BADOLBILZ
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Posts posted by BADOLBILZ
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18 minutes ago, Mikey152 said:
Lets try this another way...
6 teams scored more than 50 touchdowns last season on offense. Dolphins, 9ers, Lions, Cowboys, Ravens and Bills.
5 of them were in the top 10 in rushing yards. 5 of them were in the top 10 in passing yards. Cowboys and Ravens were most unbalanced (shocker).
The 2023 Lions are a perfect example of the hypocrisy around skill players. St. Brown is a 6' slot receiver that was drafted in the 4th round, and LaPorta was a 3rd round TE. Their high pick WR has had health issues and put up 24 catches last season. Their #2 WR was a journeyman with 600 yards as his best ever season. And their QB was another teams garbage. They did have two backs almost run for 1k each and two pro bowlers on the Oline.
Heading into the season, that looked like trash. But their offense was one of the best in the NFL and their OC (who runs A LOT) is considered one of the best in the NFL. St. Brown got a massive deal despite being a 4th round pick because he produced in the slot with tons of targets. It's almost like all some guys need is an opportunity and balance can result in a great offense.
No, let's leave it at "were the 2020 Bills WR's a top 3 WR corps" or not?
And the answer is ABSO-F#cking-LUTELY. Do you still disagree?
Try to finish what you start.
They had by far the most receiving yards of any group of NFL WR's in that 2020 season.
I'm not chasing goal posts to help you find an exception that you think proves the Bills should be projected to be where we'd like them to be. You either deal in likelihoods or you go by "feels" and those emotional opinions about what they think will happen aren't a discussion point they are merely a declaration.
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16 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:
What @Rocky Landingis saying though is that a BIG part of their rankings are the unknown. Keon is a rookie where people have been split on him and Shakir just put up an insane YPT, Catch %, and led the Bills in receiving over our final 10 games but we have not seen him in a bigger role and without Diggs here. Samuel who is respected, has never played with Allen or any QB that should be starting in the NFL, yet still has been able to be productive.
And with ESPN ranking the Bills weapons 24th, that again is again factoring in a lot of the unknown from our youth because we haven't seen them post Diggs (or at all yet in Buffalo like Keon, Davis, and Samuel) to reasonably know what to expect this year from them. Kincaid put up 4th most rec by a rookie TE in NFL history last year to go along with Shakir's and Cook's breakouts. But, all of that happened with a Diggs on the roster, so will they keep ascending in bigger roles with Diggs gone is a question yet to be answered. Brady had a strong start in Buffalo, but now its his offense being installed, one where Allen is also learning a new system.
Point is, it is not like they are ranked 24th because the opinion is that Kincaid is not very good...Shakir is not very good...Keon is not very good. They are ranked 24th because those guys who are expected to be the bigger parts of the offense bring potential rather than a proven track record while also having Allen learn now his 3 system in 3 seasons.
But lets look at what we do know...pretty much every receiver the past 4 or 5 years that has been one of our top 3 receivers has put up career highs catching passes from Josh Allen, and the ones who didn't were the ones who were hurt like Crowder and Sanders.
So, saying it is "not very likely" that the WR Corps would rank higher at the end of the season doesn't make a lot of sense to me. Because the rankings and expectations are set low right now because of the unknown, but the odds are that playing with Allen that they will certainly exceed the low expectations being set preseason. I would happily take the over on a bet about where they finish compared to their current ranking either as a WR Corp or as Weapons overall.
Again.........everything is an "unknown". You can't advance a point or be predictive if you dismiss likelihoods in favor of well it's all "unknown".
Half the teams in the NFL picked a WR in the first 2 days of the draft for chrissakes. 7 of them BEFORE the Bills. The Bills are by no means unique in regard to having a rookie that they hope could start right away but for some reason this is supposed to be a compelling point of evidence why the Bills are underrated? Because they got the 8th WR off the board?
And the 24th "weapons" ranking on ESPN doesn't necessarily imply that ALL of the Bills key players are "not very good"..........it's how they are expected to rank against peers. As I've said many times, the league is absolutely LOADED with talented receiving threats. Look at the actual lists and if you don't know who the opposing players are then look up their production and objectively compare it to things like Kincaid averaging a pathetic 9 yards per catch on a healthy 90 targets and explain to me why it's unrealistic how the Bills targets are being characterized.
Also, note that @Rocky Landing says that it's VERY likely that they rank higher. I disagreed. You are attributing his words to me. But the larger point is that there isn't data that suggests it's likely let alone VERY likely. That's all we can work off of. It's not about your offseason "feels".
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2 hours ago, Avisan said:
You are aware that Brady was OC for only 7 games, yes?
In those 7 games, Allen averaged 243.7 passing yards per game, slightly below his season average of 253.3. One of those games was the Cowboys game, where we demolished them by running it down their throat (49 rushes) with a 5.4 YPC average. His passing yardage average the other 6 games was 268.7 yards per game. Extended to a 17 game season, that would be 4,567 yards, which would have been the 7th-most yardage this past season, 10 yards behind #6 and 11 yards behind #7. Even leaving in the Cowboys' game puts them at 17th over a 17 game season.
If the Bills fall outside of the Top 10 because they have more games like the Cowboys game, I think I'm okay with that.
If you spent half as much time double-checking your facts as you did bloviating, we could all save a bunch of time and energy here.
Should we keep you at a guess of 23rd overall or would you like to amend your prediction?
1) You are forgetting the two home playoff games under Joe Brady.
I'm not going to cherry pick because I want as much data as possible to determine the likelihood. Let alone remove dominant, winning results like the Dallas game. That would be asinine. Do we not hope for such games?
2) You are also conflating Josh Allen's individual passing stats(243.7) with team passing stats which subtract sack yardage.
You set the parameters for the discussion at where the TEAM would rank........so you are confusing your damn self........let's stay within the team dynamic you requested.
3) Yes if the Bills run the ball effectively and Josh Allen scores 11 rushing TD's every 9 games(or even 8 in 7 games if you cherry pick
) then they will probably win a lot of games and people won't notice how far the passing game has fallen off. You clearly didn't notice it last year. A lot of people didn't because they were winning. I don't think 9.2 rush attempts and 1.2 rush TD's per game is a good way to use your franchise QB but I don't see where they added enough talent to win in a different way. Hopefully I am wrong.
4) Ahem.
5) Again, my prediction is that this won't be the WR corps they stick with all season.
But if this is who they stick with, then the likelihood is that McDermott's "complementary football" will have to continue.
And whether you want to call it 7 games(17th in passing yardage for Allen individually) or 9 games(23rd in team passing yards) those numbers are a FAR cry from the top 5-10 you are predicting. Which makes your prediction UNLIKELY. Which is the point. It's not about making baseless gut predictions. It's about what's likely based on the most relevant data we have.
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49 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:
Werent they all nursing injuries tho? I think that's one of the points the show was trying to make.
Jefferson missed significant time with a pulled hamstring and then came back and immediately got hit in the back and was coughing up blood.
Adams separated his AC joint to the point you could see it sticking up through his hoodie.
Even Kittle had to leave the Super Bowl and a most critical time because he couldnt lift his arm.
Deebo had a fracture in his scapula, which can not feel good. And it's not like he didnt take a hard shot from a helmet right into his arm back that broke it. I know he left a couple games, but he didnt miss much time.
These guys take major hits.
I expected that kind of response.
I'm often citing that football is a brutal sport and so many fans on here don't take that into account with their assessments.
But those guys on that show are all usually out there 900-1,000+ snaps.
Except the Deebo.
Who averages just 630 snaps per season for his career and has only exceeded the low 700's once.
And no the few carries from RB aren't the reason.
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A couple takeaways:
1) If I was a Niners fan I'd have Deebo injury fatigue. My impression has always been that the guy comes off the field gimpy every other time he touches the ball and then gets too much credit for being this "warrior" persona when he comes back. We in reality he might just have a lower pain tolerance than a guy like Kittle. Deebo was basically nursing injuries the whole show but having watched all their games they clearly edited out the sheer volume of times he limps off.
2) The Detroit/Tampa playoff footage with short armed Ahmon St Brown showing his frustration/concern about how he couldn't get away from long armed Jamel Dean was footage that people who think Khalil Shakir is going to have no problem moving to an outside WR position should watch. Getting away from these long corners is a huge problem for the short armed, slot-types. Even a gold-standard type like St Brown.
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3 hours ago, Rocky Landing said:
Regarding point 2): The data for ranking WR rooms going into a season, is a lot foggier for some teams than it is for others. It is especially foggy for the Bills for numerous reasons-- Shakir is our only returning WR, the data for the FA WRs comes from other teams, and QBs (far lesser teams, and QBs for most of them), and the way they get used, and who rises in the system is speculatory. I submit that that uncertainty alone will push the Bills WR room ranking down from teams for which the data is more relevant. And if you judge someone like Curtis Samuel on his past performance, without applying the context of the unquestionably better situation he will be entering with the Bills, then it's reasonable to believe he will exceed expectations. That 2020 group of Diggs, Beasley, and Brown, who all had career years with Allen, provide compelling evidence for an optimist like myself.
Regarding point 4): Perhaps I've misrepresented your opinion regarding Shakir, or whomever ascends to WR#1, and the "extra attention" that receiver will attract. Obviously, that will happen. But some on this thread seem to suggest that Khalil Shakir is going to be smothered, or at least receive the same attention that Diggs did. But I don't think it's going to be as significant as all that. Regardless of what personnel is on the field-- 12, 11, or even that jumbo package that Brady seems to love-- there will almost always be four legit receivers on the field, and often five.
But, you're definitely right about one thing: It does all look easier in the offseason. At least, for an optimist like myself. But, for the pessimists around here, it seems to go the other way.
2) Does "foggier" sound like a good situation to be in to you? More treacherous than good, right? And this is about likelihoods. If Curtis Samuel was a proven WR1......and not a guy with 7 years of paltry 37.2 yards per game averages........we wouldn't be having these discussions we'd be looking forward to that player continuing to be dominant. If they had Marvin Harrison Jr instead of Keon Coleman the result would still be "unknown".........like all results within their given range of possibility..........but we sure as heck wouldn't be saying the outlook was "foggy". Just giving examples. We can't expect to get an MHJ........but we can expect Beane to find a WR1. They aren't that scarce anymore.
4) I don't think Shakir will start the season as WR1. He could........but I'd expect the more outside-proven Curtis Samuel to start the season garnering CB1 attention. I expect defense's will find that to be overkill though. He's always been a 3rd WR so putting CB2 on him would probably suffice for good defense's........and the Bills face a lot of them. The bottom line is that difference makers are called that because that's what they do. There is a reason guys who produce double what Samuel does make 3-4x more on the same open market.
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1 hour ago, Mikey152 said:
Which league ranking, exactly, are you referring to?
Which one's do you want? They had by far the best statistics of any WR corps in the NFL 2020.
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11 minutes ago, Behindenemylines said:
We now have the opportunity to get multiple guys open vrs just Diggs. Having more available opportunities should greatly increase odds of success. Now granted if they are all average or less then we have dropped off. If a few are better than average we are better off.
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1 hour ago, Avisan said:
@BADOLBILZ After a quick attempted peek, I'm opting not to dig through months of posts to find your hot take(s) regarding where exactly you expect our passing offense to rank. Since you've said it so many times, taking the 5 seconds to type out 6 characters and hit reply should be pretty trivial.
As I've said many times...........I think Beane is hurriedly seeking a WR1 on the trade market this October. I can't see this being the unit for 17 weeks.
But if you want to know what's most LIKELY if they keep the status quo at WR?
It is more of what we saw under Joe Brady last season.
Obviously.
Which was Allen's worst stretch of passing since before his 2020 breakout season.
The Bills averaged just 221 yards passing as a team per game in the 9 games under Joe Brady.
That would have ranked 23rd in the NFL for the 2023 season.
The 62% completions and 2:1 TD/INT ratio were pretty pedestrian as well.
Facts.
Again, it's not an apples-to-apples comparison but when the weapons got worse the passing game production got pretty-proportionately worse. There are lot's of good QB's, WR's and TE's in the NFL now. You aren't running laps around the more receiver-fortunate just because your QB is better.
I'm not going to predict less than 221 yards per game..........I think Allen is the second best QB in the NFL so hopefully he and Brady squeeze out a little more yards above expected than he could last year from this lesser cast and stay in that range.
But why would anyone expect so much more(5th dare you say?
) than he produced under Brady last year when they've downgraded their WR corps?
I'd love to see it happen. Doesn't track.
I would anticipate them being among the league leaders in rushing statistics though and to perhaps lead the league in rushing TD's if Allen can survive his own 9+ rushing attempts per game. Allen might have to break his own 15 TD QB rushing record to keep the team in the playoff hunt.
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2 hours ago, Avisan said:
Where do you, personally, expect the Bills to rank in terms of offensive passing production at the end of the 2024 season?
Since I've probably answered this a dozen or more times on TSW this offseason and you are new here..........why don't you share your own personal opinion on that.
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1 hour ago, Rocky Landing said:
It's not really an apples to apples comparison, though, to cite how the receivers in 2020 finished the season, and compare it to how this WR room (with all the unknowns they bring) ranks entering the season. I don't know where the 2020, or 2023 corps ranked entering their seasons, but considering that there is only one player returning in 2024 from last season (Shakir), I would suspect that one factor alone would push the ranking down for many analysts, as would the lack of clear data as a whole.
I also believe (and perhaps I'm merely being optimistic here) that this ranking will very likely be higher at the end of the season, than entering the season. Especially if the ranking is for "receiving corps,"and not just "WR corps."
How much higher is, of course, speculation. But, it's not really pure speculation. There is relevant data that we can apply. For example, we can look at Samuel, and the QBs, and offenses he has worked under, and make an assumption that he will produce better with Allen. I'm sure you would say that's an optimistic application of the data, and I suppose it is. But it's not unrealistic. It becomes unrealistic when it is over emphasized.
Conversely, I think you are overemphasizing some of the contrary data-- like how much more Shakir, Kincaid, and/or Samuel will be pressured by the top defenders in any given game because of Diggs' departure. Certainly, that's going to happen, but I do believe that you, and others, have been overstating it.
1) I'm not saying it's an apples-to-apples comparison or conclusive proof I am just saying you can't dismiss out-of-hand that the Bills weapons were among the elite...........which saying "nah" kinda' does. Their WR corps was the most productive and their overall "receiving corps" of WR/RB/TE rank was top 3 in both total receiving yards and TD's. Does a great QB like Allen elevate those players to some extent? Sure, but there were A LOT of other great QB's in 2020. Rodgers, Mahomes, Brady all could have been MVP in addition to runner-up Allen........DeShaun Watson threw for 4800+ yards with an absurd 8.9 yards per attempt, Russell Wilson threw 40 TD passes.
2) It's not very likely that the "WR corps" would rank higher at the end of the season. They are ranked there because that's their expected performance level this season relative to their peers. That's the point. And it is the WR corps.......not the receiving corps. ESPN recently ranked the Bills cast of weapons("sometimes" called a receiving corps) as 24th in the league. Slightly higher because of above average TE and RB group.
3) Correct, there is relevant data. That's what the statistical models are for. There is a whole industry with billions of dollars changing hands........the foundation of which begins with projecting theses guys stats.
4) The reality is that it all looks easier in the offseason. It's far from easy to get open and make plays in the NFL as a receiver. Just like it's far from easy to rush the passer. Or command and control double teams as a NT. Those realities hit drought era Bills fans in the mouth every September for 16 years. What we should be able to admit is that star players command extra attention and that extra attention creates greater opportunity for others. I'm not overstating anything. It's reality. It's a matchup league.
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16 minutes ago, Beck Water said:
I think I wrote reasonably clear English explaining what I meant.
The post to which I responded said, and I quote "Diggs/Davis/Beasley/Brown is a Top 3 receiving corps?"
Receiving corps. Not WR corps.
Like most people here, I'm responding to a specific post (by Avesian), not to "50 pages back".
Thanks
Like I said, we had long since clarified that we were talking about WR's only.
What Avisan was replying to was my post which clearly stated "WR corps". It wasn't a trick question.
And as to whether they had a top 3 group of passing game weapons...............the Bills finished 3rd in reception yardage and 3rd in TD's in 2020.
So maybe........if the receiving corps actually includes all the receiving options and not some arbitrarily drawn line.
The Bills finished 8th in receiving yards last year. I didn't see much objection when the Bills WR's were coincidentally ranked as the 8th best group by PFF at the end of last season.
They have the Bills "WR corps" ranked 27th in their preseason rankings for 2024.
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8 minutes ago, Beck Water said:
So it's kind of a trick statement. It raises the question "what do you mean by a top 3 WR corps?"
If you mean, "had the most top producers at WR":
Diggs was the top WR in the league in 2020. Top in targets, receptions, yards; second to Davonte Adams and Cole Beasley for catch % in the top 32 WR.
Beasley was just outside the top-20 for yards and receptions - 23 and 21 I think.
One can make an argument for KC that year, with Kelce and Hill, beiong the best receiving corps, then the Bills, then Minn with Jefferson and Theilen. Carolina with DJ Moore and Chosen would be up there, and Tenn with AJ Brown and Corey Davis would be in the mix.
If by "top 3 receiving corps" you mean "overall talent in the 3-4 receivers on the field", then "Nah". But there really weren't any dominant Chase-Higgins-Boyd trios that season.What on earth are you talking about with "trick statements" and not being talented in their top 3-4.
Their top 4 were the highest producing WR top 4 in the NFL in 2020.
By a WIDE margin.
And McKenzie's 280+ yards as WR5 dwarfed most good WR corps 4th WR production and was more than some of the better team's top WR corps 3rd WR.
They were among the best no matter how you slice it..............people just seem to forget that it was not very common to have the kind of talent that the better teams have accumulated today.
Also, remember.........we are talking about WR corps here. Not RB's or TE's.
We've established that we are discussing WR's about 50 pages back..........let's not backslide into the "weapons" debate.
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56 minutes ago, Avisan said:
Diggs/Davis/Beasley/Brown is a Top 3 receiving corps?
They WERE.
Like I said.........that unit and the skills they brought to the table then wouldn't stack up as well today though.........after 4 years of major WR talent influx around the NFL.
But it would still be better than what they have now by a considerable margin. Not having a WR1 in today's game is sub-optimal to say the least.
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6 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:
The main question that is still unanswered for me, at least, is: IS Aiyuk that "star weapon (who) creates space for everyone else"?
I don't necessarily trust his ability to fully translate and thrive in a different system, away from Shanny (and that STACKED offensive depth chart). Definitely don't trust it enough to justify the two-pronged price he'll cost (both trade and cap). That's my main objection. So really I'm not satisfied that Aiyuk is a sure enough bet on the field to justify his trade value and long term salary cap impact.
Pretty much everyone else DOES think Aiyuk's expensive juice is worth the squeeze (sorry)?
Aiyuk is even more dominant than Diggs was when they acquired him..........but he wouldn't be my preference because he's a lot like Diggs in that he's built more for the regular season.
My contention since we saw the Chiefs rough up the Bills WR's in the 2020 AFCCG is that their WR corps was built without consideration for the playoffs.
I think the Bills have eventually/gradually identified that and have changed the type of targets they have been looking for.
To me, the better fit for Buffalo would be DK Metcalf. I'm sure statistical models wouldn't project him to be as good as Aiyuk in the regular season over the next few years..........Aiyuk is clearly the more efficient player. But when the refs put the flags away DK has the physicality to excel and he's proven that in the playoffs. I also think his future contract cost could be substantially less than that of Aiyuk........maybe $5M to $8M aav less. He has less contract leverage and his stats say he is more of a high-end "WR1B" compared to Aiyuk in the regular season. His trade value is probably lower because of the regular season projections.
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5 hours ago, Mikey152 said:
You keep talking about 2020/2021 like nothing has changed...
Offense across the league is down since then, especially passing offense and even more significantly passing in the Red Zone. It's a big reason Gabe Davis seemed to regress...Teams started playing more two high and refs started calling less DPI. It was easier to neutralize him.
To me, that was the biggest change going from Dorsey to Brady. Dorsey continued to call plays like nothing had changed, and the only reason we didn't completely suck is because he has the best QB in the NFL on his team. When Brady took over, our efficiency went way down, but we were finally taking what the defense was giving us. I think we realized pretty quick that our roster was not built for more of a possession and YAC game, though. Inconsistent hands and pretty bad ball skills across the board. Right plays, wrong players. Only Shakir looked like a fit. Not a coincidence he is the only WR left. I think Stef could do it, but lets be real...his bread and butter is winning routes against man and making catches downfield. He was never a great after catch guy and most of his drops were on quick passes where LB might be lurking so he isn't trying to work middle zones.
So, like them or not, our new WR do fit what Brady wants to do and the way the NFL is trending better. If we had more money (Stef dead cap) maybe we get a better player than MVS/Claypool as the Vet X, but I think Shakir and Samuel are exactly who they need at Y and Z...guys who make catches and can make things happen with the ball in their hands.
The biggest change for the Bills since 2020?
They had a top 3 WR corps in 2020.
They have a bottom 3 to 6 WR corps now.
Part of that is the Bills letting their WR corps atrophy greatly...........it's not like the 2020 group was a bunch of kids they failed to build thru the draft so they added a bunch of mid-to-late career vets.
The bigger part of their decline in the league rankings is that the league has had a huge influx of WR talent each season.........and that 2020 talent they had might not rank top 12 in today's game.
Defense's all broadly adjusted to taking away big plays because they were getting overwhelmed because everybody suddenly had WR talent.
Offense's have been impacted because they don't execute well enough to string together 10+ play drives without mistakes...........not because defense's have gotten dominant.
So offense's are trying to get MORE playmakers.........guys who can still make plays against defense's that are playing bend-but-don't-break defense.
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26 minutes ago, BuffaloBillsGospel2014 said:
This just seems like a terrible idea to me but I hope I'm wrong.
You are right.
Because "everyone eats" only works if the offense produces enough to feed everyone.
The Daboll Bills had a season with a near record for individuals who scored a TD in a season.
Everyone ATE because they had a superstar WR1 paired with that superstar QB.
Having a star weapon creates space for everyone else.
There just isn't any logic in the idea that they are better off without a difference making star WR.
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5 hours ago, eball said:
Wait-and-see is the only reasonable approach for a fan to take. And predicting good catch numbers for Kincaid and Shakir is hardly pie-in-the-sky thinking.
You just hate optimists and think you have to beat everyone down who doesn't immediately bow to your self-lauded superior football intelligence.
And when some of us ignore you, you resort to personal attacks. You have your little puppies BillsVet and Bill from NYC to come running to your defense. It's hilarious.
I've got no time for your nonsense. I'm sorry we root for the same team. At least I hate the Yankees.
Again, you've never taken a wait-and-see approach. You are synonymous with bad predictions on TSW @eball. You are the gold standard for wrong calls made on this site. And what's worse for your claim to being such a great fan.........you are the physical manifestation of disloyalty by quitting on your Bills season tickets because of the choice to fire Rex and hire McDermott. You can't put that or any of those peanut buttery spirits back in the bottle.
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25 minutes ago, Doc said:
Harty and Sherfield are guys who never produced much before coming to the Bills. I didn't understand the Harty signing given his production, injury history and salary. Sherfield at least was a minimum deal. But Sanders' last season was with the Bills. Meaning he had one foot out the door when they signed him.
OTOH MVS produced almost 700 yards in 2022 with KC before having his targets halved last year and has been a consistent ~550 yard/season receiver. They'll get something out of him. Claypool was producing close to 900 yards with a declining Roethlisberger before (I suppose) bad attitude got him shipped out mid-season in Pgh in 2022 and then again from Chicago in 2023. Joining a winning team and having a full off-season to digest the playbook should help him contribute. Hamler is a complete unknown given his injuries and I'm not expecting much from him. Whether they outproduce their career bests remains to be seen but I fully expect them to significantly outproduce what they did last year.
Like I said, no reasonable observer would have been surprised if MVS or Claypool hadn't found a team yet and they ended up spending the season as vets on a practice squad.
And I mean..........if Emmanuel Sanders had "one foot out the door" after producing a near-career-average 52 yards per game prior to joining the Bills.........then what is MVS when coming off a 20 yard per game season last year? One foot in the grave and another on a banana peel?
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3 hours ago, eball said:
Predicting success for these WRs would be overly optimistic, but it is reasonable to take a wait-and-see approach when the Bills will be operating an offense in which one diva WR won’t demand the lion’s share of targets.
I’m looking at Kincaid, Shakir, Cook, and Samuel to wind up with the most targets. Coleman is likely to be next, in the 40-50 catch range. With that production the Bills’ offense should be fine…do you not agree?
If the Bills get anything out of the MVS/Claypool/Hamler/Hollins mishmash it’s gravy.
1. Wait-and-see is not an approach. It's a lack of any opinion whatsoever. Which is not REALLY the case with you in this post. You have opinions you just don't want to show a logical basis for it.
2. Projecting your 5th target as "likely" to catch 40-50 passes is bold. That probably suggests that one or more of the most targeted players was injured for a big chunk of the season.
Also, why would that production tell me that their offense would be fine? There isn't any necessary correlation there.
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4 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:
I didn't misread that as that was not was I was referring to nor was it even something I read, it was an interview I watched like I watch almost every Beane interview and press conference.
But I can't help but notice you once again deflected away from the main part of the post where you were asked to commit to something. You said Samuels is probably WR1 while also saying you believe Shakir is putting up 900 yards.
So are you going to commit to Samuels putting up more than 900 yards given that for him to be WR1 he would have to at least top Shakir? You are always so keen on people committing to takes, so here is your shot to commit to yours.
OK then it's settled........you were just lying.
Beane never said Coleman was their WR1.
You can't prove it because it did not happen.
As for Samuel being "the Bills WR1" to begin the season........unless they trade for someone else he enters the season as clearly their most accomplished WR.
There isn't a close second.
Numbers assigned to a WR first represent their place in the pecking order within the team........and on a broader scale their place within the league. Some teams ultimately turn out to not have had a WR1............others have multiple.
I do think Curtis Samuel starts the season in Diggs' "Z" position in 3 WR sets and that Samuel and Shakir will most likely be the only 2 WR on the field in 2 WR sets(unless Samuel is being used in the backfield instead of Cook/Davis OR Shakir gets supplanted in the slot by their desire to feed Coleman there).
I also don't think that starting the season as the Bills WR1 will pay dividends for the Bills or Samuel.........if only because it doesn't promise to be a matchup advantage for Buffalo. Samuel has never really been more than a WR3 facing lesser DB's prior to this. It's going to be a big jump in competition and I think eventually Allen will have to turn elsewhere.
But to start the season, yep Samuel is likely the primary WR target. I don't think that was the intention when they acquired him but they weren't aware that they would trade Diggs at that time.
I do think Shakir ultimately will end up leading the team in receiving yardage with a modest number around 900 but at the end of the season he is unlikely to be viewed as a WR1 on the broader scale around the league.
And Kincaid should end up being the most targeted player overall but if he keeps putting up a pathetic 9 yards per catch that would require a near 100 catch season just to even get to 900 yards. I hope he is more productive at gaining yardage and scoring TD's this season but I also believe he might have less room to operate this season because of the lack of threats on the outside to open up the short/intermediate areas.
I think it was totally unnecessary to expand on how Samuel/Kincaid fit in relative to Coleman/Shakir but you asked for it, there it is.
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1 hour ago, YattaOkasan said:
Beasley entering year 8
diggs entering year 6
Brown entering year 6
these players had a LOT of history and they still proved they had more to show.
what is your data to say playing with Allen doesn’t give a bump?
correct they didn’t make big investments for the most part. However Samuel very much was an investment. None of those players were considered world beaters when we signed them and we got good production out of them.
Beasley, Brown and Diggs were all producing when they came to the Bills and were thus valued by the league and expensive to acquire.
MVS, Claypool and Hamler are all dumpster dives coming off bad or lost seasons.
It wouldn't have been a surprise if none of them had found a team by training camp and ended up spending the season on some teams practice squad(as Hamler did last season).
The data about players who didn't get a bump are much more recent and relevant.........the likes of Emmanuel Sanders, Trent Sherfield and Deonte Harty...........all who saw significant declines from their previous "healthy" production after being paired with Allen. Basically EVERY pro personnel WR acquisition following that 2019-2020 stretch. I expect Curtis Samuel will at least break the trend of big drops in production but it wouldn't surprise me if the other 3 didn't do a damn thing for Buffalo this season.
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1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:
Gaslighting? OMG that is rich coming from you haha. FYI: Brandon Beane literally said Keon is playing the "WR1 and X role with some Z" for the Bills...verbatim in one of his post draft interviews. No one spit anything out.
Actually........FYI:
"He can actually play some inside...you know....I think position 1....you know......I think Joe would probably line him up outside as a standard X receiver on the outside".
-Brandon Beane press conf on 2nd round selection Keon Coleman
I will give you the benefit of the doubt that you weren't gaslighting us............but you TOTALLY misread his comments.
He was saying the first position that they'd line him up at was as a standard X.
Nobody assigns numbers to the WR positions. Letters. Letters. Get it straight, dude.
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4 hours ago, BarleyNY said:
Obviously you’re free to use those interchangeably, but it’ll cause unnecessary confusion since they are much more commonly used to mean different things. So it’s on you if people misunderstand you.
As for the rest of your post, I was not arguing any of that. Just pointing out where a misunderstanding might have been.
Since you’ve made a lot of incorrect assumptions about my opinions, I’ll put my take on Coleman here for the record. I was not impressed by his senior season’s tape and had a 3rd round grade on him. That was driven by potential and “wow” moments that made him intriguing. His performance was very inconsistent though and he did not impress on a play-by-play basis. Thus the 3rd round grade.
In general, I very much dislike contested catch WRs as they rarely find success in the NFL. But here’s the thing - on the occasions that they do, they are often among the most elite. Coleman obviously has some special gifts and he is young and still developing. So he’s definitely got a shot at hitting and becoming one of the best WRs in the game. The Bills swung for the fences with him and while my brain tells me the odds favor a miss, it also knows there is the possibility they knocked it out of the park. My heart is certainly rooting hard for the home run.
I think @Alphadawg7 is gaslighting us here.
If Beane had called Coleman the Bills WR1 at any point every Bills podcaster would have had milk come out of their nose in that moment.........whether they were drinking any at the time or had to generate their own.
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I'm really starting to love this WR room. We quietly got better
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
To the highlighted.........do the answers to any of those questions indicate anything one way or another with regard to the likeliness of more positive result? You make it sound rather perilous, actually.
As for this broad "Josh Allen's tide raises all ships" at the WR position notion............we've been thru this........some WR's he's elevated, others he's not. Not saying it's his fault but their performance is still mostly based on what THEY can do for Josh. Other non-free agent or trade acquisitions we don't know because they were drafted by the Bills..........though none of the one's they've drafted for Allen have turned into 1,000 yard receivers or anything close, have they? You want to cherry pick around the failures. That's not good data.