strive_for_five_guy
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Everything posted by strive_for_five_guy
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Week 17: Bills at Bengals on MNF
strive_for_five_guy replied to Beck Water's topic in The Stadium Wall
Agree, hammer the overs. Opponent, game script and weather all should support Allen needing to throw for more yardage than less. Not to mention he shows up in prime time, like you said. -
Burrow’s O-line isn’t anything to write home about, either. I’m ultimately not worried about narratives flying around about Mahomes or Burrow, versus Josh. If the Bills win on Monday night, everyone will be reminded of Josh’s greatness. The longer the Bills play into the playoffs, the longer the media will talk about Josh versus others that are bounced early.
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Cole is going to be our secret weapon for when we host the Chiefs and brutally blow them!
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I know it’s a pipe dream, but a perfect sequence this weekend would be Chiefs somehow lose to the Broncos, and then we beat the Bengals to clinch the 1 seed already. Isn’t Von big on speaking things into existence?
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Week 17: Bills at Bengals on MNF
strive_for_five_guy replied to Beck Water's topic in The Stadium Wall
Correct, that was my only point the whole time. CincyBillsFan had questioned you about how much the one seed really matters. -
Week 17: Bills at Bengals on MNF
strive_for_five_guy replied to Beck Water's topic in The Stadium Wall
Should be, but some need more spoon feeding than others. -
Week 17: Bills at Bengals on MNF
strive_for_five_guy replied to Beck Water's topic in The Stadium Wall
Agreed my initial example was as simple as possible. I‘ll spice up the approach for you. Let’s say a home team’s advantage is an extra 5% chance of winning (55%). In addition, let’s say a higher seed is on average better by an additional 3%, per seed differential. So a 1 seed hosting a 2 seed gets an extra 3%, resulting in a 58% chance of winning (50+5+3). Then, let’s say the 1 seed’s path to the Super Bowl is to host the 4 and 2 seed. In the model, the 1 seed has a 64% chance of winning the first game, 58% chance the second. Odds of making the Super Bowl are 37% (even higher than the 25% in my original simple approach). Meanwhile, let’s say the 2 seed would need to beat the 7 seed, 3 seed and 1 seed. Odds to win each game are 70%, 58%, and 42%. Overall odds of making SB are 17%. Even relative to the 2 seed, the 1 seed’s chances of making the SB Bowl are more than double. And this still doesn’t account for the fact that the 1 seed heals up during the bye seed while everyone else further risks injury. Hope this further helps demonstrate why earning the 1 seed is a huge advantage. -
I mean, Josh has been known to unleash pelvic thrusts on opponents.
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Prime Time Josh vs Sunday 1pm Sugar Rush Josh
strive_for_five_guy replied to freddyjj's topic in The Stadium Wall
It is the darkest nights that produce the brightest stars. -
Week 17: Bills at Bengals on MNF
strive_for_five_guy replied to Beck Water's topic in The Stadium Wall
Cool stuff. Not surprising, but Allen’s Big Time Throw %’s are off the charts. Heading into the Cincy game, if there’s a matchup we can exploit, looks like it’s our pass rush versus their O-Line. -
Russell Wilson and His Divisive Entourage
strive_for_five_guy replied to The Frankish Reich's topic in The Stadium Wall
Not surprised. It’s appearing that his “other commitments” are a higher priority than his play on the football field. -
Buy Playoff Tickets Now or Later?
strive_for_five_guy replied to ascalice's topic in The Stadium Wall
Yes, that was the re-sale price. -
Week 17: Bills at Bengals on MNF
strive_for_five_guy replied to Beck Water's topic in The Stadium Wall
Yes, here’s a mathematical way to think about it. Let’s say every game is 50/50. The 1 seed has a 25% chance to make the Super Bowl, whereas the other six teams in a conference have 12.5% chance. This is without adjusting for the extra week of rest and home field advantage. So before even adjusting for those additional benefits, the 1 seed is twice as likely to make the Super Bowl than any other given team. -
Buy Playoff Tickets Now or Later?
strive_for_five_guy replied to ascalice's topic in The Stadium Wall
The prices I’m seeing on Ticketmaster are $700+ right now. The afternoon tickets went on sale, I was seeing minimum of around $1,000 by the time I had a chance to bid (which I passed on). So the prices have settled back down a little, although I’m not sure how much further they will drop for a potential once-in-generation AFCCG. -
Nothing. If Tua didn’t say anything and nobody noticed during the game, who else can be blamed?
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Week 17: Bills at Bengals on MNF
strive_for_five_guy replied to Beck Water's topic in The Stadium Wall
Apparently we never get the Mannings on our MNF games? Would much prefer their perspective over Aikman/Buck. -
Win the Next 5 Games and We Have Our First Super Bowl
strive_for_five_guy replied to ToGoGo's topic in The Stadium Wall
I approve your message. -
Bills open as 1.5 point favorites against Bengals(O/U 49)
strive_for_five_guy replied to Big Turk's topic in The Stadium Wall
His statement about 3 straight home games is accurate. We win, we at least lock up the two seed, which guarantees at least 1st and 2nd round of playoffs at home. But would def be better to up that to the one seed, and just skip 1st round altogether.