billsfan1959

You're right that a number of the losses were against QBs who also threw for 300. I broke out the losses to show that; however, I still think a loss is a loss, even against another 300 yard performance. What did surprise me was the W/L record of 300 yard performances with less than 38 Attempts - 32-2 with the only 2 losses coming against other 300 yard passers. I feel like those 300 yard performances (38 or less attempts) are more indicative of dominating offensive performances based on completion %, Y/A, YAC/A, and record. My overall point was that I think Allen played at that level in 4 or 5 games this year and just didn't have enough attempts (or help from his receivers in YAC) to do it. Which is encouraging to me.

I'm pretty sure, "It's not cool," is not the legal standard here.....

You simply posted Allen's total yards and total TDs against Jones' without any context. Quit being intellectually dishonest.

I have attached an excel spread sheet of all 300 yard games you might find interesting 2019 300 yd passing games.xlsx

You know, I agree with you that he should have thrown more in that game. I think Allen has improved greatly since last year and I think he has tremendous potential to reach the next level. While I am not as enamored with the 300 yard standard as you are, I agree he hasn't really had that statistical breakout game and this is one of the games this year where I believe he could have (more on that in a little bit). However, I do not believe it is as simple as the coaches holding him back - I think it is much more complex than that.. I went back and did some number crunching on the 300 yard games this year. @Hapless Bills Fan might be interested in this as well as he has had some discussions on the topic with you as well. While there are 256 actual games per year, I will use 512 games for QB performances based on 32 teams x 16 games. This year, there have been 124 300-yard performances - or 24% of games. 300 yard games with less than 30 attempts are rare. There were only 9 (1.7% of all games), with an average completion percentage of 76% and average Y/A of 12.45. There were 25 (4.9% of all games) 300 yard games with 30-35 attempts. They had an average completion percentage of 74% and average Y/A of 10.34. So, only 27% of all 300 games (6.6% of total games) occur with 35 or less attempts. Of those, only 2 games had a completion % les than 64, and none had a Y/A less than 8.6 (with all but 2 of the 34 between 9-14 Y/A). Interestingly, 300 yard passers with 35 or less attempts were 32-2. 300 yard games with 36-40 Attempts accounted for 20% of 300 yrd games (4.8% of all games) and had an average completion percentage of 68% and average Y/A of 8.62. So, with 40 or less attempts, a QB really has to have a minimum completion % in the low to mid 60s, and a Y/A exceeding 7 (the minimum Y/A of any 300 yard game with 40 or less attempts was 7.5). I won't get into the rest of what the analyses showed. I will say that the winning percentage steadily decreases after 38-40 attempts: 38-2 with 37 or less attempts and 26-54 with 38 or more attempts. Now to Allen. In general Allen leads the league in the total percentage of plays (15.7%) in which he threw the ball away, spiked it, had a pass dropped, or had a pass tipped/ batted (6% more than any of the "top QBs). He is 5th in intended air yards per att and 32nd in YAC/A (he throws deeper passes than most QBs and gets less YAC from his receivers than most QBs). He is also 2nd in the NFL in percentage of pass attempts in which he is blitzed at 43.6% (a number which soared over the last three games), and is tied, when blitzed, for the smallest amount of time between snap and the throw/when the pocket collapses at 2.3 seconds. He also has missed on a number of throws he should have made. He also plays on a team with a coaching staff that tends to play more conservatively with a lead. All of that adds up to fewer chances for Allen to have that "breakout" 300 yard game. However, there were five games this year where I believe Allen could have had that breakout game. The first was the Giants game, in which he went 19-30 for 253, 63.3%, and 8.43 Y/A. His YAC/A for that game was 2.9. The average for 300 yard games with 30 or less attempts was 6.43. Let's say he got only 4.6 YAC/A - that would have given him 302 yards. The other 4 games were the two Miami games, the Washington game, and the Dallas game. He had an average completion percentage of 68%, an average of 8.24 Y/A, and an average YAC/A of 4. However, he only threw an average of 25 passes per game. It is reasonable to believe he would have come close to 300 yards in some of those games (particularly the Washington and Dallas games) with 35-37 attempts.

This is why nobody can take you seriously. You continually misrepresent things to support your narrative. Jones had a good day against Washington. He completed 66% (28-42) of his passes for 352 yards for 5 TDs. It was a great day for him and I won't down play it. However, you insinuated Allen's play against the same team was bad by comparing total yards and TDs. You failed to mention Allen had a 70% completion rate in that game (vs 66% for Jones), an 8.1 Y/A (vs 8.4 for Jones), and 1 TD. You also forgot to mention that Allen only threw the ball 20 times. 3 of Jones' TDs also came inside the 10 yard line. In the Buffalo game, Allen was inside the Washington 10 yard line 3 times (2 TDs and 1 FG) and all but two plays went to the running backs. Of the two plays he threw the ball, one was complete to the one yard line, which Gore then ran in. Allen threw the ball very well in that game - it was just one of the more conservatively called games of the season.

Because that is what they feel is best for their team. Not sure why you would have a difficult time arriving at that conclusion on your own. It does not mean the Bills' coaching staff feels it would be best for their team. It is possible for differing philosophies to exist at the same time, and for both of them to be an acceptable approach.

Seriously - he is almost delusional at this point...

Allen got hurt on the 1st play of the fourth quarter, so, Barkley played, essentially, the entire fourth quarter and came in after Allen had driven the team to NE's 45 yard line. In the 3rd quarter, Allen was: 8 - 12 (67%), 93 yards (7.75 YPA), 1 INT, 1 rushing TD. In the 4th quarter, Barkley was: 9 - 16 (56%), 127 yards (7.9 YPA), 1 INT, 0 TD. So, the Bills offense was moving pretty good under Allen in the second half, including a score. Barkley actually performed worse in the fourth quarter than Allen did in the 3rd quarter. The fact that you used Barkley as an example of a consistent accurate QB is a joke - as is your characterization of the pass to Jones as one that was accurate and should have been caught: Yeah, such a model of an "accurate" pass. The same type of pass you have crucified Allen for. Your bias is so transparent. You truly have little credibility when it comes to Allen.

Yeah, I do get the concerns that many have and I agree with the premise that "if they do not play, they cannot get injured." However, I also am not a fan of fear based philosophies.

Like I said, I understand your sentiment. However, I am just not as fearful about injuries as you. Just a different perspective. I also don't think most of the starters will play a complete game.

And my point was, inside the red zone - and particularly inside the 10 yard line - Allen has been tremendous this year. He missed a couple throws that EVERY QB misses now and then. To say you don't care about other QBs and say it isn't a different standard is a ridiculous. You can't have a standard at all if you don't look at all QBs. The truth is, by every measurable standard of QB play in the redzone, Allen has exceeded the standard and what should be expected. There are a number of things in that game that could have resulted in a win if they had gone differently. To focus on just those two throws is silly.

I understand the sentiment; however, any of those players could go down with an injury in the first few plays of their first playoff game. They are a young core and, after the last 3 weeks, it would be nice to get a little consistency back on offense heading into the playoffs.

I might be in the minority; however, I think it is the right move.

Yep, I like looking at numbers . He does need to take another step and I believe the vast majority of Bills' fans acknowledge that. However, I also believe that if you go below the surface when looking at the numbers, and do some real analyses, you will find a lot to be encouraged about in regard to Allen's potential to take that next step. Will he? I don't know. Can he? I absolutely believe he can.

Yes, Allen missed an open receiver in the end zone. It happens. He also happens to have a 67% completion percentage inside the 10 and is the top rated passer in the NFL inside the 10 yard line. EVERY QB misses "open" receivers now and then in the end zone. Why Allen is held to a different standard is beyond me.

Love having Allen as the QB of my team and I am very excited about where this team is headed! Merry Christmas to all!!!! Go Bills!

Good post. This idea that you can take any QB and place him in any other situation and predict the results is silly. As you say, every individual is unique and how that uniqueness affects all the other variables is different for each one.

A little disingenuous and a bit simplistic. There are a number of variables that go into completion %. The number of dropped passes is one. Even that is not as simple as the number alone. Allen leads the league in percentage of dropped passes at 7.2%. Compared to some of the "top QBs": Mahomes 5% Watson 4.6% Rogers 4.3% Cousins 3.8% Winston 3.8% Jackson 3.6% Wilson 3.3% Brees 3.3% Tipped/batted passes, throw aways, spikes and, pressure are some other (not all) factors. Allen happens to be near the top of the league in all of those. Total percentage of plays in which Allen threw the ball away, spiked it, had a pass dropped, or had a pass tipped/ batted is 15.7% (leads the league) Again compared to some of the "top QBs": Mahomes 10% Watson 9% Rogers 10.3% Cousins 10.1% Winston 9.3% Jackson 9.7% Wilson 9.2% Brees 7.8% That's an average of 9.4% - or - a 6.3% difference than Allen. Using your argument, if allen had 6.3 % less passes dropped, thrown away, spiked, or tipped/batted his completion % would be 65% or 14th in the NFL. Or using the "league avg" (10.7%) as you did, Allen has 5% more, and 5% less passes dropped, thrown away, spiked, or tipped/batted would leave his his completion % at 64% or 18th in the NFL. Let's add in pressure via blitz just for the heck of it. Allen is also 2nd in the NFL in percentage of pass attempts in which he is blitzed at 43.6% (a number which soared over the last three games). He is also tied, when blitzed, for the smallest amount of time between snap and the throw/when the pocket collapses at 2.3 seconds. Allen has a lot of room for improvement; however, let's not be simplistic in our evaluations by saying his "inaccuracy" is the primary reason for his lower completion %.

Do you mean the same Barkley that, for a career, has a 59% completion rate, 10 TDs, 19 INTs, and a QB rating of 67? Do you mean the same Barkley that was 9 - 16 (56%) for 127 yds, 0 TDs, 1 INT (in the red zone), and a 54 QB rating in the 1st NE game this year? You need to say no more. This says everything we need to know.

Aren't you the one that was criticizing Milano for being too SLOW? Not exactly what most would call an "objective" view. The old glass house thing...

Not asking you to gush over anyone - just be reasonable in your critiques. Speed is not really an area in which you can reasonably or objectively criticize Milano.

10 posts and the immediate contribution you want make is starting a thread to say how overrated you think Milano is?

Absolutely agree. Loved the strategy they took last year and I think it is the blueprint for building and maintaining a perennial division contender

You are a one trick pony. You are less interested in having legitimate football discussions than you are in using every one of your posts to wage your ridiculous crusade.