BillsPhan

Walter Football does a "re-grading" of their own draft grades years later. I checked out their 2005 results from their original grades and their re-grading they did 3 years later in 2008. In 20 of the 32 draft grades, they downgraded their own grades. That's a 38% "success rate" in correctly grading teams' drafts right after the 2005 meat market. I don't know too much about Walter Football, they were the first hit to pop up on google when I entered "2005 NFL draft grades." I'm pretty sure they put out annual college draft magazines, though. I think every publication or individual "expert" that announces draft grades should do 3 year "re-gradings" like Walter. Or there should be one "watchdog" blog that does exactly that. I think you would find the Mel Kipers and Todd McShays' having much less credibility if their own "success rates" of their draft grading were announced before the first pick of the draft each year!

That's great, that will bring the Bills playoff-less streak up to 12 - 13 consecutive seasons. Simply amazing. Let me ask you a question. Do you think Buddy Nix and Chan Gailey got all "gussied up" and stood up before the premium seat holders a few weeks ago and told them it should be only "2 or 3 seasons" before they sniff the playoffs again? What did that orator Buddy say: "Now, Y'all jes' keep on payin' up that big money for yer fancy seats, cuase you won't want to miss out on all the excitement 'round here in 3 short seasons." ????

There's nobody I know of this late in the draft that would stand out, but I'm not a Kiper-geek when it comes to studying college players every year either. But don't be surprised if the Bills draft an OT, a QB and a LB like you have listed, plus most likely a WR too. However, the way Nix and his scouts have approached the draft so far, you can most likely expect the Bills to pick players outside of your lists above, and a WR that nobody will have on their radar either. I don't know if its' as simple as Nix, Modrak and staff being egotisitical and trying to "out-think" the experts, or if they really are that much better at spotting true NFL talent, but both picks yesterday were for players that were on other teams boards no doubt, but not as high as Buffalo ranked them. After Spiller and his across the board obvious talent, the Bills have been outside the box twice, and there's no reason to think they will stop now. In fact, you might want to check your lists again and pencil in the 6th or 7th "best OT available", the 4th or 5th "best QB available", and the 3rd or 4th "best LB available". But with Nix's track record being parts of so many successful drafts his entire career, and reading quickly about the backgrounds of Troup and Carrignton, that may not be a bad thing at all!

I can't see the Rams placing that much value on Lynch when they already have Stephen Jackson running for 1,500 + yards season in and season out.

I heard Bull Dog on GR this afternoon say that he wants no part of Clausen now that every team that had a first round pick passed on him. Forget the Tom Brady comparison. That one is too easy and obvious to prove every opinion about drafting QB's dead wrong, and a 6th round Tom Brady pick comes along what, once every 75 years in the NFL draft? But take a look back at the 1979 draft. That's the one where the 49ers drafted Joe Montana, another ND QB who did not impress a lot of NFL experts, scooped him up with the 82nd pick of the draft - the last pick of Round 3. Here are the 3 "top" QB's that were all drafted in the FIRST ROUND that year: 1) Jack Thompson #3 overall to the Bengals. (WHO? Was he the one they called "The Throwin' Somoan"?) 2) Phil Simms #7 overall to the Giants. (Giants fans were mighty pissed that day, but Simms led them to 2 SB's, was MVP of the first one in '86, but got hurt around week 10 of the second SB season and we all know painfully how that one ended in 1991! Simms ended up having a fine career with the Giants, but was certainly no Montana.) 3) Steve Fuller #23 overall to the Chiefs. WHO? So using Bull Dogs' logic, he would not have wanted anything to do with Joe Montana that year because every team, not only in the first round but also in the second round, and all the way up to the very last pick of the third round, passed on the greatest QB in NFL history. Here's the thing about drafting QB's in the NFL. Most NFL personell and most draft experts can identify the one who will be picked number one in any given draft, if there even is one that good. But if a team drafts any QB lower then the number one pick of a draft, there simply are no guarantees he will be a bust, or become a Hall of Famer. It is a total crap shoot.

So even if Maybin was acting obnoxious during a pre-draft dinner, who cares about that stuff anymore? Warren Sapp was still drafted around number 12 or 13 by Tampa despite having tested positive for pot recently before his draft. Randy Moss was drafted in the first round by the Vikings despite him being known as a major head case during his draft. Both of these players will have strong cases of being elected into the HOF some day. Not to say that Maybin will ever have a strong case for being considered anything other then a first round bust if he doesn't make a huge upwards move this season. But these days, in today's world, "being obnoxious" at a dinner is barley tweet-worthy, much less some "all knowing" intelligent reason for not choosing that player the next day in the first round of the draft. I'm sure if Maybin breaks out with 13 sacks this year, Cerato won't be bragging about not choosing him due to his childish behavior the day before his draft!

A Chico and the Man analogy??? I know they have some of those old 70's sitcoms on TVLand and other late night cable channels, but I can't imagine anyone under the age of 50 having the attention span to be able to watch more then 5 minutes of Chico and The Man in todays' "reality" world of TV. As far as Edwards, Fitz and Brohm having no leadership skills? Well first you need talent that the rest of your offense can respect before you can lead them anywhere. For example; Levitre and Wood were forced to start as rookies last year, right? How could they respect Edwards for having absolutley zero talent for reading a defense fast enough, or for having natural talents of feeling his pocket and moving around in it, for him to make up for their lack of experience by completing more passes and making more first downs?? As if they didn't feel bad enough having to be rookies and get beat and try to learn on the fly, their QB's sucked even worse then they did most of the time. What good would it have done for Edwards or Fitz to get in their faces, when they were to busy getting sacked or throwing ints themselves?? If you are old enough to remember watching Chico and The Man when it was a weekly show in the 70's, then perhaps you remember watching Jimbo his first season starting for the Bills in 1986. His line sucked, his offense sucked, his defense sucked, and his team finished 4-12-0. But he made so many great plays and excaped sacks despite never being fast or even quick, he just plain demanded respect.

I'm thinking more and more that Buddy will trade down at #9 for an extra pick. In fact, I think he may trade down more then once during the 7 rounds, unless he trades Lynch for a pick or two. The entire tone from OBD since Chan came in and free agency came and went without a QB, OT, or WR anyone has heard of being signed, has been REBUILDING SLOWLY USING 90% DRAFT. So after ESPN comes back from commercial, don't be too shocked to see the next team after Buffalo "on the clock" and Boomer describing Buddys' trade down.

C.J. Spiller Bruce Campbell Tony Pike

Ah yes, "Pro Football Focus." All you need to know about this "ranking" is that Josh Reed is listed a couple spots above Evans, and that Donald Driver compiled 1,061 yards receiving with over 15 YPC avg, and he was ranked number 70.!

Great take. I agree 100% that Campbell is worth a 5th rounder. I'd even trade a 4th for him, and I would still draft a QB this year within the first 3 rounds. Then I'd cut loose Fitzy and Brohm, and let Campbell and Edwards battle it out this summer, while our new rookie QB learns the ropes a couple of seasons.

Great point! That's over 7 sacks per season, for seasons 16 through 19! In comparison, Aaron Schobel, number two all-time for the Bills in sacks, has averaged only about 8.5 sacks per season during his 9 year career, and he's already contemplating retirement! And Schobel has played his entire career in a 4-3 "gap" defense, which in my humble opinion, should have been offering him more help from inside then Smith ever received. And I always liked Schobel, and if he does retire, finishing number two in sacks all time for the 51 year old Bills' franchise is a hell of an accomplishment with nothing to be ashamed of. That just proves how lucky those of us were to have been able to watch Bruce Smith play for the Bills during his amazing 15 years here. If Aaron Schobel does retire, yes, he will finish number two so far all-time, but with 93 less sacks then Bruce!

Smith would have had an additional 75 sacks over his 15 years in Buffalo, if they played 4-3 his entire career. Try to imagine a big DT lining up next to Bruce's inside shoulder, instead of only having an inside linebacker 3 yards behind him off the line next to his inside shoulder all those seasons they played the 3-4! The most amazing thing about Bruuuuuce is his consistent 100 tackle seasons he compiled year after year, along with finishing his career as the all time sacks leader in the NFL. And he did all of that taking on a double team almost every single play while he freed up the linebackers to make more plays themselves.

Once again, remember the source. Mike Florio may have put a lot of work and time into his "rumor mill blog", that has gotten national attention by NBC Sports sponsoring it. But that doesn't change the fact that he has the freedom to print any damn thing he wants about any team or player or ex-player for that matter, since he always uses un-named "sources" for every one of his stories.

Great job, by Buddy If he offered McNabb an extension, and his second round pick, then there is nothing more he could have done to get him in here.

Wow. You are comparing the Bills having the number one pick in the entire draft in 1985, and using it on the best defensive lineman available in the country, to guessing what Nix, a first time GM, will do with his number 9 pick? Excuse us. Plus, I did not say the Bills season would be lost if he went defense first. I've said all along it won't make any difference who Nix takes with his #9, or if he trades it down for more picks, his Bills will most likely finish last in the AFC East anyway. The only way the Bills move out of last, and contend for an 8-8-0 to a 10-6-0 season this year, is if they really do make the McNabb trade....period. (Unless the rookie QB they draft, if they do draft one, shocks the NFL and plays his way into the starting lineup and has like 17 TD's with only 8 Ints' or something amazing like that!) If anyone believes that Edwards, Fitzy, Brohm or a 4th unproven veteran NFL QB can play well enough to win 8 or more games for the Bills this first year trying to learn a new system, is just dreaming. But as aways when the Bills have gone into a new season over the past 10 that I've predicted them to do lousy, I certainly hope they prove me wrong!!

Starters: SS: Scott FS: Byrd Backups: SS: Wilson FS: Whitner

100% correct on the new rookie cap idea. Aaron Maybins' stupid holdout while his agent waited to see how much every player drafted within 4 picks of him got paid was a disgusting display of pure unearned greed. As for the question in your thread title? If you count Lee Evans as having a good impact, and I still think he has a ways to go to get into elite status, the next last first round draft pick that had a good impact on the Buffalo Bills was Nate Clements in 2001. That's 9 years ago. plus Clements bolted as soon as his free agency came up. Before him, Antoine Winfield was good from '99 draft, but another good player still producing who bolted in free agency. Going back 15 full years, you can add Eric Moulds and Ruben Brown from '96 and '95 as having good impact. So my count is 5 first round picks that had positive impact for the Bills out of 16 total picks over the past 15 years. (I'm not counting Lynch, Poz, McKelvin or Wood yet, although every one still has a chance to turn out to have positive impacts -which would give Levy and Brandon/Modrak/InnerCircle a lot better drafting record. And yes, I'm not counting out Marshawn Lynch yet. He's got too much natural talent and is too young for us to give up on. And even if he gets traded, the player we get in return would count towards Lynch's impact in the future anyway.

Hey you are being a negative Bills fan, there buddy.

I hate you, you negative Bills fan, you!

I Love your top 3 for the trenches, but why waste that pick on Zac Robinson? You obviously don't care about getting a good QB in the draft this year, so for your mock draft, you should replace the token QB at #209, for a 3rd OT or G or C. The only change I would make other then that, would of course to draft a QB with a chance to play in the NFL in a few years in the 2nd or 3rd round, instead of either Thomas or Fox.

The fact that is is widely read proves to me that people love to read unsubstantiated rumors more then facts today. But the major outlets do the exact same thing, such as ESPN reporting about Tiger Woods for a month without ever having anyone on the record as their sources. I guess I've been around too long to get excited about a story that has no facts from anyone "willing to be identified." In other words, there is nothing to report until it really does or does not happen, and Mike Florio would not have ever had a blog that NBC Sports ended up sponsoring if all he ever had to report were facts.

First of all, where are all the Bills fans who don't like anything negative said on this board to flame this post?? You disagree with most of this thread (how dare you?), and then go and predict our great Bills to finish last in the AFC East if they pick defense first? Why, I think I'm supposed to say "I hate you." for being such a negative "fan." That said, I agree 100% with you! If draft-genius Buddy Nix keeps number 9 and doesn't pick the best QB or best OT on his board, you're right. He's just as stubborn and stupid as Donahoe/Levy/Brandon/Modrak/"Inner Circle" were. In fact, forget QB. I think the only player he should use his #9 pick on is whoever he feels is the best OT on his board....period. If he trades down, then all bets are off. Trading down would be fine with me for the extra picks, but once you get below the top 10 picks, the OT's most likely will take a huge drop-off. If Buddy trades down, I will just hope he can pick out the very best talent available with his extra picks, since he won't be drafting a real elite player, unless one slips through the cracks or surprises the experts.

Really? I did not know that. Well, there you go, if that's the case then I'll give ol' Buddy credit for signing him.

If the Bills say no to Tebow, I do hope they draft Clausen, McCoy or even Pike this year.