NoSaint
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The criticism of Gailey has definitely subsided. He is very different than Jauron, and he came in and provided an interesting and semi-productive offense.
That's all it took to quell fans tired of the boring, play-not-to lose style the Bills employed for the previous 4 seasons.
The perception is that things were better, even though results on the field were actually a bit worse.
Very reminiscent of when Jauron took over, and cleaned up the loose ship of Mularkey and had Bills fans looking to a bright future.
Or when Mularkey took over for Gregg Williams and had the Bills on the verge of the playoffs as a rookie HC.
Sometimes it's easy to make a good first impression.
My concern with Gailey is what happens the second year. A lot of people are assuming that his offense is just going to get better. To me, that's VERY questionable.
I am of the belief that the easiest time to be an OC is the first time opposing defenses see his team run his new offense. He has a big advantage, as teams don't have tendencies on his new offense. I know Gailey is well traveled and there is a lot of tape on his offenses, but there was no tape of this team with his offense this year.
And it showed. After a dreadful start, they went on a very productive offensive run for much of the season.
I don't think it's a big coincidence that at the end of the year, when the Pats and Jets got a second look........the offense looked HORRIBLE.
That's the way it goes. Take the Pats games every year. Practically every time the Bills have a new OC, they play well in their first meeting with Belichick. Gilbride, Fairchild, Turk...even Alex Van Pelt. All showed well in their first effort against NE.
This is Gailey's challenge. Adapt. Improve. Win. Until he does that, he's done nothing.
The truth of the matter is, he was a big disappointment at Georgia Tech. That trumps his firing in KC. As football programs go, Georgia Tech is a good one in a good recruiting area and they play in a conference that is not as hard to compete in as the SEC. His failure there is an indictment.
Not saying that means he can't succeed. What it means is he has failed at an easier task and has never had any real success in this capacity, as a HC, before.
college can be an indicator, but it is a different beast in a lot of ways. recruiting guys to play for free for four years(or less), and keeping guys who make more then you focused are totally different. the game play is at different speeds too as far as game planning, and disparity in talent can be huge. being a leader of 18 year olds vs being a leader of men that have wives and children. i wouldnt say its a matter of easier vs harder as a head coach, moreso its just different. some personalities, schemes, etc.... dont work in one and do in the other.
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Kinda funny that Nick Fairley went up from 1.5 to 11.5 sacks. Fishy
Weird how people question that about him too.... It doesn't worry you at all? I think it's especially hard for a young DT to dominate at 18-19 as he's still got to get a lot stronger. On the outside you can lean on speed a little bit more.
Just seems worth noting. This is a pretty massive jump in one year. If it was a matter of getting back to 100% physically and mental as some have suggested - it would make sense. Following that thread, has he been at a high level all year? Take any plays off? I love that his sacks weren't bunched against schools with 2 directions and a state in their name. As much as it means something to beat the lower talent at northwestern Alabama state college, I want to see him beat guys on top 25 teams also. He doesn't have to win every day, but it sounds like he did most last year.
Consistent pressure too? Regardless of blocking scheme? Or was he often just taking advantage of flubs when the OT screwed it and he was only chipped by a TE/RB?
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It just seems a little fishy he went from 3 sacks to 16 sacks
It rubs me funny too. Did playing time go up? Get bigger? Faster? New moves? Stop taking plays off? Easier schedule? I truly saw only some this year and nearly nothing last year. Can anyone help account for the jump? Just odd he went from 3 sacks to a guy that few think will fall to a third pick in just one year.
Add to that the lack of talk about him not just here but in general, even though he is top 2-3 everywhere... Just odd. I'd like to get more familiar.
I've heard he's pretty much a 43 end, but some say he could play in the 34- realistic opinions?
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He seems to be the least talked about - anyone see a lot of him? I haven't but worry that he has high bust potential- just a worry.
Just odd that we have dareus, fairley, Peterson, green, miller threads regularly and bowers has gone undiscussed comparatively
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Bowers scares the bejesus out of me. He would be the one pick I'd have a second thought about at #3. I wouldn't poo-poo it, but I'd be holding my breath his entire rookie season until he showed he was going to live up to the hype.
truth.
he might be the flashy guy at the top but i think with that huge potential comes an even bigger potential to bust. i could see him being a guy that gets 2.5 sacks over 3 years even more easily then i can envision him getting 20 in that time. yet alone the 30 hed have to get to justify the contract that a #3 gets.
dareus i think is a gimme as far as fulfilling his potential. i would be very surprised if he didnt perform on level with vets getting paid in that 8-10 mill a year price range like he will be seeing out of that slot. if we can trade back to 5 and get him, great but im not sweating it if we pick him at 3.
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I think you made my case stronger in just one sentence that you stated: Guys like bowers or miller might have more upside but they have huge bust potential too... Why would you use the #3 pick for a guy like Dareus that you even admitted has less upside? Case closed, point reinforced! Thank You..(There is risk in every pick..)
So because they have a chance, however slim, to be great they are automatically ahead of a guy that is expected to be consistently near their possibly higher ceiling. Yea I think bowers could get 100+ sacks in the right setting but I think it's unlikely, and I don't think we have that setting. Maybin might have played ok had he gone straight to a 3-4 team and had time to sit too. I think dareus is about as close to can't bust (barring injury) as you can get. If that means ten years of Seymour-esque play I'm all in on it. I think that bowers could very easily go either way. Does this team roll the dice big on what is the possibility of being slightly better?
You are arguing that because bowers could be better we take him over someone that is probably better?
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Some are a matter of circumstance - ie how many plays do you run inside your own ten.
Shutout is a result of playing against very good teams. Even the worst sb team should be able to get into field goal range once or twice.
Overtime, statistically, is a surprise but I think most players or coaches like to play for the win, not a coinflip in a big game. Could you imagine driving down, not taking your shot and then losing the toss after playing it safe. I think the odds of OT have gone up with the new rules.
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Bad! Stay away!
Giving him big money would be akin to giving walker and dockery big money. Average to below average starter.saints fans a pulling the "maybe he could play RT card cause they've watched him get abused at LT. He just doesn't seem to have the physical or mental game to be near the top of his craft.
If we are spending on a FA lineman, there are better. There's a reason that a team operating at a high-level with a qb in his prime is ok letting there LT test the waters.
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Sorry, but a low ceiling isn't what you want with the 3rd overall pick. The Bills should be looking for either an impact player or a way to trade the pick for someone who wants Green if he falls to that pick.
We are all pretty much going off of information from the draft experts, draft blogs and youtube clips. For the most part it's served us well when you consider the TSW majority wanted Orakpo over Maybin, Clady or Albert over McKelvin (and keeping Greer), and Ngata over Whitner.
Dareus is simply not worth the 3rd pick overall. He should be around the 6th through 10th slot IMO.
His supposed low ceiling is probably higher then anyone on our team currently. His low water mark is probably higher then most of our players ceilings.
Saying he probably isnt Bruce but he is a very safe pick isn't a knock in my book. Yes, green could be the next HOF receiver, but much more likely is an above average starter. Bowers could get 15 sacks, but let's be honest - where was his production before this year? He more then likely is a 3-4 sack guy that COULD be that monster. There's no saying that dareus won't explode but it seems like he is probably just a perennial probowler in the mold of a Richard Seymour, not Bruce smith. Could be better could be worse but I really see him in that role for us if we take him. I'd take that over a boom or bust guy that has a 1/10 shot of being great and a 4/10 shot of never being a probowler. Value is not just going to be talent but also contract paid at our slot and I'm comfortable that dareus will live up to the $$. If we can get him at 5, awesome, if not, oh well.
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I do agree first takes b squad isn't the best but I hardly watch interviews for the interviewer
They make such a difference. When you can sequence intelligent questions and it becomes a convo instead of awkward clunky soundbites it's much more enjoyable. A good interviewer can make a boring person highly interesting and the reverse can be said for Sir Charles. Some of the interviews with espns fill in guys at 10am are just absolutely painful lol
So Stevie, you play football right? Is buffalo cold? Do you still blame Jesus? What have you done to get in his good graces for next year? Do you think you'll tweet things like that again? Speaking of twitter, who do you follow on there? Isn't the word tweet a funny word- odd that such manly football players tweet isn't it? Oh yea football... How about the twitter reaction to jay cutler?
::Bangs head into wall::
Last week they were astonished that Rodgers belt celebration was a championship belt and not him putting on his six shooters. They spent 20 mins on how he hid it's meaning so well and how other players would be insulted. Kris jenkins just looked at them like "are you serious"
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For what he did in his first year in this offense I can only think he'll have a great second year. Give him a TE and a defense that gives him the ball more often and a pro bowl could be in his future. Drew brees doesn't have a big arm, but he is dominating, it can be done.
Drew is one of the best downfield throwers in the league when healthy. I guess, other then because he's our guy, I don't see why people think he's going to jump into that top ten grouping. I think people forget just how many really good qbs are in this league. Could he move from that 20-25 range down into the 15-20 range? Certainly but I just don't see how he could ever make it into the top ten talks. The guys are just as smart and much more athletically gifted. There's a reason drew went 32 and fitz went 230 something. His arm is much better
Peyton
Brady
Brees
Rodgers
Big ben
Rivers
Matt Ryan
Schaub
Vick
Being a top quarter-third that I dont think he fits in, even on his best days.
Then there are guys like flacco, romo, Eli - all much more proven, but I could foresee fitz fans saying that they have warts too. If they fall off and fitz jumps up it's possible one of them could be behind fitz but I'd still take any of them straight up and even send some extra if a trade was there. No?
Then young guys like Freeman and Bradford. Can't say they are top 10 yet, but they look like they are moving up the list much faster then fitz, and neither is on a great team.
Do you think fitz is the only qb behind a bad line? Cause I've seen ben take a heck of a beating even from our awful front 7. Just one example.
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Green Bay and Pittsburgh are the NFL's two top rated defenses...It sure is easy to be a "Franchise QB" with a dominating D, especially if they force turnovers.
If we improve our D, the tune will change concerning what people "know" about Fitz.
You can't teach intelligence, and the post about him staring down receivers is bull ****. He is going to make average to below average receivers a lot of money in this league. Harvard is constantly talked about, but this guys intelligence is not even in the same league as most guys in the NFL...if you give him another year, he will make many believers.
Are we arguing that fitz ben and Rodgers are in the same discussion if not for the D? Would you even think twice about trading fitz, AND a high pick for either of those guys?
You could argue the counter that a great qb would help our d- not playing on a short field, playing with a lead etc.... The two sides feed off each other for sure, but much like our D, our qb position is undermanned if we want to be contenders.
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Thing is - good teams draft for more then 6 months out typically. If you are picking at 26 and need that guy to be a day one starter something has gone terribly wrong. Or you are Seattle!
At those spots you are looking at playoff teams assembling talent for the long term.
Just for reference (going offhand) nola, minny and NYJ all took nicklebacks, Indy drafted a 3rd DE - for the final four teams last year. Keep in mind these teams couldn't even chase FAs last year and the still drafted depth.
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Awesome..another reply that I really agree with! I'm more up on Fairley, and Bowers knowledge wise..but I've read somewhere before that Quinn is a physical freak of some sort..maybe I'm wrong about that? I don't follow college as closely as the NFL but I try to keep up on the bigger names. I realize that Quinn was out to pasture for a year so maybe that's why I lack an opinion on him. I was thinking you could probably move down to the 6-10 range and get Quinn and pickup a second rounder to fill another need. If some think Quinn may be a risk at least you'd be getting an extra pick with the possibility that Quinn may turn into the next Bruce Smith! Hmmmmm..a lot to consider? But, I just don't think Dareus will develop into more than an above average player at best in the NFL so hopefully the Bills will not outsmart themselves once again!
I guess I just don't understand how you haven't even begun to address the fact that he's a multi year player, has shown up biggest in his biggest games, and fits our system better then anyone else. Not to mention he's coming out of bama where he played against top competition, and had a top defensive program and strength program to grow in. Guys like bowers or miller might have more upside but they have huge bust potential too. You reference fairley bowers and now Quinn but knock dareus as a one year wonder - when he's the only multi year contributor... Just doesn't make sense.
I will say I don't see him as a HOF player but I think part of that is he will be doing dirty work. Setting the edge, taking on two blockers and tackles at but not behind the line tend not to get you HOF recognition.
I do see his Career range bracketed between 10 year starter and multiple probowls -- some of the other guys have the wider net of out of the league in five years through HOF.
I really see fairley, dareus and green as the only 3 options and hope for a big body.
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Fitz is an average NFL Starter. We could do alot worse (and have lately)
Until we have that better Player Fitz is my quarterback and im going to support him and his Harvard Degree!
HARVARD FOOTBALL!!!
I definitely think he is valuable to this team, and likely our best option this year. I just don't like how easy it is to rattle off 10-15 names you couldn't even begin to argue he is better then. I'll go as far as to ask the one poster which of the 8-10 guys I named that he reads a defense better then, as that is his strength. They all have better stronger arms, better accuracy, and read defenses better.
Granted he is a better option then a handful of guys, I'd in a heartbeat trade our qb group for about 20 others without question. We are debating his ability as compared to Orton, Campbell, garrard etc.... Not any of the guys I named and could go on to add Freeman, Ryan, cutler, Eli, Vick, cassel, flacco and round out the top half without seeing anyone we could discuss him as an upgrade over. Romo? Bradford? I'd take either over fitz. Even Palmer I'd take in a straight up trade. I feel comfortable saying that Sanchez will have a better career (keep in mind he's very young - coming out early with... 10? Starts in college).
I think he can lead us to 9-10 wins with a good team and some bounces coming our way. I like if we draft a qb, that there is no pressure to rush him.
We are in better shape then teams like Arizona, Carolina, and San Fran. Not a fan of henne. Hassleback is getting pretty far gone. That leaves us in that meaty area of TJack, garrard, orton, Campbell, stafford (can he stay healthy), mcnabb (both could give you 2 years of 58% completions football while looking for the future) if you want to get to a starting point to rank him objectively.
That said, we could do much worse.
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Nice article in the B-News today about Capers and LeBeau and the development of the 3-4 defense when they were together in Pittsburgh in '92. Towards the end of the article you'll find this quote by Lebeau:
"Any maneuver you can implement that keeps a QB [from getting] a dead read on you is what you're looking for...You've got to at least level the playing field enough that they have to gather information after the snap or at least as close to the snap as you can keep it. If they know before, you don't have much chance."
This is one of Fitz's strengths, reading and reacting. A big strong-armed QB can only get you so far if he doesn't have the smarts or experience to read where the blitz is coming AND quickly go through his progressions. It's extremely rare to find a QB who has it all. Fitz has yet to play a full season as the starter. While he has some weaknesses, he has the smarts to take the Bills to playoffs. I expect to see the offense take another leap forward in the second year of the Fitz/Chan (Chitz?) era. Build the defense in the off-season (put the 3-4 pieces in place) and the Bills could find a playoff spot next year.
Knowing where to throw the ball is only part of the puzzle - you need the arm to get it there quickly and accurately. Fitz is a bottom third starter, and his harvard degree doesn't mean he's outsmarting lebeau. I like him, but much more as a mentor and backup once we find someone that can be top third. I think guys like Brady manning brees Rodgers rivers and big ben do just as well or better reading defenses but have the arms to back it up. We shouldn't settle for less.
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i dont understand the whole blocking of these sites, you still see the commercials, which is all that matters to the nfl
Doesn't reflect in ratings, can't charge when selling the commercials
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i see that you like the maybin comparisons, but i dont see them myself.
as a one year wonder, i must point to that sophomore season where he only started 4 games but had 6.5 sacks playing in a 3-4 D-line, which put him 8th in the SEC. Not bad for a backup in a 3-4 scheme. Also a huge performance in the BCS championship.
maybin was terribly undersized, dareus is big enough to play inside or out.
i also know its high school, but dareus put up more sacks in his senior year then maybin did in his junior and senior combined. i wouldnt normally bring that up but you are correct, maybin otherwise only has one year of comparison before being drafted.
just some stuff to think of for the other side of the argument.
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I am not trying to jockey for any one QB. I like Fitz. But for the sake of argument I like Kapernick because he is a local boy for me and is very mobile. I also liked Ponder during the senior bowl (what little bit I watched). I don't think there are any clear cut starting qbs that will contribute immediately in this year draft.
If I worked the front office for the bills I would spend the entire draft on o-line, and front 7 defense.
My reasoning for posting this was to try to show that there are/were qbs in the league that have slower throwing motions. That's all.
Understood. I suppose my point was there are guys that are big/small, tall/short, smart/not, fast/slow... The thing is for any weakness you must be exceedingly strong somewhere else. Even without a glaring weakness you need to have special attributes, so adding even more to the list needed can in fact matter.
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...Aaron Maybin?
Can only hope. He certainly wasn't a 43 end, and only has one year ever playing lb, and didn't have great coaching, supporting cast or mentorship at the new position. Can only hope adding merriman, and wanny and some talent in the front 7 will all help him along. I worry that Timmons atleast had size so he wasn't playing from as far behind.
I imagine having a few more big boys up front, a more accomplished coach and a guy to practice with who's done it before (as opposed to Kelsey) can only help. Excuses are running thin.
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Everyone is trying to key on one attribute that will make the one player that will make this team successful...
Problem is it takes a package. For both the team and individuals you have to be good across the board with a few qualities that are special and no knockout weaknesses.
A qb needs that compact motion as much as he needs height, weight, speed, armstrength, accuracy, work ethic, and leadership. You can make up for one by being exceptional in others but to say one doesn't matter or one is the only thing that matters is silly. A slow throwing motion means he is likely to take more hits. Also means a DB is more likely to get to the ball. Exceptional armstrength or accuracy can neutralize the DB, speed and size can help with the hits, quick reads help with both but to say it doesn't matter is silly. That split second is going to need to be made up for somewhere.
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Geez. Don't you people get it? No one, particularly scouts, give a flying !@#$ if any team was "prepared to play" or who wins a dumb-ass exhibition game. They wanted to get a good look at the kids coming out in the next draft all together and feel Gailey wasted this opportunity while the other coach did not. That is what they were bitching about. They are scouting the kids, not the coaches. Get it? Move on.
This couldn't be better for us. Hands on experience, still being able to scout the north, and not giving as much of the south squads secrets to other teams in attendance. Not great relationship building around the league, but good for the draft certainly.
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Instead of the disclaimer you can post something that takes into account reality.
So not only is your post complete and utter nonsense in that it's not likely to happen if there were a CBA in place, it's doubly nonsense because you know it can't actually happen before you posted it. So in Essenes it's a fictional hypothetical that can't possibly come true.
And I'm the one that needs to get a Life?
"let's trade all of our defensive players for all of Pittsburgh's defenive players, Big Ben, a unicorn and their first , you think they'll do it? "
Genius . . .
One thing I've heard for a guy like kolb- handshake agreement for a 2012 pick, send him a playbook, and see what you can do to be ready should the CBA drag
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Move it back to the week after the superbowl - I like the winner wins the coin toss the following year... Or less likely but if they win they get the ball first in OT. Kinda like homefield advantage in the world series. Real stakes and the players don't know, it could be them in the superbowl the following year.
that said, I don't want the changes but I think it's the only way to get the players and coaches to buy in
The AJ Green dilemma
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
So everyone other then fairley and green is marginal? rough draft. What if both are off the board? Are we counting on the panthers or broncos to flub and pick a marginal player instead of these two elites? Sounds like we could be really screwed being forced to pay a marginal talent 10m a year.
Or maybe the third best player will actually be really good too. Come on now.