BADOLBILZ
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Posts posted by BADOLBILZ
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4 hours ago, eball said:
I understand your points. I guess I just see them using the short passing game as an extension of the run game, rather than actually running it more.
Which is what they did in the second half of last season. Which resulted in a much less effective Josh Allen as a passer. But they won more. This is why McDermott is going that route. I think they have come to a bad conclusion and that the REAL reason they won was because they used Allen like Cam Newton in the mid-2010's.
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1 hour ago, 2003Contenders said:
I think these are very fair points.
I will say, though, that if you dig a little deeper into the regular season games, the disparity in passing opportunities is not as different during the Dorsey-called games (the first 11 weeks) versus the Brady-called games (after week 11).
Josh averaged 34.7 passing attempts in the games in which Dorsey was the OC. He averaged 32.8 pass attempts in Brady's games. I don't think that 2 pass attempts per game is overly significant, especially when you consider the extremity of the Dallas game when he only attempted 15 passes because the Bills were running at will against the Cowboys. If you take that game out, then Josh averaged 36.4 passing attempts in the other Brady games. So, I don't believe that the team necessarily went run-crazy after Brady took over.
That said, Josh's passing production certainly declined, as his completion percentage dropped from 69.63% (261 yards per game and 7.52 yards per attempt) under Dorsey to 60.41% (238.5 yards per game and 7.26 yards per attempt) under Brady. There could be many reasons for that: Josh's injury, Diggs' decline, bad weather late in the season, etc. It is worth noting that Josh's average completion was actually HIGHER under Brady at 12.025 yards per completion versus the 10.808 he had under Dorsey last season. So the notion that the offense was more dink-and-dunk under Brady is also a myth.
While I must acknowledge that the team does not have anyone on the team that is currently capable of replacing Diggs' overall production -- it may not be so hard to replace the minimal production he provided in Brady's tenure at OC. I am hopeful that Shakir and Kincaid will continue to improve -- and that Coleman, Samuel, and some combination of Claypool/MVS/Hollins/Knox/Cook (even R. Davis) will collectively pick up that slack.
I believe (or hope) that a healthy Josh with a full off-season in Brady's desired offense with better complimentary receivers will result in more consistent results. If Josh can get the completion percentage back up to close to 70%, then even with the slightly fewer passing attempts we saw under Brady last year, we would be looking at something like 390/558 attempts for 4648 yards.
Bottom line: those 500+ attempts have to go somewhere. Here's my stab at guessing the distribution...
Kincaid 100 targets, 82 receptions, 750 yards
Shakir 85 targets, 70 receptions, 900 yards
Samuel 75 targets, 65 receptions, 600 yards
Cook 65 targets, 52 receptions, 500 yards
Coleman 60 targets, 45 receptions, 585 yards
Knox 40 targets, 28 receptions, 225 yards
MVS 40 targets, 25 receptions, 370 yards
Claypool 30 targets, 21 receptions, 294 yards
R. Davis 20 targets, 15 receptions, 100 yards
Hollins 20 targets, 13 receptions, 180 yards
That gives us a total of 383 completions for 4504 yards-- with the other 7 going to non-regular receivers (Gilliam, Ty Johnson, Morris and possibly a tackle-eligible lineman).
I would love for Shakir to elevate to a 1000+ receiver, but I am just not ready to predict that yet. Most of his quality production late last year was a product of a ridiculously high percentage of converted targets, which I don't think is sustainable over the course of a full season, especially with no Diggs to draw coverage away. I am not even going to guess at the TD numbers, but I expect Josh to pass for about 30 again with possibly a few of those redzone TD runs of his becoming passes this year instead, given the surplus of big-bodied receivers.
Bold prediction: despite the relatively low reception and yardage totals, Coleman will lead the team with 9 TD receptions.
Anyway, that's my story and I am sticking to it. 🙂
Agree about Brady. They didn't turn to ground and pound. They were throwing more underneath and gaining some more YAC. But they had already begun that process with Dorsey in the Tampa game. Brady didn't re-invent anything. He continued the adaptation Dorsey had started. What changed was that McDermott took the reigns off of the OC by allowing Brady to use Allen with reckless abandon in the run game. Prior to hiring Brady they were trying HARD to avoid those hard miles.
But what you are projecting would be the most efficient passing season in NFL history.......78%.....obliterating Drew Brees single season record of 74%. completions.
Josh Allen is a 63% career passer, fwiw.
The point I've been trying to make is that the current cast of receivers the Bills have are traditionally much less snap/route production efficient compared to their predecessors.
Curtis Samuel produced 1.5 yards per route run last season. Stef Diggs produced 2 yards per route run(which was down from 2.87 in 2022)
You can find these and other enlightening efficiency numbers at: https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/stefon-diggs/
Even going from 2 to 1.5 is a huge difference in bulk production over the course of a season worth of targets. If Samuel could even hold up to or maintain his productivity at that volume, which is unknown.
Assuming more work won't be less efficient........in order for the Bills to match last year's bulk production in the passing game they would likely have to run A LOT more plays.
So start off with 383 completions. At 63% complete that would require 608 targets.......not 535.
Now factor in that these guys are likely to be 20% to 40% less efficient per route run..........and the amount of targets needed gets insane.
Hence, the simple conclusion is that we should expect a big drop in bulk passing game numbers. The alternative would look like throwing 50 times per game to try to put up what Allen could do with Diggs/Brown/Beasley in 35 pass attempts. That won't work. Obviously.
Expect a greater emphasis on running the ball.......burning the clock.......and shortening games.
The numbers tell us to expect Allen to have his least impressive passing season since either 2019 or maybe even since 2018.
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33 minutes ago, eball said:
17 x 250 = 4250. I think that is the floor for Josh's passing yards this season. I'm guessing he'll wind up around 4600.
Unlike others, I don't see the Bills trying to run more. They want to be able to run when they need to, but everyone knows you score through the passing game.
Are you expecting Ken Dorsey to return so Allen can throw for 250+ yards 60% of the time?
Under Joe Brady.......Allen had 250 yards passing just 3 times in 9 games(7 regular 2 post).
Including only once in the last 7 games.
And it wasn't just for a lack of attempts.........he threw the ball 42 times in KC for just 233 yards and then finished the season with 39 attempts for just 186 yards against KC.
Unless a true All Pro WR emerges from their group they will almost certainly HAVE TO run the ball more than they did overall last season to achieve similar results.
This means more clock control.......less possessions.......less yards per play........less yards passing.........and less yards per game and probably less points per game.
It's pretty easy to see that this is what McDermott has in mind. You aren't going to add together two lesser players to share a position and have them match the efficiency of Diggs. It's not like a left/right platoon in baseball. Just look at Mahomes last season.......his passing yardage dropped by 1,000 yards from 2022 due to early season uncertainty and down years from Kelce and MVS.
McDermott wants "complementary" football. An offense that burns clock and scores 20+ and keeps his defense fresh so it can allow less than 20.
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Yeah that's the "in aggregate" "stop the run with numbers" mindset.
The reality is that the reason that "difference makers" make-a-difference is because they produce both volume AND do it more efficiently(less snaps or routes run needed).
It's easy to just say "Curtis Samuel and Chase Claypool will produce this many yards".
The problem is........Diggs is a career 8.5 yards per target guy.
Samuel and Claypool are around 7.1 yards per target in their career.
That's why they aren't stars.
So to produce the same combined yardage they gotta' run more routes and play more snaps than Diggs did to do so.
Same problem with replacing Gabe Davis with Coleman and MVS.
MVS is less efficient than Gabe over his career and coming off a real downer that actually indicates he may be washed altogether.
Coleman had a horrible 1.74 yards per route run in college last season. Guys like Malik Nabers and Marvin Harrison averaged more than TWICE that.
To further put that in perspective, Tyreek Hill averaged 3.87 yards per route run in the actual NFL last year.
At the same time as expecting miraculous efficiency from WR's who haven't proven that ability..........you have the Buffalo Bills setting team reception and yardage records at the TE position...........with 2 different players.
Which likely would require more 12 personnel..........and subsequently LESS 3 WR sets.
Nod if you guys are understanding the reason for skepticism yet.
You are predicting 17 game numbers that would probably take THESE guys 21-22 games to produce.
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3 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:
I'm not sure if you're refuting me but I actually agree with everything you say here.
My point was that I don't think we can accurately predict Samuel's production with the Bills going forward because he had a low catch percentage in the past. I don't think catch percentage is the most predictive stat. And it neglects the "surrounding talent" which influences even something like this.
Most people's first exposure to "statistics" in education is learning about "probabilities".
That's what we are talking about this time of season.
What's probable.
Could Samuel blow out a knee and produce zero yards? Sure.
Could Samuel exceed his career averages? Sure.
But he's MOST LIKELY to produce near his career norms.
This gets lost on people, like the OP, who instead presume the unlikely outcome.
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41 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:
There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.
Statistics are not effective measures of individual talent in the NFL.
For example, Passer Rating was invented to measure how good QBs are. Josh Allen was 16th in Passer Rating last year. According to statistics, Brady would be a fool to build his offense around such a mediocre QB.
Well Allen wasn't very efficient as a passer in 2023. In great part because his weapons weren't up to the task.
What stat claims to tell you anything that doesn't take into account surrounding talent?
In 2020 Allen was 4th in passer rating because he had better receiving talent.
So there.
There also are other stats that take into account more of the things that Allen does.
Josh Allen was 3rd in NFL QBR in 2020 and 2023. Second in 2022.
I mean just because you don't know enough statistics and cherry pick a more narrow statistic doesn't mean that there aren't those out there which illustrate what a player means to their team/league.
In 2023 Purdy and Prescott were only ahead of Allen because those teams had better skill around them. Having WR's who had seasons like Aiyuk and Ceedee Lamb will do that.
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2 hours ago, PBF81 said:
What's funny about this discussion is that everyone argued the same about Harty and Sherfield last season. Wash/rinse/repeat.
Yep.
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14 hours ago, JerseyBills said:
Lets just start with the top 5 WRs, Bills just dropped a video yesterday or the day before , so pretty much confirmed our top 5..
Last year This year
Diggs Coleman
Davis Samuel
Shakir Shakir
Harty Hollins
Sherfield MVS
There's obviously a huge question mark with Coleman, as with any rookie WR but should be dynamic in this O.
I'm huge on Shakir, I really think he's going to be a stud this year and eclipse 1k yards.
Huge fan of Samuel, he does it all, you can put this guy anywhere, including the backfield and he's explosive and makes plays and that was on a terrible O with terrible QB play. Skys the limit, loved the signing.
Hollins is interesting but he's an elite run blocker , which Brady has shown, we're running the ball, bottom line , and not a great year statistically last year but I could see him having his 22 season where he put up 57 rec 690 yards 4 TDs. This was Gabe his first 2 years and this is his replacement for much cheaper. Plus he's a certified leader..
MVS , yes the drops and statistically wasn't great in the regular season but you can argue he's the reason KC won the SB. In our game he had 62 yards, 17 more yards than Kincaid who was our top guy w 45 yards. Would've loved to have him in January last year. Made huge big , long catches. Meanwhile Diggs is dropping wide open TDs which win us that game..
And at 6 , Claypool, Hamler, Shorter etc will fight it out
Bottom line , this is a much deeper WR group. Harty/Sherfield were busts, they were awful. And with Gabe injured vs KC, it showed how weak our depth was. No offense, but I never want to see Andy Isabella playing in a playoff game and that won't happen again with the depth added. Sherfield/Harty also had no business being out there.
Obviously Coleman is a huge key to this group and puzzle but I see no reason he can't be the guy we expect him to be. Plus Kincaid year 2. Cook year 3. Upgraded RB room
This is going to be a fun O to watch. Probably the best we've seen with Allen because of WR depth, elite RB/TE and Brady calling plays
*Not to crap on Diggs, I really admire his game and intensity, I have him as my profile picture but the fact that Beane ate 30+ mil and took a future 2, clearly they thought he was just to disruptive in the locker room, as a leader. The Cincy game leaving his teammates, as a captain, speaks volumes.
McBeane has built this team on family and doing your 1/11th on o and d and Diggs just didn't fit that culture. Good luck but good riddance
Give us your projected receiving numbers for this dynamic new group if you are so confident.
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12 hours ago, Beck Water said:
I dunno about college, but players pay for the jerseys they exchange. It's not free laundry to them.
Your right to "all the feels" about how meaningless it is, other fans and players right to value memorabilia, frame their favorites and keep them in their family rooms etc.
And my counterpoint is that jerseys are often "more than free" because they are paid for jersey sales. Which never occurred to you when you were hand-wringing about out-of-pocket as if it were like you swapping workwear with someone.
You are just like @UConn James and lot's of other fans who don't realize how much money some of these guys generate by these zero-effort needed licensings.
Even the rank and file whose jerseys aren't sold get a small cut of total jersey sales.
Has nothing to do with memorabilia. The public jersey trades are just lame and often in poor taste after one player just took an L. If it's not for show, do it in private.
You disagree? That's fine. Love it all you want. But don't tell me it's some noteworthy financial outlay. That's just being absurd for the sake of being contrary.
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36 minutes ago, UConn James said:
Jerseys, footballs, helmets, etc. are not free for the players to take personally. They pay the team for them / it comes out of their check. And the on-field uni stuff is more expensive than even fan “authentic” items. I’m not sure how it works for colleges.ESPN: Derrick Henry holds off on jersey swaps because of cost | November 2023
So we will pretend that his then $10M salary for playing wasn't enough to render such potential cost irrelevant.
I'm sure Henry's "can't swap jersey because it costs $300 so I gotta wear this one to threads" excuse comes off rather lame to his fellow players who know he makes 6 figures(or even 7 figures some seasons) in NFLPA licensing annually (much of that from his personal jersey sales).
He's getting paid for his jerseys........Henry might see a nice spike there this year with his team change.
Dude just doesn't want to swap jerseys. It's a good excuse. Good for him, it's lame.
In Tom Brady's last season he made almost $10M in NFLPA licensing money.
Fans don't hear about those earnings. They aren't part of their "salary".
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10 minutes ago, Beck Water said:
Would you say that about a different jersey exchange between two athletes?
We should.
In general, public jersey exchanges are lame and self-aggrandizing.
"Here's some free sh!t the team gave me to wear now give me your free sh!t. We know each other!"
Just take a selfie and keep your free laundry.
The Kiko one was a REAL human interest story.
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49 minutes ago, die hard bills fan said:
I thought this was pretty cool.
My teenage daughter is a big Iowa fan, and I watched a lot of their games. Martin is a good player, and I hope she does well.
I couldn't care any less about women's college basketball/sports so I don't find this pedestrian same-school interaction cool like a girl-dad of a fan of that women's college basketball team..........but I support your right to think so and post it in the football section because it's about a Bills player.
More interesting and relevant with regard to the Epenesa football family(IMO) is that there is another Epenesa brother on his way to major college football:
4 star recruit. AJ has been making the rounds with him to the schools of interest.
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12 hours ago, Sierra Foothills said:
@Weatherman called him a 1st round draft prospect... not a first rounder.
So your sharpshooting is off the mark.
As far as my comment about "matter of degree" which you seem to be trying to sharpshoot as well... are you saying that the criticism of the Coleman pick isn't more than normal for the team's first draft pick? Because that's what I'm saying.
That's certainly what I'm hoping for. But I'm not pretending to know how it'll all turn out.
@Weatherman and @Magox just forgot that he wasn't a first round pick.
Nor did any NFL team have a first round grade on him.
So let's not hyperbolize his status as a prospect.
He was well within the next tier of day 2 prospects.
Just because 150+ different players appeared as first rounders in various mocks in the 12 months prior to a draft doesn't mean we should consider them all first round talents.
See Van Pran Granger as a specific example. Mocked as a first at times........went in the 5th.
As for your take.........you simply protest far too much about his treatment.
Coleman has gotten a TON of hype from the media and fans. He was literally and figuratively painted as Diggs successor.
Beane basically called him their starting X receiver and fans are expecting him to become WR1 right-quick.
So yeah, there are going to be stronger reactions than to "first round prospects" like Kincaid, Elam or Rousseau who weren't being asked to immediately replace superstar production.
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6 hours ago, Rampant Buffalo said:
I watched a video of every pass attempt for Coleman for the 2023 season. Once I'd finished, my gut level reaction was, I'd never want to take a guy like this before the 4th round. Even then, I'd say, "Well, this is a weak draft. I have to use my 4th round pick on someone. May as well be him. I . . . guess?"
I was pretty down on Coleman as a 1st or 2nd round prospect. I'd been following his game since he hit the transfer portal after 2022. I wanted the Bills to pass altogether on him because they don't/didn't need projects. That said, I know he has a good deal of potential. But I just don't see it being accessible enough early in his career. As Kollman says in this video........they've compiled a room full of slot receivers. A washed up version of MVS coming off a 300 yard season despite the most opportunity he's had in his entire career? That isn't very intriguing either, IMO.
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16 minutes ago, PBF81 said:
How do you think he'll perform for us?
Eventually I think he could be very good.
But everything points to him being a project.
20 years old, doesn't get separation, doesn't catch contested passes well and has not even produced a single big season on the college level........but is also being asked to play the toughest WR position instead of being eased in at a spot where he can get free releases etc?
That is not the scouting report of a player who fans should realistically expect to excel early in their career but Beane is apparently f#cking sold that it's all good from the get-go.
I've used the Davante Adams comp. Adams is a similar big, physical, coordinated and springy WR without exceptional speed but with exceptional hand talent.
Davante Adams was much more polished and productive than Coleman at the college level.........but Adams was just a guy putting up very modest numbers his first couple seasons in the NFL. That despite having an All Pro QB feeding him the ball. And it really took him until year 5 to become one of the league's elite..
The odds that he becomes Adams-level are not great obviously, but that's his ceiling IMO. But if it doesn't happen for him quickly it complicates matters because the Bills will feel compelled to invest heavily in other solutions for WR1.
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15 minutes ago, Sweats said:
And basically, i'm not at work to make friends......i have enough friends, i don't need more.
I don't really care if people at work like me or not. I sleep good at night knowing i'm good at what i do and i get these projects done, on time and on budget.
I don't come onto these projects to babysit, be friends, sympathetic, compassionate, etc......i get contracted to complete the project and move onto the next one.
Having marital problems?.......don't care
Going through transgender transgressions and inner turmoil?........don't care.
Someone close to you just died?.........don't care.
Am i a big raging dick at work?.......oh, probably and i don't care......show up every day and do your job.
(on a side note)......on one project, i had a guy sh** on my desk.........bwahahahahahahahahaha
That's a completely true story right there.
Maybe, just maybe......the problem is me........and i don't care.
Yeah they had you pegged and got in your head. You immediately thought it was an invasion of privacy when they probably couldn't care less what's in your journal. If they were actually snooping and cared what was in your journal they would been discreet about it so they could do it again.
Gotta' give it a week or two and then set a trap. Like put something on your desk they'd feel compelled to f#ck with and cover it with some sh!t that will get all over them and they'd have difficulty getting off or rig it so it causes a scene when moved etc.. Gotta' be a kind of ink that is only activated by oil on the skin or something like that.
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52 minutes ago, Magox said:
Keon Coleman has been the most polarizing 1st round draft choice for Bills fans since Josh Allen. Not to that degree but more so than any of the 1st round player selections since Allen.
Again.
NOT a first round pick.
8th WR off the board.
Some of you act like this is comparable to using the 7th pick in the draft on the 3rd QB selected(who was at times over the prior 12 months was considered the potential #1 overall pick).
Or that fans should believe that Coleman will put up WR1 numbers as a rookie.
Coleman has not been met with exceptional skepticism given how many WR were selected before him and where he ultimately came off the board.
People just expected the Bills to be more pro-active in addressing WR1. Didn't happen.
Nothing suggests Coleman is ready for that, particularly if being placed outside at X instead of how the Chiefs used similarly ranked prospect Rashee Rice as more of a big slot receiver last season.
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1 hour ago, Sierra Foothills said:
It's a matter of degree.
The negativity surrounding this pick is higher than normal... perhaps even Josh Allen level.
It's a matter of degree in your head.
A team that desperately needed a WR1 got the 8th WR off the board.
Expectations are lower than a typical first rounder? (which he wasn't, btw)
You don't say!
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3 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:
How good is that really?
He's averaging a little over 8 sacks a year as their #1 DE. I'd rather just see what AJE can do in an expanded role.I want to see what AJE can do as well but regardless of how well he plays he is only going to get between 40%-60% of the snaps.
I don't think a trade for a DE is even on the table until the deadline unless there were a number of injuries or if their pass rush was terrible thru the first 5-6 games(which is unlikely as they return most of a unit that put up 50+ sacks).
They have like 6 DE that they hope will play well enough to make the 53 at this point. Only 5 probably will. As long as none of the top 3 get hurt they will probably try to make do with what they have.
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I have a friend who is in management for a major fabrication/construction company and he finds a lot of the people who work under him to be worthless as employees/team members but there isn't a lot he can do about it in many cases.
So he pulls little pranks on them. Nobody on the job knows about it. Nobody.
One such thing is exactly like what you described having been done to you.
It drives them nuts. They come to him and he pretends to be sympathetic and will look into it, etc..
Another one is if they leave their cell phone behind he will move it slightly and wad up a little candy wrapper or something and put it by the phone.
If they really piss him off he will put some grape skins or something in the hollow arm of their desk chair so fruit flies just seem to randomly appear and they can't figure out how to get rid of them.
So, basically, maybe someone just thinks you are a d!ck and is f#cking with you.
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7 hours ago, GunnerBill said:
Taron was Beane. He was 2018. 2017 was White, Dawkins and Milano. But agree that 2017 draft was a cornerstone draft and then they got Allen and Taron the next year. If every draft class was finding talent like those two did we'd have a Superbowl by now. But to an extent it is @BADOLBILZ's point. It is easier to draft well when everything is a need because you can genuinely let the board come to you.
Yeah I think it is such an under-rated topic. Lot's of GM's come flying out of the blocks in the draft during re-sets. Completing and then replenishing the roster with difference makers is a very different matter. It's easy to fall into trying to stay competitive by filling-in around your stars. The 1990's Bills were a prime example of some GM's who were using the "can't go broke making a profit" mantra in the draft. Most years they'd pick some high floor/low ceiling or lower value position in round 1. RB's and DB's were that kind of low hanging fruit. For most of their history half or more of their 1st round picks had come from those two position groups.
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59 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:
When was that?
His best season ever was 12.5 sacks in his second year.
He's played a complete season 3 of his 8 years.
He's missed over half the season in 3 of his 8 years.
The other two seasons he missed 5 and 6 games.
He's a B+ player when he's healthy playing at his absolute best.1) but he's got almost 70 career sacks at age 28
2) But he's played 8 seasons at 28. Mack, for example had only played 6 seasons thru age 28.
3) and 4) True. It's the issue. But if you got 10-11 sacks and 7 forced fumbles for $8M you'd be thrilled as a GM. Joey Bosa did that as recently as 2021. Then the acquiring team gets the option to keep him at $13M for 2025 going into his age 30 season.
Wait til you see the salaries for pass rushers in the offseason of 2025. You aren't getting much for the money he's on the books for.
I'm not saying he'd be my target. I'd rather rent Khalil Mack. But if the price was right I could see a team trading a 3rd rounder for him.
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2 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:
Maybe the most overhyped EDGE in the league. When the dude isn't hurt, he's often getting bullied. I wouldn't take him over prime Jerry Hughes.
He's always been really good when he's healthy. With him, that's the only real issue. He is only entering his age 29 season. It wouldn't be too surprising if he put up 50+ sacks over the next 5 years and finished with HOF level sack numbers. Sometimes guys figure out how to stay healthier later in their careers.
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Khalil Mack is the much more tradeable defensive end on the Chargers.
Mack's base salary is league minimum $1.225M and it's his walk year.
He makes a ton of sense for any contender looking for pass rush help if Harbaugh is looking to acquire draft capital before the deadline.
Mack should bring second round value if he continues playing like he did last season.
For $8M base salary the Chargers might as well keep Bosa and hope he gets right and then they have him under contract for $13M in 2025.
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Yardage Predictions for Bills Receivers in 2024
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
I think your contention that the WR are going to produce like that while the TE room is going to set Bills all-time single season records is what's lacking context. So, incredibly unlikely.
I am glad you started this thread because it gives us the chance to be real about the numbers.
And yeah I heard the "Josh Allen tide raises all ships" argument last spring about Sherfield and Harty.
Beane was going to show me and the doubters.
How'd that work out?
As I accurately predicted using simple statistical analysis.........they produced like they had normally produced in their careers.
Their single outlier seasons remained outliers.
This is because in most cases receivers play to their typical statistics. Curtis is likely to fall around 1.5 YPRR. He's been in the high 1's as a low mileage guy early in his career and also sub-1 a couple times. 1.38 in 2022 and 1.5 in 2023......sounds about right.
Not every modest producer is just limited by the ball distributor.
One of the reasons the people who make money on statistical analysis like YPRR is because context is overrated with regard to that stat.
There are extremes, sure.
Josh Gordon produced a top 5 All-time WR season with one of the worst QB'd teams in recent NFL history. Then he disappeared from sight even with Brady and Mahomes throwing to him.
It can go either way but that's not the norm.
If you want to cling to the hope that Chase Claypool will choose violence for one season(in hopes of scoring a new deal) that's a very long shot with some Josh-Gordonesque merit.
But expecting a lot from these receivers while also expecting record production from Bills TE's? C'mon bro. Where's the context? How are you getting these guys all these snaps? It's make believe.