OldTimer1960

For all the hype around this class, the pickings for a big, fast outside receiver who can run patterns other than deep shots are pretty slim. If we accept that Harrison, Odunze, Nabers and Thomas are going to be out of reach, it leaves (from that list) Franklin who has speed, height and some smoothness but is very thin (probably not making a living over the middle), Worthy who is a more extreme case than Franklin, and Mitchell/Coleman who have size and some agility, but probably aren’t burners. The rest on that list are going to have problems trying to fill the role that Gabe Davis had and they need to be mostly slot guys. I do like Javon Baker, but I don’t know how high they would have to take him. 60? 99?

I understand your point about contested catches, but is that a big concern with Legette? He isn’t going to be a rote runner supreme like McConkey is, but bigger, likely faster and much stronger should translate to getting open. In the few games I’ve seen of Legette, he doesn’t seem like every catch is contested, but it’s nice that he can make those. The examples you cited (Nacua, Dell, St. Brown, etc) make a lot of their living in the slot and middle of the field. Inside, route runners have a little more room and can go either way on a cut. Outside, that’s possible too, but they are more constrained. I am biased towards the nuanced route runners, too, but Bills already have Kincaid and Shakir looks on the upswing and both will be mostly in the middle of the field. Another receiver operating in there seems like it would bring too many defenders in there.

I am puzzled by the lack of hype for Legette. I think the concerns with him are: 1 year production, a bit older than other prospects, long speed but not instant acceleration and he doesn’t look like a “smooth” mover like say Troy Franklin. But man, he looks pretty fast, is built VERY strong and seems to catch pretty well with his hands. If they could be sure he would be available at 60, I would say take a DL in round 1 and him in round 2. We will see how he (and others) test this week, but my guess is 4.5ish 40, pretty good jumps and just OK short area quickness and agility. Unless the Bills manage to sign a decent DT and DE in FA, I don’t think they will take a 2nd receiver until late because the DL and S are in limbo right now.

I think quite possible. He had a really rough week at the Senior Bowl and was shutout in the game, too.

Thanks, I imagine that was a lot of work! What metrics did you consider and which particular metrics did Thomas, Coleman, Mitchell and Polk not do well on? What are the sources of the metrics that you used? Some metrics seem very prone to opinions like “drop %”. Who decides what is a drop vs poor pass vs good defense and is the same “judge” creating the metric for each player? I don’t think being “only” 6’1” is a problem at all. Taller isn’t alway better - though I’d happily take Megatron in his prime.

I do like Latu. His medical is scary, but NFL will be all over that.

A lot of the guys you listed are interesting players, but not sure they can play outside where Gabe Davis played.

What is a reasonable yards per route run? I don’t know the source, but I read somewhere that Gabe Davis had 0.97 Yprr. That might be wrong, but it would not surprise me.

Kinda like KC did? No argument that receiver is a need and a very important one, but the Bills’ literally don’t have a full DL under contract and they are $50M over the cap right now. Do you want to see Eli Ankou start at DT (or even be on the roster?) or Kingsley Jonathan be the top backup DE? I am not saying that they can’t draft a WR at 28 or even move up a spot or two to do so, but I think rounds 2-4 need to produce a DT and a DE who can play meaningful snaps this year. Did I not say that I am not against WR in round 1?

I am not against a receiver in round 1, but I’m not in for a trade up unless it costs only a 5th or later pick. The only realistic trade up seems to be for Brian Thomas and I’m not sure he is a great deal better than Legette or Franklin or even Devonte’s Walker (in 2nd).

I love this discussion, but I think we have to brace for the possibility of not taking a WR in round 1. I don’t know what Beane might be able to pull off to address DT, DE in FA, but I know that the cap situation is bad and, despite what some want to believe, the cap is not completely elastic (meaning you can’t just keep kicking money down the road forever). At present, the team doesn’t even have enough DL to start, much less have backups. That is real and, while it is fun to think that the Bills could just score every drive if only they could add Thomas Jr, that isn’t true. LSU had BOTH Malik Nabors AND Thomas Jr AND Jayden Daniels at QB and they didn’t score every drive against college defenses. Whether in 1st or 2nd and 3rd, DL needs attention.

Lots can change (in public draft rankings) at the Combine next week. I imagine that some receivers will run/jump better than expected and some will lose status to poorer workouts than projected). Coleman and Mitchell assessment can change a lot depending on their testing. Likewise, Franklin could move up or down depending on his strength and weight.

Agree - I think finding someone who is as good as Gabe (after some experience) can be done as late as 3rd, but if they want a big outside receiver who has really great speed too, that has to come in first - if they can even get that there.

This is not a bad idea, probably would net the Bills’ the Panther’s top of fourth pick, if Carolina would do it.

I like Leggette quite a bit. I think he is fast, but we’ll see what his 40 time is. It won’t bother me if he is at 4.5, but some will think that is slow. Comparison to Rousseau is a good one except Rousseau (and Edmunds) were very young when they came out whereas Legette is older than typical. Legette is yong at the position, but not in age. Isn’t Corley mostly a slot guy? Of course, doesn’t hurt to have competition for Shakir.

I think McConkey is going to run a good 40 next week at the combine. I don’t think he is slow. I’m not saying he is the 5th best receiver in this class, but I think he will run better than 4.5. I also think Worthy and Corley are listed higher than I would expect.

That might be manageable from cap this year, but almost certainly they will be eating a lot of the cap next year moving on from Miller. He will be 36 during 2025 season.

Just wondering what you think Diggs’ and Miller’s answer would be when approached? I think they already paid each of them A LOT up front anyway.

If they can get a 1st for Diggs at this age and not destroy the cap in trading him, then go ahead. I don’t know the cap hit if they trade him now, but I don’t think it would be trivial.

I’m not saying no to an elite receiver. I’m simply saying that I don’t want to trade the 2, 3 or 4 to move up a few spots in round 1. Exceptions exist, of course. If there is only 1 receiver remaining at a certain tier on their board and there is a big drop off from there, fine trade up a few slots. What I don’t want is to wait until pick 99 to make a 2nd pick that is likely to have to play a lot on D. If you feel Thomas Jr is considerably better than Franklin, then I hear you, but from my vantage point I think it’s likely that at least 2 of picks 2, 3 and 4 need to be a S and DT. Those are the rounds where I would rather use the 5ths or 6ths to move up to address D needs. My view will change a lot if somehow they can keep Jones at DT and Rapp a S. Even then, would be wise to get a young player at both positions this year so they have a year before Jones and Poyer leave. I am really not anti-WR, I am strongly in the camp that either 1st or 2nd pick needs to be used there.

Worthy’s speed is enticing, but wouldn’t he almost have to play in the slot to be most effective? I think he will struggle big time out wide at 170lbs. To me, they would be pushing Shakir out of the lineup and still have nobody to play where Davis did.

Straw man? Come on. Yes, free agency is yet to happen, but even if they resign Jones they still need a young DT, young S, young DE. They are not all coming with their 5th round picks on. Further to your point, I didn’t say don’t use their 1st on a receiver. They NEED a receiver to replace Davis - I think we agree on that. I’m mainly saying I don’t want to trade 2, 3 or 4 to move up in the 1st. I don’t think any of us knows who will be the best among Thomas, Franklin, Coleman, Legette, Mitchell and I don’t think it is wise to draft to block the Chiefs or any other team.

Kind sir, my post was not about doom and gloom, but anyway you look at it, right now Chiefs have about $20M cap and Bills are about $40M over. That is significant, but but my point was Bills have a lot of defensive holes to fill - and need players there that can play meaningful snaps. I understand that the 2 5ths and 3 6ths won’t all make the team and I’m not against trading some of those to move up, but I’d rather do that in the 2-4th round where those 5ths and 6ths can move you up to target a player at a position of need when the overall remaining talent in the draft is drying up. The idea that if the Bills can add a potentially outstanding receiver, then holes on D don’t matter is appealing to us fans, but I remember watching horrible defense and that is terribly frustrating. D matters- basically the top playoff teams had very good defenses, including the two SB teams.

That’s all true, but KC is in much better shape cap wise. As it stands currently, the Bills could not even field a starting DL. Now, maybe they can find a way to re-up, say, Daquan Jones and Epenesa in FA. If they can do that, they would have a DL of Jones and Oliver at DT with Eli Ankou the only reserve and Rousseau, Miller, Epenesa and Jonathan at DE. That still leaves the team in need of a starting S and competent DT backup to find in the draft, I totally agree that they need WR help - very likely someone who can play at least the majority of snaps in Davis’ position, if not being the outright starter there, but I think the other needs preclude being too aggressive in trading up. Outside of the top 3 (Harrison, Odunze, Nabors) who are way out of range, I think Coleman, Thomas, Leggette, Franklin, Mitchell, and maybe Rice and Polk could fill that role as well as Davis. Obviously, they are not all on the same tier amongst that group, but they could fill that role. Beyond them, there are other wr in this class that probably can’t fill that role, but would contribute to the offense. I don’t think that any of the group that could fill Davis’ role are going to become top level #1 receivers, but then nobody thought Stefan Diggs, Amon Ra St. Brown and Cooper Cupp would ever be high volume dominant receivers. Long way around to say that I would not want to trade anything more than a 5th this year to move up in round 1 because they need cheap competent labor this year and may need starters at S, DT and might need depth there as well.

They need some bodies to play meaningful snaps on D. I don’t see any way that they would be willing to part with their compensatory 3rd or 4th to move up. This might be the year to trade out of the 1st round to the top of the 2nd and maybe pick up an early 4th in the deal.