OldTimer1960

I concur, but I am not totally aligned with the concept of "grooming" a mid-later round pick to be the QB. SOMETIMES, mid-late picks become good QBs, but the phrase "groom a future starter" is a mis-nomer, in my opinion. The later round guys who have succeeded, I would argue, did so because of their innate talent/drive - not because someone "groomed" them. How did it work out for the guys that were "groomed" behind Jim Kelly, Dan Marino, John Elway, etc? Not very well. I don't think it is necessarily coaching-up that helped Brady, Montana, etc to succeed, but rather that they were undervalued and had the talent/drive to succeed all along.

I think this *only* means that the Bills don't think that any remaining free agent WRs are much better than what they already have, particularly given what they might have to pay for the remaining WR FAs. I don't think it means that the Bills are satisfied with their weak collection of WRs. Stevie Johnson is a borderline good/very good NFL WR. David Nelson is an OK 2/3 WR. NOBODY else on the roster has proven anything, nor do they have the "great" potential some here want to ascribe to them. I am not a believer in Donald Jones or Marcus Easley. That does not mean that I don't think that one or both might develop into an NFL WR, but I do think that the odds are against the Bills in both cases. Naaman Roosevelt is a nice story, but probably isn't anything more than a marginal guy. Derek Hagan and the rest of last year's stop-gaps are just that. I don't blame the Bills for not going hard after the FA WRs as not many will be very good (IMHO). I think that we'll see a WR taken in the first 3 rounds of the draft, but I would not necessarily bet on it. I think that there might be some decent talent available in round 2 at WR (I wouldn't be too surprised if Baylor's Kendall Wright is available at the top of round 2, unless he runs MUCH faster than he did at the combine. I'd consider Ryan Broyles in round 2 or 3, but you have to accept that he might not contribute much this year coming off a knee injury. I am OK with that, but some here think draft picks have to contribute a lot in year one or they are busts. FWIW, maybe the best receivers available in round 2 might be TEs. I'd strongly consider Coby Fleener at the Bills' 2nd pick over most of the WRs.

By this standard, I wonder if Eli would still be in NY to have won his 2 Super Bowls. I also wonder if he'd have won even one if the Giants hadn't had their dominant D. By the same standard, Drew Brees would be out of the NFL, Jim Plunkett would never have won a Super Bowl and Steve Young would not have gotten a chance in SF. Peyton Manning would have surely been released by the Colts because he didn't win the SB in his first several seasons.... Players improve (sometimes), other parts of the team matter besides QB.

I think Kelsay is actually a pretty good run-stuffing DE who might show some pass rush with Williams, Dareus and Williams on the same line now. The other problem with your proposal is that there are no good free agent offensive tackles to sign. Bell is among the best on the market.

Very insightful comments, but I can't see Stephen Hill being a good pick at all. Hill caught all of 28 passes in his last season and a weak total of 49 for his entire college career. If a team takes him in round 1 at all, let alone at 10, it will be a major gamble. Hill did at least have a high yards-per-catch average. I acknowledge that GT is a run first, run second and then MAYBE pass team, but still that is WEAK production for a high #1 pick. In comparison, Calvin Johnson caught 178 passes in his college career at the same school (about 4.5x what Hill caught in the same number of years). In comparison to Demarius Thomas (also from GT), he caught 120 passes in 3 years (about 2.5x what Hill caught).

I am not a scout, but follow the draft closely. I don't like that draft at all. I think Brown and Irvin would be less than impactful in this defense. Yes, they are the right size, but Brown has questions about his toughness and Irvin is a never-was starter in college. He is limited to a situational pass rusher in the NFL (both IMHO). Mychal Kendricks is a football player and might be available in the 3rd. I would rather have Reiff, Kuechly, or Irving and one 2nd round pick than Gilmore, Brown and Irvin (and even another pick).

I think that Mario Williams, Marcel Dareus and Kyle Williams will provide a significant upgrade to the last several year's extremely weak pass rushes. However, there is still not a lot of pass rush coming from the other DE position or any of the LB positions. No single player (IMHO) will make THAT big of a difference. NOTE, I am not necessarily advocating taking Ingram at #10, but I could definitely see why they might. I also like LT Reiff and (maybe Martin) and LB Kuechly. I just want them to try to get a very good player with a high floor that can be a starter for a number of years. What is your take on who will play RDE (the main pass rush position in the 4-3) for the Bills this year?

I just don't see it with Floyd. He did well in college when he wasn't suspended for alcohol related problems (3x). He played at a college that has to be within the top 10 in terms of ease of recruiting top level players. I don't especially like his hands and I don't like WRs that high in the draft. There have been WAY too many WRs that have busted taken high in round 1. Go ask Matt Millen what that did for his career. I will admit that SOME outstanding WRs have been taken high in round 1, but I am not ready to compare Floyd to Calvin Johnson or Andre Johnson. My vote, so far is one of the following: OT Riley Reiff DE Melvin Ingram (yes, even with the Mario Williams signing) LB Luke Kuechly (IF the Bills scouts think he can be an outstanding OLB). DE Quinton Coples (ONLY IF the Bills' scouts can explain away his weak last season).

Even with the less-than-quick Upshaw, where does the pass rush come from? Upshaw is an excellent college football player and will (IMHO) be a good, not great, NFL player at 4-3 DE. He does not have the speed, quickness or length to be a top-level NFL 4-3 DE, but could be a very good solid Left Defensive End who stuffs the run and provides some pass rush via his bull-rush. However, for those here who do not appreciate Chris Kelsay, that is exactly what he (Kelsay) does. FWIW, I think Kelsay is a good NFL Left Defensive End who holds up well vs the run and does an OK job as a pass rusher. It is only because the other pass rushers are so weak that Kelsay looks less than good (again, IMHO).

I am not totally scared off by Kirkpatrick having smoked pot, but I just don't think he will be that good - especially against the Pats' smaller quicker receivers. Even at 6'2" he isn't a match for Gronkowski or Hernandez who are still considerably taller and stronger than him. Just my opinion, but I think taller CBs don't have the change-of-direction quickness to match up with most WRs in the NFL. I personally would prefer any of the following to Kirkpatrick (and there are others that I'd take over Kirkpatrick too): DE/pass rusher Melvin Ingram - Mario Williams alone does not solve the pass rush problems this team has had for years. MLB/OLB Luke Kuechly - only if the team was confident that he could play OLB or that they like him far better than Kelvin Sheppard whom the team seems to think highly of. OT Riley Reiff - If he is available, he could very well be the pick.

It is enticing to think of grabbing Ingram in round 1. With the addition of Williams and Ingram, their pass rush would be very much improved. I think that your earlier point about Fitz being a 3 step drop QB and therefore there is no need to invest in a quality LT is a little off. With the poor LT play the Bills have had with Bell out, they don't even have the threat of being able to throw mid to deep. Without that threat, safeties and LBs don't have to respect the deep play and can creep closer to the line, thus congesting the areas that those short passes go to, as well as making it more difficult to run the ball. I am not necessarily saying that drafting Ingram over a LT would be a bad move- quite the contrary. I am saying that finding a talented LT would open up the offense, even with a QB that doesn't have the greatest deep arm in the league.

From the link that you provided: WEAKNESSES The major knock on Kuechly is that he had a lot of "inflated" tackle production throughout his career, the idea being that he is indeed a superb tackler but most of those tackles came 5 to 8 yards downfield in pursuit. He didn't get up into the line of scrimmage to make powerful, impactful plays much, and won't be relied upon as a pass rusher at the next level and is strictly a tackling, sideline-to-sideline backer. The down-field production was the BIG knock on Poz. I don't care what their listed weights are, look at Ray Lewis' thick monster build and look at Kuechly. I think there is a big difference. Lewis is an INTIMIDATOR, Kuechly doesn't seem to be that based on what I've read, seen, heard. Now, I am not saying that Kuechly isn't a very good player. I think he probably is, and I think that Poz was unfairly criticized here and is better than he got credit for. However, I think Ray Lewis is probably the best LB in the last 30 years.

He is not big and didn't prove to be nearly as fast as advertised at the combine. For a smaller guy who was supposed to be a speed-demon, his 4.61 40 should be a real red flag. He looked "soft" in the body, too (IMHO) - ie, he didn't have the well defined, low-body-fat body that most receivers do.

It IS a rumor mill (and advertised as such). I go there for credible rumors, not all of which are true.

There are no good options. I can't imagine the Bills having the luxury to draft a WR early enough to be a legit number 2 this year. Many will disagree, but I don't like Michael Floyd, especially at #10. I'd rather see them reach for an OT or marginal DE like Melvin Ingram than take Floyd. I think that their best option would have been to sign another decent TE like Carlson or Bennet and go 2 TE, with Stevie Johnson and David Nelson at WR. The remaining FA WRs are nothing special (they could just as well get Josh Reed out of retirement) and they can't afford to spend an early pick on a WR in the draft with the state that the defense is in (and LT).

That's already gone. All of the good starting-caliber players are already off the market. There may be some OK depth signings available, but no real upgrades at any position left.

I agree that the Bills' must find a very good player, regardless of position, and avoid "reaching" for a lesser player at a position of need. Mario Williams is as good as gone when he leaves Buffalo tonight, so don't factor that into this discussion. The comparison of a maxed-out 242 pound Kuechly to the monster Ray Lewis is silly, IMHO. I am a long-time draft fanatic, but not a scout - but I see Kuechly as more Poz/Shane Conlan than once-a generation Ray Lewis. Besides, how much of an upgrade would Kuechly be over Kelvin Sheppard. He would have to be considered a MAJOR upgrade over Sheppard for me to consider him at 10 in this draft, especially considering that he wouldn't help the pass rush.

This "Easley love" is ridiculous. He has ZERO catches in the NFL, he was a one year starter at "football power" U Conn and he was a 4th round draft choice. Someone, PLEASE tell me why there is this optimism about Easley being the answer as a legitimate #2 WR. I get that Easley is a guy to root for and I get that he hasn't been healthy, but I don't understand the blind optimism. Heck, folks here BURIED CJ Spiller because he was playing behind the Bills' best offensive player (Fred Jackson) and didn't get a chance until Jackson got hurt.

Unfortunately, when he leaves it IS over and all the decent FAs that the Bills might have targeted are long-gone. I am not blaming the Bills front-office for this. I am confident that they came strong with money or Williams wouldn't have been here in the first place, nor would he have stayed so long. This is about the legacy of horrible football since the last Super Bowl run and the location. I love Buffalo and Western New York. I have spent 51 years here, but it isn't for every one.

I'm not sure how you were able to conclude that I am happy with the Bills' drafts over the last decade, but no of course not. I was simply saying that it isn't realistic to expect any team to routinely find stars in each of the 1st,2nd and 3rd rounds. Even the mighty Pats miss on early picks sometimes.

I disagree with the expectation that you should be able to find "difference makers" with all or most 2nd and 3rd round picks. You *hope* that you find good players in those rounds, of course. However, the reality is that if you get a solid contributor (doesn't have to be a star) in rounds 2 and 3, you are doing well. Heck, even in the first round, if you get a solid starter you have done well. I randomly grabbed the first round of the 2007 draft. Have a look at it and, yes, there are some great players, but there are a ton of outright busts including #1 overall Russel, #4 overall Adams, Jarvis Moss, Brady Quinn and Craig Davis. Many others never became solid starters. 1 Oakland Raiders JaMarcus Russell QB Louisiana State 2 Detroit Lions Calvin Johnson WR Georgia Tech 3 Cleveland Browns Joe Thomas OT Wisconsin 4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Gaines Adams DE Clemson 5 Arizona Cardinals Levi Brown OT Penn State 6 Washington Redskins LaRon Landry SS Louisiana State 7 Minnesota Vikings Adrian Peterson RB Oklahoma 8 Atlanta Falcons Jamaal Anderson DE Arkansas 9 Miami Dolphins Ted Ginn Jr. WR Ohio State 10 Houston Texans Amobi Okoye DT Louisville 11 San Francisco 49ers Patrick Willis ILB Mississippi 12 Buffalo Bills Marshawn Lynch RB California 13 St. Louis Rams Adam Carriker NT Nebraska 14 New York Jets Darrelle Revis CB Pittsburgh 15 Pittsburgh Steelers Lawrence Timmons LB Florida State 16 Green Bay Packers Justin Harrell DT Tennessee 17 Denver Broncos Jarvis Moss DE Florida 18 Cincinnati Bengals Leon Hall CB Michigan 19 Tennessee Titans Michael Griffin FS Texas 20 New York Giants Aaron Ross CB Texas 21 Jacksonville Jaguars Reggie Nelson FS Florida 22 Cleveland Browns Brady Quinn QB Notre Dame 23 Kansas City Chiefs Dwayne Bowe WR Louisiana State 24 New England Patriots Brandon Meriweather DB Miami (Fla.) 25 Carolina Panthers Jon Beason MLB Miami (Fla.) 26 Dallas Cowboys Anthony Spencer OLB Purdue 27 New Orleans Saints Robert Meachem WR Tennessee 28 San Francisco 49ers Joe Staley OT Central Michigan 29 Baltimore Ravens Ben Grubbs G Auburn 30 San Diego Chargers Craig Davis WR Louisiana State 31 Chicago Bears Greg Olsen TE Miami (Fla.) 32 Indianapolis Colts Anthony Gonzalez WR Ohio State

It depends on how the Bills have the top OTs graded. From my favorite sources whom I know do their own scouting and have good connections in the NFL, I only see Kalil and Reiff rated as high as a top 10 pick. There are varying opinions on Martin from Stanford - some feel he would be good value at 10, others seem to feel that he is a better RT option and therefore shouldn't fit in the top 10. After Blackmon, I don't think that any of the WRs are sure enough bets to go as high as #10. I think that Kendall Wright really hurt himself with a slow 40 at the combine and I (personally) don't like Floyd from ND. Floyd has too many off-field concerns that suggest that he could have problems in the NFL for me to take him at 10. If Reiff isn't available at 10, my current thought is that Melvin Ingram could be the pick in spite of his less than ideal height. He is probably the best pass rusher in the draft and has shown outstanding athleticism and versatility. He could be very good in a hybrid 4-3 / 3-4 defense. Still, there is some concern about his height and arm length....

I am in general agreement with you that a player's performance over his college career should be weighed more heavily than his combine performance. However, since players play against different competition, in different schemes with different supporting casts (teammates), scouts can't always be completely sure of what they see on the field. For instance, a player may *look* fast on the field, but is he really fast or is his competition slow (or the scheme/teammates putting him in the position to look fast)? If you don't know exactly how strong a player's opposition is, how can you tell how strong a player is from tape? Granted, the combine drills don't translate directly to football playing ability (for instance, they can't measure how instinctive a player is or how good his on-field decision making is), but they are the only view scouts get of players on a completely level playing field. The things that the combine are useful for (IMHO) include: 1. Confirming a player is as athletic as he looks on the field (or raising a red flag if they aren't) 2. Confirming that a player has put in the effort to train for this event - BIG red flag if they haven't 3. Identify "potential" players - guys that have better athletic ability than they showed in college - perhaps because of scheme or that they were stuck behind a great player for much of their college career. 4. Teams get to interview players (of course they can do that in other venues, too).

I don't think that you should look at it as "3rd best LT vs 1st best WR (or other position)". The two things that matter are how good each individual player is and how they fit with your team's schemes and needs. Heck the 3rd best LT might be better than the best player and most other positions.

I like Upshaw. I think he will be a good solid run-stopping 4-3 DE with very good instincts who will generate occasional pass rush through power and tenacity. Just watching some games of his tells you that he isn't likely to be the premier pass rushing DE that the Bills are missing. I think that the combine just confirmed that he is as described.