billsfan1959

IMHO, Allen has had more of an MVP year this year than last. He has played behind an offensive line that has managed to have their top 5 players together in just 3 of 15 games this season, and their top 4 in just 5 of 15 games. The OL has been an absolute s*** show of musical chairs and subpar to awful performances. In spite of that and the fact this team has literally no running game to speak of, Allen is still 7th in passing yards, 3rd in TD passes, 3rd in fewest INTs, 4th in fewest sacks, 2nd in total yards, and 2nd in total TDs. And he now seems to be on a mission. Over the last 3 games, against 3 of the better defenses in the NFL, Allen has 1,029 total yds, 9 TDs, and 2 INTs. If he keeps playing the way he has played since halftime of the Tampa Bay game, the only team that could stop the Bills from putting up 30-40 points per game - is the Bills.

Right, but you also continue to say things like McDermott "wanted 20-17 games," when, in reality, it was the best he could hope for. You wanted to label McDermott as conservative when he simply played to the team's strengths, the same as he does now - such as going for it on 4th down 4 times against the ****Pats on Sunday.

In Allen's 1st year, nobody had confidence in that offense, which, arguably had the worst collection of talent along the offensive line and receiving positions in the entire NFL - and historically bad.

Actually, I never once even implied that you said "Allen sucks." I even stated that I had no problems saying the offensive efficiency numbers or statistics from this year might not be as good as last year at this point. My issues were simply with how you went about your statistical analyses and your conclusions that you tried to pass off as facts based on "statistics." Your reaction was to simply dig your heels in and double down on your flawed analyses. And you have made it about Allen, from your first post to your last. Your quotes: "Conclusions? Josh is just not as sharp as he was last year." "Josh this year is worse than Josh last year when including all of the games. Fact." Those are your own words.

You have had some pretty knowledgeable posters in this thread point out the flaws in your conclusions based on "statistics." You haven't bothered to respond to most of those points because it is apparent you are unable to do so. At this point, it is clear you are interested in nothing more than manipulating numbers to pass off your opinions as "facts."

Ummm. you might want to look up the meaning of projection. It actually might have this as an example.

You are the one that predicted that not only would the Bills lose to the Jets, but that the Bills would get blown out - and that the Bills might not win another game this year. So, I am wondering how you can believe that, and also believe the Bills should beat the Patriots? Which is it?

This might be one of your worst takes ever...and there is a lot of competition from almost every other post you have ever written

It is unreasonable. Actually, it is bordering on the insane...

I'm guessing even few unreasonable people would have this take...he's in his own special little world

The man has a .600 winning % with the Bills, .698 winning % over the last three years, three playoff appearances in the previous four seasons and you think he should be on the hot seat after this year?

Maybe, just maybe, the problems along the offensive line have something to do with the inconsistency in the offensive performance? I have said this in other posts and I will say it again: There have only been 4 games out of 11 where the top 4 linemen played together (and only 2 games in which the top 5 linemen played together). Here are some numbers comparing those 4 games with the other 7 games: Team Total Points PPG 1st Downs PG Tot YPG Pass YPG Rush YPG 4 Games w/top 4 Oline 154 38.5 25 448 312.7 135.3 Other 7 Games 172 24.5 21.8 355.7 247.1 108.6 Allen Comp Att Cmp% Yds Yds PG TDs TD% INTs INT% 4 Games w/top 4 Oline 91 131 69.5 1282 320.5 10 7.6 3 2.4 Other 7 Games 183 279 65.6 1789 255.6 15 5.4 7 2.6 I'm not saying the problems along the offensive line this year are the only reasons for the offensive inconsistencies or, that having the top 4 together was the only reason the offense performed better in those games. However, if you watch the games, those in which the best Olinemen were playing, and in the positions they should be playing, the offense just looked better. Brown is back and Feliciano is now practicing. If Dawkins, Feliciano, Morse, Williams, and Brown can stay healthy and play together the rest of the year, then I think the offensive will play better. It is still going to be tough offensively because 4 of their last 6 games will be against top 8 defenses.

1) I am not cherry picking anything. To me, it is pointless to compare seasons because the variables that go into the numbers are so different. You wanted to compare seasons. So, I am saying you cannot compare 11 games this year with 16 last year. It tells you nothing. Saying where Allen stands after 11 games this year as opposed to after 11 games last year doesn't really tell you much either; however, it is more reasonable if that is the route you want to go. 2) As far as efficiency goes, this is not a matter of semantics. We are talking about two separate issues. The first is a numbers issue. Those are a statistical measurement in offensive efficiency. They tell us only whether or not offensive numbers are better or worse than a comparison sample. The second is drawing conclusions from those numbers. If you were simply trying to say in your post is that offensive numbers from a statistical perspective are down, then I wouldn't have a problem with that. However, you went on to say, "A lot of this is Josh...Conclusions? ...he is just not as sharp as he was last year." That is an opinion, not a legitimate conclusion from the statistics. That is where I have the problem. Allen could be absolutely as sharp, or even moreso, than last year, he just might not be putting up similar or better numbers because of other reasons. In other words, he could actually be a better QB than he was last year and not have better "numbers."

Statistics don't scare me at all. I deal with them all the time. For the sake of argument, let's say that the numbers indicate offensive efficiency and production are down from the first 11 games of last year. What you can say from those numbers is exactly that: offensive efficiency and production are down from the first 11 games of last year. What you cannot say is that the reason for that is Josh "is across the board less efficient and more TO prone compared to last season." As an aside, betweeen INTs and lost fumbles, Allen has less turnovers than in the first eleven games last year. But back to my point. Allen may actually be more efficient and a better QB from the perspective of what is going on around him on the field. You know, things like the play of everyone else on the field around him, situational factors, etc. Or, he may not be. Those numbers do not actually tell us. Generalizing conclusions based on numbers alone is where statistics become lies. BTW, the reason you do not compare a full season to 11 games is because the 11 games an incomplete sample size for comparison purposes. Even then, numbers to numbers comparisons do not actually tell you whether or not an individual player was better or worse than he was in another season. I'd gladly pay it if you promise to use the money to take a class on how to understand and use statistics.

They are facts from a numbers perspective only. They do absolutely nothing in regard to saying whether or not Allen is less or more efficient this year without looking at all the variables that contributed to those statistics.

Could you please point out for us where it is exactly, in this entire post, where you detail how Allen's play is the direct cause of the decreased efficiency of the offense from your "statistical perspective." You know, as opposed to any decreased efficiency possibly being caused by other factors. Please point out the specifics, or feel free to add them now. And remember, correlation does not imply causation. Or, just continue to give your opinion as if it is fact, and then support it with statistics that don't actually prove your conclusions

Right. Comparing statistics from one season to another season (much less a season with 6 games left to a previous complete season) without any underlying analyses of factors that contributed to the play in either season is pointless. Drawing conclusions such as Allen "is not as sharp as last year" from statistics only is ridiculous. This might sound shocking to the OP; however, maybe a bit of analyses of the underlying variables migh be helpful in understanding the "statistics." Take, for instance, the top 5 offensive linemen have played together in only 2 games and the top 4 linemen in only 4 games - out of 11 total games this year, and in most games, the offensive line has been a complete s*** show of musical chairs and awful play. How does that compare to the offensive line play last year? Or, what are the differences in the way defenses are playing the Bills this year as opposed to last year. Etc., etc., etc. Instead, we are constantly bombarded with lazy analyses and unfounded conclusions...

No thanks. I think my head would explode if I had to review all of your threads at one time. I will admit that they are generally entertaining though, in a neurotic town crier kind of way...

A more daunting task would be to find when you were right...

He's in a constant state of worry. Almost every thread he has ever started is some variation of "I'm scared of....," "I'm worried about....," or "I'm concerned about..." Most of the remainder of the threads he has started are some variation of "I'm angry about...." Sometimes he tries to throw us off by creating a thread where he is concerned/scared/worried and angry....

Fixed it for you

1. IMO, the biggest issue for this team has been the constant shuffling of the Oline because of the non-availability of players. You do realize our best 5 linemen Dawson, Feliciano, Morse, Williams, and Brown have played together twice? Or that the top 4 linemen, Dawson, Morse, Williams, and Brown have only played together 4 times? Out of 11 games? Like most teams, they do not have the depth of talent to continually overcome the loss of starters on the Oline and it has shown. 2. A loss on Monday night could happen for any number of reasons and it could say any number of things about the team: Maybe they are not as good as we think they should be, maybe they lose because of turnovers, maybe they lose because of a critical bad call or two, etc. The point is, Based on what I know about this team and what I know about the individual people that make up this team and coaching staff, my first reactions wouldn't be to accuse them of playing scared, being arrogant, not caring, having no desire to win, being soft, having no comittment, having no character, etc., etc., etc. But hey, you be you, and react like you usually do when you don't get what you want with this team...

I'll never understand people like you who, because the outcome of a game doesn't turn out the way you want, or the players don't execute plays successfully, or if the team simply doesn't play well (all of which hinge on so many variables), you go straight to questioning their character, commitment, toughness, motivation, desire to win, etc., etc., etc.... It is like you have no ability whatsoever to accurately evalute human behavior... ...or football games.