BADOLBILZ

You are just undermining your attempted point when talking about your year-long fluctuations of opinion. You aren't likely to know much better after free agency and the draft.......it just feels that way. I mean MOST free agency signings fail and 1st rounders typically hit at just under a 50% rate.......but you think knowing which teams get which player then is really going to clarify things? Again, if you have one of the truly elite, durable QB's and consistently win and aren't aging out and consistently rank among the less injured teams(contrary to some Bills fans feels) and don't have to do a lot of business in "fail agency" then you are probably one of the best bets. Those are things we know right now.

I kinda' expect it. And watch the verbiage he will choose. Beane will be like "we had an extra second rounder".

I still remember @PromoTheRobot trying to post updates on how terrible Peters was several All Pro seasons after he was traded. The sourest grapes ever.

Me too but I'd say a lot of things didn't go like the Texans planned. And Mixon got $8.5M not $10M as you claimed. And those discrepancies aside......when players reach free agency they get paid based on their past production.............not how the team plans to use them. $8.5M was the cost of doing business and is a far cry from $15M or even $12M when it comes to RB contracts.

Yeah, that's the fallacy. You think you will know better but in reality you won't. You wouldn't know that a Zack Baun will become an NFLDPOY after signing for peanuts. You won't know that a rag tag looking bunch of acquisitions and a rookie QB will lead the Commanches to the NFCCG. The Vikings win 14 games? C'mon even in the preseason people thought they'd have a losing record. You won't know that the Niners will fall apart early and the Lions fall apart late. Most observers didn't think the Bills would be anywhere near as good as they were. The reality is that a bunch of the really good, consistently good, elite QB'd teams are going to finish near the top. The Bills are one of those. So as futile as the exercise is........I like where they start the offseason and doubt that will change much for the worse given their track record and the variables we know of.

C'mon now, Mixon was not just a 2 down guy and he didn't get $10M aav. He was coming off 110 grabs the prior 2 seasons when he signed that deal. If Cook would take that same 3 year extension at $25.5M then I think Beane would probably be all over that whether the contractually obligated Cook has the leverage to pull it off or whether anyone likes it or not. As for Mixon outperforming Cook, that is largely irrelevant because the deal was for what he had been doing. Which was putting up 300+ touch seasons and bringing a physical element to the game on any down.

As much as I hate to see it.......I can see it. And in fairness, Beane's day 2 RB picks haven't been among his worst day 2 picks. Treveyon Henderson would be a particularly fun player and significantly more talented(and a true 3 down back) than Cook. Beane's work in round 2 is on par with what has been 60 years of bad drafting in round 2 for the Bills. Likely having 2 of them again this year.......it might be time to trade them. He can't seem to handle the psychology of round 2. He just picks too needy, IMO. But if you are going to be needy RB's are pretty easy projections and tend to provide better value than RB's picked between pick 11-32. So at least there is that.

If all that it is about is touches you can try to squeeze those numbers in and pretend they equate. But someone has to pick up those blitzes on obvious passing downs that Cook cannot........and it has to be an equally dynamic option when he gets the ball OTHERWISE Cook's lack of ability in that regard becomes liability in his ledger. That's why their snap counts are so much closer than people realize and why Cook is not nearly as valuable as his efficiency on early downs may suggest. That's where a GM has to be smart and not pay a 2 down player 3 down money. When you factor in the gravity/importance of of 3rd downs with their overall 40/60 snap share of 800 snaps......... then why wouldn't Ty Johnson be worth AT LEAST half of what Cook is? I think Cook with his current $5.5M hit and Johnson at a projected $2.5M represent a fair distribution. Cook would get much more on the open market.......which he's not entitled too yet.......simply because he's proven he can handle bulk use. But when you start comparing his bulk use to that of players like Saquon making $12M the value isn't even close.

Do you think you will know more about how it will shake out later in the offseason? Or in the preseason? Other than some additional knowledge key injury issues.......which can still happen at ANY time....you probably won't. Remember when the Ravens were the #1 seed and then added Derrick Henry? They subsequently had a worse record and didn't advance as far. The teams that appear to make more moves or bigger moves won't necessarily come out on top either so you have to take the offseason with a grain like anything else. The Chiefs won a SB after subtracting their best offensive skill player. You could argue that the Bills got better doing the same after subtracting Diggs and like 5 of their captains. Chiefs and Bills made far lesser moves in the offseason than Baltimore and Houston and still sent those teams packing in the divisional round.

Is someone making you come to TBD and open threads about getting the #1 seed? See my message to Beast. Your speculation the day before the opener would have no more validity than making it does today. The preseason favorite the day before regular season kickoff has gone on to win like 2 of the last 20 SB's or something. It's all just entertainment.

Thinking anything you discuss on a message board has anything other than entertainment value is foolish. And here you are thinking that.

Well then, be more specific. Do you mean a team like the Chiefs who has more key free agents hitting the market than Buffalo and already glaring holes at both tackle spots? Or the Ravens with their franchise LT scheduled to hit free agency, Derrick Henry at age 31 and Lamar Jackson having had 2 recent seasons end prematurely due to ankle injuries in his career? Cincinnati with Higgins a free agent and Hendrickson perhaps having to be traded to create room to retain Chase? Of course, things can change. But they can change at any moment of the season as well. We can deal in the known. The Bills don't have much hitting free agency. They should return their entire OL intact. The players in danger of aging out on the Bills roster already largely figure to hold smaller roles next year should they even be retained. Their QB is not only coming off his best year but is the most durable in the NFL. I mean, there is a very realistic scenario where the Bills do nothing in free agency, just draft where they currently stand and still win the AFC next year due to attrition with teams like KC and Baltimore. Knowing that, if they can make some very positive additions, like we hope, they could easily enter the season as the favorite in the AFC.

Yeah but you could say the same about the Bills 4 regular season losses. Baltimore and Houston lost 12 games when it mattered in the regular season. The Bills lost only 3.......but lost to both of them in great part due to timing. The Rams needed perfect timing to align to win against Buffalo. Bills caught them at the absolute worst time. The timing of the draw against the Lions balanced that out. The Patriots only won because it was a meaningless game for Buffalo. Hence, 4 losses. I wasn't one of the people who thought Buffalo was going to struggle last season so the schedule played out in a manner that was fairly predictable. INCLUDING most of the specific games.......like the losses to Baltimore and Houston, who both figured to be better than they actually were in the regular season.

I mean, they didn't get much impact from last offseason's free agent or draft moves, don't have a lot of key players primed to age-out like they had in other seasons and don't have much to lose in free agency..........so why would we anticipate LESS than the team that went 13-3 before letting NE win the finale? 14 wins will probably get you home field or within a game of it. An 8-0 start might be too early to anticipate getting home field advantage throughout........ but it's a message board and we talk about stuff like that. The schedule certainly lines up favorably between the amount of home versus road games and the quality of home opponents versus those on the road(where the Bills lost all 5 of the games that they dropped this season).

It often happens because of the parity in the league.....but it's not a pattern per se. And sometimes those teams that surprise are doing it largely due to a last place schedule of their own. So maybe they go into Carolina next season when the Panthers are 9-7 or something........that record might not reflect their ability to matchup with the Bills. And, of course, sometimes teams projected to be bad just stay bad. The tangible point that the OP hasn't mentioned is that the Bills get 9 home games this season. They had 9 road games last season. One of those 9 in 2025 could be at a neutral site.......but those will happen for every team every 2-3 years........and despite their experience in England a couple of years ago, I'd rather play at a neutral site than have the 9th game be against the most dominant team in the NFC like it was this past year. It looks like a favorable setup for the Bills to finally get the #1 seed this season.

Oh I agree with the concept that you ABSOLUTELY want more efficiency per play over bulk mediocrity. I absolutely don't want a Najee Harris eating up touches inefficiently. That's why you split up the job between 3 non-"bell cow" types like Cook, Davis and Johnson. For all Ty Johnson does, including playing ST's and pass blocking efficiently, if Cook is worth $15M on 485 snaps then how is Johnson only worth $2.5M on 429 snaps(over 300 on offense)? Both are remarkably efficient at what they do........but Johnson a bit more, fwiw. It can't be both ways........Cook can't be worth 6x more using your rationale.

Well if you read the brief article I provided which illustrates said data.......then it should be fairly obvious that if you doubt the information you should provide your own.

Tre White isn't under contract to the Ravens. His deal with the Rams was one year and that's over. I could see a situation where he comes back as veteran depth but hopefully that would be after the comp pick formula date passes and the deal were for a very small amount. Of course I was stunned by the ridiculous $10M contract the Rams gave him and he, not surprisingly, played terribly.

Hopefully he can stay on the righteous path with a p#ssy magnet like the Chevy Traverse.

I was thinking more about Tyler Wade. That guy has never seen a breaking pitch bounce at his feet that he could resist swinging at but he can run like nobody's business out of the left handed batters box. There are a lot of Billy Hamilton type guys that this would benefit but few of them swing at 55 foot curveballs like Wade so have more to gain.

Yeah it's not random from my lesser experience either. Once I knew it was sprung I could feel that instability with sudden head movements. That was totally unexpected to me. I'd never felt my brain moving in my skull before that.

Guys drop out of the league from concussions all the time. Andrew Luck and Luke Kuechly were both trending toward first ballot HoF before concussions did them in. Luck had 5 over the course of 3 years. I like my chances of replacing a good zone CB greater than replacing that $60M to $90M in cap space. They found Benford in the 6th round to replace Tre White. You pay scouts to avoid having to risk that kind of money.

Efficiency does not matter more than production. C'mon now, don't be ridiculous. You can't be more efficient than Mike Gillislee in 2016. He literally lead the NFL in yards per carry AND(despite the contradictory nature of the 2 stats) 3rd down conversions of 2 or less in 2016. AND he scored 9 TD's on 110 touches versus Cook's lesser % of 18 on 239. MG also had 5.7 yards per touch that season versus 5.3 for Cook last year. And he and Karlos had been just as efficient the year before. Karlos had 9 TD's on like 104 touches and he averaged 5.6 versus MG's also absurd 5.7 in 2015. 2 years in a row MG did that 5.7. He was ascending too, right? Didn't mean he or Karlos were worth top RB pay. I mean, what do you think Ty Johnson is worth if Cook is worth $15M? Ty Johnson averaged almost 16 yards per catch and 8.4 yards per touch and 5.2 yards per carry. Those numbers are astronomical AND he rushes for 4.6 yards per carry for his career and can actually pass block. And for his career he's almost 6 yards per touch. More than Jim Brown averaged. He's a human highlight reel on his 390 touches. If efficiency means more than production than I guess give him $15M too.

No, it's graphed as age related decline as well. It's proven to be a bad gamble betting on RB's over age 26, regardless of mileage. The wall for some of the best might be 30 but for most the decline is significant at 27. I tend to use mileage more with regard to entering the league. Like I remember telling all the Breece Hall enthusiasts that the dude had already burned a lot of his miles in college. Cook isn't the physical presence that Hall was at his size though. When Cook loses a tick of speed/quickness......that could be catastrophic. He has average contact balance, is not a smart player, is not physical enough to block the blitz effectively if he WERE smart enough to be relied upon.....and he has surprisingly sketchy receiving skills.

Concussions aren't random. It wasn't random that Benford got them in back-to-back games. The first one was the primary cause of the second one. Morse stopped getting them when he changed behavior and became less physical of a blocker. Eric Wood made a similar alteration to his game at center after breaking his leg and tearing his ACL when playing hard instead of smart. He went from a tone setting brawler to a guy who had to play angles and block edges of defenders to survive. That's why he was trash in Marrone's man blocking run game. But back to Benford........once you've rung that concussion bell to the point that Benford has......they become easier to get. Think of it like a sprained brain stem. If you badly sprain a joint it's easy to re-sprain that joint for a long time. Having had a very bad one, I know. And Benford is not a Center playing in closed quarters most of the time.......he is going to have to tackle runners at high speed in the open field and he is going to be the victim of high speed friendly fire at the tackle point. If you recall, the last concussion Morse had was a blitzing LB hitting him at high speed. Not your typical interaction at center. As messed up as Benford was after that second brain injury there is no chance I am extending him. That could quickly turn into a full waste of all guaranteed money.