strive_for_five_guy

And only.

Agree, hammer the overs. Opponent, game script and weather all should support Allen needing to throw for more yardage than less. Not to mention he shows up in prime time, like you said.

Burrow’s O-line isn’t anything to write home about, either. I’m ultimately not worried about narratives flying around about Mahomes or Burrow, versus Josh. If the Bills win on Monday night, everyone will be reminded of Josh’s greatness. The longer the Bills play into the playoffs, the longer the media will talk about Josh versus others that are bounced early.

Cole is going to be our secret weapon for when we host the Chiefs and brutally blow them!

Totally agree with your points. Hoping it doesn’t play out this way, but if the Chiefs do end up with the 1 seed, they might not get an ultimate reality check until the conference championship hosting either us or the Bengals. Let’s not let them off the hook so easy!

Allen making it to the SB over Mahomes or Burrow this season would force narratives to change. That’s one thing those guys have that he does not.

I think the true test of whether these contracts are failures will be when their fanbases stop renewing season tickets and their revenue plummets. If you were a Broncos fan, how much would you pay to watch that crap?

I know it’s a pipe dream, but a perfect sequence this weekend would be Chiefs somehow lose to the Broncos, and then we beat the Bengals to clinch the 1 seed already. Isn’t Von big on speaking things into existence?

Correct, that was my only point the whole time. CincyBillsFan had questioned you about how much the one seed really matters.

Should be, but some need more spoon feeding than others.

Agreed my initial example was as simple as possible. I‘ll spice up the approach for you. Let’s say a home team’s advantage is an extra 5% chance of winning (55%). In addition, let’s say a higher seed is on average better by an additional 3%, per seed differential. So a 1 seed hosting a 2 seed gets an extra 3%, resulting in a 58% chance of winning (50+5+3). Then, let’s say the 1 seed’s path to the Super Bowl is to host the 4 and 2 seed. In the model, the 1 seed has a 64% chance of winning the first game, 58% chance the second. Odds of making the Super Bowl are 37% (even higher than the 25% in my original simple approach). Meanwhile, let’s say the 2 seed would need to beat the 7 seed, 3 seed and 1 seed. Odds to win each game are 70%, 58%, and 42%. Overall odds of making SB are 17%. Even relative to the 2 seed, the 1 seed’s chances of making the SB Bowl are more than double. And this still doesn’t account for the fact that the 1 seed heals up during the bye seed while everyone else further risks injury. Hope this further helps demonstrate why earning the 1 seed is a huge advantage.

Ah yes, I think that’d be one other possibility (improbable as it would be).

By my tally, Steelers are going to need both the Dolphins and Jets to lose this week, in order to still have playoff hopes by Sunday night. NE and Seattle both COULD win those matchups, although some good battles ahead.

I mean, Josh has been known to unleash pelvic thrusts on opponents.

It is the darkest nights that produce the brightest stars.

Cool stuff. Not surprising, but Allen’s Big Time Throw %’s are off the charts. Heading into the Cincy game, if there’s a matchup we can exploit, looks like it’s our pass rush versus their O-Line.

The irony is that Von only got to play those guys in two games this season. And who knows how long each of them will even be around!

Not surprised. It’s appearing that his “other commitments” are a higher priority than his play on the football field.

Yes, that was the re-sale price.

Yes, here’s a mathematical way to think about it. Let’s say every game is 50/50. The 1 seed has a 25% chance to make the Super Bowl, whereas the other six teams in a conference have 12.5% chance. This is without adjusting for the extra week of rest and home field advantage. So before even adjusting for those additional benefits, the 1 seed is twice as likely to make the Super Bowl than any other given team.

The prices I’m seeing on Ticketmaster are $700+ right now. The afternoon tickets went on sale, I was seeing minimum of around $1,000 by the time I had a chance to bid (which I passed on). So the prices have settled back down a little, although I’m not sure how much further they will drop for a potential once-in-generation AFCCG.

Nothing. If Tua didn’t say anything and nobody noticed during the game, who else can be blamed?

Apparently we never get the Mannings on our MNF games? Would much prefer their perspective over Aikman/Buck.

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