Gabe Northern

People still think the Bills were seriously interested in Mike Shanahan? Wow. Didn't realize Russ Brandon's staged PR trip out to Denver was so successful. http://www.ksdk.com/news/watercooler/story...85&catid=71

I agree that the most pessimistic fan has to be pleasantly surprised, as I consider myself among the most pessimistic fans when it comes to our defense. however, as we know, dominating our offense in Pittsford does not translate to success. My concerns were (1) NT and (2) no OLB on the roster. Troup looks good now, but can he hold up? What about Williams ability to take on C and a G? At OLB, Torbor/Maybin needs to be a solid platoon, but the real story may be Chris Ellis. I thought he was a definite cut. If he actually starts and plays well there, that changes quite a bit. We'll see about Kelsay when he gets some reps.

Not really. The problem you have is failing to account for Crabtree at 10. The increase of 2.8% was over a deal he signed October 7. Alualu's agent recognized Crabtree's deal was rich and didn't demand the customary year/year raise. The midpoint between McClain and Alualu is $20.25 million guaranteed. A 19% increase on Raji is $21.42 million guaranteed. No difference. In total value, the midpoint is $34 million guaranteed. A 19% increase on Raji is $33.9 million. Even closer. Either the Bills are refusing to pay the customary annual increase or Spiller's agent is making unreasonable demands. I'll let other posters decide which is the case.

If this were true, the Bills would have been relived to hear he was looking for housing in WNY and likely to come back. Instead, they reacted to the news by informing him that he was no longer in their plans. This is the issue people need to come to terms with. When it seemed like he was going to retire, the word out of OBD was "take as much time as you need. We'd love to have you." As soon as it seemed like he was coming back, it was Nix on the phone telling him to stay the hell away.

This assumes that you just sit back with your thumb in your butt wondering whether he's going to play again. If you want to avoid the worst case scenario -- him walking away with no compensation -- you have to be proactive. 90% of Schobel's discontent had to do with losing. You call his agent about shipping him to a contender. You work the phones with various teams, gauging interest. You run certain teams by the agent. Eventually you find a situation that works for him where the team is willing to send a 4th or 5th rounder. They had a window from early January to the draft in April to pull this off.

Or used that $8 million to sign an RFA to an offer sheet.

According to JW's reporting, it went down like this: Nix called Schobel, told him the Bills were going in a different direction. Schobel then said something to the effect of "what if I report now," to which Nix replied "you'd be released." The Bills decided it didn't make sense to pay someone $8 million to spend one year at a new position. Perfectly reasonable. But by announcing it to the world BEFORE they made any effort to trade him, they lost any leverage they may have had.

Exactly right. The team had no choice but to release him at this point. The outstanding questions are: 1.) Why did it take them until now to make the decision they didn't want him on the team? 2.) What motivated the decision to move on? Why weren't those same motivations present in January when they could have set the wheels in motion and potentially gotten something for him? The point here is that the team seemed to decide to cut ties with Schobel exactly at the same time as he seemed most likely to come back. That's bizarre.

Hope those posters on the other thread thinking our "new regime" was going to get something for him learned a valuable lesson. As I wrote, he was either going to retire to get released. He held all of the cards. Avoiding this situation would have required forethought and lots of working of the phones starting in January.

That's not true. He was not paid the $2 million in March because he did not take his physical.

It's not unreasonable to think there's a correlation between the Spiller negotiations and the decision to cut ties with Schobel. Ralph is going to have to come up with $20 million in guarantees and about $7 million per year to pay Spiller. Saving $8 million could go a long way to end the impasse. Moreover, one could make the argument that they never intended to pay Schobel the $8 million and only made the decision public once he started looking for housing in WNY. It did seem strange that this was decided just as he seemed likely to play for the first time since January and was told he'd be released if showed up at St John Fisher (per JW).

A team looking for him to get in a 3 point stance on third down and get the QB is not going to be all torn up about him missing time in their system. He'd miss maybe one paycheck. Probably not even that.

I get the "too old; too highly paid" arguments. Fair enough. Just wouldn't hang your hat on the "never played 3-4" or "would be 2 weeks late to camp if traded in March" arguments 'cause they ain't too compelling.

Schobel holds the cards here. Hopefully he stays retired. Good for Nix that he's not going to make it easy on him. But, at the end of the day, Schobel can show up and force us to release him or pay him what he's due.

No we're spilitting hairs. He's due the balance of the $6 million as termination pay if he's on the Week 1 roster. So he either retires or is released before week 1.

The team didn't say "report tomorrow or be released." As JW reports, they told him he didn't have the option of reporting! This spin about Nix being a non-nonsense guy is ridiculous. Someone made the decision that they didn't want to pay the $8 million contract (a reasonable decision) and they moved on. Now there's no way out other than hoping he stays retired, or cutting him if he doesn't. My argument -- which many people on this board reasonably object to as unreasonable (others not so reasonably) -- is that we should have identified Schobel being released and playing somewhere else in 2010 as a worst case scenario and been more active in the offseason in an effort to move him. Now we're in the untenable position of pretending he'll be traded when everyone knows that's impossible.

Yep. My argument is directed at those who think he'll be traded. Nonsense.

I agree that there is no market RIGHT NOW. My argument concerns whether a deal could have been done in Jan-April 22 time horizon. Maybe a deal couldn't be done because of age/money. But your other points highlighted above don't make sense. He doesn't HAVE to be traded to a 3-4 team. Indeed, I would suspect only 4-3 teams would have been interested. So this is a reason he doesn't fit with the Bills, not why he couldn't be dealt. And the "missed at least a week, if not 2" is a reason why he can't be traded NOW. What's that got to do with whether he could have been dealt in, say, February?

John -- love your work and depend on you for much of my info about the team. You are correct. But I am suggesting that if Schobel plays hardball and reports the team has no choice but to release him or pay the $8 million. If Schobel reports, the choices are (a) fulfill your contractual obligation with $2 M roster bonus after physical, and $6 M base salary; (b) transfer contractual obligations to another team via trade; or © relive yourself of contractual obligations by releasing him. If Schobel decides to play football in 2010 and you believe that it will be impossible to trade a 32 year old due $8 M, you either believe (a) or © will occur.

As I wrote, 90% of Schobel's gripes had been with the sorry state of the Bills. You talk to him about where he might be interested in playing, you speak to those teams, you get the ball-rolling. You get him comfortable playing for another year, you get the team thinking Schobel's open to playing for a number of teams and that 6th rounder won't cut it, etc. This is how these deals are done. Lots of phone conversations between the team, the agent, other teams, etc. Or you can just stand around with your fly down with no commitment into August and decide out of the blue to cut the guy and then backtrack and claim you're going to trade him if he doesn't retire.

If the Bills don't release him, they will have to pay that $8 million salary,

I disagree. 90% of his discontent was with the losing. I think even at 32, he could have been shipped somewhere for a conditional pick.

Yes, the contract doesn't change but the circumstances do. $8 million (all-in) for a 10-sack guy going to a contender in March? Very doable. In August after plans have been made and everyone knows he can be had cheaper in a few days time? No way.

There is a contract. It obligates the team to pay Schobel a fixed amount in exchange for his services. Once that contract is terminated, Schobel becomes a free agent. The contract can be reworked with the Bills, but as soon as the current contract is no longer binding, Schobel could instead just sign directly with whomever he wants. So the only way to get compensation in a trade is if the trading partner accepts the existing contract.

Timing is everything. Could they have trade him coming off of a 10 sack season before the draft? Bit different than trading him after it's been made clear he's going to get cut anyway. A better run organization would have figure out a way to get something for him by trading him to a contender/Houston when such a move was possible.