OldTimer1960

Ansah looks like a special athlete, but buyer-beware: BYU did not even expect him to be a starter this year. He got the starting position when the player ahead of him was injured. To be sure, that doesn't mean that Ansah won't be good or even very good, but it is a red-flag to me. Aaron Maybin had EXACTLY the same profile - slotted to be a backup, starter got hurt and Maybin stepped in and rang up a lot of sacks and was drafted high. We know how that ended in the NFL. Was Ansah's success because teams had no tape on him to see his tendancies? With some playing time will the opponents figure out how to contain him or will he improve with experience?

I am not saying that Manuel will be good or bad, but the argument that "everything else can be coached" is untrue, in my opinion. I think that the points that you listed are pretty much necessary, but not sufficient for success. I think the intangibles of leadership, work-ethic and importantly the ability to see and quickly process what is happening on the field are also necessary. The latter is mental quickness and it is akin to physical quickness. I don't think that those abilities can be coached-in or taught. Good coaching can help a guy improve these skills, but if a guy can't see and process quickly coaching won't make that much better (again, my opinion). If a guy isn't a leader, in college, he likely isn't going to "grow into one".

but they will be wrong, unless you are talking #8 in round 3. Just because 4 QBs might be picked in round 1 does not mean that any of them are likely to be good NFL starting QBs. IMHO, none of these guys are good prospects (look at the 2011 draft where Ponder and Locker were questionable early picks, but both are as good or better than the guys in this draft). Reaching and hoping for a QB out of this draft is a waste of time and a waste of a high draft choice. Find a good player at another position, try to get a stop-gap veteran (who is likely better than any of these questionable prospects) and try for a truly good QB prospect next year after 3-4 teams waste early picks on guys this year.

I haven't seen anything that says he CAN play qb at the NFL level other than he is allegedly tough. Hell, Fitz and Trent were tough. Both got up after hellacious hits and kept trying. They just weren't good enough to win with. Joe Kaap and Bobby Douglas were tough too. I am sure Tim Tebow is as tough or tougher than Tyler Wilson and he can't play either.

Manuel is not a good prospect to be a good starting NFL QB (and neither are any of the other QBs in this draft). No matter how much the Bills need a QB, taking one of these weak prospects is not an answer. If they choose to take GOOD prospects at other positions in rounds 1 & 2 then draft 2 or 3 QBs in the hopws of finding someone who can play, then fine, but this draft is not like the most recent 2 where there were good QB prospects. Not one of these frauds would have been in the top 5 qb prospects in the last 2 drafts

If your speculation is true (ie, he made a "business" decision to stay out of harms way, then that is MAJOR red flag. Deon Sanders talks about DBs making "business" decisions to not take on big blockers or RBs. He is partly joking and partly serious. For sure, a great CB is paid more to be a good cover man than to be a good tackler. That is NOT true of a LB. If a college LB is avoiding contact to preserve himself, he has no place in the NFL. That being said, I am not saying that you are necessarily right with your assessment of T'eo. It is possible (again not saying it IS) that he was just very distraught and distracted due to the impending explosion of this story to play well. That isn't great, either and personally I'd not take a chance on him, but it is possible that he will be a very good pro.

I can't say for sure that Kirk Cousins might not become a good starting QB, but there is too much hype for him (IMHO). He has 4TDs, 3INTs, 1 Fumble, and been sacked 3 times (once every 16 pass attempts). Yes, he showed a bit of potential, but I think way too early to be banging our heads because we didn't get him.

From ProFootballTalk.com: http://profootballta...all-draft-pick/ Chiefs are saying the talent in this draft is significantly inferior to last year's draft.... “That’s one of those drafts that come along every two decades, maybe every three decades, when you have that many impact players,” Dorsey said. At a time when they want to drum up enthusiasm, they feel that the draft is weak enough that they need to temper fans' expectations. Just an interesting article.

I haven't formed an opinion about Nassib one way or another (nor am I fully qualified to do so), but just because he played for Marrone/Hackett at Syracuse doesn't mean that: 1. The Bills offense will be the same scheme they ran at Syracuse 2. That Nassib is good enough to play in the NFL, even if they run the same system as Syracuse did. 3. Even if he is good enough, no guarantee that it won't take him considerable time to learn to read NFL defenses and adapt the the increased talent level of the opponents. We know that Fitz is not quite good enough to get this team to the playoffs, but that doesn't mean that any of a large number of rookies from this class are as good or better than Fitz (immediately or ever).

Agreed. Even more importantly, Smith reportedly is a mature kid who works hard to improve. Leaf, on the other hand, was a totally immature dweeb who had probably equivalent physical talent to Smith. To be clear, I am not advocating for Geno Smith, but I think he is way above the Ryan Leaf comparisons.

I just replied above, but specifically to the edited point: I don't think that you can disregard what your scouts and front-office evaluate. This is a matter of "shades of gray". There are prospects this year who have some chance to become a good starting NFL QB. Perhaps their probability of doing so isn't rated as high as some of next year's (or last year's) prospects, but there is some chance of success. This is true of all prospects, regardless of position. As always, they will have to balance taking a shot at the ever-important QB position vs taking a player that they rate higher at another position. This year, I think that they do need to take at least 1 and maybe 2 shots at a QB after round 1, but I would not like to see them take a QB in round 1 or 2 over a player at another position whom they rate much higher. Desperately grasping for a QB has a high probability of wasting a pick that could have been used on a better player at another position.

Usually, I wouldn't agree with this view, but I now agree. Take 2 QBs in the mid-late rounds and hope. Make a quick decision on them (by next year's draft) and swing again on a higher-rated prospect next year if this year's picks don't pan out. My only caveat is to try to find a competent veteran to play until they get lucky and find a young QB that can be good for years to come. I'm thinking Alex Smith or (to a lesser extent) Matt Flynn. I'd consider Kyle Orton, if available. I'd rather not take a wild shot on a questionable prospect early this year, but after round 1 if they pick any of the guys and take a shot, I'd still like to see a vet available to start this year.

I wouldn't want to trade *much* for Flynn. He hasn't proven anything yet, except that he had a good game at an opportune time. Same could be said for Frank Reich way-back-when, but teams weren't lining up to trade for him.

Taking Nassib is way over-hyped. Pete Carroll coached at USC, yet he didn't go trade for Matt Leinart or Matt Cassell. Chan Gailey coached a bunch of players at GT, yet they didn't draft Stephen Hill (or any other GT player that I know of).

So many talk about the "developmental" QB. What does "develop" a QB mean? It surely doesn't mean take a guy that does not have the physical talent/skills to play at the NFL level and "teach" him to be a star. I think "developing" a QB is a misnomer. What it really means is: take a shot on some guy mid-to-late in the draft and get lucky that everyone mis-evaluated him (ie, he is way better than anyone thought) and then take credit for "developing" him. To be clear, I think that coaching and experience do play some important role in QB play, but I don't think that you can "coach up" a guy that doesn't have "it". "It" consists of at least a minimal level of NFL physical skills and a bunch of intangibles that are very difficult to assess including: leadership, work-ethic, desire, toughness, quick-decision making, "game intelligence", confidence and probably some other things.

I hope that you are right and that Buffalo has one of them!

Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Tom Brady and Joe Montana are/were all super-star QBs who don't possess world-beating physical qualities (to be sure, better than good enough but not "great"). What Manning, Brady and Brees have is the smarts, work-ethic, leadership and natural ability to quickly process what they see. They augment that with a strong-enough arm and excellent accuracy. John Elway and Steve Young had top physical tools (arm strength, size, speed), but many of the "best" don't. I think it is difficult to draft QBs because those things that make Manning, Brees, Brady and Montana special are hard to measure/quantify. In particular, the ability to quickly process and react to what they see is rarely even called upon for many college QBs who play on teams whose talent far exceeds that of their opposition (eg USC), because they have "all day" in the pocket and their receivers are so good that they are usually throwing to guys that are open by 5 yards rather than the 5 inches that they'll have to deal with in the NFL.

Interesting point. I am sure that the the situation, coaching and talent level that a QB is drafted into has to have some effect on the success of the QB. I would guess, though, that the potential is more that an otherwise good QB could be messed up by a bad situation/coaching rather than that a not-so-good QB could succeed wildly because of coaching/talent around him. I don't mean to say that it is black and white, but that would be my guess. To Buffalo's situation: Positives: Provided that they can resign Levitre and Wood is healthy, I think the OL is a positive. The RB situation looks very strong. If Pettine can get what I think is a talented D to play well, that can be a big positive. All of these can lighten the load on a young QB (none of which Losman had the luxury of having). Negatives: I would say that the Bills' WRs/TEs are in the bottom 25% of the league, especially with Campbell facing a long recovery from knee surgery. A very young/inexperienced OC may struggle, particularly with helping a rookie QB learn about the NFL. A fan-base starving for success and the rare success of some recent QB draft classes may lead to a tremendous amount of pressure on a young QB to succeed immediately. In spike of some recent examples to the contrary, it still usually takes young QBs years to grow into the job in the NFL. Overall, I think it is about a neutral/slightly positive situation for a young QB. If I thought that there was a potential good starting QB in the draft, I wouldn't let the Bills' current situation deter them from picking one. I don't really know, but I don't *think* the QB prospects are very good this year. I guess, I'd prefer to see them go after a veteran guy that can start indefinitely while they look for a really good young QB prospect over the next 2-3 years. My preferred option would be Alex Smith, depending on the cost to get him. After that, Matt Flynn at least showed something but the body of work is really limited. I can't think of many other good options unless Tennessee let Matt Hasselbeck go and he still wanted to play. Beyond those guys, I think you are really scraping the bottom of the barrel, but with the apparent dearth of good rookie prospects that might be what they are stuck with. Regardless, I think that they need to at least take a shot at a QB somewhere in the 1st 3 rounds of the draft. However, I think (from what I've read) that this year is more a "swing and hope" rather than "choose your future start QB".

There is a reasonably good chance that there are zero future NFL starting QBs in this draft. I don't understand the "just wait until later in the draft, there are plenty of future star QBs available". Here is a look at the QBs from drafts 1999-2012. Yes, there are a couple of great years, but most times you are lucky to find 1-2 good starting QBs in an entire draft: 1999: 1 good starting QB (D. McNabb), 4 first round wash-outs (Tim Couch, Akili Smith, Daunte Culpepper, Cade McNown), 1 bad 2nd round pick: Shaun King 2000: 1 miraculous 6th pick (Tom Brady) 1 decent starting QB in round 1(Chad Pennington), 1 OK starter from 6th round (Marc Bulger) 2001: 1 tremendous pick (Drew Brees 2nd), 1 troubled good starter (Michael Vick), 2 2nd round washouts(Quincy Carter, Marques Tuiasosopo) 2002: 1 decent starter (4th round pick David Garrard), 3 1st round misses (David Carr, Joey Harrington, Patrick Ramsey) 2003: 1 good starter (1st Carson Palmer), 3 first round misses (Byron Leftwich, Kyle Boller, Rex Grossman) 2004: Great year (E Manning, P Rivers, B Roethlisberger), Matt Schaub (3rd), missed on JP Losman (1st) 2005: Great pick (A Rodgers), OK starter (Alex Smith), miss: Jason Campbell 2006: 1 OK starter (Jay Cutler), 2 1st round misses (Vince Young, Matt Leinart), 2 2nd round misses (Kellen Clemens, Tarvaris Jackson) 2007: 0 good starters, 2 1st round busts (Jamarcus Russell, Brady Quinn), 3 2nd round picks (Kevin Kolb, John Beck, Drew Stanton) 2008: 2 quality starters (Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco), 2 2nd round misses (Brian Brohm, Chad Henne) 2009: 2 good starters (Matt Stafford, Josh Freeman), 1 looks like a bust (Mark Sanchez), 2nd round miss (Pat White) 2010: 1 good starter (Sam Bradford), 1 1st miss (Tebow), 1 2nd miss (Jimmy Clausen) A little early to tell on some of the following: 2011: Cam Newton looks very good, Jake Locker (jury is out), Blaine Gabbert (on his last chance), Christian Ponder (jury is out), Andy Dalton (looks good, but weak playoff game), Colin Kaepernick (looks great so far) 2012: Luck, Griffin and WIlson look great so far, jury is out on Tannehill and Weeden

Ahh, but what if all of the rookies are really nobodies (as advertised)? Then you are stuck with Fitzpatrick for yet another year (and while I hold him in high regard for his effort, he isn't a good starting NFL QB). I think this is a recipe to get the Defense to quit again, just as it appears they did last year. When the QB isn't good enough, it is hard for the D to really fight with everything they have.

So, to be clear, which of the 6 or 7 certain all-star NFL QBs should the Bills take in this year's draft? Of course, if there are that many certain future Pro-Bowl QBs, I agree with the idea of "let's just draft one of 'em".

Agreed, but it doesn't look like any of the QBs in this draft are the long-term answer either.

I agree. I think the Bills have a very good level of DL talent and in the secondary (assuming they can keep Jairus Byrd). They need LB help and coaching help. They underachieved very considerably last year. I do think that the vanilla scheme that was run hurt them badly. As Pettine said, you have to disguise what you are doing. Offenses do it all the time, why wouldn't a defense do it? Most of the good defenses do a good job of confusing the offense.

You may be right to say that there will be good starting QBs to come out of the draft, but it might really be as bad a year as the "experts" feel. 2-3 good starting QBs coming out in a single draft is really a very good year. There are plenty of years where no good starting QBs emerge from an entire draft. For instance, look at the 8 year period from 1990-1997. Here are the starting QBs that came out in those 8 years: Excellent Starters: Brett Favre Drew Bledsoe Steve McNair Mark Brunell OK Starters: Neil O'Donnell Trent Dilfer Gus Frerotte Kerry Collins Jake Plummer In that same 8 years, here are all the QBs drafted in rounds 1 and 2: Rnd 1 Jim Druckenmiller Steve McNair Kerry Collins Heath Shuler Trent Dilfer Drew Bledsoe Rick Mirer David Klingler Tommy Maddox Dan McGuire Todd Marinovich Jeff George Andre Ware Rnd 2 Jake Plummer Tony Banks Todd Collins Kordell Stewart Matt Blundin Tony Sacca Brett Favre Browning Nagle So, only 4 very good starting QBs came out of 8 consecutive drafts. 5 more "OK" guys whom might compare reasonably with Alex Smith also came out during that time - but those guys fall into the "they're OK, but their team was always looking to replace them category". Beyond those, there were a host of guys taken in the first 2 rounds that didn't pan out at all. They were drafted high because teams desperately needed QBs. In 1999, the following QBs were taken in the first round: Tim Couch, Donovan McNabb, Akili Smith, Daunte Culpepper and Cade McNown. Shaun King was the only 2nd rounder. 1 of those 6 turned out to be pretty good. There are dry-spells and there are drafts where multiple good QBs come out. I think that you have to trust your evaluation of the players coming out and balance that with taking a "shot" on a QB reasonably often. Here is a link to NFL.com where there is a list of QBs drafted by year and round. I think looking at it, most will conclude that there are very few good starting NFL QBs in most drafts and it is very difficult to find them. http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/fulldraft?type=position

I am not saying that they shouldn't draft a QB, just that they need someone (besides that rookie) to start this year and perhaps longer. From everything that I have seen and read, there are no really good "rookie gunslingers" coming out in this draft. It happens - some years there are no good NFL QB prospects in the draft. What we've seen recently with strong QB drafts is the exception rather than the rule.