BigBuff423

Huh? The Defense was #2 in the league....maybe you meant Offense? If so, then the rest of it makes sense. I don't agree with your opinion, but at least it explains the rest of your post.

Honestly, I didn’t even think of that - and you’re probably right. Thank you.

It's incredible to me that Jefferson doesn't even make the top 15....Jefferson this year will be last year's McLaurin. His polish, quickness, good speed and ability to make Defenders miss while running a wide slate of routes. He's also 6-3 and has shown he can make all sorts of plays on the ball. Just in the Nat. Champ game last night his fluidity and his ability to change direction on a dime were superb. Give me Jefferson in the 2nd all day and then another WR in the 4th, like Claypool if he lasts that long.

"Serenity Now!!" "Am I crazy or is that a lot of gum?!" "And you want to be my latex salesman?" Love that show, could do this for days.

He just earned All-Pro and has arguably been their best player since Drafted in 2017. There is no question here with all of the Cap Space the Bills will have over the next few years, he is their primary target for re-signing their own players. Regardless of scheme, which can change by the way if a new DC comes in to town, a CB who can cover, tackle, ball hawk and help in leadership and is a good locker room guy, you lock down. That's it. That's the plan - pay him and keep him. They will re-set the market with Tre, but Buffalo has the money and you can only preach culture for so long (which I wholeheartedly believe in) before you need to let the market value reaffirm all of the preaching and show the players you have the integrity to follow through on your promises. He is a 1st Rounder with a 5th year option so I don't think they do it next year, but I do think they pick up the 5th year option and negotiate during that time for his large contract.

I fully recognize and appreciate the Bills Defense is *the* reason they made it into the playoffs and also why they lost the WC game. Poyer and Hyde have been incredible since coming to Buffalo and I'm truly grateful. However, Safety is not a value position IMHO. QB, DE, Top CB, LT and MLB are all high value positions, meaning their position simply by scheme can change the outcome of a game and make a notable impact. Yes, a good Safety can be a terrific player and role to have, but they just don't hold the value above replacement as a position. I know Tre needs to stay and get paid, Dawkins and Milano the same - so to me, as much as I like Poyer, I'd trade him to a contender if possible and take the mid round pick they get in return, say - a 4th? The 4th and 5th round picks for McD and Beane et. al. have turned out quite nicely, so it's not like the years of the past when anything beyond a 3rd round pick was a "throw away". Yes, I know not all of them were like that, e.g. Kyle Williams, but for far too long the Bills just did not Draft well on the whole, let alone in the mid to late rounds. Point being, Drafting a replacement in the mid rounds is probably the better option given what the Bills need to do for their own players and still bring in a few high priority FAs.

Not to mention, given how good he’s been at giving diplomatic answers and being cognizant of the optics of his pressers, imagine the absolute regional melt down if he answered he was over it already? Or that he was confident he could put it behind him quickly? Don’t you want your leader to say he’ll keep this churning in his mind to fuel the competitive fire and learn / mature through it?? Give me a guy who can do what he does physically, demonstrate a profound ability to improve over one season and a fundamental commitment to keep improving knowing he can, any day of the week - all day.

In my opinion, Daboll gets far more vitriol on this board than he deserves. Reading various peoples' takes on his game planning and play-calling who have far more knowledge than I do, say he's done a hell of a job for this Offense given where they are in the rebuild process. If Daboll remains with the Bills and the Bills use some of their Cap space a couple important Draft picks on Offense, plus another year of Allen's development along with second year for Knox and Singletary, I'd say this becomes a very, very good Offense next season. 9 new starters on Offense this year....keep that in mind and remind yourself of a raw 2nd year QB and consider where they're at....it's pretty fricken good all things considered.

This is a relevant topic, IMHO, and one worthy of discussion even more than the overplayed Mahomes v. Allen discussion. And in this case, in my mind, it comes down to long-term vs. short term. To me Watson was the guy who would come in and have the RGIII effect: win early and often, but struggle down the stretch. I may be wrong about Watson (probably am), but I still think he's in the arena of an athlete who can throw the ball over a long-term NFL QB. That is NOT to say I don't think he can play QB or that he isn't an incredible talent, but similarly to Lamar, I have my reservations about Watson's "career" ability to sustain NFL success. Josh Allen is the antithesis to this IMHO. Josh was going to need time to grow, mature, and learn how to play QB at the NFL but has all of the tools and abilities to get that done based on his growth thus far. Had you asked me this question two years ago, I don't know that I could have said it this way with this much internal confidence. However, I think Watson is who he is and he's already peaked in terms of realizing what he can do - which is good to great if he can sustain it. Josh Allen's ceiling has yet to be within sight, again IMO. I don't think we've yet seen what he's fully capable of and I don't think we will until this time next year and as far as fullest potential, it might even be year 4. The growth for some of the best QBs take drastic steps in years three and four and it wouldn't surprise me at all if this were true for Josh Allen. I think Josh has the more sustainable paradigm in his game for success while Watson may or may not be able to sustain his QB style and due to how he hasn't changed his game since he arrived, I doubt it will change much if any more moving forward. So I take Josh Allen due to the long-term viability and to me, likelihood of sustainable success. Edit: I didn't make this clear in my original post so I'll say that yes, I take Josh Allen for this Saturday because IMO this isn't a one year wonder for the Bills to make the playoffs and Allen *NEEDS* this game to grow even more....to prepare him for the playoff years to come, which I definitely believe can and will happen for the Bills. Compounding this thought with my aforementioned opinions, Allen is the better play for this game because of the future.

In your attempt to be dismissive, that point isn't lost on me. End of the story is - we disagree on value. That's it. I have all of the stats and information to support my opinion, you have all the stats and information to support yours. We disagree on where the value is - fair enough. But instead of going back and forth, I think it's best we simply agree to disagree.

Here's an entire article talking about a 1st Round investment in a TE. And when you starting saying things like, "most common Draft Round position of the top 20 all time..", you've basically lost the argument. Because that does NOT consider contemporary trends and what the NFL is today vs. what it was 20 or 30 years ago, let alone more. I'm sure you're more adept at information critical analysis than trying to paint with broad and errant strokes. This is not an end-all-be-all argument, but it does in short order provide some perspective: http://www.optimumscouting.com/news/replacing-gronkowski Here's a few quotes to consider: "Outside of the quarterback position, tight ends have the steepest learning curve when transitioning to the NFL." "They drafted Eric Ebron 10th overall in 2014 and low and behold the next seven picks would make a Pro Bowl while still on their rookie deal. Those players selected would include the likes of Aaron Donald and Odell Beckham. Last offseason, Detroit decided to move on from Ebron as they determined that he wasn't worth the price tag of his 5th-year option ($8.25M)." "It is really worth investing your most important draft asset into a player who may take years to develop and you may not see the benefit until four years down the road or until their second contract? Is there a better use of your resources?" "For every Shockey, you're stumbling across Jerramy Stevens, Marcedes Lewis (Breakout YR 5), Jermaine Gresham, Daniel Graham, Kyle Brady (Breakout YR 7) etc who disappointed on their rookie deals" As to the bolded portion of your reply, is it so nuanced and granular in detail that it is beyond your comprehension to see the difference in Risk : Reward ratio for a QB that you assume they have similar values? In this same fashion, Drafting a good QB in the 1st Round will absolutely change the course of your team, almost irrespective of every other factor, save a horrendous Defense. There are too many examples to note, but this I know you're well aware of so I don't need quotes, or stats, or hyperlinks for you to believe me - you know this already, which makes your QB snark a bit disingenuous to say the least.

It appears we have a very different definition of production and more importantly what I expect out of a 1st Round selection. The issue is that the best TEs for their careers are typically taken in the mid Rounds and it takes 2-3 years before you see real "production" but again we have a difference of opinion on that definition. Because what comes into play is not JUST the player, i.e. TE, you take in the 1st but also the players you forfeit by taking the TE in the 1st Round whereas you can get similar production from a TE in the mid Rounds AND get a DE / WR / OL in the 1st.

Way to take a statement / argument out of context. But, kudos - you've achieved your goal for today.

I'd like (and think they can do it) the Titans to beat the Pats Bills beat Texans Titans go to Baltimore - Ravens Win Bills go to KC - Bills Win Ravens - Bills AFC Title Game. While Ravens deserve to be the logical presumed winner in any game they play up to the Super Bowl, I do think the Bills would have a legit chance in winning this game. I know the Bills lost to the Ravens and Pats in the final weeks, but it just "looks" to me they are / were starting to coalesce as an Offense. However, if I picked what I "wished" would happen, the Titans and Bills would meet in the AFC Conference game.

I didn't leave them out - you could make an argument for Engram although I don't know if he's worth a 1st round pick at this point, but I'm willing to concede that decision based on these stats: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/E/EngrEv00.htm However, OJ Howard has NOT lived up to his 1st Round pick status and I'm not willing to concede that point, here are his stats: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/H/HowaO.00.htm Ebron? Really? He did so well in Detroit with Stafford throwing him the ball that despite a top 10 pick, he didn't do a darn thing until he had Luck tossing him the rock. He had one good year really. That one I can't even begin to take seriously - what makes the Ebron argument worse is putting Njoku - woof. Vernon Davis didn't even begin to earn a true NFL paycheck until his 4th year, here are his stats - and again Drafted 8th Overall, not even close to worth the top 10 pick: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/D/DaviVe00.htm Dallas Clark and Heath Miller? Come on, now you're just trying to find names to fit your narrative and opinion. Do a dive into which TEs have truly produced in the last 10 to 15 years and outside of Gonzalez in the 1st and Gronk in the 2nd, you'll find nearly every one of them was a 3rd round pick or later and they all took 2-3 years before they produced in a way that most of us would like to see the TE produce. Edit: I didn't like Heath Miller and Dallas Clark stats, so here they are: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MillHe00.htm It took Dallas Clark 5 seasons with Peyton Manning throwing him the ball to hit any appreciable mark: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/C/ClarDa00.htm

Sometimes, this fan base is too much for me to stomach. It's arguable their strongest position group and they need bodies in other places, like the Offensive Line to ensure quality players to protect their developing Franchise QB. IMHO if the Bills didn't invest so heavily in the Offensive Line like they did last FA season, I don't think we see the Josh Allen we've seen this year. Josh took a month to get himself together and used that NE game to propel him into a good QB. He has room to grow to get to great, but there have been countless stats to demonstrate his year 2 progression and *that* doesn't happen without a solid Offensive Line in front of him. The injuries along the line at one time or another, have show just how important depth is in that position group. Questioning the reasoning for how that group is managed seems to asinine to me given their success.

I'll say that picking the top 3 FAs also depends on how the Bills treat their own. So, presuming the Bills sign Lawson, J. Phillips and Spain in order to keep these players who will be in their prime on this team for consistency and production, I'd say: 1. Ngakoue (his Tweets indicate he wants to hit FA) 2. Scherff (I like Spain / Feliciano but Allen needs to be protected and Bills have Cap) 3. Byron Jones My reasoning for Jones is because while the Bills have young, promising CBs, having a lock down opposite Tre, allows T. Johnson and Wallace to be added slot guys and T. Johnson can help in run support. Additionally, the Defense will only be younger with Zo moving on and they can use some Veteran presence in the CB room. Also, the Bills seem to have a real penchant for Drafting young LBers and we don't know what they have in V. Joseph yet due to injury but I think he's the rangy type of OLB the covet. As others said, this Draft is deep in WR but I still think the Bills need to add another Vet boundary WR not named Cooper. I like Cooper in terms of talent, but he disappears from games and will want to be paid like the #1 WR in the league, and I don't think his effort warrants that type of contract. I love me some Derrick Henry, but given he just won the rushing title and he is the engine of that Offense, it's hard for me to believe the Titans let him walk. If in fact they do, then I'm all in on Henry b/c I think he's the balance to Motor - strong, big, bull type runner who does have the speed to take it outside and to the house. I think they need to work on Motor's receiving skills and they can be a very complementary 1-2 punch. Otherwise, I can see the Bills using a 4th Round pick on a bruising type of RB. The Bills have lots of Cap, but I think half of it goes to their own players, ala Lawson, J. Phillips, and Spain along with maybe an extension for Tre when they've got cash to spend. Because Dawkins, Milano are right around the corner and then Allen. Those are key positions that will take lots of space to do properly.

The TE position is one of the hardest in the NFL to master. It requires catching, running with the ball, running with the blocking assignment, run and pass blocking, picking up protections and knowing the entire Offense, as in where everyone is supposed to be - not just your route or your block. I've posted this a number of times in the past when someone wanted to Draft a TE in the 1st (or even 2nd Round) when people were mentioning Antonio Gates, Jimmy Graham, Travis Kelce, Jason Witten, etc. Every one of those guys were taken in the 3rd Round or later. Gronk was a 2nd Round pick but other than Tony Gonzalez who was a 1st Rounder, few (if any), have lived up to the billing. TEs take time to develop, each of the above referenced TEs except for Gronk took at least 2 years to develop into their full potential. I think the Bills have their duo in Sweeney and Knox, with a solid guy in Kroft. Lee Smith is fine for now, but I'd prefer Sweeney in that position because I think he's a better catcher and athlete in terms of receiving but big enough to do the blocking work. Knox and Sweeney will seemingly "come out of nowhere" to people outside of Buffalo, but next year and 2021 will be years where we truly start to see their value.

Edmunds is 21 years old....think about that for a minute. He hasn't even grown into his adult body yet. Give him time to get stronger and faster and learn more of the NFL. Much like Allen there has been notable growth with Edmunds in his second year and when we remind ourselves of just HOW young he truly is, and that he's still learning - I think he's earned some appreciation for those aspects of his game. Give him a 3rd year and more time to get stronger and then, let's see where he's at this time next year.

Up the thread I posted Drew Brees' numbers in his first four seasons and the leap he took from year three to four after having a pedestrian second year as a starter, below is Alex Smith. First Overall pick and for 5 seasons didn't do much of anything and missed a season due to shoulder injury until Jim Harbaugh came to town. Alex Smith played for Harbaugh for two years and amassed the stats at age 27 and 28 after being left for NFL road-kill: 2011 27 SFO QB 11 16 16 13-3-0 273 445 61.3 3144 17 3.8 5 1.1 145 56 7.1 7.3 11.5 196.5 90.7 53.0 44 263 5.89 6.13 9.0 5 5 13 2012 28 SFO QB 11 10 9 6-2-1 153 218 70.2 1737 13 6.0 5 2.3 87 55 8.0 8.1 11.4 173.7 104.1 65.1 24 137 6.61 6.76 9.9 7 Here's the link to his career stats: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/S/SmitAl03.htm Before people talk about not improving accuracy, take a look at his 50.9, 58.1, and 48.7% completion rates, which average out to: 52.57%. Smith's next four years are as follows: 60.5, 59.6, 61.3, and 70.2% completion rate, with an average of: 62.9%. The final two years of these stats are Harbaugh years which eventually netted them a 2nd Round pick from KC where his completion percentage remained well above 60% for most of those years except his first. Again, the point here is players DO improve and coaching makes a huge difference. This year is the first year Allen has had a veritable, bonda fide QB coach in Ken Dorsey. There are bones to pick with Josh Allen's QB play, but they are FARRRR less than when he came in as a Rookie and they are NOT founded in lack of development. You can argue he should do "better" in certain areas and I don't believe a reasoned person would disagree, but to say he hasn't make significant strides in development toward becoming a truly great QB is nonsense and myopic at best, and stubbornly biased at worst. Presuming he continues his trajectory toward improvement, Josh Allen will be in the top 5 of most major categories for a QB by this time next year and if he continues to work hard and the Bills put good receivers, blockers, and runners alongside him - he will go down as one of the greats of our generation. There are many "ifs" in those statements, but the prognosis is strongly positive - and that's something to be excited about.

I disagree with the premise of your argument in that any of those QBs could do more with what the Bills have presently. I think Josh’s year has been a microcosm of the team as a whole: young and developing both experience and chemistry to work together on Offense. I think the team gets better as Josh also grows in his talent and experience. In other words even with the above named QBs I do not think the Bills are a serious Super Bowl team. I do think with a 3rd yr for Allen and getting a few more jet players the Offense becomes Super Bowl caliber and the Defense gets incrementally better. However, I respect the difference of opinion. I just think that Josh and the team improve in a parallel process until they have equally gotten to a place where they are true champions. Edit: fat finger-itis, “jet” should be “better”...

I understand that perspective, and I'm not sure there's a "wrong" answer but I just happen to believe (against my original instinct that Josh Allen was not the best pick for the Bills at the time of the Draft) Josh Allen is the right QB for this team, at the right time for this team, and in the right era of the NFL.

IMO, because Spain is worth the 3 year contract. We've seen what leaving the Offensive Line on life support does for a team and signing him does not preclude you from Drafting another OL / LG in the mid rounds. The Bills have Cap room to pay their guys, get good FAs in and do their yearly maintenance on Draft picks and other value adds, ala Nsekhe.

I do - Russell Wilson is great and in his prime, but the Bills team is growing WITH Josh Allen and they've yet to see their best years as a team. Mahomes is great, but I don't know what his production is without Hill and Watkins and Kelce. Watson is also great, but Houston's dome fits him well. I HOPE the Bills build a dome but with the current situation being what it is and will be for AT LEAST the next three years, I'll take Josh Allen given what we've seen from him and his growth. Edit: KC has Reid as well, just a different style than McD.

No one....I wouldn't swap Josh Allen for anyone. He has not even reached close to his potential. EVERYBODY knew he was going to take time to develop - and HE HAS!! His growth is truly remarkable from last year to this one and he's still growing. He could be one of the greatest QBs of our generation as long as he continues to grow. His ceiling has yet to be established and the team is winning. IF and it's a big IF, he grows by the same remarkable increment next year as he did this year - I think you see a tremendous and uncanny resemble to Drew Brees' third year with Favre like arm talent. In other words: accurate and tremendously powerful and smart. I think of Aaron Rodgers but with a better demeanor and attitude who loves Buffalo and is actually a tick better because Brees maximizes his ability through intelligence and touch.