Astrobot

Thanks, everybody, for the birthday wishes. Yes, I'm 71. No, I don't wear Depends LOL I lurk here semi-occasionally, but I've moved over to BillsMafia.com to write in-depth articles on draft fits for the Bills. http://billsmafia.com/author/deankindig/ I'm also on Twitter a lot @TCBills_Astro Ranks again for the rishes! Rastro

http://billsmafia.com/2017/10/19/bills-positional-priorities-october-edition/ Just wrote this article for BillsMafia.com on the Bills' positional priorities, mentioning college guys who are a fit for our scheme. What do you think? --Astro

Bills Scouted 2017 Games (Teams listed with my Top 150 players) Clemson (DL Wilkins, WR Cain, ED Clelin Ferrell, OT Hyatt, LB Kendall Joseph, OG Hearn/Crowder) Louisville (QB Lamar Jackson, CB Jaire Alexander, OT Geron Christian, DL Drew Bailey) Ohio State (ED SHubbard, LB Booker, ED TLewis, G BPrice, T Jamarco Jones S Damon Webb, TE MBaugh) Tennessee (CB Shaq Wiggins, OC Coleman Thomas, TE Ethan Wolf) Georgia: (LB Davin Bellamy, DL Trenton Thompson, RB Nick Chubb, ED Lorenzo Carter) USC: (QB SDarnold, RB Ronald Jones, CB IMarshall, ED Porter Gustin, LB Cameron Smith, S Chris Hawkins) Washington St : (QB Luke Falk, OG Cody O'Connell, OT Cole Madison)

http://billsmafia.com/2017/09/21/bills-positional-priorities-september-edition/ In my first article for BillsMafia Blog, I did what I used to do here every month: Realign the Bills' positional needs to submit to DraftTek. Hope you give it a read, and that you'll comment there or below. Thanks! Astro

Premium lets you do trades. 1: R1P14 DL LOWELL LOTULELEI UTAH 2: R1P32 G QUENTON NELSON NOTRE DAME 3: R2P4 WR CHRISTIAN KIRK TEXAS A&M 4: R2P28 QB LUKE FALK WASHINGTON STATE 5: R3P14 OT CASEY TUCKER STANFORD 6: R3P16 S ARMANI WATTS TEXAS A&M 7: R3P32 EDGE PORTER GUSTIN USC 8: R3P38 LB JOSEY JEWELL IOWA 9: R4P1 TE MIKE GESICKI PENN STATE 10: R4P14 WR AUDEN TATE FLORIDA STATE 11: R5P1 RB JUSTIN CRAWFORD WVU 12: R5P14 WR RICHIE JAMES MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE

These are great Yolo! I had wanted to make this a weekly but just couldn't find the time. Will set my DVR now!

WR 6 Zay Jones Jordan Matthews Brandon Reilly Andre Holmes Brandon Tate WR, #1KR Corey ""Philly"" Brown WR #3 KR Walt Powell WR #2KR susp; not part of 53 Rod Streater waived/injured Daikiel Shorts PS

Which will most likely be JJ Nelson or Aaron Donald, two speedsters, one of whom won't be needed with JohnRoss coming in.

Folks, I was wrong on this one. I over-relied on FlightAware (jet was leased by someone other than Bills) and on GGSN (who have had questionable "Breaking News" stories). I'll try to do better than this. Astro

Bloke, what's your Twitter handle? The JJ Nelson Story: Yesterday was a busy one. About 8:30 yesterday I got the FlightAware email that one of Pegula's jets was flying to Kansas City and on to Phoenix. Wheeler airport in KC is often used by Pegula as a waypoint to eat and refuel, but it's darn close to the Chiefs' facilities. We knew that Ragland was not a fit for the 4-3, and that Preston Brown was killing it, so I tweeted that a trade could be going down between Bills and Chiefs (DraftTek's Chiefs Analyst has 3-4 MLB listed as a team need). When the trade with KC was announced, I felt vindicated, as I was taking some heat on Twitter. I decided to check reasons why the jet was on to Phoenix, and started checking WR. I went to Ourlads depth chart of the Cardinals first, as they seem to be most up to date. There was a glut of WRs, Fitz, the 2 Browns, Nelson, Chad Williams, Aaron Dobson, John Ross, etc. I checked several articles referring to Cards WRs, and found out Nelson, likely one of the five fastest men in the NFL, was in HC Ariens' doghouse. Besides, Nelson hardly played in the 3rd preseason game; when they needed to take the top off the Falcons' defense, they used John Ross and later Aaron Dobson. Perhaps JJ Nelson had become expendable with Ross being drafted. I posted my thoughts on Twitter. A head of a startup sports network, GGSN, tweeted that "sources" he'd spoken with had said JJ Nelson was the guy, and that Bills were trading their acquired Ragland pick for him. This opened a storm of scoffs from pundits saying this was a conditional pick, and couldn't be used as such. That's a story for a different day. I also direct messaged Chris Brown, lead reporter, who said Nelson was on his list of possible acquisitions in a Ragland trade, but that he hadn't heard anything. The jet stayed in PHX about 24 hours. The flight plan was scheduled for PHX to KC, but not to BUF, so I assumed a Cardinals player is being dropped off in KC, and that the Bills are spending the night in Kansas City. An hour later, I get another FlightAware email saying they'll proceed to BUF for a 9:35 arrival. FlightAware sends me another email saying the Bills' flight home was delayed in KC, and won't be taking off until 8:35, arriving back in BUF at 11:35. We'll find out soon, but my money will be on the speed WR, JJ Nelson. He received almost zero snaps, he's the speed we lost by trading Sammy and releasing Listenbee and waiving Rashad Ross. WR is the Cardinals ' biggest glut. He's in Ariens' doghouse, and the PHX paper says he's on the bubble. Second would be Aaron Dobson, likely the Cards' sixth receiver, and still a 4.4 guy (JJ is 4.28). A distant third would be QB, but I don't want to go there. ...Astro. TCBIlls_Astro

Bills are in Phoenix right now. They stopped in KC (either to make the deal for Ragland or to drop off Ragland). Cardinals have Palmer, Stanton, Gabbert, and Trevor Knight at QB

I agree FULLY. Simulating a Bills' Bottom 8 finish and a Chiefs' Top 8 finish with the current 200-player DraftTek Big Board: RD1---Mike McGlinchey OT or Malik Jefferson OLB or Josh Rosen QB or Minkah Fitzpatrick S/CB RD1---Marcus Allen S or Mason Rudolph QB or Lamar Jackson QB or Dante Booker OLB RD2#37---Deon Cain WR or Kendall Joseph OLB or Da'Ron Payne DT or Ronnie Harrison S or Equanimeous St Brown WR RD2#40---Deon Cain WR or Kendall Joseph OLB or Da'Ron Payne DT or Ronnie Harrison S or Equanimeous St Brown WR RD3---K.C. McDermott OT or Auden Tate / Jaylen Smith WR or Mike Gesicki TE or Zachary Crabtree OT RD3----K.C. McDermott OT or Auden Tate / Jaylen Smith WR or Mike Gesicki TE or Zachary Crabtree OT

Here's the Bills' problem with the 2018 QBs. Also a good reason not to tank: You've described Sam Darnold. We'd have to suck worse than the Jets, or use 2-3 picks to get him away from the Jets. Disadvantage: He's 6'3, tied for shortest of the Top 4 (Darnold, Allen, Rosen, Rudolph). He's also a USC QB, and virtually none of the USC QBs have amounted to anything recently. You haven't described Josh Allen. Of my Top 10, the 6'5" Allen is Second-Worst in completion percentage against AP-ranked teams. You'll get an athlete = Tyrod, with better arm strength, and better ability to fit the ball into tight windows, but inconsistent decision-making and late throws a la Tyrod. You might think you're describing Josh Rosen, but he's also only 6'3", and even worse, he's 210. He and Lamar Jackson are the lightweights in my Top 10. Rosen's arm strength has been described as " uneven to marginal", and he's tied for the slowest QB in my Top 20. That's forty-time, and the fat that he's slow-footed, to boot. This leads him to panic too soon. My best guess at this point is that if they're unsure about Darnold, they're looking at Mason Rudolph, who has the most deep-ball yards (helpful to take the top off a defense if they're crowding the box), and he's 6'4 235, so that's in his favor. His speed is average for the top 6 QBs (4.74 forty). He is the best sideline timing thrower among the Day 1-2 QBs this class, important in the WCO horizontal game. He had 63.3% completions last year against AP-ranked teams. If the Bills take him, they can stay put in RD1 for sure. My biggest question mark about Rudolph can be fixed: He's put up his numbers with really good WRs. IF the Bills take Rudolph first, they'll take a great WR second. If Mason Rudolph has the best WRs, Lamar Jackson had the worst help. He's made highlight-reel plays, Heisman caliber, with Tyrodesque run ability, with Tyrodesque ability to throw on the run. He, Browning, and Trace McSorley are the lightest in my Top 20. Lamar also needs the most work in my top 8. Some of it is coachable (lower body mechanics, trust your line and don't leave pocket early) and some is not.

I'm submitting Positional Needs for next week's mock draft on DraftTek. Here's what I have. The P1 would likely come in RD1; you can only have one P1 per team. The P2's would be drafted in best-player-available order in RD 1-3. The DraftTek computer won't consummate trades, and won't over-reach for a player. QB--- up to P1---Batted balls alone make me think QB must be 6'4" (Josh Allen, Mason Rudolph). OT--- up to P2---Mills' opponent blocked 3 balls. Dawkins would take his place, but Cordy seems vulnerable to injury. OG--- up to P3---Incognito is age 34 and has had 2-3 penalties in preseason. Can we stop thinking Ducasse is an option? Is he a ploy to light a fire under Miller's butt? OC--- down to P4---Wood signed for 2 more years, Groy his successor, could be one of the Guards going forward which opens up hole at OC. TE--- up to P2. Clay targeted 7 times by Bills QBs, caught 4 of them for 47 yds. Clay isn't who we thought he was (530 yards per year and 7 TDs as a Bill) as the NFL's seventh highest paid TE), and O'Leary has more yardage. WR--- up to P2. Although Reilly outshone Shorts, he cost the Bills the game at the end. We know our starters; it's the 4-5 behind those three that need fortification. RB---holds at P6. McCoy just needs better blocking, Jon Williams, and Tolbert (first down on 3rd and 1 play and team's only TD), plus either Taiwan or Banyard. We're set. DT--- dn to P6. Impressed with Worthy, Marquavius Lewis, and Deandre Coleman at DT. Even Adolphus (who filled in for Dareus). If Dareus is traded (haven't heard anything), this goes to P2. DE--- dn to P4. Hughes and Shaq will be a terror, especially with level of play Shaq and DTs provide. Yarbrough continues to terrorize QBs. Even Seau and Ryan Davis showed up. LB--- remains P2. Preston Brown looked great (7 total tackles) but Vallejo's injury, erratic play from Milano, lack of sideline to sideline speed indicate an earlier pick than RD5. CB--- remains P4. Very sound play from White and fast learner EJ Gaines, plus Shareece Wright, plus the scheme, make this less of a need. S ---remains P2. Hyde's great. Poyer's above average. Likely need Anderson, Rambo, or Gary to distinguish themselves before the cut to 53, or we'll be taking someone else's cut. ---Please give me your thoughts. --Astro.

All of the above, but I think Andre Holmes, as well. Is he expendable for a RD3? If Ryan Davis plays (injury/concussion issues), same thing. Yarbrough was such a late bloomer, it'll be fun to see if he has what it takes, especially against the Vikes. Zimmer is 12-1 in preseason games over the last 3 years, so watchiing individual players is more important than the win.