
strive_for_five_guy
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Everything posted by strive_for_five_guy
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Revisiting the Tre White to Safety thread
strive_for_five_guy replied to HOUSE's topic in The Stadium Wall
Playing the Pats will be a nice “get well” week for Tre at CB. -
Week 17: Bills at Bengals on MNF
strive_for_five_guy replied to Beck Water's topic in The Stadium Wall
One of my favorites was when Marv Levy was asked whether a certain game was a must-win. To which he replied, “This is not a must-win. World War II was a must-win”. -
Buffalo News analysis of Tremaine Edmunds this season
strive_for_five_guy replied to dave mcbride's topic in The Stadium Wall
I’d be shocked if Oliver gets an extension before Edmunds. Beane HAS to make a decision on Edmunds this offseason or he’s gone. We still have the 5th year option on Oliver. Given Edmunds is entering his prime years and he’s having his best season, and is essentially the QB of the defense, I’d also be surprised if Beane and McD don’t do everything they can to retain his services. -
Week 17: Bills at Bengals on MNF
strive_for_five_guy replied to Beck Water's topic in The Stadium Wall
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Just realized this, nice Bills AFC stat
strive_for_five_guy replied to dollars 2 donuts's topic in The Stadium Wall
And only. -
Week 17: Bills at Bengals on MNF
strive_for_five_guy replied to Beck Water's topic in The Stadium Wall
Agree, hammer the overs. Opponent, game script and weather all should support Allen needing to throw for more yardage than less. Not to mention he shows up in prime time, like you said. -
Burrow’s O-line isn’t anything to write home about, either. I’m ultimately not worried about narratives flying around about Mahomes or Burrow, versus Josh. If the Bills win on Monday night, everyone will be reminded of Josh’s greatness. The longer the Bills play into the playoffs, the longer the media will talk about Josh versus others that are bounced early.
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Cole is going to be our secret weapon for when we host the Chiefs and brutally blow them!
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I know it’s a pipe dream, but a perfect sequence this weekend would be Chiefs somehow lose to the Broncos, and then we beat the Bengals to clinch the 1 seed already. Isn’t Von big on speaking things into existence?
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Week 17: Bills at Bengals on MNF
strive_for_five_guy replied to Beck Water's topic in The Stadium Wall
Correct, that was my only point the whole time. CincyBillsFan had questioned you about how much the one seed really matters. -
Week 17: Bills at Bengals on MNF
strive_for_five_guy replied to Beck Water's topic in The Stadium Wall
Should be, but some need more spoon feeding than others. -
Week 17: Bills at Bengals on MNF
strive_for_five_guy replied to Beck Water's topic in The Stadium Wall
Agreed my initial example was as simple as possible. I‘ll spice up the approach for you. Let’s say a home team’s advantage is an extra 5% chance of winning (55%). In addition, let’s say a higher seed is on average better by an additional 3%, per seed differential. So a 1 seed hosting a 2 seed gets an extra 3%, resulting in a 58% chance of winning (50+5+3). Then, let’s say the 1 seed’s path to the Super Bowl is to host the 4 and 2 seed. In the model, the 1 seed has a 64% chance of winning the first game, 58% chance the second. Odds of making the Super Bowl are 37% (even higher than the 25% in my original simple approach). Meanwhile, let’s say the 2 seed would need to beat the 7 seed, 3 seed and 1 seed. Odds to win each game are 70%, 58%, and 42%. Overall odds of making SB are 17%. Even relative to the 2 seed, the 1 seed’s chances of making the SB Bowl are more than double. And this still doesn’t account for the fact that the 1 seed heals up during the bye seed while everyone else further risks injury. Hope this further helps demonstrate why earning the 1 seed is a huge advantage.