OldTimer1960

There was a lot of hype around the receipt class and it looks very good, but it may have been over-hyped a bit.

I guess mine aren’t either!

Everyone’s highlights are good.

This is the real issue. I’ve heard talk radio playing up “they have 11 picks” stuff, but the total “draft capital” they have isn’t that high. Those late 4ths, and 5ths are not going to move them up very far unless you bundle 3 for 1. There are 66 picks between the Bills’ 2nd round pick at 60 and their next pick late in round 4.

Yes, his Combine performance was bad. His gauntlet was poor, but what caught my attention more was seeing him fall 2x on cuts while running routes against air. I know that his tape was better than that, but the combination of that and being only 175lbs is a concern. I would not touch him at 28, but maybe late 2nd. Still, where would a 6’2” 175lb WR who is mainly a straight line route runner play?

I can certainly believe that.

Worthy will be a dangerous weapon, but at 165lbs he is too small for a 1st round pick, in my opinion.

Question is, who is WR1b? It appears to be a class that has 3 excellent prospects at the top (Harrison, Nabers, Odunze), the 1 guy in the next tier (Thomas Jr). Beyond them, I think the candidates that have potential to be “wr1” (whatever that is) are Mitchell and maybe Coleman (but I’m not even sure Coleman will be good in the league). While I love McConkey he may be more complimentary as I think Legette probably is (Legette is explosive and powerful, I don’t know that he will be a high volume receiver). I think Worthy will be dangerous, but not wr1 at his size. Likewise, I don’t see Franklin or Walker as lead wr types. Instead of focusing on Diggs’ eventual replacement, I think they should be looking to have a group that works together among Kincaid, Samuel, Diggs and Shakir and Knox. The missing element now is the big boundary guy who can threaten deep and make the contested catches - ability to be a red zone jump ball guy is a plus.

I loved watching tape of McConkey - great route runner who is really fun to watch. But, would he not be operating in mostly the same space that Kelce does? Now, I could see them drafting him with an eye towards 2025 when Kelce has probably retired. It’s tons of fun to discuss these scenarios!

That could all be right, but I wonder if we as a fan base have come to be overly obsessed with WR. KC has Rashee Rice who had a nice rookie year and just signed Brown. They still have TE Kelce who was dominant in the playoffs. You could be right that they will load up at WR, but if I were them, I’d fortify another position. I think the Bills’ position is a bit different in that Diggs might be on the decline, whereas Rice and Brown are both young and Kelce could be near the end, but did not look like that when it counted last year.

Do you still think KC wants to jump the Bills now that they have signed Marquise Brown? I would say that would take them out of that mindset, but of course I don’t know that.

I don’t know about Coleman. I’m not the “he has to run 4.4 to be good” guy, but Coleman’s speed is pretty questionable for round 1 and while he is smooth, he lacks the lateral quickness to really shake coverage - of course those are just my unqualified opinions.

The DL depth and Safety position need to be addressed for sure. If they don’t add at least a viable backup DT and a vet Safety who could start if he had to, then I think we will see trades made to allow them to add this and a WR. Maybe it’s a trade down from 28 to get more ammo to trade up later or may it’s stand pat at 28, but move up in the 2nd or try to get back into the 3rd. As the roster stands today, I don’t think they will want to leave day 2 without addressing WR, DT (or DE) and S - they don’t have 3 picks in day 1 and 2 and that is what I think they will try to do. I mean it would be nice to leave day 2 with Legette or Mitchell (if they are satisfied that he isn’t a loafer) and maybe a candidate to start at S, but then you’re watching 69 players go before your next pick which would almost be forced to be a DL late in the 4th that will have to play a lot of snaps.

I think the list you laid out are the narrowed down candidates. With the signing of Samuel, they filled a need for a proven vet with speed, but did nothing to add size and strength to play the boundary. If they still want a bigger boundary guy it seems to me that there are only a few in this draft: Mitchell, Legette, Coleman and maybe you could add Polk to that list. Later, they might consider Walker, Javon Baker or Brenden Rice. I suspect that the Samuel signing lowers the interest in smaller options like McConkey, Worthy, Franklin and Roman Wilson. Some of them are very good prospects, but they lack the size that I would think they are after now. I am not saying that they will completely rule out these guys, but rather I think they want to fill the “power forward” spot on their offense. The counter to my point here is Miami who really only has 2 5’10” receivers in Hill and Waddle.

They have had Diggs who has been top part of the league and they added Kincaid last year. I know the narrative is that they have ignored Allen, but those two were big investments and an argument can be made that you are paying Allen to be able to elevate lesser receivers. I am not saying that they should not draft a receiver early, only that the cupboard hasn’t been completely empty.

I think the signing of Samuel really narrows down the WR candidate field in the draft. They now have three receivers without great size and nobody with a strong body and above average height and speed. I would think that makes guys like Worthy, McConkey, Franklin and Wilson less attractive to the Bills. If they really want a big X, it would seem to come down to only a few who fit that description: Mitchell, Legette, Coleman, maybe Polk or Walker or Rice. I yield to others who know how to evaluate tape better than I do. What are your thoughts? What do you think of DeJean? If he has to play S in the NFL, would it be a little rich for one at 28 given that the league seems to not want to pay safeties?

I think waiting until late 4th for WR would leave them with not much. It is a strong class, but the top 12 or more will likely be gone by the end of the 2nd, surely by late 4th.

I think CB is a possibility to brace for. DeJean has CB experience, but might play S in the league. I would be a little surprised if they took a S in the 1st given the low $ the league is paying for the position.

But, in spite of the volume of picks, it isn’t a lot of “draft capital” those late 4ths and 5ths are not worth a lot in trades and, while Beane has found some pretty good players late, they won’t fix all the holes in the D with them, either. I think trade down early and trade up strategically in 4th, 5th, 6th if there are a few guys left that they like. Exactly- it’s worth about a late 2nd this year.

In my opinion, that would be a bad pick. Go find video of Franklin falling twice running routes against air at the combine and watch him struggle through the “gauntlet” drill. He is also only 175lbs. Now, I acknowledge that doesn’t erase what he accomplished last year, but combined that would leave him off my list of options for round 1. Maybe at 60, I’d take him. I hope you’re right, but I think you’re underestimating how much they will miss their rotational guys (Floyd, Phillips, Settle, and I think I’m forgetting someone.)

Down is the play, in my opinion. Unless they pull a miracle in FA, the defense is going to take a step back this year - if Miller doesn’t return to some form close to what he was for the Bills before his injury, defense could be pretty bad. I would really need to be sure of the guy I want to trade next year’s 1st because it could be considerably higher than 28 next year.

This year’s first plus next year’s first might get them to around pick 15 which isn’t high enough to get Harrison, Odinze or Nabers. It *might* get you Thomas jr

There are at least a dozen WRs in this draft who would help the Bills, but not all of them would complement Diggs, Kincaid and Shakir. Finding a big, fast outside guy to hopefully be better than Davis was is hard. I think of the top WRs it is really Mitchell, Coleman and Legette that fit that bill. Of that group, I would exclude Coleman - he could be dominant, but I would hope for someone who can get open and he hasn’t shown that and he lacks top end speed. In spite of the current hype around him, I think he will languish on the board until late 2nd. That, for me, would leave the decision in round 1 to Mitchell or Legette or trade down or pick another position.

Excellent explanation - thank you.

Agreed, but “better than Gabe” hopefully is not the bar to clear at 28. To be clear, I’m not saying I don’t like Legette, but 28 feels rich for him.