OldTimer1960

I disagree with the expectation that you should be able to find "difference makers" with all or most 2nd and 3rd round picks. You *hope* that you find good players in those rounds, of course. However, the reality is that if you get a solid contributor (doesn't have to be a star) in rounds 2 and 3, you are doing well. Heck, even in the first round, if you get a solid starter you have done well. I randomly grabbed the first round of the 2007 draft. Have a look at it and, yes, there are some great players, but there are a ton of outright busts including #1 overall Russel, #4 overall Adams, Jarvis Moss, Brady Quinn and Craig Davis. Many others never became solid starters. 1 Oakland Raiders JaMarcus Russell QB Louisiana State 2 Detroit Lions Calvin Johnson WR Georgia Tech 3 Cleveland Browns Joe Thomas OT Wisconsin 4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Gaines Adams DE Clemson 5 Arizona Cardinals Levi Brown OT Penn State 6 Washington Redskins LaRon Landry SS Louisiana State 7 Minnesota Vikings Adrian Peterson RB Oklahoma 8 Atlanta Falcons Jamaal Anderson DE Arkansas 9 Miami Dolphins Ted Ginn Jr. WR Ohio State 10 Houston Texans Amobi Okoye DT Louisville 11 San Francisco 49ers Patrick Willis ILB Mississippi 12 Buffalo Bills Marshawn Lynch RB California 13 St. Louis Rams Adam Carriker NT Nebraska 14 New York Jets Darrelle Revis CB Pittsburgh 15 Pittsburgh Steelers Lawrence Timmons LB Florida State 16 Green Bay Packers Justin Harrell DT Tennessee 17 Denver Broncos Jarvis Moss DE Florida 18 Cincinnati Bengals Leon Hall CB Michigan 19 Tennessee Titans Michael Griffin FS Texas 20 New York Giants Aaron Ross CB Texas 21 Jacksonville Jaguars Reggie Nelson FS Florida 22 Cleveland Browns Brady Quinn QB Notre Dame 23 Kansas City Chiefs Dwayne Bowe WR Louisiana State 24 New England Patriots Brandon Meriweather DB Miami (Fla.) 25 Carolina Panthers Jon Beason MLB Miami (Fla.) 26 Dallas Cowboys Anthony Spencer OLB Purdue 27 New Orleans Saints Robert Meachem WR Tennessee 28 San Francisco 49ers Joe Staley OT Central Michigan 29 Baltimore Ravens Ben Grubbs G Auburn 30 San Diego Chargers Craig Davis WR Louisiana State 31 Chicago Bears Greg Olsen TE Miami (Fla.) 32 Indianapolis Colts Anthony Gonzalez WR Ohio State

It depends on how the Bills have the top OTs graded. From my favorite sources whom I know do their own scouting and have good connections in the NFL, I only see Kalil and Reiff rated as high as a top 10 pick. There are varying opinions on Martin from Stanford - some feel he would be good value at 10, others seem to feel that he is a better RT option and therefore shouldn't fit in the top 10. After Blackmon, I don't think that any of the WRs are sure enough bets to go as high as #10. I think that Kendall Wright really hurt himself with a slow 40 at the combine and I (personally) don't like Floyd from ND. Floyd has too many off-field concerns that suggest that he could have problems in the NFL for me to take him at 10. If Reiff isn't available at 10, my current thought is that Melvin Ingram could be the pick in spite of his less than ideal height. He is probably the best pass rusher in the draft and has shown outstanding athleticism and versatility. He could be very good in a hybrid 4-3 / 3-4 defense. Still, there is some concern about his height and arm length....

I am in general agreement with you that a player's performance over his college career should be weighed more heavily than his combine performance. However, since players play against different competition, in different schemes with different supporting casts (teammates), scouts can't always be completely sure of what they see on the field. For instance, a player may *look* fast on the field, but is he really fast or is his competition slow (or the scheme/teammates putting him in the position to look fast)? If you don't know exactly how strong a player's opposition is, how can you tell how strong a player is from tape? Granted, the combine drills don't translate directly to football playing ability (for instance, they can't measure how instinctive a player is or how good his on-field decision making is), but they are the only view scouts get of players on a completely level playing field. The things that the combine are useful for (IMHO) include: 1. Confirming a player is as athletic as he looks on the field (or raising a red flag if they aren't) 2. Confirming that a player has put in the effort to train for this event - BIG red flag if they haven't 3. Identify "potential" players - guys that have better athletic ability than they showed in college - perhaps because of scheme or that they were stuck behind a great player for much of their college career. 4. Teams get to interview players (of course they can do that in other venues, too).

I don't think that you should look at it as "3rd best LT vs 1st best WR (or other position)". The two things that matter are how good each individual player is and how they fit with your team's schemes and needs. Heck the 3rd best LT might be better than the best player and most other positions.

I like Upshaw. I think he will be a good solid run-stopping 4-3 DE with very good instincts who will generate occasional pass rush through power and tenacity. Just watching some games of his tells you that he isn't likely to be the premier pass rushing DE that the Bills are missing. I think that the combine just confirmed that he is as described.

I only see 3 top OTs: Kalil, Reiff and Martin. I think Adams would be an extremely risky pick. He is clearly huge and talented, but definitely does not work hard in the gym - I think there are players in the Lingerie Football League that can out bench press him. Unless he has had some injury that has prevented him from lifting, his workout at the combine was inexcusable. A guy that big with his obvious talent who hasn't bothered to train is a bust waiting to happen.

My claim (which only said "reportedly") is based on Mayock saying that Claiborne is a far superior technical player with better cover skills and ball-skills. No doubt at all, Peterson is the superior athlete. But that doesn't mean that he is a better DB. I might wager that Leodis McKelvin's athletic tests at the combine were better than Darrelle Revis', but there is absolutely no question that Revis is the better DB. I am NOT saying Claiborne is Revis nor am I saying that Peterson is McKelvin. I am only saying that athletic ability doesn't always translate to football ability.

Yes, we should trade all of our team for all of their team. They are much better than the Bills are.

Let's clarify this again. Morris Claiborne is the best CB prospect in this draft and reportedly a better prospect than Patrick Peterson was last year. However, he is NOT the LSU DB that they called Honey Badger (BTW, he is better than that guy, too).

I don't understand the premise of this thread at all. Is there an issue with the idea that Nix isn't willing to trade 3 #1 picks and change for RG3? He didn't say that he doesn't think that RG3 is any good. He is saying (if these reports are even true/accurate) is that there is only so much he is willing to give up to get that guy. Let's say I have a nice house for sale. Let's say that it is PERFECT for your family and about 6 other families. The overall market value of the house is about $150K. Are you an idiot to not bid against someone who is willing to pay $250K for it? This is an admittedly contrived example. In reality, the house is a (MUCH) easier decision. Buyers can easily evaluate whether the house will meet their needs prior to the transaction. They don't need to worry about how the house's value "plays at the next level" (or in a new neighborhood). They don't need to worry if the house will lose motivation when they pay $250K for it. They don't need to wonder what the house's value will be based on the properties surrounding it (that is already established). However with Rg3, we don't know how his game will translate to the NFL level. We don't know for sure that he can fit whatever scheme the Bills want to run (unless it is EXACTLY what Baylor ran). We also don't know how he would perform with a (relatively) weaker supporting cast than he had at Baylor. How could anyone complain that Nix won't get into a "whatever it costs, I'm buying" bidding war for a great prospect, but one (like all prospects) is unproven?

I agree that another pass receiving threat is needed on offense, but I am not sure that I like Michael Floyd - especially at the #10 overall spot. If the grades for a pass rusher or LT are even close to Floyd's (per the Bills), I would much rather have the DE or LT. I just have a feeling about Floyd not being too big of a star...

I don't think that there is ANY chance that Nick Perry will be around at the top of the2nd, much less when the Bills pick in the second. With his added weight/strength, I think he will go in the to 20-25. I don't think the Bills can afford to draft both Mercilus and Perry in the first 2 rounds, even if Perry were to miraculously make it to their pick in round 2.

If they consider Tannehill, imho I would consider what it would take to trade up to #2. I can't imagine a college coach playing this guy at WR IF they thought he had NFL starting potential. You can tell me that he was stuck behind a "system" QB at A&M, but if he was that good, he'd have been starting at QB in college.

IF they believe RG3 is nearly a can't miss franchise QB, then it is almost certainly trading 2#1s and other picks to get him. Problem is, what if they are wrong? Then they have completely handicapped their rebuilding for 2 more years.

Thank you. Every year, many here suggest this and either there is no suggestion as to why any team would give up multiple picks to get the 10th pick or there is some overvaluation of some player that the poster believes is worth someone else trading up for, but isn't worth the Bills' pick. The Bills' needs this year line up with the very highest priority positions in the NFL: pass rushing DE, pass rushing OLB, LT, QB and to a lesser extent WR. If there aren't any players worth taking at any of those positions, what would entice another team to trade up?

Good stuff! I love the draft and read everything that I can about it and have my favorite "sources". Russ Lande's GM Jr has been my favorite for years. I admit that this is a very nerdy hobby.

I wouldn't count Troup out so easily. He has been injured and a back injury is a big concern for a DT, but the guy seems to be very dedicated to working out to improve and become a contributing player. He reportedly worked out very hard last offseason to become bigger and stronger. If they have corrected his back problem, I am hopeful that he can help this team.

I haven't looked at the $ saved, but (excluding Kelsay) I'd be surprised if the total $ saved was enough to sign a mid-tier FA this year. These guys are solid vets who don't cost a ton. I am not sure cutting them to replace them with late round draft picks is the best idea.

I am rooting for Easley, but come on - he is an unheralded 4th round pick with 1 year of college production at U Conn. He has played exactly 0 NFL regular season downs in 2 years and (obviously) has 0 catches. They need to have a better plan for another offensive weapon than "hey, let's hope that guy that started part of one season at U Conn miraculously turns into a star".

I'm thinking more that they would consider trading up from the 2nd round into the back end of the 1st to get him there. I don't think they will find any suitors for the 10th pick in order to trade down. Once you get past Luck, RG3, Claiborne, Kalil and maybe Blackmon, I don't think there is anybody in the draft that would get a team excited enough to want to move up to 10 and I don't know if Mercilus is good enough to consider taking at the 10th position. From what I can see on videos, Mercilus has incredible movement skills. He appears to have a fluidity of movement and ability to stay on balance that reminds me a little of how Bruce Smith moved. Now I DID NOT say that he is Bruce Smith. The big question is if he has what appears to be such great athleticism, then why did he do nothing until his Junior year. It isn't like he was playing behind big-time stars at Illinois.

Hmm, interesting thought. None of these guys are sure things, but there are a couple of things that concern me with Brockers and the Bills. He his clearly a very impressive athlete. I think he'll show very well at the Combine. However, he doesn't have a lot of playing time behind him and , probably more important to me, he doesn't really resolve the need for DEs and OLBs. If they took Brockers, he could play DE when they go to a 3-4 look. But, what would you do with him when they are in the 4-3? Maybe he could play the run-stuffing LDE position - I don't know. If he has to play DT in the 4-3 (ie isn't good at DE), then who does he displace? Dareus? Kyle WIlliams? I don't think taking either of those guys off the field is a step in the right direction. Now, if it's Brockers or a guy at DE, OLB or OT that the Bills rate significantly lower then I think you still have to consider Brockers. I just wonder what kind of defense they'd be building...

I like Upshaw - tough football player who appears to have the work ethic and attitude to be a contributor in the NFL. I don't see him as much of an upgrade as a pass rushing DE, though. By his own account, his main pass rush "move" is the bull-rush. While Upshaw is powerful, I have a hard time thinking that a 6'2" 275lb DE is going to be as successful as he was in college trying to bull-rushing 6'5" 330 NFL LTs. I don't know that I see enough athleticism there for him to develop many other counter moves. With Upshaw and Kelsay at DE and Dareus and Williams in the middle, the pass plays will look a lot like 4 DL trying to push 5 OL straight back. Collapsing the pocket can be a good thing, just tough to rely on all the time. Don't get me wrong, the Bills could do much worse than drafting Courtney Upshaw, but I struggle to see him as a guy that will significantly upgrade the Bills pass rush. I think (*hope*) that there will be another player available that can have a bigger impact at another position.

I agree that Ingram might be a pretty good pass rusher - I just don't see someone who will single-handedly elevate the pass rush. I also hope that you are right about some decent pass rushers who may be available in round 2. Given that, I am sort of moving to the camp that thinks the Bills should address another position in round 1. Perhaps there will be a very good LT available or possibly an outstanding CB. If the chance arises to get a really outstanding player at a lesser position of need, then I think that will be a better option than a small upgrade at DE or OLB. While it is not usually the Bills' M.O., they need to address DE and OLB in free agency and then hope to be able to bolster that with picks after round 1 in the draft.

My opinion is that there are no game-changing pass rushers and every one of them seems to be a significant compromise. Ingram seems to be the more athletic between he and Upshaw, but I don't see a great pass rusher in Ingram. Upshaw is more plow-horse than thoroughbred - at not quite 6'2" and 275 his game is solely power and effort. He is a safe, high-floor kind of player if you are looking for a 4-3 DE who can stop the run and provide a bit of bull-rush, but I don't think he'll have as much success bull-rushing HUGE NFL OTs and he doesn't possess the speed or moves to get around them. Coples has too many questions regarding his production and effort, but he is clearly a superior athlete that can excel when he wants to. I haven't seen much of Mercilus, but from the admittedly limited highlight videos, he moves very smoothly. He might have a lot of upside, but why didn't he do anything until this year? It is a really poor year for pass rushing DEs. It isn't great for 4-3 OLBs, either. Unfortunately, those are the positions that the Bills MUST improve in order to make headway on defense.

That, but it also gives an indication of each player's basic athletic ability. There are TONS of factors involved in a player's productivity in college: His ability, ability of his competition, scheme he plays in, ability of the players around him, competition on his own team for playing time, etc... For example, a player on a top-level college team may benefit from the fact that the opponents can't focus solely on him because his teammates are also great. Or- a great player may not put up a ton of stats for the same reason - he has so much competition on his own team for those stats - or- a player's stats might not be high because his team is so dominant that the starters are often pulled by half-time. Another factor is distribution of productivity against competition. Some players rack up a high percentage of their stats against a few very inferior opponents. There are lots more reasons that it is very difficult to rely on only college production.