Astrobot

I have access to ProFootballFocus.com's extensive statistical database (draft droids like that sort of thing). AFC East TE's are increasingly becoming a factor, and it's passing the Bills --and the Jets--by. Look at this: MIA Anthony Fasano, #4 overall rating among NFL TE's out of 107 TE's NEP Rob Gronkowski, #5 NEP Alge Crumpler, #10 NEP Aaron Hernandez #13 MIA Mickey Schuler #34 (led league in yards per reception among TE's) BUF Scott Chandler #39 NYJ Ben Hartsock #52 NYJ Matthew Mulligan #52 (tie) BUF Shawn Nelson #56 NYJ Jeff Cumberland #60 BUF Jonathan Stupar #82 NYJ Dustin Keller #84 BUF David Martin #87 Crumpler (available as a FA last season) ended up as the #3 run blocker. Kleinsasser was a FA and ended up 7th in run blocking. Chandler ended up as the Bills' best pass receiver, but in 61st place. He led in pass blocking (48th place), and in run blocking (#34). Stupar had the best Thrown At/Caught Ratio, 92%. Although 7 TE's had 100% ratios this year, Stupar was next, so 8th in the league. Do we need more from the TE position? Certainly, and we could do much more with whom we have. Is any help going to come from the draft? This is an extremely weak position, so don't count on the Bills drafting Rudolph in RD2. Stocker's stock has fallen so that he'd likely be there in RD3. Kendricks from Washington is a 4th Rounder--sort of a lumbering type. DJ Williams is more athletic and would be a good receiver, but he's 6'2" and not likely better than Chandler/Stupar. I think the Bills have to acquire a TE in Free Agency when --and if-- it happens.

What I don't understand are the mocks that take OLB and QB before addressing our #32 run defense with DE pressure and ILB quickness. There are only a few decent ILB's in this draft. In my opinion, they include Mo Linebackers Sturdivant, McCarthy, and Casey Matthews, and to a lesser extent Jones-Irving-Bynes and Homan. Mike Linebackers Wilson, Sheppard, Foster, and Ayers are good, better than Wright-Herzlich (although I like his attitude)-White-McCarthy. We will not get anyone as good or better than Poz and Batten after RD3, and RD3 is pushing it.

Castonzo-Herzlich Connection This story is a heartwarming connection between Castonzo and Herzlich you have to read. Herlich was the winner of the Disney Spirit Award and some ESPN Award for his fight against bone cancer. I wouldn't mind if they were a trade-down story on Draft Day. We have Herzlich at #102, so, he's more likely a late RD2 or RD3 (DraftTek has him #84 to TB in RD3). But you won't find a better guy in the draft.

This is Truth, I tell you. If we are looking for the low risk, zero character issue player, you nailed all three: 1. Von Miller 2. Peterson 3. AJ Green I'll go one step further and wonder if they tap character in RD2 as well: Mark Herzlich OLB43 or Kelvin Sheppard ILB.

Carimi and Sherrod can be there in RD2. Carimi may not be the guy to protect the blind side in a pass offense, but he's one of the best run blockers in the draft. He's also one of the most experienced (4 years at LT),and we thought he handled the speed rush well at the Senior Bowl. He'd likely be a Pro Bowl RT. Carimi reminds our O-Line expert at DraftTek of a favorite here last year, Bulaga. Here's some more on Carimi from Longball, DraftTek's Director of Scouting:

Agree about Hangartner. I just don't see the Bills drafting at Guard this year. They love Urbik (When they got him Nix said they now had the top 3 o-linemen on their board--Wood, Levitre, and Urbik), and I think they'll give him a shot, esp if Wood becomes full-time Center. Wang will also be in the mix as a guard. Wrotto, Brown, Howard and others are backups.

Me like Virgil Green. Could see them going TE in RD4 (having recently seen the depth chart at TE, we're banking on Shawn Nelson's migraines being really gone, and that ain't a good bet. I like DJ Williams too, but that's too early for the Bills to draft TE. In the early going, we were thinking Love would be a 3rd Rounder. He's value in RD4, especially at that 2nd RD4 pick.

LOL! The name Blaine Gabbert is almost as bad as Steve Martin's character "Gern Blanston". Almost. And Fitzy's beard was goofier than JP's...Newton with his size would be a matchup problem as a TE in motion, too.

While we see him drafted by NEP* as early as Round 1, we feel that this Pouncey isn't THAT Pouncey. Here's what our O-Line expert says: Brooks Reed is just below Justin Houston on our Big Board, #38 overall. Houston will go in RD1, but Brooks Reed can play OLB34, DE43, or ILB. He's a maniac. Here's a good clip: http://www.cbssports.com/video/player/play/nfl_draft_linebackers/hN5Uy2oKEcIOYk6nhpdLRH0PvxYlyO0a

I think Ponder and Kaepernick is a wash (Ponder=shorter, shoulder injury but SEC competition), so I'd go to the tiebreaker of who would pick up an NFL playbook faster. I think Kaepernick has the edge there. No doubt Nix-Gailey liked Ponder on the South squad, though. Ponder has more drop-back experience in play action, and was MVP of the Senior Bowl, so you may be right. I like John Moffitt. He'd be dynamite depth behind Wood at OC-OG, but what do you do with Hangartner? We'll take an RT in this draft, but I like some 6th-Round guys. We may have to ramp up the RT need. The computer seems to like to give us an OC over an RT in the later rounds.

I've put a GRAB in on Matthews in RD4. Should be there. The best argument for Casey over White is that Casey is a better WILB and White is possibly the better SILB--but he's 20 pounds lighter and doesn't have the DNA.

I was pumped to see the results of DraftTek's latest mock draft. I could definitely see this unfold in 35 days. Much of what is said in these last 5 weeks will be smoke and mirrors. I'd love it if these were the Bills' picks. Tell me what you think, because you actually have a voice in setting our positional needs. TSW is the only board I come to to discuss what needs to feed into our computer mock. Astro

This is why I like this board.

http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=6249772 McShay has us taking Gabbert. For what that's worth. I think the Gabbert-Newton love by Nix is mainly an attempt to get a trade-down. All he has to do is get quarterback-hungry ARI, CLE or SF to leapfrog CIN by trading with us for their choice of Newton-Gabbert. What it does is get us a 2nd and 4th Rounder (if not a RD1 next year and a shot at Luck) and an earlier chance at fixing our defense.

Eugene Stasak, one of the DraftTek staff, put together a mock that would agree: Houston doesn't last until the Bills' 2nd rounder. In fact, Brooks Reed was taken by GB at #32, which would put him opposite Clay Matthews.

Correct. According to the Hog Index, we have to shore up big time.

LOL! At your request: 1 3 Buffalo Blaine Gabbert QB Missouri 2 34 Buffalo Justin Houston OLB34 Georgia 3 68 Buffalo K.J. Wright ILB Mississippi State 4 99 Buffalo Lawrence Guy DE34 Arizona State 4 121 Buffalo Marcus Gilchrist CB Clemson 5 130 Buffalo Orlando Franklin OT Miami (FL) 6 164 Buffalo Charlie Gantt TE Michigan State 7 195 Buffalo Kristofer O'Dowd OC USC Pretty much a rehash of the Newton draft.

It's 1000 points to drop from 3 to 12, so I'm taking the Vikes' 2nd Rounder and 3rd Rounder this year and 2nd Rounder next year. The DraftTek Simulation: 1 12 Buffalo J.J. Watt DE34 Wisconsin 2 34 Buffalo Brooks Reed OLB34 Arizona 2 43 Buffalo Mason Foster ILB Washington 3 68 Buffalo Colin Kaepernick QB Nevada 4 99 Buffalo Chimdi Chekwa CB Ohio State 4 121 Buffalo Tim Barnes OC Missouri 5 130 Buffalo Orlando Franklin OT Miami 6 164 Buffalo Mike McNeill TE Nebraska 7 195 Buffalo Harold Ayodele DT34 Emporia State Not a bad start to solidifying the defense and getting offensive depth.

You aren't.

What is your comment about the computers?

"Either-Or" BPA Draft: Top 2 BPA's When We Pick (left out RB's and later WR's) I'm looking at Top players available when we pick in each round. Some good forced choices here. Astro 1 Patrick Peterson CB or Nick Fairley DE34 or Von Miller OLB34 2 Stephen Paea DT43 or Justin Houston OLB34 or Ryan Mallett QB 3 Colin Kaepernick QB or KJ Wright ILB or Jerrell Powe DT34 4 Lance Kendricks TE or Pernell McPhee DE34 4 Kenrick Ellis DT34 or Orlando Franklin RT 5 Greg McElroy QB or James Brewer RT 6 Charlie Gantt TE or Shiloh Keo SS 7 Derek Hall RT or Lee Smith TE

I have been working overtime with DraftTek's Simulator using different philosophies I've read about on TSW. 1. Newton Mock With 4 Ensuing Defensive Selections 1 3 Buffalo Cameron Newton QB Auburn 2 34 Buffalo Justin Houston OLB34 Georgia 3 68 Buffalo K.J. Wright ILB Mississippi State 4 99 Buffalo Lawrence Guy DE34 Arizona State 4 121 Buffalo Marc. Gilchrist CB Clemson 5 130 Buffalo Orla. Franklin RT Miami 6 164 Buffalo Charlie Gantt TE Michigan State 7 195 Buffalo Lee Smith TE Marshall COMMENT: If you are going to take Newton, make 4 defensive picks then an O-Line pick. Taking 2 TE's late. 2. Miller Mock With Huge Run Defense Emphasis, Take a Smart, Midround QB 1 3 Buffalo Von Miller OLB34 Texas A&M 2 34 Buffalo Stephen Paea DT43 Oregon State 3 68 Buffalo K.J. Wright ILB Mississippi State 4 99 Buffalo Pernell McPhee DE34 Mississippi State 4 121 Buffalo Kenrick Ellis DT34 Hampton 5 130 Buffalo Greg McElroy QB Alabama 6 164 Buffalo Charlie Gantt TE Michigan State 7 195 Buffalo Derek Hall RT Stanford COMMENT: This would IMHO be an 'A' draft for us. You take two kinds of DT's and a DE who wreaked havoc at the Senior Bowl. McElroy isn't flashy but he's smart and with winning teams since HS. 3. Fairley Mock, Take Early QB 1 3 Buffalo Nick Fairley DT34 Auburn 2 34 Buffalo Ryan Mallett QB Arkansas 3 68 Buffalo K.J. Wright ILB Mississippi State 4 99 Buffalo Lawrence Guy DE34 Arizona State 4 121 Buffalo Steven Friday OLB34 Virginia Tech 5 130 Buffalo Chykie Brown CB Texas 6 164 Buffalo Jo. Barksdale RT LSU 7 195 Buffalo R. Bartholomew OC Syracuse COMMENT: This is a risk-reward draft; I don't see Nix taking risks like this. Like local boy Bartholomew. 4. TradeDown Mock With ARIZ (for RD2 and RD4), Ariz Wants QB Choice 1 5 Buffalo Von Miller OLB34 Texas A&M 2 34 Buffalo Ryan Mallett QB Arkansas 2 38 Buffalo Mason Foster ILB Washington 3 68 Buffalo Jarvis Jenkins DE34 Clemson 4 99 Buffalo Chimdi Chekwa CB Ohio State 4 102 Buffalo Lance Kendricks TE Wisconsin 4 121 Buffalo Pierre Allen DE34 Nebraska 5 130 Buffalo Orl. Franklin RT Miami 6 164 Buffalo Ryan Winterswyk OLB34 Boise State 7 195 Buffalo Martin Parker DT43 Richmond COMMENT: Lot of players who I think will be stars.

I agree that Dareus would be a great start to our draft. He's the Hybrid Scheme Dream-- DE, DT, 3-4, 4-3, 1st down, 2nd down, 3rd down, don't matter--Dareus can be in there. That's not true of Bowers (especially with the meniscus questions), and not true of Fairley.

Would the combined name be JustinNooki?

BTW, I've sent this particular trade-down scenario along to DraftTek's head 'bot to be considered for one of its "What If" Mock Drafts. I think it's very plausible, especially since they want a CB and Peterson is there for the trading. Thank you! Astro