BADOLBILZ

The bottom line is that the passing game fell off significantly under Brady. It was Allen's worst such stretch since 2019. The Dallas game was what it was.........a frustrating statistical game for Allen despite the running game dominating. When you are killing a team like that on the ground you would expect a high completion % or ypa. But no. But even if you remove that Dallas game from the 7 that Brady OC'd in the regular season..........it was still a bad stretch. Just a 62% completion. 9 TD's to 7 interceptions is horrendous. That 6 game output projects to an anemic 26 TD to 20 INT. You are focused on manipulating the data to manufacture a "top 10" result (passing yards per game) when they simply weren't a top 10 passing team under Brady.

They are all just waiting for ME to say it so they can vehemently deny it.

I suppose this is what I get for telling you to distill your takes down. You went from "look at all the receiving weapons who have played with Josh Allen"..........(which is like 50 players).......down to........"no, wait just look at these 3. And only count one season for 2 of those guys."

This is YOUR quote that I replied directly to: "Bottom line, not only is expecting the group to rank higher by seasons end not unreasonable, it’s statistically the most probable outcome based on history of all receivers and weapons that play with Josh Allen." I didn't move the goal post...........you forgot where you put it.

And in those 7 regular season Brady games..........by your own calculations.........Allen produced what would have been the 17th most yards passing per game in the league.

Even if we buy that Keon has the polish to succeed as a rookie..........his projected "X" position makes it more difficult. Guys like Puka and Rashee Rice who finished 4th and 32nd in receiving yards and lead all rookies did what they did mostly playing the slot or just lined up tight to the formation. It's more difficult to be great on the outside as a rookie. Better corners, tougher releases etc.. And in order to get slot chances it would likely have to come at the expense of the Bills NEXT 2 most likely receivers to succeed in Shakir and Samuel. So a success might be robbing one to feed another. Not unlike Kincaid having relative success at the expense of Knox having almost none. They had a whole WR corps full of slot receivers before they went dumpster diving for Claypool and MVS.

The 13 win 2020 is the closest they've gotten to the SB. Don't tell me about the 11 win 2021 team being the one that deserved better, though. The 2021 struggles were reflected in their step back in the passing game. Brown was gone, Beasley got old fast and Sanders fell off quick. When you build a WR corps around vets you can't expect it to last. The Bills expected bargain investments like Davis and McKenzie to grow into starting roles and blossom........they shopped in the clearance aisle for other talent.........and got burned. Which is why they've had to draft for need for weapons with their first pick each of the last 2 drafts.

Yeah, you are cherry picking. What happened to Kelvin Benjamin and Charles Clay? Why did Robert Foster crash to earth in year 2 with Allen? Why hasn't Dawson Knox become a star? Why did Gabe Davis plateau and never really become more effective in his final 3 seasons? Why did Beasley and Brown fail to replicate their ONE career outlier season each with Allen? Sherfield and Harty were supposed to play big roles. Why did Trent Sherfield put up only 86 yards after putting up 417 the year before in Miami. He played over 1/3 of the Bills offensive snaps! The answer to ALL of these disappointments isn't on Josh Allen, IMO. But you can't make one claim without acknowledging the rest. That is cherry picking. Diggs is the only player we can make the argument that Allen has consistently elevated.........and doesn't necessarily mean it's true.........the reality was that he was a prime aged star coming off a near 18 yard per reception season in Minnesota. Look what Cousins did with Justin Jefferson after Diggs!

So in summation...........you said my data was wrong. It was in fact entirely accurate, you just wanted to omit some games and calculate the team ranking using Josh Allen's individual game log stats. Like I said, we can do it either way but I was following your original parameters. But you were wrong in saying that my data was incorrect. And admit it........your heart dropped into your uterus when you realized that even your own 7 game calculation would have projected the Bills to rank a mere 17th in passing yardage for the season. You didn't see that coming. This is my point. People think that they've just always been a top passing team and always will be regardless of who they put around Allen. But, in fact, that distinction stopped when Brady took over and the Bills implemented their "complementary football" approach. And again, my prediction has been that this will not be the WR corps they finish the season with. If it is this group........the likelihood is that they finish in the back half of the league in passing yardage.........sack adjusted or otherwise. That's not to say that they decide they can't run Allen 9 times per game and abandon the winning "complementary football" formula for the sake of his health........and they turn into something like an inefficient 6.5 yards per attempt passing team........which is sort of what happened in 2021 (6.8 ypa) when they tried to keep Allen in the pocket until late season and struggled as a result. Like the 6-3 loss in Jacksonville or a number of other sh!t sandwich passing performances that season.

To the highlighted.........do the answers to any of those questions indicate anything one way or another with regard to the likeliness of more positive result? You make it sound rather perilous, actually. As for this broad "Josh Allen's tide raises all ships" at the WR position notion............we've been thru this........some WR's he's elevated, others he's not. Not saying it's his fault but their performance is still mostly based on what THEY can do for Josh. Other non-free agent or trade acquisitions we don't know because they were drafted by the Bills..........though none of the one's they've drafted for Allen have turned into 1,000 yard receivers or anything close, have they? You want to cherry pick around the failures. That's not good data.

No, let's leave it at "were the 2020 Bills WR's a top 3 WR corps" or not? And the answer is ABSO-F#cking-LUTELY. Do you still disagree? Try to finish what you start. They had by far the most receiving yards of any group of NFL WR's in that 2020 season. I'm not chasing goal posts to help you find an exception that you think proves the Bills should be projected to be where we'd like them to be. You either deal in likelihoods or you go by "feels" and those emotional opinions about what they think will happen aren't a discussion point they are merely a declaration.

Again.........everything is an "unknown". You can't advance a point or be predictive if you dismiss likelihoods in favor of well it's all "unknown". Half the teams in the NFL picked a WR in the first 2 days of the draft for chrissakes. 7 of them BEFORE the Bills. The Bills are by no means unique in regard to having a rookie that they hope could start right away but for some reason this is supposed to be a compelling point of evidence why the Bills are underrated? Because they got the 8th WR off the board? And the 24th "weapons" ranking on ESPN doesn't necessarily imply that ALL of the Bills key players are "not very good"..........it's how they are expected to rank against peers. As I've said many times, the league is absolutely LOADED with talented receiving threats. Look at the actual lists and if you don't know who the opposing players are then look up their production and objectively compare it to things like Kincaid averaging a pathetic 9 yards per catch on a healthy 90 targets and explain to me why it's unrealistic how the Bills targets are being characterized. Also, note that @Rocky Landing says that it's VERY likely that they rank higher. I disagreed. You are attributing his words to me. But the larger point is that there isn't data that suggests it's likely let alone VERY likely. That's all we can work off of. It's not about your offseason "feels".

1) You are forgetting the two home playoff games under Joe Brady. I'm not going to cherry pick because I want as much data as possible to determine the likelihood. Let alone remove dominant, winning results like the Dallas game. That would be asinine. Do we not hope for such games? 2) You are also conflating Josh Allen's individual passing stats(243.7) with team passing stats which subtract sack yardage. You set the parameters for the discussion at where the TEAM would rank........so you are confusing your damn self........let's stay within the team dynamic you requested. https://www.sports-reference.com/blog/2013/10/stat-questions-team-passing-yards-vs-individual-passing-yards/ 3) Yes if the Bills run the ball effectively and Josh Allen scores 11 rushing TD's every 9 games(or even 8 in 7 games if you cherry pick) then they will probably win a lot of games and people won't notice how far the passing game has fallen off. You clearly didn't notice it last year. A lot of people didn't because they were winning. I don't think 9.2 rush attempts and 1.2 rush TD's per game is a good way to use your franchise QB but I don't see where they added enough talent to win in a different way. Hopefully I am wrong. 4) Ahem. 5) Again, my prediction is that this won't be the WR corps they stick with all season. But if this is who they stick with, then the likelihood is that McDermott's "complementary football" will have to continue. And whether you want to call it 7 games(17th in passing yardage for Allen individually) or 9 games(23rd in team passing yards) those numbers are a FAR cry from the top 5-10 you are predicting. Which makes your prediction UNLIKELY. Which is the point. It's not about making baseless gut predictions. It's about what's likely based on the most relevant data we have.

I expected that kind of response. I'm often citing that football is a brutal sport and so many fans on here don't take that into account with their assessments. But those guys on that show are all usually out there 900-1,000+ snaps. Except the Deebo. Who averages just 630 snaps per season for his career and has only exceeded the low 700's once. And no the few carries from RB aren't the reason.

A couple takeaways: 1) If I was a Niners fan I'd have Deebo injury fatigue. My impression has always been that the guy comes off the field gimpy every other time he touches the ball and then gets too much credit for being this "warrior" persona when he comes back. We in reality he might just have a lower pain tolerance than a guy like Kittle. Deebo was basically nursing injuries the whole show but having watched all their games they clearly edited out the sheer volume of times he limps off. 2) The Detroit/Tampa playoff footage with short armed Ahmon St Brown showing his frustration/concern about how he couldn't get away from long armed Jamel Dean was footage that people who think Khalil Shakir is going to have no problem moving to an outside WR position should watch. Getting away from these long corners is a huge problem for the short armed, slot-types. Even a gold-standard type like St Brown.

2) Does "foggier" sound like a good situation to be in to you? More treacherous than good, right? And this is about likelihoods. If Curtis Samuel was a proven WR1......and not a guy with 7 years of paltry 37.2 yards per game averages........we wouldn't be having these discussions we'd be looking forward to that player continuing to be dominant. If they had Marvin Harrison Jr instead of Keon Coleman the result would still be "unknown".........like all results within their given range of possibility..........but we sure as heck wouldn't be saying the outlook was "foggy". Just giving examples. We can't expect to get an MHJ........but we can expect Beane to find a WR1. They aren't that scarce anymore. 4) I don't think Shakir will start the season as WR1. He could........but I'd expect the more outside-proven Curtis Samuel to start the season garnering CB1 attention. I expect defense's will find that to be overkill though. He's always been a 3rd WR so putting CB2 on him would probably suffice for good defense's........and the Bills face a lot of them. The bottom line is that difference makers are called that because that's what they do. There is a reason guys who produce double what Samuel does make 3-4x more on the same open market.

Which one's do you want? They had by far the best statistics of any WR corps in the NFL 2020.

As I've said many times...........I think Beane is hurriedly seeking a WR1 on the trade market this October. I can't see this being the unit for 17 weeks. But if you want to know what's most LIKELY if they keep the status quo at WR? It is more of what we saw under Joe Brady last season. Obviously. Which was Allen's worst stretch of passing since before his 2020 breakout season. The Bills averaged just 221 yards passing as a team per game in the 9 games under Joe Brady. That would have ranked 23rd in the NFL for the 2023 season. The 62% completions and 2:1 TD/INT ratio were pretty pedestrian as well. Facts. Again, it's not an apples-to-apples comparison but when the weapons got worse the passing game production got pretty-proportionately worse. There are lot's of good QB's, WR's and TE's in the NFL now. You aren't running laps around the more receiver-fortunate just because your QB is better. I'm not going to predict less than 221 yards per game..........I think Allen is the second best QB in the NFL so hopefully he and Brady squeeze out a little more yards above expected than he could last year from this lesser cast and stay in that range. But why would anyone expect so much more(5th dare you say?) than he produced under Brady last year when they've downgraded their WR corps? I'd love to see it happen. Doesn't track. I would anticipate them being among the league leaders in rushing statistics though and to perhaps lead the league in rushing TD's if Allen can survive his own 9+ rushing attempts per game. Allen might have to break his own 15 TD QB rushing record to keep the team in the playoff hunt.

Since I've probably answered this a dozen or more times on TSW this offseason and you are new here..........why don't you share your own personal opinion on that.

1) I'm not saying it's an apples-to-apples comparison or conclusive proof I am just saying you can't dismiss out-of-hand that the Bills weapons were among the elite...........which saying "nah" kinda' does. Their WR corps was the most productive and their overall "receiving corps" of WR/RB/TE rank was top 3 in both total receiving yards and TD's. Does a great QB like Allen elevate those players to some extent? Sure, but there were A LOT of other great QB's in 2020. Rodgers, Mahomes, Brady all could have been MVP in addition to runner-up Allen........DeShaun Watson threw for 4800+ yards with an absurd 8.9 yards per attempt, Russell Wilson threw 40 TD passes. 2) It's not very likely that the "WR corps" would rank higher at the end of the season. They are ranked there because that's their expected performance level this season relative to their peers. That's the point. And it is the WR corps.......not the receiving corps. ESPN recently ranked the Bills cast of weapons("sometimes" called a receiving corps) as 24th in the league. Slightly higher because of above average TE and RB group. 3) Correct, there is relevant data. That's what the statistical models are for. There is a whole industry with billions of dollars changing hands........the foundation of which begins with projecting theses guys stats. 4) The reality is that it all looks easier in the offseason. It's far from easy to get open and make plays in the NFL as a receiver. Just like it's far from easy to rush the passer. Or command and control double teams as a NT. Those realities hit drought era Bills fans in the mouth every September for 16 years. What we should be able to admit is that star players command extra attention and that extra attention creates greater opportunity for others. I'm not overstating anything. It's reality. It's a matchup league.

Like I said, we had long since clarified that we were talking about WR's only. What Avisan was replying to was my post which clearly stated "WR corps". It wasn't a trick question. And as to whether they had a top 3 group of passing game weapons...............the Bills finished 3rd in reception yardage and 3rd in TD's in 2020. So maybe........if the receiving corps actually includes all the receiving options and not some arbitrarily drawn line. The Bills finished 8th in receiving yards last year. I didn't see much objection when the Bills WR's were coincidentally ranked as the 8th best group by PFF at the end of last season. They have the Bills "WR corps" ranked 27th in their preseason rankings for 2024.

What on earth are you talking about with "trick statements" and not being talented in their top 3-4. Their top 4 were the highest producing WR top 4 in the NFL in 2020. By a WIDE margin. And McKenzie's 280+ yards as WR5 dwarfed most good WR corps 4th WR production and was more than some of the better team's top WR corps 3rd WR. They were among the best no matter how you slice it..............people just seem to forget that it was not very common to have the kind of talent that the better teams have accumulated today. Also, remember.........we are talking about WR corps here. Not RB's or TE's. We've established that we are discussing WR's about 50 pages back..........let's not backslide into the "weapons" debate.

They WERE. Like I said.........that unit and the skills they brought to the table then wouldn't stack up as well today though.........after 4 years of major WR talent influx around the NFL. But it would still be better than what they have now by a considerable margin. Not having a WR1 in today's game is sub-optimal to say the least.

Aiyuk is even more dominant than Diggs was when they acquired him..........but he wouldn't be my preference because he's a lot like Diggs in that he's built more for the regular season. My contention since we saw the Chiefs rough up the Bills WR's in the 2020 AFCCG is that their WR corps was built without consideration for the playoffs. I think the Bills have eventually/gradually identified that and have changed the type of targets they have been looking for. To me, the better fit for Buffalo would be DK Metcalf. I'm sure statistical models wouldn't project him to be as good as Aiyuk in the regular season over the next few years..........Aiyuk is clearly the more efficient player. But when the refs put the flags away DK has the physicality to excel and he's proven that in the playoffs. I also think his future contract cost could be substantially less than that of Aiyuk........maybe $5M to $8M aav less. He has less contract leverage and his stats say he is more of a high-end "WR1B" compared to Aiyuk in the regular season. His trade value is probably lower because of the regular season projections.