inc. UDFA- Chris Stewart - OG - University of Notre Dame: The only player in the storied history of Notre Dame football to attend law school as a player. . . a 2009 CoSIDA/ESPN Academic All-American . . . earned CoSIDA/ESPN Academic All-District honors this season . . . graduated with a degree in history in three and a half years . . . a member of the History Honors Program . . . journeyed to Haiti during his spring break of 2009 for earthquake relief efforts. UDFA-Ben Chappell - QB - Indiana University: Closed his career as one of the most prolific passers in Indiana football history . . . 2010 Honorable Mention All-Big Ten selection... ranks second in all-time passing yards, first in career attempts, first in career completions, first in career percentage and third in total offense . . . his senior season ranks second in total yardage and first in passing yards, completions and attempts . . . the only player in IU history to toss over 50 touchdown passes . . . earned a spot on the 2010 Allstate AFCA Good Works Team . . . posted a 3.70 GPA in accounting.

I just changed Safety to a 9 on our Needs. The next Mock (not tomorrow's) shouldn't draft a safety unless he's the BPA. Black won't be BPA in D3 based on the other unfilled needs.

I thought you were going to talk about Dalton. He will lay wood on you if you intercept him. Was actually injured doing so!! I like Dalton's spirit and bravado, but he's the Clay Matthews of QB's LOL

I like your first 2 picks and last 2 picks a lot. I think Kenrick Ellis is going to go early 3rd, remotely-possibly to us, but there aren't many NT's in the draft and there's a big need. Someone will reach.

Bill, at the time I posted that I'm locking Mallett out, the vote was so one-sided for LOCK-Out that I thought there was consensus. I'll put a GRAB for Mallett in Round 3 to take him if he falls there, and remove the LockOut.

+1

I'd love to see more on Dalton (QB Big Board #58), McElroy #106, Taylor Potts #162, Austen Arnaud #307, and Jerrod Johnson #361.

Production Ratio How often your pass rusher gets into the backfield, using a formula. Very interesting. Also one here for O-Linemen, called Explosion Number.

Only if you know the number for 911.

Mallett is now locked out. Because of size, I am also thinking of locking out Quan Sturdivant Bruce Carter Dontay Moch Ahmad Black Comments? Astro