billsfan1959

Ah, the cloud to every silver lining....

No, he is not compelled to be there and, yes, he probably will come into camp ready to play. However, he is on a new team and it probably would have been a good idea to show up and interact with his new teammates. In the end, it probably won’t make a difference. But still...

He should be on a Wall of Shame for that 4th down slide.... In all fairness, that's not the only reason...

I am not disputing the fact that the O-line was worse without Richie; however, the offense was not very good in 2017 while he was here. There were a number of factors as to why the offense was so bad after Richie left. To think they would have been appreciably better with Richie is not an objective evaluation of the offense as a whole, IMO. Richie's play had diminished when he left and, to blame Beane for the circumstances under which Richie left is a bit unfair.

Pretty superficial analysis of the offensive problems post-Richie...

His issue has been health, not ability

I do a lot of consulting work with the Army JAG Corps and have been to Ft. Wainwright a number of times. There are probably around 5000 soldiers at the base at any given time and I'm sure there will be some Bills fans. He should be able to reach out to find some fans through his wife if she is assigned there. As an aside, I enjoyed my trips there and took my wife with me several times. There is actually some pretty good food in Fairbanks unless you are looking for plate of greens. During the summer solstice, Fairbanks holds the Festival of the Midnight Sun, which brings in about 30,000 people; in the winter the northern lights can be seen, Chena Hot Springs is a cool place to get away and relax, and there is great hiking with some spectacular views at Denali National Park. I'll reach out to some friends to see if they know anyone at Wainwright. Isn't @MAJBobbyin the Army?

The inaccuracy issue has been debated ad nauseum and there are differing theories on the topic. I am not going to rehash them here. What I would say is that his completion percentages in college and his 1st year in the NFL are statistical facts. WHY they were low and WHAT they mean are completely subjective - and as opinion based as the "IT factor" you mentioned. So, the stats, in and of themselves have no predictive ability regarding whether or not Allen will be a successful NFL QB. There are so many variables involved in the analysis of accuracy, some of them correctable and some of them not. Which variables apply to Allen is open to debate, but, again, completely subjective.

I don't think the vast majority of Bills fans assume it's a "shoe-in" that he will correct his issues. Nor is it, as you say, a shoe-in that the opposite is the case. In the final game against Miami, he did many of those things his detractors continually talk about him needing to do: took the higher percentage short route over the lower percentage deep throws (targets under 10 yds on 20 of his 26 attempts), was accurate on the vast majority of those throws, a 65% completion rate, 3 TDs, and a 114 rating. I find it interesting that you want to add caveats to that game explaining why factors other than his play might be responsible for the success he had - yet, you offered no such explanations for games in which he wasn't as successful as would have liked to have seen. Throughout your post you diminish what he did in week 17 and act as if it was a complete anomaly that should somehow be discarded, or have an asterisk placed next to it - and feel the need to subtract that game to talk about his play. The fact is, week 17 happened and Allen played well. When evaluating his season, you look at ALL the games. You don't remove the ones that don't help your argument. Some looked at week 17 as you do. Most fans, IMO, saw it as the final game of a continual improvement over the final six weeks of the season - and as evidence that he just might have what it takes to become the next franchise QB of the Bills. It's not called a "shoe-in," it's called hopeful - and it is based on an objective evaluation of Allen's play over the last six games of last year and the off season improvements around him.

But were any wearing helmets like this?

Lighten up Francis...

Based on the fact that they have no predictive value. Provide me with one stat that has any predictive value as to what Allen may do this year or next year.

The analytics of his stats in college and his first year in the NFL are just that: statistics relevant to what he did in those circumstances. It has absolutely no predictive value in regard to how he will be this year or beyond.

The poster I was responding to stated Roman did not want to work with Taylor and that Jackson was of a similar skill set. My response was that it was possible that he wasn't happy in getting Taylor; however, on the other hand, he was fully aware of what he was getting in Jackson when he accepted the OC position (as he was on the staff last year). So, he clearly is comfortable enough working with a QB such as Jackson - and he has done a great job with similar QBs. Smith did blossom under Reid; however, even though Smith averaged just under 200 YPG, he was still pretty productive under Roman: 64% completion, 30 TDs, 10 INTs, and 19-5-1 as a starter. I mentioned him because he was the only example of a "traditional" pocket passer Roman worked with, and he did pretty well with him.

It wouldn't surprise me if Roman was not terribly happy having to work with Taylor after having to work with Kaepernick. However, he did, in fact, accept the Raven's OC job knowing he would have to work with Jackson. So, maybe he is comfortable with that type of QB - but, would actually prefer a traditional pocket QB (he did really well with Alex Smith the one year he had him)? I don't know. I personally like Roman as an OC, I would love to see what he could do with a QB who actually has top tier talent.

I'm not sure anyone anticipated the level of athleticism displayed by Allen. In terms of Jackson, I do think he has more deficiencies in the passing game than Allen; however, he is not without some ability - particularly when he is using his athletic ability to create opportunities. so, in that sense, yes, I do think his athleticism, when used properly, can overcome some of those deficiencies. I think if anyone can bring out the best in Jackson's skill set, it will be Roman.

Good take. People forget how successful Roman has been with similar QBs. I would not be surprised at all to see Jackson have a good season.

Given Shady's past, he might need a chaperone for his prom date...

I think it is too early to tell either way. While he didn't carry the Ravens to the playoffs and he played, by far, the weakest defenses (DVOA) of all the 2018 QBs, he didn't do anything to lose the games either. I think he has the most deficiencies in the passing game of the 2018 QBs; however, he is a tremendous athlete. I do not believe he will be a long time starter in this league; but, I do not think he will be a complete bust either. You never know, though. Again, it is too early to tell..

Not if they actually watched both of them play...

It appears having all of your draft picks signed at this point is the exception rather than the rule. It is interesting (as talked about in the article quoted previously in this thread) that 25 third round picks are still unsigned. By far, the most of any round.

What odds are those? Serious question. What data can you provide that sheds any light at all on whether or not Allen will be successful?

I became a fan because it was my father's team. First game I ever attended was against the Raiders in 1968. The Bills lost 48-6; however, I was a nine year old kid attending my first game and sharing one of the few good times I remember with my father. I have been a diehard fan ever since. My son became a fan through me and, even though he hasn't had much to cheer about in his time as a fan (he wasn't old enough to appreciate the Super Bowl run), we have shared a lot of wonderful memories through our love of the Bills. I'm not sure we really have a choice in which sports teams we come to love...it just happens. In our case, I just tell my son to blame his grandfather .

Another good article by Cover 1...