billsfan1959

You are right. It is about this season and I said earlier in this thread that Lamar Jackson has had an MVP caliber year in terms of production. I also said in that post that I believe Wilson has had an MVP caliber year as well and would get my vote. I do not think it is likely that Jackson repeats what he did this year; however, that is not my reason for going with Wilson as my MVP. Wilson had to carry his team much more than Jackson, with less overall talent.

Haha! That was the year I attended my first game: a 48-6 beating by the Raiders. I started following them because they were the local team and my father's team. That was one of the few games I attended with him and we spent the season hoping the Bills would draft O. J. Simpson. I was a huge fan of his until he became a murderer. Simpson, not my father.

Actually, Watson has a 66% completion percentage, 8 TDs to 2 INTs, and a 100.6 passer rating when blitzed. Watson did not play that well over the last 5 - 6 weeks of the season. They don't need to be blitz heavy. Stop the run, apply good pressure with 4, take away the big pass plays, and they will be fine.

Actually a pretty accurate assessment.

I said earlier in this thread that I would vote for Russell Wilson as MVP. I think Lamar Jackson is a good QB and is having a career year in TD production; however, IMHO, I don't believe he is likely to repeat it - and I don't think he is the QB that Russell Wilson is.

Since 1970 there have been only 12 QB performances where the QB finished the year with a TD% over 8, and only 3 of those were over 9 (Ken Stabler in 1976, Peyton Manning in 2004, and Aaron Rodgers in 2011. Jackson finished the year at 8.98% - or the 4th best TD percentage since 1970. Last year his TD% was 3.4. The League average this year was 4.6. It was the difference between a good year and an MVP caliber year. In terms of total production at the position, he was the best this year. I doubt he will come close to that TD% again (no QB since 1970 has finished with a career TD% over 6). Personally, I believe, if you dig deep into the numbers, that Russell Wilson was the best QB this year.

Well, now that you mention it....

Well, for being the worst QB to ever throw a football in back yard, flag, pee wee, high school, college, and professional football, he did manage to produce the 6th most TDs this year. Of the top 15 QBs, in terms of total TDs, 12 made the playoffs, and Allen is 4th among them. So, pretty good company to be in...

I guess we won't know until it happens. However, I think, with or without Roman, we are not likely to see a repeat of what Jackson did this year in terms of passing touchdown production.; which, IMHO, is the difference between having a pretty good year and having an MVP caliber year.

Record aside, what Mornhinweg did with Jackson doesn't come close to what Roman has done with Jackson. It is not only a design to maximize his running skills - he is a much better passer under Roman's schemes. Jackson and the Ravens can be successful under another OC; however, I don't think anyone would get the most out Jackson's unique set of skills more than Roman.

I think Lamar is very talented and fortunate to have Roman as his OC. He truly is having an MVP caliber year - and one he is not likely to reproduce with or without Roman. However, I think he is better with Roma than without him. I have always been a fan of Roman and, to be honest, I would be interested to see what he could to as a head coach. If he ever gets his chance, and is successful, I prefer it be with a team other than the Browns.

I have no doubt that they can continue to design their offense around Jackson; however, don't think for a second that much of what Baltimore has done this year wasn't a product of Roman's abilities as an offensive coordinator - and Jackson having a career year in TD%, which, as I posted elsewhere isn't the first time. Alex Smith, Colin Kaepernick, and Tyrod Taylor all had their best year in TD% under Roman. I have no idea how he would be as a head coach; but, as an OC, he is extremely talented.

RIP Sam

I haven't had time to go through all the numbers; however, at first glance, I wouldn't have much argument with it. I enjoy crunching numbers on the QBs myself and, the fact is, Tannehill at #3 doesn't surprise me at all. He has been having a really good year. He's played well and also has been the beneficiary of being at the top of the league in YAC per attempt and completion, being in the top ten in lowest % of dropped passes, and having solid pass blocking in front of him (particularly when blitzed - he's been blitzed the 9th most, but has the 2nd most amount of time between the snap and pressure/throw when blitzed).

Allen is #5 in avg distance per throw. The longer the throws, the greater the probability of decreased completion %. As for the rest: He has the highest percentage of passes dropped He has the 3rd most passes thrown away He has the 14th most passes tipped or batted down His blitzed the 2nd most of any QB He is tied for 1st on the least amount of time on blitzes, from snap to pressure/pass He is 10th in least amount of separation by receivers at the point of the catch He is 4th in the least amount of YAC by his receivers per attempt He is 6th in the least amount of YAC by his receivers per completion The math holds up. No other QB in the NFL comes close to ranking that low across all those categories. Just in the percentage of dropped passes, spikes, throw aways, and tipped/batted passes alone - at least 5% more of Allen's passes are dropped, spiked, thrown away, or tipped/batted than any other playoff QB, other than Brady. All the other QBs are between 8% and 10%. Josh Allen 15% Tom Brady 13% Aaron Rodgers 10% Kirk Cousins 10% Patrick Mahomes 10% Lamar Jackson 10% Jimmy Garoppolo 9% Russell Wilson 9% Carson Wentz 9% Deshaun Watson 9% Ryan Tannehill 9% Drew Brees 8% Just for reference, if Allen was at 10% rather than 15% and that extra 5% resulted in completed passes, his completion percentage would be at 64%. Or even, more realistically, if 3% of that extra 5% resulted in completed passes, his completion percentage would be 62%. Not to mention the possibility of keeping drives alive, more chances for big plays, more scoring opportunites, etc., that come along with more completions. Look, I'm not trying to make excuses for Allen, he certainly has much to improve on. But it is not all him. If he continues to improve on not missing easy throws, taking what the defense gives him (those higher percentage throws), trusting his Oline more when facing pressure, and hitting more of those deep opportunities when they present themselves - AND they continue to improve on the Oline, he gets a better receiving compliment (in terms of fewer dropped passes, better separation, better YAC), and a more consistent running game (particularly the short game) behind him, then he has a chance to be a consistent top 10 QB.

There are a lot factors besides, just QB ability that goes into total team offensive output. jrober38 loves to cherry pick stats. I was just offering another perspective. Sorry that anything positive about Allen bothers you - but there are some good things there... Some other factors that might affect a QB's ability to move the football and score points: Percentage of plays in which the ball is thrown away, spiked, dropped by a receiver, or tipped/ batted at (Allen #1 at 15.7%) Distance of throw per attempt (longer throws) (Allen #5) Percentage of passes dropped at (Allen #5 at 7.2%) Being blitzed (Allen #52 at 43% of pass plays) Amount of time, when blitzed, between snap and the throw/when the pocket collapses (Allen #1 in least amount at 2.3 seconds) YAC per att by his receivers (Allen #4 in least amount) YAC per completion (Allen #6 in least amount) Amount of separation by his receivers at the time of the catch (Allen #10 in least amount) Here is Allen's average ranking across those categories compared to the other playoff QBs: Josh Allen 6 Tom Brady 14.8 Carson Wentz 15.3 Russell Wilson 15.4 Lamar Jackson 16.5 Deshaun Watson 16.7 Drew Brees 18.9 Jimmy Garoppolo 18.9 Ryan Tannehill 19.6 Aaron Rodgers 20.9 Patrick Mahomes 22.6 Kirk Cousins 23.2 Allen has a lot of room for improvement; however, he could use some help in other areas as well

Look at the total touchdowns of the QBs in the playoffs: 1, 2, 4, 6 (Allen), 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 16. Actually, how productive you are may play a more important role. Hmmmmmmmm..... But that doesn't fit well with your narrative, now does it?

I'm sure he is. However, he doesn't strike me as the sort of personality that would do that.

Gronkowski was a great TE. Now he should just go away. It is intellectually painful to watch him function in any other capacity than as a player on the field...

I agree that Watson is a better QB at this point. However; I don't think the three of you ever saw a QB you DIDN'T think was better than Allen. You talk about Bills' fans being homers and, yet, you are rarely objective yourselves when it comes to evaluating him.

Tampa actually had a good defense this year. Winston was beyond reckless with the ball and has been since he came in the league.

14 teams had a + point differential and 11 made the playoffs. 18 had a - point differential and only one made the playoffs. Buffalo was the only playoff team that was not in the Top 15 in points scored. Of the Top 15 teams in offensive points, 11 made the playoffs. Of the Top 15 teams in defensive points, 10 made the playoffs. There were 10 teams that finished in the Top 15 in both offensive points scored and defensive points allowed. The only one that didn't make the playoffs was Dallas. Overall point differential really is the one stat that is most closely correlated with playoff teams.

Relax, Baker. This is just a Bills message board - You don't have to keep track of every slight and criticism.....

Kyler Murray had a good year on a bad team and Bosa has been a terror. Don't really have a problem with either selection. I would have also been fine with Josh Jacobs as OROY. I would have loved to see the kind of year Singletary could have had if he had carried the ball more than 8 times in 5 of the first six games he played. If he had just carried the ball an average of 15 times in those 5 games instead of an average of 5.6 carries in those games (with his avg of 5.1 YPC), he would have had 1014 yards to Jacobs' 1150 yards on 59 less carries.